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Analyst: Xbox "generates" $2 billion in losses for MS. Hides it with patent royalties

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Raonak

Banned
Well, MS does moneyhat like no tomorrow. Yearly COD co-marketing/DLC exclusivity deals have gotta cost a small fortune.
 
Yeah, I'm not buying this. All the investor data doesn't show this and this isn't the most trust worthy a article. There's no hard data or any source to back this up. All the hard data show the xbox brand making nice profits since 2008. Dunno what the analyst is trying to pull.

pretty much, reads like a FUD piece.
 
This guy has no clue what he's talking about. Losing money on what? The hardware is profitable. Xbox Live Gold memberships are basically free money. Royalties cost them almost nothing and bring in huge cash for the unit. They're certainly not spending Billions on first party software development. It's no secret they used the division to huge craters in their balance sheet like Windows Phone and the Kin, but they usually slush the money over from Xbox, not the other way around.
 

Acheteedo

Member
Well, MS does moneyhat like no tomorrow. Yearly COD co-marketing/DLC exclusivity deals have gotta cost a small fortune.

Surely that would be more than offset by the royalties on the game sales themselves. MS make a fortune on CoD.
 

Mael

Member
Rick Sherlund is even closer to Microsoft than that. He's close friends with Bill Gates and his family, dating back to when he worked at Goldman Sachs.

I guess that put to rest the validity of the messenger.
If he's that close to MSFT, if he was seriously telling that MSFT plan to axe its Windows line of product I'd take a closer look to the info before dissmissing it entirely.
 
This guy has no clue what he's talking about. Losing money on what? The hardware is profitable. Xbox Live Gold memberships are basically free money. Royalties cost them almost nothing and bring in huge cash for the unit. They're certainly not spending Billions on first party software development. It's no secret they used the division to huge craters in their balance sheet like Windows Phone and the Kin, but they usually slush the money over from Xbox, not the other way around.

Dude is a personal friend of bill gates and was a senior analyst at GS. He probably knows a bit better than you.
 
So the title says xbox, but it's all the electronics division combined (Zune/Windows phone etc.)

It's like combining the electronics division for Sony (PS3, TV's etc.) and saying "Playstation is losing X".
 

NoTacos

Member
well considering theyre willing to spend 100 million on controller prototypes alone, i can only guess how much xbone prototypes cost. Still, 2 billion? Mercy me.
 

Mael

Member
So the title says xbox, but it's all the electronics division combined (Zune/Windows phone etc.)

It's like combining the electronics division for Sony (PS3, TV's etc.) and saying "Playstation is losing X".

RTFA, it's $2.5b for the total division and $2b for the xbox endeavour.

That means that they're losing more money on this than shit like Bing
 

Big-E

Member
Like to hear why this guy is wrong and not just looking at NPD data as the proof. Things to consider is that MS closed a whole bunch of studios and then opened up a bunch more that have done next to nothing in terms of putting out a product yet. They spent 100 million on a controller that doesn't seem like much of a departure and was something that didn't really need fixing. Also, wasn't there that report on how much each of the big tech companies spend on R and D and wasn't MS by far the most even though they are late to every single market they are in aside from OS and Office?
 

Cipherr

Member
He has some credibility but....

It doesn't matter. 2 billion lost PER YEAR for the last two years of the Xbox 360.

That just doesn't tally right no matter which way you look at it. That's 4 billion in losses in the last 48 months for the Xbox alone unless I'm reading it wrong. Credibility or not, that such an enormous number that it willfully invites skepticism.

You can even throw XBONE R&D in there and the numbers still don't sound right. It would also mean other things, like OEM's on the phone side must really have zero faith in WP as a platform if they would all collectively pay 2 Billion+ a year and release Android phones versus dropping Android and going with WP.

Somehow I get the feeling things aren't this grim for MS.
 

Mondy

Banned
No wonder the Microsoft Traditionalists want to offload the Xbox division. This coming generation will be its final nail.
 

twofold

Member
RTFA, it's $2.5b for the total division and $2b for the xbox endeavour.

That means that they're losing more money on this than shit like Bing

They're losing billions on Bing too according to Sherlund.

So what's the plan for Mulally when he takes over Microsoft? In Sherlund's mind, it's time to dump two major anchors — Bing and Xbox. Combined, he thinks Bing and Xbox are losing $3-$4 billion a year, which is a $0.30-$0.40 drag on EPS.

He thinks Microsoft should give away or sell Bing, and spin out or sell Xbox.

It's not just that they lose money, either. He says, "The even bigger issue is that this business does not drive traction in smartphones or tablets and does not contribute to PC demand or enterprise products. They are not strategic and are a costly sideshow."

http://www.businessinsider.com/nomura-note-on-the-future-of-microsoft-2013-11
 

Cipherr

Member

And so Bing is losing 1.5B a year according to him as well? Maybe in the beginning, but still I don't believe that today. I'm not saying the man is wrong, but if these two things are causing these kinds of losses, its because of mismanagement or something else, it cannot be normal. XBOX should not be losing that kind of money annually. Not even Bing should....
 
There is no way they'd keep it going if they were losing that much.

Either Microsoft are bad at business or that article is bollocks.

My money's on the second one.
 

lazydom

Member
It seems any negative news about Microsoft at the moment is taken at face value... If the 360 isn't making money at the moment with Xblg subscription and a significantly higher attach rate than the ps3, surely this industry cannot be profitable..
 

twofold

Member
You're absolutely right, brain fart on my part.

Actually if the xbox market is such a burden it makes Ballmer departure even more logical...

Indeed. The lost opportunity cost is probably a bigger deal, though. Imagine if Microsoft had invested all that Xbox money and talent into Windows Phone/tablets instead. They'd be in a much better position for the future.
 
asfd3221125511352.jpg

So they've been profitable since 2008?

What the fuck is the writer of this piece smoking with this '2 billion a year in the red' narrative?
 

Mael

Member
Indeed. The lost opportunity cost is probably a bigger deal, though. Imagine if Microsoft had invested all that Xbox money and talent into Windows Phone/tablets instead. They'd be in a much better position for the future.

Since they were focused on the failing game market (sorry guys this is what it is) they're getting marginalized on their more lucrative businesses.
They're facing stiffer competitions than ever in their Office and Windows lines.
If semiaccurate is to be believed, their server business is floundering and need serious investment to be salvageable even.
They totally missed the whole mobile revolution of the last few years and they're now in a market where basically they can't leverage their main strength to make headways in the tab market (the market that is eating the life out of regular pc sales).
I'm not even sure their cloud solution is that competitive considering the competition.
 

twofold

Member
So they've been profitable since 2008?

What the fuck is the writer of this piece smoking with this '2 billion a year in the red' narrative?

Read what he's saying.

He's saying that the Android royalties are bringing in $2 billion a year. Microsoft is using this $2 billion to offset the losses of the 'entertainment and devices division', making it look healthier than it is.

Since they were focused on the failing game market (sorry guys this is what it is) they're getting marginalized on their more lucrative businesses.
They're facing stiffer competitions than ever in their Office and Windows lines.
If semiaccurate is to be believed, their server business is floundering and need serious investment to be salvageable even.
They totally missed the whole mobile revolution of the last few years and they're now in a market where basically they can't leverage their main strength to make headways in the tab market (the market that is eating the life out of regular pc sales).
I'm not even sure their cloud solution is that competitive considering the competition.

100% agreed, and it's all down to Ballmer. While I'm sure he's good with numbers, it's obvious that he has no vision.

Remember this? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U

Says it all, really.
 

graywolf323

Member
That exclusive DLC doesn't come for free. They've spent all this time on "You've got to spend money" but they haven't quite made it to "make money" yet.

they seem to be on the question mark step still

It seems any negative news about Microsoft at the moment is taken at face value... If the 360 isn't making money at the moment with Xblg subscription and a significantly higher attach rate than the ps3, surely this industry cannot be profitable..

it's entirely believable because the PS2 was the most successful console of all time and Sony managed to use up all the profits on R&D for the PS3 IIRC
 

CLEEK

Member
So they've been profitable since 2008?

What the fuck is the writer of this piece smoking with this '2 billion a year in the red' narrative?

As far as I know, MS have never published the opertaing profit/loss for Xbox. It has always been grouped in with other products/divisions.

Entertainment & Devices is the current division that contains Xbox, and its profitable. But as per the OP, thats due to the $2B patent troll profits, which obstificates the staggering Xbox losses.

Compare to Nintendo and Sony, who always report directly their gaming revenue and opertaing profit / loss.
 

MoGamesXNA

Unconfirmed Member
I'm genuinely skeptical of that figure. MS isn't stupid and the development of the Xbox One wouldn't have put them in the red to that extent.
 
Read what he's saying.

He's saying that the Android royalties are bringing in $2 billion a year. Microsoft is using this $2 billion to offset the losses of the 'entertainment and devices division', making it look healthier than it is.



100% agreed, and it's all down to Ballmer. While I'm sure he's good with numbers, it's obvious that he has no vision.

Remember this? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U

Says it all, really.

And the Android royalties should go where then exactly? It is just FUD.
 

SparkTR

Member
It seems any negative news about Microsoft at the moment is taken at face value... If the 360 isn't making money at the moment with Xblg subscription and a significantly higher attach rate than the ps3, surely this industry cannot be profitable..

There's a reason why Nintendo dropped out of the high-end hardware race, and why pretty much everyone in the electronics industry is avoiding it like the plague. Microsoft are getting tired of the Xbox and Sony is in the dire position of even razer thin profit margins are worth their time compared to their usual losses.
 

Skeff

Member
There is no way they'd keep it going if they were losing that much.

Either Microsoft are bad at business or that article is bollocks.

My money's on the second one.

It would likely be part of the Xbox strategy to lose money at first.

The original Xbox will have been a cash dump, there would have been 0 expectation to make money with that, going up against Sony, Nintendo and Sega isn't an easy thing to do and R+D for a console is a lot of money combined with a loss leading strategy for hardware sales, factor in replacing 14 million power cables, Building/Buying games studios and creating exclusives for a console with a 20 million install base isn't going to be profitable.

Moving towards the 360, they had to compete against the PS2's successor, they had to invest heavily in: Studios, online infrastructure, exclusives, they sold consoles at a loss, they did the R+D for the console, they had to pay for RROD replacements and they started getting towards profitability which would have been the goal.

After this they had to invest in Kinect.

The research costs of creating the XB1 are massive as well as buying exclusive partnerships.

tl:dr - Games consoles don't make much money at first unless you have a near monopoly.
 

Mael

Member
And the Android royalties should go where then exactly? It is just FUD.

FUD is actually MSFT putting Android patent trolling royalties free money in the division that is losing tons of money instead of putting it in another division (like say mobile device or even lawyer fee or something).
The way it's done they can claim that their gaming division is making tons of money when that's quite clearly not the case to anyone with the finer details.
 

Asherdude

Member
Scary. I bet they drop the Xbox when Steve Ballmer finally gets replaced. Honestly, I don't see how that wouldn't happened. We've all seen it before. It's called "pulling a Sega."
 
This is probably why they board want rid of xbox. All the profit they are making is being funnelled down the xbox drain.

If xbox didnt exist they would be 2 billion in the black. Now I know why the investors are so keen on getting rid of it.
 

CLEEK

Member
And the Android royalties should go where then exactly? It is just FUD.

What do you mean?

Its not that the Android revenue shouldn't go to the same division that is home to their mobile group. Its that revenue isn't disclosed, so investors look at the Entertainment & Devices division and assume all the product streams within it are turning a healthy profit. Where as they're not. They're just having their massive losses and failures hidden by the whopping great chunk of patent cash.
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
As far as I know, MS have never published the opertaing profit/loss for Xbox. It has always been grouped in with other products/divisions.

Entertainment & Devices is the current division that contains Xbox, and its profitable. But as per the OP, thats due to the $2B patent troll profits, which obstificates the staggering Xbox losses.

Compare to Nintendo and Sony, who always report directly their gaming revenue and opertaing profit / loss.

but that division also includes Surface, which they just wrote down a big loss on, and Windows Phone (does that include the $1bn per year paid to Nokia?)
 
As far as I know, MS have never published the opertaing profit/loss for Xbox. It has always been grouped in with other products/divisions.

Entertainment & Devices is the current division that contains Xbox, and its profitable. But as per the OP, thats due to the $2B patent troll profits, which obstificates the staggering Xbox losses.

Compare to Nintendo and Sony, who always report directly their gaming revenue and opertaing profit / loss.

Fair enough.

I don't see how it's possible they're blowing 2 Billion a year on Xbox. They've basically been selling the 360 hardware at a profit since at least 2008, they make licensing fees off every game published on the platform, they barely make any first party software and all of it tends to sell well (Halo, Forza, Fable, Kinect shit), plus Live subscription fees and ad revenue.

You can't blow 2 billion on like 3 games a year, advertising, and exclusive contracts for DLC and the odd game. It must be ALL R&D if it's true, in which case, I can't imagine the kind of stupid shit they're trying and failing at.
 

Maxrunner

Member
I sure hope Ms gets screwed with that patent trolling shit. They haven't done anything worthwhile in the last 5 years, so they earn money from other companies products, disgusting....the moment they leave this industry the better...
 

Mandoric

Banned
And the Android royalties should go where then exactly? It is just FUD.

His analysis isn't about where the Android royalties should go.

His analysis is that a particular division, which the current management team wants to expand and a group of investors wants to spin off, is presented as a lucrative packaged goods business by management but instead appears to make most of its money in licensing. The takeaway being that the packaged goods side can be dumped completely and money will continue to flow in.

It's the one-step-up version of "EDD looks good because of Xbox, and is hiding Zune/WP7 bombing".

If he's right, then most of this thread is correct, it is huge mismanagement rather than any negative judgment on the current Xbox product. And it's entirely possible he is; as has been pointed out, everything we know points to Xbone R&D costs being huge, significantly outpacing PS3's, and PS3 rapidly ate through PS2's lifetime profits that were significantly higher than X360's.

You can't blow 2 billion on like 3 games a year, advertising, and exclusive contracts for DLC and the odd game. It must be ALL R&D if it's true, in which case, I can't imagine the kind of stupid shit they're trying and failing at.

If we trust Microsoft's own numbers, you can get also make a pretty sizable dent. See the $500m prelaunch blitz for Kinect or the $1bn of development and marketing support for launch-window Xbone titles, a number which was thrown around BEFORE Titanfall exclusivity.
 

Mael

Member
Fair enough.

I don't see how it's possible they're blowing 2 Billion a year on Xbox. They've basically been selling the 360 hardware at a profit since at least 2008, they make licensing fees off every game published on the platform, they barely make any first party software and all of it tends to sell well (Halo, Forza, Fable, Kinect shit), plus Live subscription fees and ad revenue.

You can't blow 2 billion on like 3 games a year, advertising, and exclusive contracts for DLC and the odd game. It must be ALL R&D if it's true, in which case, I can't imagine the kind of stupid shit they're trying and failing at.

Did you miss the whole Kinect 1 on xbox?
That was basically a console launch right there with all the cost attached on it.
That couldn't possibly have been cheap.
 

user_nat

THE WORDS! They'll drift away without the _!
Read what he's saying.

He's saying that the Android royalties are bringing in $2 billion a year. Microsoft is using this $2 billion to offset the losses of the 'entertainment and devices division', making it look healthier than it is.

Which makes no sense, because Android was very tiny in 2008. So how did the division not lose billions then (with higher hardware costs, less gold subscribers).

So unless they've somehow started manufacturing 360s at a much higher cost than 2008, it doesn't make sense.
 
If we trust Microsoft's own numbers, you can get also make a pretty sizable dent. See the $500m prelaunch blitz for Kinect or the $1bn of development and marketing support for launch-window Xbone titles, a number which was thrown around BEFORE Titanfall exclusivity.

Did you miss the whole Kinect 1 on xbox?
That was basically a console launch right there with all the cost attached on it.
That couldn't possibly have been cheap.

Right but that wouldn't account for 2 billion dollars per year, it would show up as one or two particularly expensive years. Spikes in spending that are gone the next fiscal year, post launch.

The article seems to be saying that the Xbox division is losing 2 billion a year, each year.
 
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