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PAL Charts - Week 37, 2016

OléGunner;217356861 said:
If Gears can do 150k+ that's a win in my book considering how MS exclusives haven't set the world on fire in UK all that much.

Agreed. 150k+ would be very good.

I was able to predict Quantum Break but Gears 4 is pretty tricky. I'd have to factor in, Gears Judgement, the Halo 5 drop, low sales of other exclusives and no Epic Games shows imo (yes I know some from Epic are there). I'll go for 115-130k but really wouldn't be shocked seeing anywhere from 90-195k. I'm not seeing a break of 200k.

The hype seems better than Judgement but nowhere near the heights of Gears 1-3
 

viHuGi

Banned
Anything below 200k for Gears or Halo isn't any good in Xbox biggest EU market.

Hopefully the game sells, love the series.
 
While the game has very positive previews, I'm not convinced a (large) market still exists for a traditional third person shooter.

I think I would have doubled down even harder on the MP than they seemed to do.

I wonder if TPS games going to become like the racing genre .
We have one game that sells a huge amount .
Even with GT6 not sell like other GT games it still sold as much as 3 to 4 other racing games combine.
Other than ND most of them don't seem to have big sales , so we going to have one company dominate the TPS market .
 

EGM1966

Member
On Gears 4 performance. If it's good, and gets good reviews I think it'll sell pretty well actually. Not Gears 3 levels (too much water under the bridge) but certainly ahead of Judgement (which was clearly a miss-step although I understand why they tried that approach).

It has to be a showcase for SP and MP though, and they need to really nail an MP experience in particular that draws back fans.

Halo 4 I felt in the SP completely missed the mark, going in a direction majority didn't want post Halo 3 legendary ending, so for SP they need to find a narrative that's going to appeal to the majority and not the minority invested in any kind of EU material.

But I think the franchise remains popular, the UK/PAL base is big enough to support decent sales, and to be blunt that install base has been somewhat starved for big exclusives IMHO so there should be pent up demand.
 
PES is not indicative of how XB1 is performing at all in my opinion. If a game is made in Japan it gets a percentage bump on Playstation just for the sole purpose of being made in Japan. Even if the game looks as Western as possible (see Bayonetta & Resident Evil last gen), it's just a weird unexplainable quirk.

I think the ratio is still around 55/45.

With PES it's not even a Japanese thing imo.
That series is just so heavily skewed to PS in general from the PS1 days.

And that split you put forward doesn't apply to all mainstream AAA games, it can be lot higher for PS4 at times, especially if the game isn't MP focused.

Agreed. 150k+ would be very good.

I was able to predict Quantum Break but Gears 4 is pretty tricky. I'd have to factor in, Gears Judgement, the Halo 5 drop, low sales of other exclusives and no Epic Games shows imo (yes I know some from Epic are there). I'll go for 115-130k but really wouldn't be shocked seeing anywhere from 90-195k. I'm not seeing a break of 200k.

The hype seems better than Judgement but nowhere near the heights of Gears 1-3

How did QB do at launch again?
Edit: nvm checked old chart it did <27k.

I'm with you in that I can't see Gears 4 doing 200k.
Anything close to that would be great for MS.

I wonder if TPS games going to become like the racing genre .
We have one game that sells a huge amount .
Even with GT6 not sell like other GT games it still sold as much as 3 to 4 other racing games combine.
Other than ND most of them don't seem to have big sales , so we going to have one company dominate the TPS market .

We barely have any true third person action SP games right now.
It's why I'm always a little bemused at people taking shots at ND or Remedy that they want open world games or RPG's from them as for new IP.

There are few studios who do third person action so well and at a regular release schedule.
 
The marketing for Halo always completely eclipsed everything else as well. Even with Halo 5. I haven't seen that kind of push for Gears at all and its out in a few weeks.

I don't remember Gears ever getting a big Marketing push in the UK. It's always been more a WOM type of series in comparison to Halo.

Honestly, I think what's going to hurt gears more than anything is the fact that it is very much a series that reflects that time period and where gaming and gamers were back then. I'd wager many people who would jump on a gears game in 2007 are pretty meh about series now.
 

Shin-chan

Member
I don't remember Gears ever getting a big Marketing push in the UK. It's always been more a WOM type of series in comparison to Halo.

Honestly, I think what's going to hurt gears more than anything is the fact that it is very much a series that reflects that time period and where gaming and gamers were back then. I'd wager many people who would jump on a gears game in 2007 are pretty meh about series now.
I agree that it's very much an Xbox 360 series, not to mention that it looks as though little has changed since then with the new one.

But the Mad World marketing for Gears 1 was everywhere. And the Devotchka "How This Will End" trailer for 2 was all over TV as well. I was at university when 3 released and didn't watch much TV so I don't know about that.
 

wapplew

Member
I think Gears 4 will surprise everyone like Doom did.
We don't have many game like that anymore, it's back to the root, no nonsense pure gameplay goodness, glowing previews sound like this might be MS first (or second after FH3) 90 of the gen.
 
Not feeling the hype for Gears and it had a less than stellar last proper entry. The re-releases might have gone down well? but they hardly set the charts alight.

I'm not sure it's going to sell all that good. Decent if unspectacular at best really. I can't see it selling better than Halo 5 in it's first week. Heck I'm not even sure it could hit 100k but miss the mark. However, I don't know what the marketing is like but it will need something special. I'm just not sure even then.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
I wonder if TPS games going to become like the racing genre .
We have one game that sells a huge amount .
Even with GT6 not sell like other GT games it still sold as much as 3 to 4 other racing games combine.
Other than ND most of them don't seem to have big sales , so we going to have one company dominate the TPS market .

I doubt Uncharted would come close to being as dominant in its genre as GT is. Sim racers were never big, GT was its own genre in a way, the biggest competition it had would sell a fifth of its sales at best.

The absolute floor for GT (which was GT6) still sold better than every racing sim since its release combined. And that was on a semi-dead platform that killed the legs the franchise usually had.
 
SInce PES can't compete with Fifa I think it would be a great idea to make in a PSVita exclusive IP because they is no competition there.

I would love this but know a lot of people that would hate it, expecially not pstv is so hard to find in the UK, i got mine while in the US earlier this year. Plus a large part of the game for a lot of people is local (co-op/competative).

To be honest it is more likely that pes is just shelved as it is Konami and they seem to have lost intrest in most video game franchises
 

Alo0oy

Banned
I would love this but know a lot of people that would hate it, expecially not pstv is so hard to find in the UK, i got mine while in the US earlier this year. Plus a large part of the game for a lot of people is local (co-op/competative).

To be honest it is more likely that pes is just shelved as it is Konami and they seem to have lost intrest in most video game franchises

It still sells well in Latin America AFAIK.
 

noobie

Banned
Code:
Gen 7 last mainline entry:

[Week 45, 2012] HALO 4 (MICROSOFT) - 336,000 / NEW
[Week 38, 2011] GEARS OF WAR 3 (MICROSOFT) - 323,000 / NEW

Remake 1st chapter:

[Week 46, 2011] HALO: COMBAT EVOLVED ANNIVERSARY - 48,000 / NEW
[Week 35, 2015] GEARS OF WAR: ULTIMATE EDITION (MICROSOFT) ~ 40,000 / NEW

Gen 8 main entry:

[Week 44, 2015] HALO 5: GUARDIANS (MICROSOFT) - 150,000 / NEW
[Week 41, 2016] GEARS OF WAR 4 (MICROSOFT) - ?

That is some interesting analysis. So 120 - 180k should be the range for GOW4.
Btw just off topic.. but is there any Sony exclusive releasing in Fall 2016 after all the delays announcements.
 
Btw just off topic.. but is there any Sony exclusive releasing in Fall 2016 after all the delays announcements.

Gravity Rush 2 and The Last Guardian as far as "traditional" games goes, but there is also the PS VR games : RIGS, PlayStation VR Worlds and Driveclub VR are from Sony Worldwide Studios (or ex-studio in the case or Driveclub T_T)
 

viHuGi

Banned
That is some interesting analysis. So 120 - 180k should be the range for GOW4.
Btw just off topic.. but is there any Sony exclusive releasing in Fall 2016 after all the delays announcements.

The Last Guardian and Gravity Rush 2, niche tittles for sure but pretty awesome ones.

Some VR Games like Driveclub VR, RIGS and more.

2017 should start strong with Horizon Zero Dawn AND GT Sports (probably a bad game this one but still exclusive).

Edit : I forgot Persona V.
 

Three

Member
We obviously follow different people then. The vast majority of people I have seen talking about it online and in real life have been pretty positive on the whole.

Reviews say otherwise don't they. Game is a dud when it comes to WoM. Glad some in your circle are enjoying it though.
 

Bruno MB

Member
MCV said:
Retail banks on FIFA 17 to rejuvenate stagnant market

Retail buyers are banking on FIFA and Xbox One S to revitalise a struggling physical games market.

Last week&#8217;s major releases - including the new PS4 and PES 2017 - failed to rejuvenate the sector after a summer of low sales.

No Man&#8217;s Sky was a bright spot in a difficult period for boxed games, which included the worst sales month on record in July, and the lowest weekly figure for physical games - £3.9m was generated in the week ending September 10th, over half a million below the previous all-time low [GfK figures).

Sales were expected to improve last week with the arrival of an updated PS4, plus seven new games. Yet fewer than 85,000 new boxed releases were sold for the week ending September 17th.

But leading retailers are expecting a huge improvement over the coming weeks thanks to the Xbox One S launch and arrival of FIFA 17. Furthermore, retailers tell MCV that early pre-orders of the PS4 Pro in November are &#8216;extremely positive&#8217;.

&#8220;Xbox One S interest seems high. We may see 25,000 sales Week One,&#8221; said one leading games retail boss. &#8220;FIFA 17 pre-orders are also ahead of the curve our end.&#8221;

Code:
[B]ENTERTAINMENT SOFTWARE (ALL PRICES) June - September 2016 (May 29th - Sep 17th)[/B]

Weeks 22 - 37, 2016 - 3,432,169 units (-27.28%) / £100.5m (-29.77%)

This Summer has been pretty tough for the UK games retail market, sales were down by 30%. But looking on the bright side, the last quarter of the year which is the period that really matters is the more packed I remember in years hardware-wise with the release of PlayStation VR, PlayStation 4 Pro and also in terms of big profile games: FIFA 17, Gears of War 4, Battlefield 1, Titanfall 2, Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare, Watch Dogs 2, Pokemon Moon / Sun, Final Fantasy XV.

By the way, GamesMarkt October 2016 issue is already available and they haven't published their usual European market report for the first half of the year, so this year we won't have the top 20 best-selling games chart.
 
And mainline Forza?

Have a feeling FH3 is gonna have a huge opening (compared to the last 2). A lot of people got into the franchise with FH2 and amazing reviews should help it a ton.

Agreed. I'd be interested in seeing the openings for the Forza series in general. I think FH3 is going to open as one of the best in the series.
 

Bruno MB

Member
I was checking Forza series UK numbers and unfortunately the data is not as precise as I would like to, for some games we only have wide ranges, or upper bounds.

Code:
[Week 43, 2012] FORZA HORIZON (MICROSOFT) - <55,000 / NEW
[Week 40, 2014] FORZA HORIZON 2 (MICROSOFT) - 50,000-70,000 / NEW

[Week 43, 2009] FORZA MOTORSPORT 3 (MICROSOFT) - 80,000 / NEW
[Week 41, 2011] FORZA MOTORSPORT 4 (MICROSOFT) - 106,000 / NEW
[Week 47, 2013] FORZA MOTORSPORT 5 (MICROSOFT) - <67,000 / NEW
[Week 38, 2015] FORZA MOTORSPORT 6 (MICROSOFT) - 23,000-38,000 / NEW
 

Zedark

Member
I was checking Forza series UK numbers and unfortunately the data is not as precise as I would like to, for some games we only have wide ranges, or upper bounds.

Code:
[Week 43, 2012] FORZA HORIZON (MICROSOFT) - <55,000 / NEW
[Week 40, 2014] FORZA HORIZON 2 (MICROSOFT) - 50,000-70,000 / NEW

[Week 43, 2009] FORZA MOTORSPORT 3 (MICROSOFT) - 80,000 / NEW
[Week 41, 2011] FORZA MOTORSPORT 4 (MICROSOFT) - 106,000 / NEW
[Week 47, 2013] FORZA MOTORSPORT 5 (MICROSOFT) - <67,000 / NEW
[Week 38, 2015] FORZA MOTORSPORT 6 (MICROSOFT) - 23,000-38,000 / NEW

Wow, there's quite a drop between FM5 and FM6. Is any particular reason why this is the case?
 

Kyonashi

Member
How about we play a little game then?

Quote this with your guess on how many copies Gears 4 will sell and I'll edit them all into this post. We'll see who comes closest.

  • Primethius - 95k
  • bryanee - 97k
  • Ryng_tolu - 105k
  • LiquidSolid - 105k
  • DriftingSpirit - 110k
  • Katana_Strikes - 115k
  • Javin98 - 115k
  • Dinjooh - 118k
  • Zedark - 120k
  • Chobel - 125k
  • Rymuth - 130k
  • OléGunner - 130k
  • DeadOnions - 160k
  • Chris1 - 180k
 

timberger

Member
Recore debuted higher than I'd have thought, but I can see that all-important WOM killing it pretty quick.

Game was straight up trash.
 

Rymuth

Member
Wow, there's quite a drop between FM5 and FM6. Is any particular reason why this is the case?
We had a discussion about this a while back in 2015 - lot of reasons were thrown but the biggest seems to be public's perception that Forza is a yearly franchise (regardless of whether or not Horizon and the mainline are distinct) so that ended up cannibalizing the sales.

How about we play a little game then?

Quote this with your guess on how many copies Gears 4 will sell and I'll edit them all into this post. We'll see who comes closest.
Sooo...less The Price is Right Bruce and more Play Your Cards Right-era Bruce? I'm game.

130k
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Wait i don't understand, in what week XB1 sold 25,000?

EDIT: Oh ok was just a prediction... A prediction for the week of Fifa release i guess.
 
How about we play a little game then?

Quote this with your guess on how many copies Gears 4 will sell and I'll edit them all into this post. We'll see who comes closest.

I'm game. Given the current reception and how marketing is going, I'm going to go with:

Gears of War 4: 95k
 
We had a discussion about this a while back in 2015 - lot of reasons were thrown but the biggest seems to be public's perception that Forza is a yearly franchise (regardless of whether or not Horizon and the mainline are distinct) so that ended up cannibalizing the sales.
I think it's due to racing sim genre keep dropping if FH2 didn't drop at all.
 
UBISOFT TOPS YEAR-TO-DATE SALES AGAIN IN LATEST NPD AND GFK REPORTS

WHAT - In the most recent monthly sales report from market research firm the NPD Group in North American and in cumulated reports from GfK in Europe and NPD in Australia, Ubisoft again ranked first among all publishers in year-to-date sales. August is the sixth month in a row that Ubisoft has held the year-to-date sales lead in the United States, Canada, Europe and Australia. Ubisoft’s market share in Europe and Australia year-to-date is 14.9%, according to GfK and NPD1, and is 16% in the U.S. and 13% in Canada2.

HOW / WHY - The continued traction of Tom Clancy’s The Division, which is the top selling title year-to-date (1) (2); Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six Siege, which ranks among the top 10 games in August sales (2); and, Far Cry Primal, which is in the top ten year-to-date in sales (1) (2), helped Ubisoft retain its pole position. Ubisoft is delivering on its strategy of creating games with robust post-launch content, services and support.

WHEN - Rainbow Six Siege continues to engage players with a nearly 40% increase in active players since its latest update, Skull Rain. Players can look forward to more content from Tom Clancy’s The Division with the upcoming Expansion II: Survival and Expansion III: Last Stand. Additionally, Just Dance 2017 will launch on October 28 and Watch_Dogs 2 will launch on November 15. They will be followed by For Honor, Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon and South Park: The Fractured But Whole in early 2017.

(1) Based on retail sales only in Europe (France, Germany, UK, Benelux, Spain, Italy, Austria, Switzerland), and Australia

(2) According to NPD Group's retail and digital games tracking services for the U.S.
 

Bruno MB

Member
I was thinking about Microsoft first-party published titles, and it is quite baffling that practically the only title that didn't disappoint if we exclude Forza series was Titanfall that managed to sell 125,000 units in March 2014. At that time the system was only 4 months old and had an install base of around 500,000 units. And 2 and a half years later we are (rightfully) thinking that their biggest exclusive title for the upcoming holiday season and second biggest Microsoft IP will barely able to match what Titanfall did.
 
I was thinking about Microsoft first-party published titles, and it is quite baffling that practically the only title that didn't disappoint was Titanfall that managed to sell 125,000 units in March 2014. At that time the system was only 4 months old and had an install base of around 500,000 units. And 2 and a half years later we are thinking that their biggest exclusive title for the upcoming holiday season and second biggest Microsoft IP will barely able to match what Titanfall did.

Halo 5 couldn't beat a new IP, that must've been unexpected for Microsoft.
 

Chris1

Member
I was thinking about Microsoft first-party published titles, and it is quite baffling that practically the only title that didn't disappoint was Titanfall that managed to sell 125,000 units in March 2014. At that time the system was only 4 months old and had an install base of around 500,000 units. And 2 and a half years later we are thinking that their biggest exclusive title for the upcoming holiday season and second biggest Microsoft IP will barely able to match what Titanfall did.

I think people are underestimating it heavily. There's no way it sells less than Halo 5, Halo franchise had a lot of problems prior and a poor campaign with no local coop in 5 giving a low review score, Gears doesn't look to have any of those.

I'd be shocked if it does less than Halo 5.. I'm lowballing it at 180k prediction but I wouldn't be surprised to see over 200k.


or maybe I'm overestimating it haha, we'll find out I guess.

Halo 5 couldn't beat a new IP, that must've been unexpected for Microsoft.


Halo outsold Titanfall but not by much, it did about 150k to Titanfall's 125k, so it was still a disappointment (roughly half of what Halo used to do)
 
How about we play a little game then?

Quote this with your guess on how many copies Gears 4 will sell and I'll edit them all into this post. We'll see who comes closest.

I'll go with 115k as no ones guessed that yet :D

In fact I think I'm high balling it. It's got a good chance of being under 100k is my gut feeling but I'll be somewhat a bit more positive :p
 
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