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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th

Elandyll

Banned
http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames/ref=zg_bsnr_tab_t_bs

Disclaimer: ranking positions may change depending at what time you click the link.

It is now 6:14pm eastern and the MK8 WiiU bundle is still outselling the Xbox One on Amazon since my last post. It seems consumers arent buying the MAU hype.

See, that's the thing. After a promo period, it is -normal- for a product returning to its usual price to sell less, at least for a while.
The thing that does not make sense in this picture is the PS4 still at #1 (the thirst of the MAU god is real).
WiiU finding its wind (maybe?) is nice though.
 

Bolivar687

Banned
See, that's the thing. After a promo period, it is -normal- for a product returning to its usual price to sell less, at least for a while.
The thing that does not make sense in this picture is the PS4 still at #1 (the thirst of the MAU god is real).
WiiU finding its wind (maybe?) is nice though.

It's the deal for 50% off PS+ that you get with the bundle that's pushing it over the edge. The MAU cannot be contained.
 

allan-bh

Member
For now no announcement from Microsoft about Xbox One temporary price drop. Will they face PS4 with a bigger price? For me would be crazy.

Anyway, the price cut announcement is still in time.
 

allan-bh

Member
Xbox One console sales at retail were up 22 percent over the same period last year, making it the second biggest Black Friday week in 15 years of Xbox history in the U.S.

This Black Friday was big.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Xbox One console sales at retail were up 22 percent over the same period last year, making it the second biggest Black Friday week in 15 years of Xbox history in the U.S.

This Black Friday was big.

Yeah, the fact that MS did even better during this year's Black Friday (vs. 2014) is surprising to me.

1.2 Million+ NPD month for PS4 and Xbox One (each)?
 

allan-bh

Member
The best Black Friday week for Xbox was in 2011, 960k (800k in 24 hours).

2012 was 750k, I think this was the second best, if true Xbox One did better than that.
 

Elios83

Member
Yeah, the fact that MS did even better during this year's Black Friday (vs. 2014) is surprising to me.

1.2 Million+ NPD month for PS4 and Xbox One (each)?

You should consider that last year Xbox One had really strong sales for the whole month though, not just BF week.
When they announced their holiday promotion sales jumped through the roof.
Still I'd say that a 1m+ is to be expected for XB1 this year as well which is definetly positive for home console business.
 

allan-bh

Member
According to Infoscout BF was virtually a tie, so even if Microsoft internal tracking shows that Xbox One won, probably is too close to call.
 
Damn, I forgot this lets them roll in Windows users too. See how easy it is to confuse people.
What's noteworthy is how quickly Windows is claiming users. W10 just launched in July, and Windows already accounts for nearly as much Live activity as the consoles.


The thing is: Microsoft has a gobal Microsoft account System. Every Microsoft Account is a Live Account, is a Skype Account, is an Office Account, is a Windows 10/8 Account.

Do we trust them enough, that they don't include Office, Skype and Windows users that don't open the Xbox or Windows marketplace?
What? No, Live activity is counted separately from that stuff. Yes, it's really easy to get on Live if you're already a Microsoft user, but you aren't counted as one without a separate account.

Right? A Live account is separate from your regular MS account, yes?

For obvious reasons, Microsoft doesn't tell us the active spending users metric.
Volume! VOLUME! VOLUME!

It costs $10/year to get rid of the ads in Solitaire. Yes, they get five times as much from a Gold sub, but soon they'll have five times as many users on Windows. Then ten times. Maybe fifty times. Maybe more.

Maybe nobody will pay to disable the ads. That's fine too. The Flappy Bird dude was pulling in $50,000 per day in ad views, after Apple got their cut. How many people do you suppose were playing that at any given time? Maybe a million, tops? How many people around the world do you suppose are playing Solitaire on Windows at any given time, or simply have it running in the background while they take a break to do some actual work? Maybe 100 million? So that'd mean Microsoft could harvest TWO BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR pushing ads through a fucking solitaire client. This is why you can only disable them via recurring payment.

This is where their focus is now. That's why console sales don't matter anymore. They can make more money with less effort on Windows, especially if they can ever get their phones to take off.
 
1.2 Million+ NPD month for PS4 and Xbox One (each)?
Well, Bone sold more than last BF, but it sound like PS4 sold more than that, since Hyrb claimed no victory. Plus, RetailGAF indicated the PS4 had been selling much more strongly pre-BF.

So I don't really have any idea how much either sold, but it sounds like PS4 would have a fairly significant lead, no? Stronger pre-BF, plus winning/edging BF itself? Also, I think the yearly performance of the NDC bundle of Amazon must be telling us something.
 

kyser73

Member
1. I feel o might need to revise my estimates upward.

2. I think November will be a more than adequate counterbalance to a lacklustre October.
 
It costs $10/year to get rid of the ads in Solitaire. Yes, they get five times as much from a Gold sub, but soon they'll have five times as many users on Windows. Then ten times. Maybe fifty times. Maybe more.

Maybe nobody will pay to disable the ads. That's fine too. The Flappy Bird dude was pulling in $50,000 per day in ad views, after Apple got their cut. How many people do you suppose were playing that at any given time? Maybe a million, tops? How many people around the world do you suppose are playing Solitaire on Windows at any given time, or simply have it running in the background while they take a break to do some actual work? Maybe 100 million? So that'd mean Microsoft could harvest TWO BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR pushing ads through a fucking solitaire client. This is why you can only disable them via recurring payment.

This is where their focus is now. That's why console sales don't matter anymore. They can make more money with less effort on Windows, especially if they can ever get their phones to take off.
Thanks for this.
Very good points.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Since MS didn't state any growth for the month as a whole and instead specifically indicated BF week can we take that to mean they are down YoY for the month of November?
 

Welfare

Member
Since MS didn't state any growth for the month as a whole and instead specifically indicated BF week can we take that to mean they are down YoY for the month of November?

They would leave full month performance for NPD. The new PR is just for BF.

Also if it did >750k in the final week, for it to be down YOY it would have to do <480k the rest of November.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Since MS didn't state any growth for the month as a whole and instead specifically indicated BF week can we take that to mean they are down YoY for the month of November?

Not so Sure anymore.
The 360 has sold 750k in BF week, and 1.26m in Nov 2012, which is bigger than The 1.23m of XB1 2014.
And we know XB1 BF week of This year was bigger.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Not so Sure anymore.
The 360 has sold 750k in BF week, and 1.26m in Nov 2012, which is bigger than The 1.23m of XB1 2014.
And we know XB1 BF week of This year was bigger.

But they had those $50 bundle price drops that happened BF week. Seeing as they advertised those ahead of time it would make sense that the sales would be heavily skewed to the week the discounts went into effect. Last year their discounts were in effect for the whole month so it's not really directly comparable either.

That is unless I'm mistaken about when their bundle discounts took effect this year? Please correct me if I'm mistaken.
 

Elios83

Member
They would leave full month performance for NPD. The new PR is just for BF.

Also if it did >750k in the final week, for it to be down YOY it would have to do <480k the rest of November.

No there are stats for the full November as well. When they talk about backwards compatibility on X1, Win10 growth and Fallout 4 most streamed game they are talking about November nor just BF.
They are just telling what they want to tell. They know the numbers for both BF and the full month.

Btw I think they'll surpass 1m but slightly fall short of last year's numbers. 1.1m sounds accurate. BF was stronger than expected for both (>750k ) which is good.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
So, what Are the estimate for BF week?
PS4 42%
XB1 41%
WIU 17%

Of course those Are estimate, but let's Say Are right, is just a example.

If XB1 sold >750k in BF week, This could mean:
PS4 > 768,000
XB1 > 750,000
WIU > 310,000

...Or, if XB1 Sold < 960k:
PS4 < 983,000
XB1 < 960,000
WIU < 398,000

...If that's correct, This was an amazing Black Friday.
 

hawk2025

Member
So, what Are the estimate for BF week?
PS4 42%
XB1 41%
WIU 17%

Of course those Are estimate, but let's Say Are right, is just a example.

If XB1 sold >750k in BF week, This could mean:
PS4 > 768,000
XB1 > 750,000
WIU > 310,000

...Or, if XB1 Sold < 960k:
PS4 < 983,000
XB1 < 960,000
WIU < 398,000

...If that's correct, This was an amazing Black Friday.


I would guess that XB1 < 3 million and PS4 > 100,000.

Surely I'll be right, then. I'll come back to gloat in a bit.
 
So, what Are the estimate for BF week?
PS4 42%
XB1 41%
WIU 17%

Of course those Are estimate, but let's Say Are right, is just a example.

If XB1 sold >750k in BF week, This could mean:
PS4 > 768,000
XB1 > 750,000
WIU > 310,000

...Or, if XB1 Sold < 960k:
PS4 < 983,000
XB1 < 960,000
WIU < 398,000

...If that's correct, This was an amazing Black Friday.

This warms my heart if true^^ A lot of happy kids this Christmas^^
 

allan-bh

Member
Xbox One did well in november but I'm waiting the announcement of the temporary price drop or PS4 will be a killer in december.
 

donny2112

Member
So we have XB1 up 22% BF week YOY, PS4 and XB1 virtual tie on BF from first 150K receipts from Infoscout, Wii U interest up 3x in % from last year from same Infoscout report, and Amazon showing a clear November win for PS4 on Amazon, right? Any other hard-ish data to this point?

[PS4] 1200K
[XB1] 1025K
[3DS] 500K
[WIU] 300K
 
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