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Digital Foundry's evidence-based analysis on Xbox Cloud potential

you're probably right. I just think it's messed up to FIRE the guy over getting annoyed that people were dissing shit that his company is forcing everyone to accept anyway. I don't think his crime was really befitting the punishment. Ah well, not important... unless you're Adam Orth.



we can only hope enough pushback happens to make them second guess...

Its likely they wanted to introduce the facts in a controlled environment their way and the Adam Orth Fiasco was bad publicity that they wern't prepared to control.
 
Does anybody have this graph without the clouds?


mw897ul.jpg
 

mclem

Member
Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. Watch_Dogs wants to have a city full of simulated people. With the cloud, that might actually be possible. You could have AI threads for every single person.

And with a network outage, suddenly you're playing Time Enough At Last: The Game.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Its likely they wanted to introduce the facts in a controlled environment their way and the Adam Orth Fiasco was bad publicity that they wern't prepared to control.

seems they couldn't release the information in a controlled way even WITH Adam Orth out of the picture lol
 

PJV3

Member
The cloud is ultimately as disappointing as a Wonderbra, but with none of the visual excitement.

If I had the skills I would photoshop a couple of Xs into the Hello boys advert.
 

twobear

sputum-flecked apoplexy
Orth's comments absolutely should not be understood as confirmation of always online. I don't get what people have found difficult to swallow about this. Talking about something is not tacit confirmation. This as silly as saying someone discussing justifications of communism is ipso facto a communist. Anyone remember Phil Spencer's smiley 'tacit confirmation' of Xbone's upgraded specs on Twitter? Orth was fired for making a PR nightmare, not for disclosing features of Xbone.

(Yes, even in spite of the fact that they were features of Xbone.)
 
It's sad hearing how many people from supposedly credible podcasts parroted Microsoft's claims about cloud computing.

On Weekend Confirmed for example, they openly acknowledged the PS4's better specs, but then said "well, the cloud computing might be able to make up that difference".


I only have a basic understanding of game tech and game engines, and I immediately smelled something funny in the air when I heard the Microsoft claims about "cloud computing" helping the graphical capabilities of their console.
 
The same digital foundry which said it was impossible for the PS4 to have 8GB of GDDR5 memory. They are smart fellas over there, but they aren't as smart as they think they are.

I'm sure this cloud computing stuff from Microsoft is quite likely to be a whole bunch of pr marketing speak. However, on the off chance that it isn't just marketing speak, there could be some rather interesting and very subtle applications for cloud assistance in games this generation, and I won't completely write off the possibility until we have advanced far enough in this gen and have actually seen and heard enough with regards to Xbox One's cloud computing potential or lack there of.
 
seems they couldn't release the information in a controlled way even WITH Adam Orth out of the picture lol
I'm trying really hard to think of an example where a platform holder has fucked up this badly the message delivery and I honestly can't think of any. I mean even Nintendo talking specs have never spread so much confusion themselves.
 
The same digital foundry which said it was impossible for the PS4 to have 8GB of GDDR5 memory. They are smart fellas over there, but they aren't as smart as they think they are.

I'm sure this cloud computing stuff from Microsoft is quite likely to be a whole bunch of pr marketing speak. However, on the off chance that it isn't just marketing speak, there could be some rather interesting and very subtle applications for cloud assistance in games this generation, and I won't completely write off the possibility until we have advanced far enough in this gen and have actually seen and heard enough with regards to Xbox One's cloud computing potential or lack there of.

Wouldn't it just be best to take a "don't tell us, prove it" stance on this cloud computing?
 

commedieu

Banned
I'm trying really hard to think of an example where a platform holder has fucked up this badly the message delivery and I honestly can't think of any. I mean even Nintendo talking specs have never spread so much confusion themselves.

eh.. maybe sony and killzone being in game?
 

grumble

Member
Digital Foundry with some solid analysis and a touch of investigative journalism instead of hanging off a game company's junk. Impressed.
 

Eusis

Member
Not surprised, though it's nice to see exact numbers.

Everything internally (CPU, Ram, etc) is super god damn fast compared to anything like USB or Sata connections, nevermind THE INTERNET, I'd actually like to see what speeds memory caches on old CPUs were just for reference.

Still, I still imagine something depending on AI COULD be useful, as it'd basically be like multiplayer in regards to lag, but we'll see what people have in mind or if it's useful for even that much.
 
What people keep missing about this whole obsession over how these two consoles stack up spec-wise, is that the Xbox One doesn't need to be any more powerful than it already is to have unbelievable next generation titles. It isn't impossible that the next Xbox could have a games lineup that is more appealing to a lot of gamers than what the PS4 may be offering, although I'm sure both will have a fantastic lineup of games, hence why I'm getting both.

Just don't for a second think that the PS4 has won the war simply because it has superior specs. Games that excite gamers matter more than specs, and always will. The PS4's work isn't done simply by having superior specs. Most people out there don't care about the specs. They care about content; and as much as Sony's PS4 event was more focused on gaming, they didn't show nearly enough on that front imo to blow Microsoft out of the water. They simply just had a more appropriately gamer focused event, and I give them tremendous credit for that.

However, at E3, the two consoles will be focused on games and gamers will decide what is more appealing to them based on the content shown. Let's not kid ourselves that things like rops, bandwidth, compute units and GDDR5 will matter when people are looking at games and making up their minds. A lot of people on this very site made that same exact mistake all those years ago with Cell, Blu Ray, XDR, HDMI, Full HD 1080p. What people are classifying as Microsoft's mistakes now mirroring almost precisely the mistakes Sony made prior to the PS3 release, keep in mind that Microsoft has not made a system anywhere nearly as complicated to develop for as was the case with Sony and the PS3. The Xbox One will be easier to develop for than even the Xbox 360, and such similar architectures between the PS4 and Xbox One is a boon to development, not a hindrance.
 

Sky Chief

Member
Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. Watch_Dogs wants to have a city full of simulated people. With the cloud, that might actually be possible. You could have AI threads for every single person.

Maxis and EA said that every Sim had a life that you could follow in SimCity. It was total bullshit.
 
Good article. The only reason MS ever brought up the cloud is because they simply couldn't say "our specs are worse than PS4" without having a gotcha to make it seem all better, even if their gotcha is a bunch of bull.
 

A.R.K

Member
Spot on article and what most of us have been saying on GAF calling MS bullshit. This is some smoke and mirror shit that MS is using to hide its low specs. I rather go with the Gaikai model for future proofing PS4 where after 10 years, PS4 is just a streaming machine for a more powerful rendering farm in the cloud which can produce next-next gen graphics.
 

KKRT00

Member
It also depends on the game. Take DOTA 2 for example

Dota 2 Performance, Benchmarked
CPU.png

This just shows that game is very light on GPU and very single core performance dependent.

Great example of game that require ton of CPU power is Crysis 3. Its first game that utilize my i5 2500k in 100% on 4 cores, to that extend that Fraps'ing actually affect performance, even making .png shots choke game for few frames, where the same do not happen in Crysis 2 even in DX11 mode in very heavy scenes or in BF 3 heavy MP matches.
 

REV 09

Member
So it's weaker than ps4. Guess that's settled. MS needs to hope their services and controller/Kinect make up for the specs deficiency.
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Maybe it's more important to realise that the CPU and GPU in PC are connected in such a latency ridden, bandwidth starved fashion, that using the CPU is very ineffecient. And people upgrade their GPU's more often than CPUs, so even if your job runs 25% of the efficiency on GPU vs CPU, you may still have 10x the power on the table on that side if you're a PC developer and hence it will still make sense.

The next-gen consoles have their CPU and GPU linked in such a spectacularly better way, that making use of the CPUs actually makes sense.

However, that's not to say that many games are CPU limited rather than GPU limited. That's quite rare. And whichever way you look at it, if the cloud only has 3x the CPU power of an Xbox One, then of course that does not warrant stating, the Xbox One is as powerful as 40x 360, even by a long shot.

I personally think that it's more likely to be used for running processes that can continue while you're away from your Xbox. For instance, in Forza you can trade cars, paintjobs, parts and what not, and you could have this whole process running in the cloud for each user, and allow you to interact with it using Smartglass or a webbrowser, even just designing new logos and art for on your car using your tablet or PC, and then have the cloud components and storage make that available to you and/or other players in-game. That's not to say that you can't do something like that without Microsoft's brand of Cloud setup, but there are definite advantages of having bits of such hardware reserved per user.

And of course you could easily expand this to extended save-game systems for other games as well, for instance a Skyrim style RPG could save all world state that has changed through your interaction with it, and add background processes that keep the world in flow even during your absence. I think there's a lot that can be done with this, and there could be some definite advantages if developers can get a standardised API for creating and supporting such features that are tightly integrated with Microsoft.

However, another question I have not seen answered is if these would be available for Gold users only, or for Silver as well? Business wise it would make a lot more sense if this was Gold only - it would be relatively easy to hook up such server-side components to online game experiences. But that also means that points about giving the Xbox a lot more power in general would be a little misleading.

And for multi-platform developers, I would suspect they would be strongly inclined to provide their own servers for this purpose, so that they could provide such features to all the platforms they choose to support, in whatever way they want to.


I like this suggestion, using the cloud for smear glass/second screen stuff makes sense. But again, wouldn't that be usable by Sony too? If publishers are going to invest in that kind of thing, they'd want it on both platforms wouldn't they?
 

Hari Seldon

Member
I don't see how the cloud could be useful for graphical improvements, however for AI it maybe extremely useful.

Say a single player game has some AI routine for the bosses. It ships with a basic standard AI routine, but in the cloud they collect user data and deploy a machine learning algorithm to adjust the AI routine based on user play. It is basically a way to auto-patch your boss encounters (or in the case of a strategy game, the entire AI for the game). You can already theoretically do this with just something like AWS.
 
'So we can move things: Physics. AI. Worlds. We can move incredible rendering capabilities to the cloud, and that means this box is going to evolve. So this is a radically different way that we think about how we work as creators on a box.'

none of that is inconsistent with a service like onlive or gaikai. nor inconsistent with the previously leaked xbox roadmap.

what if they meant that if you buy a game, you could also have an indefinite subscription to their game streaming service? i think that quote was just a roundabout way of saying they're offering a (laggy) streaming service and people are confused and imagining an integrated local processing/cloud processing vaporware feature.
 

Ploid 3.0

Member
One of the biggest red herrings used to usher in always on DRM being shot down, this is awesome.

Cloud is here to convert gaming into a user bound licensing model that requires server verification, not to bolster user gaming experience.

Ding! We have a winner.

D3 and Sims 2013 were successful in early units sold. I think Microsoft saw this and were very happy about their decision to do this. Both games heavily require data from the cloud servers.

Diablo 3 can't even load off-screen sections of the game without the cloud. If you desync and start scrolling through the map you'll find yourself on a square island and you can't walk off. Also enemies won't attack without D3's servers. there's like a key to activate their AI or something but when you lag they just sit there until you sync back up and find yourself dead, since you're dying on the server but not your client.
 

enzo_gt

tagged by Blackace
Thanks to DF for actually arguing with evidence than making baseless conjectures on twitter or something.

Reading now and it is very informative.
 
This. Microsoft basically fired the guy for defending Microsoft company's polices.

I am pretty sure a company as large as MS has a social media policy in place. If he was fired it was most likely because he didn't follow the policy or clear what he said with a business conduct/ legal department first.
 

abic

Banned
I like this suggestion, using the cloud for smear glass/second screen stuff makes sense. But again, wouldn't that be usable by Sony too? If publishers are going to invest in that kind of thing, they'd want it on both platforms wouldn't they?

Again there is no magic sauce in MS cloud that is not buildable or already available in PS cloud.

In fact most of these clouds will probably be through servers owned and maintained by individual developers snd not by the platform holder.

The whole cloud processing thing is BS, every single instance it cites is duplicable across all platforms on the market today and tomorrow -- PS4, XBONE, Wii U, PC... Etc
 

abic

Banned
D3 and Sims 2013 were successful in early units sold. I think Microsoft saw this and were very happy about their decision to do this. Both games heavily require data from the cloud servers.

Diablo 3 can't even load off-screen sections of the game without the cloud. If you desync and start scrolling through the map you'll find yourself on a square island and you can't walk off. Also enemies won't attack without D3's servers. there's like a key to activate their AI or something but when you lag they just sit there until you sync back up and find yourself dead, since you're dying on the server but not your client.

As someone who's worked in an industry driven by cloud for the past 7 years (specifically F2P online games), im surprised by responses like yours.

The D3 and Sim City examples are bad because these are gameplay forms that existed before the cloud and performed BETTER without it. It was modified to keep exchanging handshakes and data with the cloud to continually verify that this was a real copy of the game. Of course there are legitimate reasons like the Diablo 3 cloud model being essentially what it took to play multiplayer with other persons online (continually exchanging data with server on where you are in the map and what action you are doing to what item, and cloud telling your client to render where your friends are and what they are doing).

Making them cloud based even for single player only hurt the experience with lag and one additonal req in online.

To summarise your attempt to justify cloud by claming cloud DRM in two recent big titles that forced constant verifications that the game was a real copy has no argumentative weight and proves nothing (you use an example that shows the very problems to try to prove a point to the problem at hand).



What are legit reasons for cloud?
- basic gameplay design being always multiplayer centric
- minimal client / minimized loading times, so data is being streamed to you as you play; see browser games
 
Those comments from Eurogamer users are spot on

Cloud gaming is such a genius idea!

Release a deliberately underpowered hardware, bogged down by three OSes and over excessive multitasking, then offload some computations to your servers - and here you have an excellent excuse for always-online DRM!


The answer to the question posed in the title is yes, MS can transform gaming with the cloud. It can transform it from one where you own your game and play it on your hardware to one where you rent the game from MS, for as long as your account is not hacked, then depend utterly on MS servers and the internet to play all your games.

That is indeed a transformation.
 

hesido

Member
God Rays will be computed in the cloud! You know, God Rays come from between clouds. It now makes sense!

MS's cloud claims are ABSOLUTE nonsense. Even Digital Foundry fell for some of it by stating it could have a use for, wait for it, pre-baked lighting on the cloud! The fact that devs would not pre-calculate static data on their end and stuff it on a disc is utterly stupid, what a waste of electricity! Something that should be done once would have to be done gazillion times. Precomputed radiance transfer allows different lighting directions, intensity, and you can even bake sub surface scattering information. That's enough information to create visuals for any time of the day. Works only for static scenes, but realtime lighting using PRT is ridiculously fast.

Pre-baked lighting on cloud would only make sense for dynamically generated levels. It would be a very specific set of games that would employ dynamically generated levels. However, if I were a developer, I'd go for a real-time lighting solution if that was the case, asking people to download that info from the Internet is being douchey.
 
Basically the cloud can be useful in situations where:
-latency is unimportant
-data being transferred is small enough to upload/download quickly over any mediocre connection
-data is dynamic enough that it couldn't just be preloaded on the disc or as part of a patch
-processing/bandwidth are lightweight enough to avoid incurring heavy costs OR cloud features can be monetized to pay for their costs

There may be some interesting uses for it, but it's far more limited than Microsoft's "infinite power" marketing would imply. And so far MS has yet to present any realistic use cases for their cloud technology, probably so they can continue to drive the "40x Xbox 360" narrative.

I imagine we'll mostly see it being used for Dark Souls-style mechanics that bring multiplayer features into single player games. Nothing that couldn't be done by a traditional server model, but Azure might be more convenient for developers to set up, plus it has some other advantages like inherent scalability.
 
Question, if you think the power of a console as 100% (CPU+GPU) how much power does different task takes in % (rendering, AI, lighting etc)? Example battlefield when you are in a big battle in daylight. Would be interesting to now when cloud function might help the Xbox 1 with some tasks.
 
They did not say anything new....
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=58999753&postcount=263


95+ % of the rendering pipeline requires insanely fast access times and high bandwiths. Remainder could be helped by the cloud, but it will not have much impact on visuals. AI rendering of the large groups of people [factions] could have the biggest impact.

Which they point out, that only certain types of games would be affected by that. Open world type games with a lot of NPCs that run a lot of backround AI, like GTA and Skyrim. That genre is only a fraction of the games out there. Gears of War, Halo, Forza, ect do not require a lot of background AI characters(remember direct interactions wouldn't work due to latency and needing to be updated every frame).

Then they also point out that it would be hard for 3rd party games to financially support it if they are not doing the same thing on the other platforms.

So basically we'll only see it being used on that one, single, open world exclusive Xbox game, that MS may or not make. lol

In the short term, as in now and for the next few years, it would seem to be pointless. But I like the forward thinking behind it. 5-10 years from now when the tech improves regarding bandwidth/latency, and they come up with more creative ways to take advantage of it, I could see it making a big impact.
 
My take on the whole cloud thing is that it'll be used to make everything have forced multiplayer ala Sim City and Diablo 3. Because it'll se "so innovative!"

Some of us LIKE single player games, thanks.
 

Artex

Banned
We will know something at E3 since Forza is a launch title and confirmed to be using it in some way.

I was thinking to possibly load tracks quicker? Does the cloud doing anything quicker than a local CPU make sense at all though?

Also I hate talking about "The Cloud". I feel stupid referring to it so ominously, and every time I hear a MS rep say "the infinite power of the cloud" I want to punch someone wearing a suit.
 

spwolf

Member
Which they point out, that only certain types of games would be affected by that. Open world type games with a lot of NPCs that run a lot of backround AI, like GTA and Skyrim. That genre is only a fraction of the games out there. Gears of War, Halo, Forza, ect do not require a lot of background AI characters(remember direct interactions wouldn't work due to latency and needing to be updated every frame).

Then they also point out that it would be hard for 3rd party games to financially support it if they are not doing the same thing on the other platforms.

So basically we'll only see it being used on that one, single, open world exclusive Xbox game, that MS may or not make. lol

In the short term, as in now and for the next few years, it would seem to be pointless. But I like the forward thinking behind it. 5-10 years from now when the tech improves regarding bandwidth/latency, and they come up with more creative ways to take advantage of it, I could see it making a big impact.

well... cloud computing means ongoing costs... basically that means you cant have it in offline game that you pay once, even if it was great.


Now for MMO's and online games, or online service like Gaikai/Online where you pay monthly cost for accessing the service, yeah, of course.

What will happen with "cloud computing" in XO is that it will likely be used for setting up multiplayer servers... which will be very easy to do and scale, and one such server can support many many players.
 
We will know something at E3 since Forza is a launch title and confirmed to be using it in some way.

I was thinking to possibly load tracks quicker? Does the cloud doing anything quicker than a local CPU make sense at all though?

Not really, most of the loading process (from what I understand) is just reading files from the disc or HDD and decompressing them. That's exactly the kind of situation where you need much faster bandwidth than the network can provide.

My guess is that Forza will use cloud rendering for prettier replays (basically an improved photo-mode) or for some kind of multiplayer functionality. Maybe they will use it for lighting, but I'm still skeptical about that.
 

Calvarok

Banned
All this talk of cloud stuff is really... eh... I don't want to lose my internet for a minute and have my game go down to 10 fps.
 
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