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KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
No chance it hits that opening week.
good luck
AcademicSaucer
Member
Not with the 3DS version releasing the same day, PS4 version exists for he West
Mr. Pointy
Member
I'm going to say 3DS DQXI will sell close to 3 million LTD, PS4 DQXI will sell in the low-to-mid 1 million range LTD, and the Switch DQXI will come out end of 2017/January 2018 and sell less than 2 million LTD - more than the PS4 version, less than 3DS.
Could be wrong about the PS4 game though.
Could be wrong about the PS4 game though.
Square Enix already confirmed during the announcement that there will be system bundles which will be revealed later. Since this is huge game, I'd say the chances are high.
J
Jpop
Unconfirmed Member
Want to make an Avatar bet?
Mr. Pointy
Member
Is Dragon Quest leggy or front loaded?
Cmon, you don't bet with a Mario avatar against Playstation chances 😂
Rakuten Books Sales Ranking (2017.04.11)
01./01. [3DS] Monster Hunter XX <ACT> (Capcom)
02./02. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo)
03./03. [3DS] Mario Sports Super Stars <SPT> (Nintendo)
04./04. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands <ADV> (Ubisoft)
05./07. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn <ADV> (Sony Interactive)
Rakuten Books Pre-Orders Ranking (2017.04.11)
01./00. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time <RPG> (Square Enix)
02./00. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time <RPG> (Square Enix)
03./00. [3DS/PS4] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time (3DS + PS4 Set) <RPG> (Square Enix)
Something interesting we can see is how huge this Dragon Quest pre-orders were. Rakuten Books is most known for selling books (manga especially), CDs, DVDs and games, but their best selling products have been always been manga. In this sense, for example, Amazon possibly covers more marketshare regarding games. But, this time with DQXI, pre-orders were even higher than manga, and this doesn't always happen. MHXX or Pokémon never opened reservations higher in the daily ranking than the manga that is the best selling one that day.
----------
3DS version will be leggy and PS4 will be very frontloaded.
01./01. [3DS] Monster Hunter XX <ACT> (Capcom)
02./02. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo)
03./03. [3DS] Mario Sports Super Stars <SPT> (Nintendo)
04./04. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon: Wildlands <ADV> (Ubisoft)
05./07. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn <ADV> (Sony Interactive)
Rakuten Books Pre-Orders Ranking (2017.04.11)
01./00. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time <RPG> (Square Enix)
02./00. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time <RPG> (Square Enix)
03./00. [3DS/PS4] Dragon Quest XI: In Search of Departed Time (3DS + PS4 Set) <RPG> (Square Enix)
Something interesting we can see is how huge this Dragon Quest pre-orders were. Rakuten Books is most known for selling books (manga especially), CDs, DVDs and games, but their best selling products have been always been manga. In this sense, for example, Amazon possibly covers more marketshare regarding games. But, this time with DQXI, pre-orders were even higher than manga, and this doesn't always happen. MHXX or Pokémon never opened reservations higher in the daily ranking than the manga that is the best selling one that day.
----------
3DS version will be leggy and PS4 will be very frontloaded.
thestopsign
Member
Yes?
Dragon Quest IX (2009):
2.343.440/2.343.440
602.856/2.946.296
271.206/3.217.502
172.728/3.390.230
106.514/3.496.744
121.139/3.617.883
79.452/3.697.335
68.125/3.765.460
52.135/3.817.595
2009 YTD: 4.100.968
2010 YTD: 4.155.274 + Ultimate Hits 171.940 = 4.327.214
2011 YTD: 4.155.274 + Ultimate Hits 222.420 = 4.377.694
So FW was roughly 53% of sales, while also still having one of the highest opening weeks of all time behind Pokemon Black and White.
for laughs
so many jokers these days
at least this is a change from MH5 talks
J
Jpop
Unconfirmed Member
Pray tell why I don't want this bet? I'm all ears.
I'm not going to say it is impossible for this to happen, because it's DQ, but I wouldn't put any money on this. It's far from a sure thing.
I really wouldn't be so bold regarding the performance of either version yet.
This is the first multiplatform game of the series, and a very weird kind of multiplatform at that, even if most people would prefer the 3DS version I wouldn't jump the gun so much.
Final Fantasy XV's performance shouldn't be taken as an example of how Dragon Quest XI will do, even if I don't think it'll sell 1 million first week I also don't think its not going to be anywhere close.
Let the game sink in for a bit, promotion to start and whatnot.
This is the first multiplatform game of the series, and a very weird kind of multiplatform at that, even if most people would prefer the 3DS version I wouldn't jump the gun so much.
Final Fantasy XV's performance shouldn't be taken as an example of how Dragon Quest XI will do, even if I don't think it'll sell 1 million first week I also don't think its not going to be anywhere close.
Let the game sink in for a bit, promotion to start and whatnot.
AdventureRacing
Member
I don't think it's so crazy that the PS4 version could open to 1 million plus. FF is a seriously tainted brand and the fact that it failed to do so shouldn't immediately rule out DQ achieving that feat. The PS4 version will get heavy competition from the 3DS but the PS4 user base is already big enough to support an opening like that on its own.
I think DQ on PS4 will open close to or slightly over 1million but end up being fairly front loaded.
I also think the 3DS can still sell more than 3 million life time and with the switch this will be the best selling DQ of all time.
Of course that could be totally off the mark but it's fun making optimistic predictions.
I think DQ on PS4 will open close to or slightly over 1million but end up being fairly front loaded.
I also think the 3DS can still sell more than 3 million life time and with the switch this will be the best selling DQ of all time.
Of course that could be totally off the mark but it's fun making optimistic predictions.
There are these factors to consider:
- DQ is coming out on a Saturday, as usual, so we're talking about 2 days of sales for the "first week" here.
- DQVII -> DQVIII -> DQIX first week figures are something like 1.8 mil -> 2.1 mil -> 2.3 mil.
- DQXI is coming out 8 years after DQIX.
- In all the lifespan of the PS3 and PS4, the only single SKU million seller LTD in Japan is FFXIII on PS3. FFXV is almost there but not yet.
So it's really not just about how FF did. It's about how, even if people want to suggest that FF is a "tainted" brand, it is still the best performing title on Sony consoles in Japan today. What does that say about the active user base on these platforms then?
Furthermore, with an outlook that the best cast scenario for the first week (again, first two days) being ~2 million-ish, what sort of division are we really expecting here between 3DS and PS4? If you expect the 3DS to do more than 50% of the sales, then it's easy to see why 1 million in the first week is not assured in any way for the PS4 version.
I do think it's also worth considering those who would be buying both versions. Given the differences in the two releases, if DQXI outperforms DQIX, this will be the main factor.
- DQ is coming out on a Saturday, as usual, so we're talking about 2 days of sales for the "first week" here.
- DQVII -> DQVIII -> DQIX first week figures are something like 1.8 mil -> 2.1 mil -> 2.3 mil.
- DQXI is coming out 8 years after DQIX.
- In all the lifespan of the PS3 and PS4, the only single SKU million seller LTD in Japan is FFXIII on PS3. FFXV is almost there but not yet.
So it's really not just about how FF did. It's about how, even if people want to suggest that FF is a "tainted" brand, it is still the best performing title on Sony consoles in Japan today. What does that say about the active user base on these platforms then?
Furthermore, with an outlook that the best cast scenario for the first week (again, first two days) being ~2 million-ish, what sort of division are we really expecting here between 3DS and PS4? If you expect the 3DS to do more than 50% of the sales, then it's easy to see why 1 million in the first week is not assured in any way for the PS4 version.
I do think it's also worth considering those who would be buying both versions. Given the differences in the two releases, if DQXI outperforms DQIX, this will be the main factor.
It's more like people want to play it on a system they actually own.
This is a very accurate representation of what a Japanese apartment looks like after you remove any partitions, all furniture, and put in a TV, a few speakers, and two chairs.
PS4's install base will also be the lowest a brand new Dragon Quest game will be releasing on, by the release of VII, VIII and IX, the PS1, 2 and NDS were at 17m, 15m and 27m.
It'll likely be the lowest sinve V on the Super Famicom, and that one did some 500k FW.
VII also came out after the PS2, and did not met demand during first week.
It'll likely be the lowest sinve V on the Super Famicom, and that one did some 500k FW.
VII also came out after the PS2, and did not met demand during first week.
D.Lo
Member
So true, it really is not like any multi-plat I can remember. It's two completely different games in all but story and basic gameplay, if you're a big fan of course you would get both surely.
They are even selling a specific Double Pack version for fans who want that day one. Unfortunately, because of the exclusivity to the S-E eStore, Lawson, and HMV, I am not sure if that will be tracked by Famitsu or Media Create at all.
I agree with all of the above, but just want to point out that we should probably count FFXV as a million seller given the digital downloads. Speaking of which wonder if DQXI will beat FFXV digitally...
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
However Dragon Quest XI does, I hope it does well on all platforms! PS4 could use some higher-selling titles, 3DS is the platform with the most reach and allows for typical DQ-like sales, and the Switch version could push its growing install base further.
Like Okami said though, it should be interesting to see the marketing and interest for the game in the next three months.
Like Okami said though, it should be interesting to see the marketing and interest for the game in the next three months.
Yeh I'd say FFXV is a million seller, but it BARELY managed that in Japan sadly given that we had to count digital sales. I guess we'll find out if FFXV is indicative of the PS4 game's ceiling. I wouldn't be surprised if a future GTA6 or Minecraft and GTAV's steady sales eventually just overtake FFXV's LTD even lol.
J
Jpop
Unconfirmed Member
Putting it in other terms.
Expecting DQXI to open at 1M on the PS4 is expecting around ~22% of the PS4 userbase to purchase the game.
Take that same expectation and apply it to the 3DS, which is by far more popular than the PS4, and the 3DS version will launch ~4.5m.
Expecting DQXI to open at 1M on the PS4 is expecting around ~22% of the PS4 userbase to purchase the game.
Take that same expectation and apply it to the 3DS, which is by far more popular than the PS4, and the 3DS version will launch ~4.5m.
Graphics Horse
Member
There's probably 100s of old movie licences that fit that description
Square2015
Member
Ōkami;233770982 said:
Higher than 500k
Possibly up to 680k (using the formula that works for other SW)
It did nearly the same amount the second week, then legged out for almost a year.
Note: famitsu appeared to overreport DQV sales (make up for underreporting DQIV sales?).
AdventureRacing
Member
Big openings like this don't tend to scale with user base. What was the PS3 user base when FFXIII released and what's the likely user base of PS4 when DQXI will release. Not exactly comparable but it does show you can have big openings on a smaller user base (I do realise that was an exception though).
I'm thinking more like 800K opening week with a chance of going 1 million plus on the PS4 alone.
J
Jpop
Unconfirmed Member
The point is that expecting 1M is unrealistic as an opening just like expecting 4.5m is unrealistic.
I think a 2M launch would be good. (3DS + PS4)
70% 3DS
30% PS4
1.4M vs 600k
Regarding the Switch version, its rather interesting to speculate how it could do.
These late ports typically don't do well in Japan, but they're typically not Dragon Quest either, so that logic can't apply. Regardless, when they do well is when the console they originally released on didn't had the right audience, think of how when Wii or 360 RPGs got ported to the PS3 they sold much better, though that doesn't really apply to the Switch here.
At least depending on when it comes out and what the value proposition is, it could do pretty well, but I'd still expect for it to be the worst selling version of the game, especially if it doesn't release this year.
A version of the PS4 game with added bonuses would be the best outcome I'd say, the enhanced graphics of the PS4 version could entice 3DS players as the game would at least look different and they could add what the typically add in remakes, a couple of dungeons, bosses and playable characters, if its priced correctly it could go well.
Though if it indeed releases this year, say December, it could be the Switch big holiday game, if priced correctly, else it could be ignored in favour of something like Splatoon or Mario.
Also Dragon Quest X on PS4 seems to release after XI, while on Switch it'll probably be the opposite.
These late ports typically don't do well in Japan, but they're typically not Dragon Quest either, so that logic can't apply. Regardless, when they do well is when the console they originally released on didn't had the right audience, think of how when Wii or 360 RPGs got ported to the PS3 they sold much better, though that doesn't really apply to the Switch here.
At least depending on when it comes out and what the value proposition is, it could do pretty well, but I'd still expect for it to be the worst selling version of the game, especially if it doesn't release this year.
A version of the PS4 game with added bonuses would be the best outcome I'd say, the enhanced graphics of the PS4 version could entice 3DS players as the game would at least look different and they could add what the typically add in remakes, a couple of dungeons, bosses and playable characters, if its priced correctly it could go well.
Though if it indeed releases this year, say December, it could be the Switch big holiday game, if priced correctly, else it could be ignored in favour of something like Splatoon or Mario.
Also Dragon Quest X on PS4 seems to release after XI, while on Switch it'll probably be the opposite.
The Venn Diagram of people who care about graphics and fans of Dragon Quest is going to be an interesting one.
I'm thinking DQ XI does about 750k at the end of the day on PS4. If it had come out before the 3DS version maybe it does a million. If the Switch is that version then the HD version will probably do over a million combined.
I'm thinking DQ XI does about 750k at the end of the day on PS4. If it had come out before the 3DS version maybe it does a million. If the Switch is that version then the HD version will probably do over a million combined.
Not... really? The PS3 had a smaller installed base when FFXIII was released and it did over a million. By the time DQXI is released, PS4 will be >5 million, plus whatever bump it gives the console on that week.
The problem isn't attach ratio or installed base at all. It is really a question of how many active users who would buy a game like that on such a console today. That's where the market dynamics have changed. It's just like how you can see a huge installed base on Wii not helping move big numbers for titles like Xenoblade and The Last Story.
D.Lo
Member
The results are similar (for example for DS/Wii games which had the same title as a PS360 game), but it's not like this.
For one thing, the 3DS version is basically the main ('real'?) version. Unlike a DS 2D platformer by a completely different developer released alongside the 'main' PS3 version by the publisher, eg 'The Simpsons game'. But PS4 isn't just an upscale either, like RE:Revelatioms.
It's almost like the PS4 version is a remake, it's just being released day and date.
Um, if the story and basic gameplay are the same, how is it two completely different games?
I would say FFIV and FFIV DS are totally different games other than having a similar story. One sucks, the other doesn't!
Problem is, price cuts are usually in the Autumn to capitalise on the shopping spree of that time. The last time a PS console had a price cut not in the Autumn was Vita, when they were trying to save it. I don't think PS4 is in need of so much saving as the Vita was back then.
D.Lo
Member
See my post above, everything else is so different it's like a remake rather than the 'same' game.
Mr. Pointy
Member
I think the combined FW of DQXI will be somewhere around the 2.5 million mark. You can all argue what the split will be like.
AdventureRacing
Member
It's a false equivalence. Attach rates don't grow linearly with user base. No game has ever launched to 4.5 million regardless of user base. However games have opened to more than 1 million on a smaller user base than what the PS4 will have when DQXI releases. I don't see how that comparison makes any sense.
Selling 1 million opening week is a stretch and I'm not saying it will definitely happen but it's not impossible.
Sub million what?
500k PS4 FW