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MatPiscatella · May 20, 2017

Thanks for the great responses everyone. And for the kind words. It's appreciated.

Bunch of responses below. Really dig everyone's insights and thoughts. Lots to think about, particularly around Japanese development and backwards compatibility impact. Interesting times.

Mister Megative said:
But Mat, salesGAF told me everything is dead.

I thought everything was dad?

Mpl90 said:
Yeah, MK8D and Zelda will still sell alongside the console for quite a while, as well as Splatoon 2 once it comes out, but I wonder how a game like Arms can fare, mainly if it could join the MK8D / Zelda / soon S2 train at least for a while

First time I saw Arms I... I didn't know what to think. Who knows, it could be a sleeper hit. After Splatoon anything's possible.

Mpl90 said:
I think that the invasion of games following way too specific guidelines way too frequently has started to become tiring for an increasing subset of the overall gaming consumer base that is now more ready to try something different

Yep. Angry dudes with beards fatigue. I think there's absolutely something to the desire to try different kinds of games that's finding more mass appeal these days, and Japanese development is meeting that demand.

Mpl90 said:
What happened with Wii U and 3DS discouraged several publishers to bring those kind of games on Nintendo platforms, and it's right (but unfortunate) that they were cautious before Switch's launch, and it's comprehensible they can still be cautious in spite of the first few months and software results. I still hope things can improve at a decent pace especially in the later part of the year

Add the Wii to the list. But sure, this absolutely caused reluctance to get out and support the Switch in big ways. But now that the thing is in the wild, I think those perceptions are changing a bit?

Welfare said:
This must have been said before but just to refresh my memory, what is NES Classic classified as to NPD? Hardware, Accessory, Toy?

It's considered a plug n play console in hardware. Yeah, so these were actually moved to the console segment because we figured the NES Classic could potentially be a top 3 unit seller.

Welfare said:
Speaking of PS4/XB1, can you post the LTD gen over comparison with PS3/360?

29.3%

Welfare said:
can you go a bit more in detail about "aren't slouching"?

Just that I'm not seeing anything in the data that's making me want to change my 2017 or future year outlook across the combined installed base. I'm not seeing any negative impact on combined sales of PS4/Xone due to Switch launch, they're chugging along basically as I expected them to given the point of the lifecycle we're at. I doubt that's specific enough, but there are no surprises in these curves to me, I guess that's probably the best way to put it?

Welfare said:
I've seen YouTubers and "news" sites twist your words on Scorpio performance it kind of made me mad listening to them. Just passive aggressive behavior about "no way Scorpio is such a success" and how some have taken your words on the US market and try pushing that you meant worldwide LTD or just US LTD, not US YTD 2017.

LOL. Maybe it won't be a huge success. Maybe it doesn't push Xone ahead this year. I mean, I'd think it's more likely Scorpio doesn't push Xone ahead of the PS4 this year. But, a not inconsequential potential exists that it could. It's fine, there's no subtlety on the internet. Is what it is, doesn't bother me. My checks keep clearing.

Welfare said:
So would you say PS4 Pro was a good investment for Sony?

If the intention with Pro was what they said it was... to give a higher end option for that sub segment of core gamers that might defect to PC in the latter part of the cycle, then absolutely it should be considered a success. I think it's done that.

Welfare said:
Revenue spikes for other big BC titles would be interesting to know about. Red Dead Redemption and Black Ops 1 would be other big titles that might have had a chance to get in the top 20. Blops 2's performance in May will be something to look to.

Going to try to get into this later this week. To be honest, I hadn't really been paying attention to it, and Sam was the one who started digging into it. More to come, this is... a very interesting development.

Welfare said:
Switch couldn't have come at a better time I think.

No joke.

Welfare · May 20, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
It's considered a plug n play console in hardware. Yeah, so these were actually moved to the console segment because we figured the NES Classic could potentially be a top 3 unit seller.

Yeah, NES could be (is/was) a top 3 seller, but Nintendo isn't trying to sell them all year long. Successor's like SNES and N64 can be holiday event products.

29.3%

Thanks!

I get a LTD of 35,359,000 for PS4/XB1, so subtracting the total we calculated from March (~35,040,000), that's ~320K total for April?

Just that I'm not seeing anything in the data that's making me want to change my 2017 or future year outlook across the combined installed base. I'm not seeing any negative impact on combined sales of PS4/Xone due to Switch launch, they're chugging along basically as I expected them to given the point of the lifecycle we're at. I doubt that's specific enough, but there are no surprises in these curves to me, I guess that's probably the best way to put it?

That's actually plenty, thanks. Nothing out of the ordinary even with a new console launch.

Going to try to get into this later this week. To be honest, I hadn't really been paying attention to it, and Sam was the one who started digging into it. More to come, this is... a very interesting development.

Yeah, it's one of those things that is a hidden surprise thanks to a resurgence in backlog software selling more when people have more options on buying them.

Besides launch revenue, looking into how long the initial rush of a game going BC lasts is something to look for. Is it one big boom with everyone buying it as soon as possible and little buy later, or does going BC actually boost numbers long past the release?

jroc74 · May 21, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
Just that I'm not seeing anything in the data that's making me want to change my 2017 or future year outlook across the combined installed base. I'm not seeing any negative impact on combined sales of PS4/Xone due to Switch launch, they're chugging along basically as I expected them to given the point of the lifecycle we're at. I doubt that's specific enough, but there are no surprises in these curves to me, I guess that's probably the best way to put it?

This is what I am interested in.

Will the success of the Switch have a negative impact on PS4/XBO sales.

If not, even if the Switch was the best selling console the entire year, 2nd, even 3rd place shouldnt be looked down on. When it comes to sales alot of things need to be taken into perspective.

hanspampel · May 22, 2017

Welfare said:
Thanks!

I get a LTD of 35,359,000 for PS4/XB1, so subtracting the total we calculated from March (~35,040,000), that's ~320K total for April?

without knowing anything, this feels right
don't see how Xb1 / Ps4 should be up YoY this month
May will follow and June very likely, too

Q1 was flat or slightly up YoY (low single digit)
Q2 should be down in high single digit or low double digit
i see growth potential for Q3 again depending on Scorpio release, RDR2 launch and Ps4 Bundles

speaking of:
Mat you're allowed to talk about Xb1 / Ps4 relative performance over last gen
what about quarterly Xb1 / Ps4 performance over the previous year?
possible you could give a percentage figure for that, or is that already to much?

jmaine_ph · May 22, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
Thought I'd share some additional thoughts around the month, as requested. It's the first go at this, so if there are recommendations for improvement I'm open.

Hardware

The big news is obviously the Nintendo Switch. Supply constraints and inventory are absolutely an issue. It's difficult, obviously, to estimate what potential sales could have been. In any case, a very impressive month 2 for what has been a surprise even for me (I've been very bullish on the Switch since announce). It will take time to ramp up the supply chain. It's not like you can flip a switch (heh) and get units off a line. But, with the one big title a month-ish strategy, and an improving supply chain, and Mario Odyssey at the end of the year, I remain bullish. Is this the next Wii? Well, I'm not ready to go there yet. Early signs are encouraging, however, and 3-4.5m US in 2017 is certainly within reach, assuming that the 10m ww ship number is a cap.

NES Classic was also a big seller, as mentioned in the release. There's not much else to be said here. The NES Classic was a phenomenon, and I'm hoping we get more of these kinds of systems in the future.

Now, Nintendo has been the big news, but the PS4 and Xbox One aren't slouching. I still forecast the time aligned PS4 and Xbox One installed base to exceed that of the PS2 and Xbox sometime later this year, and to be significantly ahead of PS3 and Xbox 360. The data suggests to me that software exclusives are having a meaningful impact here, and I expect to see Sony continue it's strategy of one primary bundle at a time, while I also expect Microsoft to maintain a variety bundle strategy, but toned down from a year ago. We'll have to wait and see on that. In any case, console sales are not a zero sum game. And I'm not even certain the Switch is directly competing with the PS4 and Xbox One. Maybe it is now? But by holiday, I'm not so certain.

In any case, E3 is going to tell us a lot. I'm assuming that Microsoft didn't announce the Scorpio so early without intention of making significant waves in June with content, services and price. I've gotten flak on the interwebs for my 600k 2017 number, and for saying that Scorpio has the potential to push Xone sales ahead of PS4 in this calendar year (not life to date). This is predicated on a lot of assumptions though. An attractive price point, significant content support, (R)evolutionary services, and some surprises on top. I just don't think so many smart people would announce so early unless they were very confident of what is coming. My number could end up being WAY off, and that's fine. The number is more prophecy than forecast given known factors. I want to believe.

PS4 is in a wonderfully good spot. Everything they're doing so far seems to be working quite well for the hardware. They just have to avoid screwing anything up, and I don't see them doing anything that would make things go sideways.

Software

Where to begin.

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe did fantastic. Zelda is going to be on the top 10 for quite a while as well it seems. Not much more needs to be said here. Keep 'em coming.

Persona 5 though. I was thinking, okay, maybe Persona 5 gets to the top 5. I certainly wasn't expecting #2, even without digital. Now, JRPGs tend to be very heavy in month 1 on their decay curves. We'll have to see how it holds up over time. Regardless, just an incredibly impressive month. The premium edition also did exceptionally well, and reflects a new trend of higher priced, premium editions taking higher share for major releases over time. Day 1 consumers and fans are becoming more and more price insensitive - and higher priced SKUs are selling better and better. Now, this doesn't apply once you get 3-6 months down the line, but in launch month premium editions are becoming a bigger share of the pie, and I think we're going to see a lot more of these editions featuring a ton of digital content for GaaS games in particular.

BLOPS II on the list was also a big surprise. And remember, this chart is revenue based, so you're talking some pretty big units. Some folks out there are saying that backwards compatibility isn't a big deal to the market as a whole. Maybe not. However, it is a huge deal for companies planning long-range support for their titles, and in setting up their products to have long-term success. Of course, we're not talking about just some mid-tier game, it is COD we're talking about. Still, the days of a 12 week new release decay curve followed by quick markdowns to $19.99 within a year are ending (exception being titles with significant channel inventory concerns).

Speaking of COD, I'm convinced COD:WWII will give the franchise a nice rebound from last year. I'm expecting growth in the 30% range at least. The response to BLOPS II going back compat certainly gives me more confidence that a traditional, boots on the ground COD game is going to find an audience.

Everyone always asks "who is buying GTAV". Stop asking that. It's new console buyers. Clear correlation between GTAV sales and hardware sales. Science.

And MLB The Show... WOW. Knocked it out of the park (rimshot.gif) this year.

One note from the release that's been overlooked is that 7 publishers are on the top 10 for switch. Now, you're likely to say "well duh, Nintendo's only made a few games". That's missing the point though. The sales of the rest of the top 10 are pretty darn good. Point is, folks putting games on the Switch are finding success. I expect more support to come quickly. Ports at first, particularly from smaller digital only games that are easier to move. But I also expect more 'core' games to show up as well. The Switch is a great device for playing video games. I expect people that love making games to want to put their games on it.

Summary

I couldn't be more encouraged with April results. HW, SW and ACC all had a great month. Switch and Persona 5 drove the growth, but the core boxes are combining to be right on track to where they should be at this point in the cycle. And software is doing very well. Digital and Packaged growth happening at the same time, which gives me additional confidence in my long-held belief that Digital full game sales are more incremental than cannibalistic to Physical. But I will rant on that another day.

Hope this is helpful. Interested in your thoughts.

Thanks for this write up Mat. Great read. 👍🏾

MatPiscatella · May 22, 2017

hanspampel said:
what about quarterly Xb1 / Ps4 performance over the previous year?

I'll look into being able to talk about this level of detail, but I wouldn't get hopes up.

jroc74 said:
Will the success of the Switch have a negative impact on PS4/XBO sales.

Seeing no data that is suggesting this, at least not yet. Holiday will be interesting if Switch momentum keeps up. But so many factors will be at play in holiday that determining just what aspect of the market caused what change becomes exceptionally difficult, most likely impossible.

Welfare said:
Besides launch revenue, looking into how long the initial rush of a game going BC lasts is something to look for. Is it one big boom with everyone buying it as soon as possible and little buy later, or does going BC actually boost numbers long past the release?

Too early to answer this question now, but it is certainly an interesting question I'm sure I'll be spending some time on!

lwilliams3 · May 22, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
Thought I'd share some additional thoughts around the month, as requested. It's the first go at this, so if there are recommendations for improvement I'm open.

Hardware

The big news is obviously the Nintendo Switch. Supply constraints and inventory are absolutely an issue. It's difficult, obviously, to estimate what potential sales could have been. In any case, a very impressive month 2 for what has been a surprise even for me (I've been very bullish on the Switch since announce). It will take time to ramp up the supply chain. It's not like you can flip a switch (heh) and get units off a line. But, with the one big title a month-ish strategy, and an improving supply chain, and Mario Odyssey at the end of the year, I remain bullish. Is this the next Wii? Well, I'm not ready to go there yet. Early signs are encouraging, however, and 3-4.5m US in 2017 is certainly within reach, assuming that the 10m ww ship number is a cap.

NES Classic was also a big seller, as mentioned in the release. There's not much else to be said here. The NES Classic was a phenomenon, and I'm hoping we get more of these kinds of systems in the future.

Now, Nintendo has been the big news, but the PS4 and Xbox One aren't slouching. I still forecast the time aligned PS4 and Xbox One installed base to exceed that of the PS2 and Xbox sometime later this year, and to be significantly ahead of PS3 and Xbox 360. The data suggests to me that software exclusives are having a meaningful impact here, and I expect to see Sony continue it's strategy of one primary bundle at a time, while I also expect Microsoft to maintain a variety bundle strategy, but toned down from a year ago. We'll have to wait and see on that. In any case, console sales are not a zero sum game. And I'm not even certain the Switch is directly competing with the PS4 and Xbox One. Maybe it is now? But by holiday, I'm not so certain.

In any case, E3 is going to tell us a lot. I'm assuming that Microsoft didn't announce the Scorpio so early without intention of making significant waves in June with content, services and price. I've gotten flak on the interwebs for my 600k 2017 number, and for saying that Scorpio has the potential to push Xone sales ahead of PS4 in this calendar year (not life to date). This is predicated on a lot of assumptions though. An attractive price point, significant content support, (R)evolutionary services, and some surprises on top. I just don't think so many smart people would announce so early unless they were very confident of what is coming. My number could end up being WAY off, and that's fine. The number is more prophecy than forecast given known factors. I want to believe.

PS4 is in a wonderfully good spot. Everything they're doing so far seems to be working quite well for the hardware. They just have to avoid screwing anything up, and I don't see them doing anything that would make things go sideways.

Software

Where to begin.

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe did fantastic. Zelda is going to be on the top 10 for quite a while as well it seems. Not much more needs to be said here. Keep 'em coming.

Persona 5 though. I was thinking, okay, maybe Persona 5 gets to the top 5. I certainly wasn't expecting #2, even without digital. Now, JRPGs tend to be very heavy in month 1 on their decay curves. We'll have to see how it holds up over time. Regardless, just an incredibly impressive month. The premium edition also did exceptionally well, and reflects a new trend of higher priced, premium editions taking higher share for major releases over time. Day 1 consumers and fans are becoming more and more price insensitive - and higher priced SKUs are selling better and better. Now, this doesn't apply once you get 3-6 months down the line, but in launch month premium editions are becoming a bigger share of the pie, and I think we're going to see a lot more of these editions featuring a ton of digital content for GaaS games in particular.

BLOPS II on the list was also a big surprise. And remember, this chart is revenue based, so you're talking some pretty big units. Some folks out there are saying that backwards compatibility isn't a big deal to the market as a whole. Maybe not. However, it is a huge deal for companies planning long-range support for their titles, and in setting up their products to have long-term success. Of course, we're not talking about just some mid-tier game, it is COD we're talking about. Still, the days of a 12 week new release decay curve followed by quick markdowns to $19.99 within a year are ending (exception being titles with significant channel inventory concerns).

Speaking of COD, I'm convinced COD:WWII will give the franchise a nice rebound from last year. I'm expecting growth in the 30% range at least. The response to BLOPS II going back compat certainly gives me more confidence that a traditional, boots on the ground COD game is going to find an audience.

Everyone always asks "who is buying GTAV". Stop asking that. It's new console buyers. Clear correlation between GTAV sales and hardware sales. Science.

And MLB The Show... WOW. Knocked it out of the park (rimshot.gif) this year.

One note from the release that's been overlooked is that 7 publishers are on the top 10 for switch. Now, you're likely to say "well duh, Nintendo's only made a few games". That's missing the point though. The sales of the rest of the top 10 are pretty darn good. Point is, folks putting games on the Switch are finding success. I expect more support to come quickly. Ports at first, particularly from smaller digital only games that are easier to move. But I also expect more 'core' games to show up as well. The Switch is a great device for playing video games. I expect people that love making games to want to put their games on it.

Summary

I couldn't be more encouraged with April results. HW, SW and ACC all had a great month. Switch and Persona 5 drove the growth, but the core boxes are combining to be right on track to where they should be at this point in the cycle. And software is doing very well. Digital and Packaged growth happening at the same time, which gives me additional confidence in my long-held belief that Digital full game sales are more incremental than cannibalistic to Physical. But I will rant on that another day.

Hope this is helpful. Interested in your thoughts.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Also thanks for giving us a little info on how well Switch's software is doing. This type of launch is serving the system a lot better than the Wii U that had a lot more games but no real system seller. The Switch presence is good for the whole gaming industry, so I'm glad that Nintendo and the publishers are having success.

Hero · May 23, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
I've been thinking A LOT about this question. There had been a trend a few years going where Japanese developed games were gaining in strength, but then FFXV hit with the biggest physical launch ever for a FF game in the US. The Souls series started as some weird niche and then continued to become much more mainstream and started influencing development of many other games. And now, a few months later we see Persona 5 become a legit hit.

I think there are a lot of reasons for this shift, but I'm not certain one in particular stands out.

First, the publishers and developers of these games have become far more proactive and engaged in distributing, marketing and promoting these games with retailers and the US consumer base. Back in the day, these games would just kind of show up and sell to the niche. Now, these games are being treated like big mainline releases.

Second, influencers/media have been active in bringing the profile of these games higher, particularly Persona. Whether it was Greg Miller or Giant Bomb or whomever, Persona 4 Golden was in the conversation for months/years. And these are people that grew up with games like FF7, right? So these games aren't some weird novelty, these are games that speak to a generation in a gaming language they've spoken since they were kids.

Third, I can't help but think a game like Persona 4 on the Vita of all things is a bit of a factor. That game sold amazingly well, received active discounting and promotion for a very long period, and I think it built the brand. People had more opportunities to engage with Persona, and really set the stage for Persona 5. This could be me being influenced by my own experience with Persona 4, but that seemed to be THE game on the system? It's weird to think a Vita title could have carried such influence, but I'm leaning that it did, for right or wrong.

And of course, the incredible work of the artists, gameplay designers and engineers that create these games. They're taking risks in a market that has been full of action/shooty/rpg games featuring very few characters that aren't angry dudes with beards. I'm generalizing here, but you're not getting characters like those in Persona 5 in western developed games at the moment. And that allows people that play these games to identify with and enjoy spending time with these characters they're not finding in the latest AAA releases.

So I'm not really certain, but the data is very clear that these kinds of games are gaining in sales strength and should continue to influence the market for some time going forward.

I tweeted the other day that I think this is the golden age for JRPGs, but it really could be for Japanese development as a whole. Which is kinda nuts if you think back just a few short years and look at the landscape. But here we are.

Hey Mat, good to see you again. Thanks for stopping by and continuing to participate here, it's truly appreciated. Just wanted to say I really enjoy this particular post. At the beginning of this cycle with PS4/XB1 I was worried for Japanese games but this year has been crushing it.

donny2112 · May 24, 2017

Apparently, I hadn't posted the GAF Aggregate, yet.

NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Apr-2017

1. NSW - 475K
2. PS4 - 204K
3. XB1 - 132K

------------------

Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, to prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 3 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.

NeoGAF Prediction Results - April 2017

Units

1. Mr Swine
2. jroc74
3. ethomaz

Points

Code:

     April 2017                      Overall 2017 Top (3/4)
01.  Mr Swine               ---.--   ethomaz                ---.--
02.  jroc74                 ---.--   Primethius             ---.--
03.  Primethius             ---.--   noobie                 ---.--
04.                         ---.--   BlackBuzzard           ---.--
05.                         ---.--   Raylan                 ---.--
06.                         ---.--   Kayant                 ---.--
07.                         ---.--   mejin                  ---.--
08.                         ---.--   jroc74                 ---.--
09.                         ---.--   Sterok                 ---.--
10.                         ---.--   Fdkn                   ---.--
11.                         ---.--   jayu26                 ---.--
12.                         ---.--   Sangetsu-II            ---.--
13.                         ---.--   kyser73                ---.--
14.                         ---.--   theprodigy             ---.--
15.                         ---.--   Trust me, I'm a PhD    ---.--
16.                         ---.--   CorporateClown         ---.--
17.                         ---.--   freefornow             ---.--
18.                         ---.--   Elandyll               ---.--
19.                         ---.--   donny2112              ---.--
20.                         ---.--   vivekTO                ---.--
21.                         ---.--   Ravage_Hydra           ---.--
22.                         ---.--   Rymuth                 ---.--
23.                         ---.--   allan-bh               ---.--
24.                         ---.--   robo                   ---.--
25.                         ---.--   pitseleh               ---.--
26.                         ---.--   archnemesis            ---.--
27.                         ---.--   jjonez18               ---.--
28.                         ---.--   Cow Goes Moo           ---.--
29.                         ---.--   Bitch Pudding          ---.--
30.                         ---.--   Welfare                ---.--
31.                         ---.--   Bruno MB               ---.--
32.                         ---.--   Shizza                 ---.--
33.                         ---.--   noshten                ---.--
34.                         ---.--   Hammer24               ---.--
35.                         ---.--   KillerMan91            ---.--
36.                         ---.--   Darth Smurf X          ---.--
37.                         ---.--   Stanng243              ---.--
38.                         ---.--   Chobel                 ---.--
39.                         ---.--   1993dan1               ---.--
40.                         ---.--   astrogamer             ---.--
41.                         ---.--   Shock32                ---.--
42.                         ---.--   sirronoh               ---.--
43.                         ---.--   slavesnyder            ---.--
44.                         ---.--   Pachter                ---.--
45.                         ---.--   Opt1kon_               ---.--
46.                         ---.--   Kill3r7                ---.--
47.                         ---.--   skedar897              ---.--
48.                         ---.--   GifGafIsTheBestGaf     ---.--
49.                         ---.--   RexNovis               ---.--
50.                         ---.--   Conduit                ---.--

Congratulations, Mr Swine!

Note:
Mr Swine predicted twice, so it was the last one that counted.

Primethius · May 24, 2017

Oh baby, I'm #3 for points.

Congrats Mr. Swine on the win.

donny2112 · May 24, 2017

Since not all the results are public, this is a "Just for Fun" ranking. The way it works is that the #1 predictor for the month using the actual results is assumed to be 100% correct, and everyone else is measured accordingly. These results are not official and not used in the annual rankings. Since the real results can't be shown, these are a substitute to be used "Just for Fun." (^_^)

NeoGAF "Just for Fun" Prediction Results - April 2017
Note: Uses #1 predictor as "truth" and measures everyone else relative to them.

1. Mr Swine - 0
2. jroc74 - 42,000
3. donny2112 - 43,000
4. noobie - 44,000
5. ethomaz - 45,000
6. Sangetsu-II - 48,000
7. CorporateClown - 54,000
8. Jigorath - 55,000
9. BlackBuzzard - 58,000
9. kyser73 - 58,000
11. Fdkn - 61,000
12. LordOcidax - 63,000
13. Shizza - 71,000
13. archnemesis - 71,000
15. sirronoh - 73,000
16. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 74,000
17. pitseleh - 86,000
18. YaBish - 101,000
19. jayu26 - 102,000
20. astrogamer - 106,000
21. Primethius - 107,000
22. WillySJ3 - 113,000
23. Prototype Viktor - 114,000
24. Hammer24 - 118,000
25. Kayant - 122,000
25. Welfare - 122,000
27. KillerMan91 - 126,000
28. Lelou - 131,000
29. harrisk954 - 132,000
30. Darth Smurf X - 133,000
31. freefornow - 134,000
32. NeoMetallix - 138,000
33. Bitch Pudding - 143,000
33. theprodigy - 143,000
35. noshten - 160,000
36. Elandyll - 171,000
37. 1993dan1 - 172,000
38. GAF_Agg - 174,400
39. Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule - 183,000
39. r3ddvil - 183,000
41. Chobel - 193,000
42. skedar897 - 199,000
43. Kill3r7 - 202,000
44. Deku89 - 203,000
45. slavesnyder - 205,000
46. jonno394 - 211,000
47. Speely - 213,000
48. Opt1kon_ - 221,000
49. Shock32 - 223,000
50. Cow Goes Moo - 231,000
50. Rymuth - 231,000
52. Pachter - 238,000
53. Stanng243 - 263,000
54. MTC100 - 266,000
55. Zedark - 273,000
56. Lexxism - 278,000
57. robo - 287,000
58. Duxxy3 - 293,000
59. vivekTO - 313,000
60. Gaspard - 331,000
61. ThatRandomCliff - 352,432
62. Vic - 358,000
63. perfectchaos007 - 371,000
64. Melkr_ - 374,000
65. OfficerRaichu15 - 378,000
66. sinonobu - 383,000
67. Tubie - 401,000
68. Sterok - 403,000
69. Eliseo - 424,000
70. Graben - 433,000
71. Graphics Horse - 444,000
72. Hattori - 477,000
73. Calm Mind - 531,000
74. Neptonic - 555,000
75. Smiles and Cries - 592,000
76. mikey1123 - 736,000

WillySJ3 · May 24, 2017

SWITCH killed my prediction. Better luck next month

Sangetsu-II · May 24, 2017

No. 6 fuck yeah!

I knew it

Welfare · May 24, 2017

Trying to back those numbers out (I must!) and it looks like PS4 is at least 200K, and XB1 is at most 127K.

hanspampel · May 24, 2017

Welfare said:
Trying to back those numbers out (I must!) and it looks like PS4 is at least 200K, and XB1 is at most 127K.

Thought both Ps4 and Xb1 were down YoY in April
Or full year 2017. How are those numbers possible?

MatPiscatella said:
No. But in the 5th calendar year of existence they shouldn't be. Both big boxes were down in 2016 versus prior year, showing very normal mid-cycle dynamics. Nothing's changed that would reverse that so far this year. Maybe Scorpio and a 2nd holiday of Pro will help? I don't know for certain.

Welfare · May 24, 2017

hanspampel said:
Thought both Ps4 and Xb1 were down YoY in April
Or full year 2017. How are those numbers possible?

The question was "is every current platform up YoY?" and seeing as the only current consoles that were out last year were PS4 and XB1, PS4 can be up and XB1 down and "No" is true.

OfficerRaichu15 · May 24, 2017

Hey Mat I'm not sure if you can answer this but did 1 2 Switch and Bomberman hold steady in April?
Also did Puyo Puyo Tetris come in the top 20?
Thanks!

hanspampel · May 24, 2017

This stuff is getting to much guesswork for my taste now.

Just wait for May and Nintendo not reveal any hard numbers...

BlackBuzzard · May 24, 2017

9 baybee!

Gaspard · May 24, 2017

Went from 2 to 60

So much for overestimating Nintendo shipments

Trust me. I'm a PhD · May 24, 2017

Thank you, Donny^^ Man, dropping my Switch numbers by almost 100K saved my butt, but even then they were too high. Happy to still be keeping higher than I usually am, especially for the year. See you all next month^^

Chobel · May 24, 2017

Switch destroyed my prediction.

kyser73 · May 24, 2017

Wooo! Equal 8th!

MatPiscatella · May 24, 2017

Hero said:
At the beginning of this cycle with PS4/XB1 I was worried for Japanese games but this year has been crushing it.

Yep. It is very difficult/impossible to know what the sales expectations were for some of these games. So it's really tough to know if publishers are happy until earnings are released with peripheral commentary. But, from a pure sales perspective, a lot of these games are doing very well compared to market and historical benchmarks.

OfficerRaichu15 said:
Hey Mat I'm not sure if you can answer this but did 1 2 Switch and Bomberman hold steady in April?

99.999% titles (with the exception of some November releases) will experience some type of sales decay from month 1 to month 2.

OfficerRaichu15 said:
Also did Puyo Puyo Tetris come in the top 20?

On Switch? Sure. There aren't 20 packaged games on the platform in distribution yet. Total market? Check out the top 20 chart.

lwilliams3 said:
The Switch presence is good for the whole gaming industry.

I agree, and I certainly agree in the context of having more successful platforms being good for sales growth, and sales growth is good for maintaining and expanding development investment, which fuels more growth etc etc. Always good to see consumers being happy enough with products and services to make them a success.

ethomaz · May 24, 2017

I'm on fire this year

3rd on units.
1st overall 2017.

My predictions are getting close and close.

Thank you for the results Donny.

Edit - Looking at my prediction 150k for XB1 was too high... I could be 2nd with a better prediction for it.

ethomaz · May 25, 2017

Let's estimate with the help of my friend in another forum.

PS4 > 200k (> 14% up YoY)
XB1 < 128k (> 23% down YoY)

More accurate maths?

2017 is at least 5% up YoY for PS4.
2017 is at least 4.5% down YoY for XB1.

Edit - The maths.

Xevross said:
Cool!

Here's my working if people are interested:

NS=280k

If xb1>126k

Mr Swine 11k further away on XB1+ NS than jroc, so needs to be at least 11k closer on PS4

x-y=11
x+y=29

x=20, y=9

So minimum PS4=180+20=209-9=200

hence PS4>200k

If Xb1<125k

Mr Swine 13k further away on XB1+ NS, so needs to be at least 13k closer on PS4

x-y=13
x+y=29

x=21, y=8

hence PS4>201k

So PS4 limit is >200k

-------------------

PS4>200k hence

jroc 20k further away than etho on NS+PS4, so needs to be at least 20k closer on XB1

x-y=20
x+y=25

x=22.5, y=2.5

max XB1=125+2.5=127.5k

hence XB1<128k

Welfare · May 25, 2017

I already posted that, ethomaz.

ethomaz · May 25, 2017

Welfare said:
I already posted that, ethomaz.

I didn't find in any place

Chobel · May 25, 2017

Looks like Scorpio DF reveal hurt Xbox sales, I expect XB1 to continue being down YoY until Destiny 2 or Scorpio release, whatever comes first.

Primethius · May 25, 2017

I see the math but I'm still a bit surprised to see PS4 be up YoY by 30k or so in April. Honestly wasn't expecting the PS4 to be up YoY as a whole either after the start of this year.

Though the slower upcoming months might change that.

ethomaz · May 25, 2017

Primethius said:
I see the math but I'm still a bit surprised to see PS4 be up YoY by 30k or so in April. Honestly wasn't expecting the PS4 to be up YoY as a whole either after the start of this year.

Though the slower upcoming months might change that.

Wasn't it slightly down in January/Feb?

Primethius · May 25, 2017

ethomaz said:
It is being flat or up since start of this year.

Wasn't it slightly down in January/Feb?

ethomaz · May 25, 2017

Primethius said:
Wasn't it slightly down in January/Feb?

Jan only.

Jan 8% down
Feb flat (>395k this and 405k last)
Mar 18% up
Apr 14% up

Primethius · May 25, 2017

ethomaz said:
Jan only.

Jan 8% down
Feb flat
Mar 18% up
Apr 14% up

Ah gotcha, thanks for the correction.

Unknown? · May 25, 2017

ethomaz said:
Let's estimate with the help of my friend in another forum.

PS4 > 200k (> 14% up YoY)
XB1 < 128k (> 23% down YoY)

More accurate maths?

2017 is at least 5% up YoY for PS4.
2017 is at least 4.5% down YoY for XB1.

Edit - The maths.

Isn't that also the highest PS4 has been in April? I seem to recall the old April record this gen was PS4 at like 198k or something.

MatPiscatella · May 25, 2017

April 2017 was the best unit selling April for PS4.

DriftingSpirit · May 25, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
April 2017 was the best unit selling April for PS4.

Thanks for the info!

Wonder how the summer months will go.

Primethius · May 25, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
April 2017 was the best unit selling April for PS4.

Thanks as always Mat!

DriftingSpirit said:
Thanks for the info!

Wonder how the summer months will go.

From September onwards, there should be plenty of insanity but until then, yea, I'm curious as well to see how it'll play out.

Plus, Sony has a forecast of 18 mil (vs. 20 of last year), so I'm waiting to see when that slight down shift in sales occurs (if it does).

jayu26 · May 25, 2017

Primethius said:
Thanks as always Mat!

From September onwards, there should be plenty of insanity but until then, yea, I'm curious as well to see how it'll play out.

Plus, Sony has a forecast of 18 mil (vs. 20 of last year), so I'm waiting to see when that slight down shift in sales occurs (if it does).

Maybe they are predicting down shift in other parts of the world and maybe America stays steady.

Tratorn · May 25, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
April 2017 was the best unit selling April for PS4.

Nice and quite surprising imo. Were there any promotions / temporary pricecuts or is that only because of the current momentum and generally lower pricepoint? Persona 5 surely won't be the (only) reason.

Switch doesn't seem to have an impact on PS4 for now, but that isn't really surprising. For the most part they're targetting different audiences. Which is good, since that way all three can be successful or at least have a decent place on the market.

hanspampel · May 25, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
April 2017 was the best unit selling April for PS4.

Thanks Mat. finally something we can work with
Ps4 in April 2014 was 199k

MatPiscatella · May 25, 2017

Tratorn said:
current momentum and generally lower pricepoint? Persona 5 surely won't be the (only) reason.

I'd peg it to Persona 5 along with momentum driven by other exclusive content and normal price decay. No promotions or anything stands out to me. But we're not talking about huge units of disparity here.

Remember, it's still April sales. A very small portion of total annual sales.

DriftingSpirit · May 25, 2017

Primethius said:
Thanks as always Mat!

From September onwards, there should be plenty of insanity but until then, yea, I'm curious as well to see how it'll play out.

Plus, Sony has a forecast of 18 mil (vs. 20 of last year), so I'm waiting to see when that slight down shift in sales occurs (if it does).

Sony could still adjust that forecast though. They could be conservative in order to announce they surpassed their estimates.

Tratorn said:
Nice and quite surprising imo. Were there any promotions / temporary pricecuts or is that only because of the current momentum and generally lower pricepoint? Persona 5 surely won't be the (only) reason.

Switch doesn't seem to have an impact on PS4 for now, but that isn't really surprising. For the most part they're targetting different audiences. Which is good, since that way all three can be successful or at least have a decent place on the market.

Which is what I figured would be the case. PS4 and Switch compliment each pretty well. That is good for the market as a whole. Switch stalling PS4 momentum or vice versa wouldn't be a good thing even though I know some people on Gaf would love it.

cakely · May 25, 2017

PlayStation 4 up YoY? Nice. That absolutely packed Q1 has been putting in work.

Slim releases and the upcoming Scorpio release probably brought down Xbox One sales, and I suspect we'll see similar results until the actual Scorpio launch.

I'm guessing we still haven't seen Switch demand fulfilled yet. We're going to get another solid couple of months for that console at least.

mejin · May 25, 2017

I think some people went for PS4 in April instead of XBO cause of Scorpio.

FinaruDensetsu · May 25, 2017

DriftingSpirit said:
Sony could still adjust that forecast though. They could be conservative in order to announce they surpassed their estimates.

Which is what I figured would be the case. PS4 and Switch compliment each pretty well. That is good for the market as a whole. Switch stalling PS4 momentum or vice versa wouldn't be a good thing even though I know some people on Gaf would love it.

I think if anything the Xbox is probably in danger of having its momentum hurt by the Switch as the complimentary console or second console that people pick up next to the PS4.

MatPiscatella · May 25, 2017

FinaruDensetsu said:
I think if anything the Xbox is probably in danger of having its momentum hurt by the Switch as the complimentary console or second console that people pick up next to the PS4.

No significant evidence of this at the moment.

Obliterator · May 25, 2017

If what I'm seeing holds up I wouldn't expect things to be any closer in May between Xbox and PlayStation. It's going to be a pretty rough lead up to Scorpio for them if things continue their current trajectory.

That said a strong E3 with a convincing Scorpio presentation and price point I believe can certainly help things. I wouldn't expect some sort of massive turn around but certainly a healthy improvement over their current situation.

added_time · May 25, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
Thought I'd share some additional thoughts around the month, as requested. It's the first go at this, so if there are recommendations for improvement I'm open.

Hardware

The big news is obviously the Nintendo Switch. Supply constraints and inventory are absolutely an issue. It's difficult, obviously, to estimate what potential sales could have been. In any case, a very impressive month 2 for what has been a surprise even for me (I've been very bullish on the Switch since announce). It will take time to ramp up the supply chain. It's not like you can flip a switch (heh) and get units off a line. But, with the one big title a month-ish strategy, and an improving supply chain, and Mario Odyssey at the end of the year, I remain bullish. Is this the next Wii? Well, I'm not ready to go there yet. Early signs are encouraging, however, and 3-4.5m US in 2017 is certainly within reach, assuming that the 10m ww ship number is a cap.

NES Classic was also a big seller, as mentioned in the release. There's not much else to be said here. The NES Classic was a phenomenon, and I'm hoping we get more of these kinds of systems in the future.

Now, Nintendo has been the big news, but the PS4 and Xbox One aren't slouching. I still forecast the time aligned PS4 and Xbox One installed base to exceed that of the PS2 and Xbox sometime later this year, and to be significantly ahead of PS3 and Xbox 360. The data suggests to me that software exclusives are having a meaningful impact here, and I expect to see Sony continue it's strategy of one primary bundle at a time, while I also expect Microsoft to maintain a variety bundle strategy, but toned down from a year ago. We'll have to wait and see on that. In any case, console sales are not a zero sum game. And I'm not even certain the Switch is directly competing with the PS4 and Xbox One. Maybe it is now? But by holiday, I'm not so certain.

In any case, E3 is going to tell us a lot. I'm assuming that Microsoft didn't announce the Scorpio so early without intention of making significant waves in June with content, services and price. I've gotten flak on the interwebs for my 600k 2017 number, and for saying that Scorpio has the potential to push Xone sales ahead of PS4 in this calendar year (not life to date). This is predicated on a lot of assumptions though. An attractive price point, significant content support, (R)evolutionary services, and some surprises on top. I just don't think so many smart people would announce so early unless they were very confident of what is coming. My number could end up being WAY off, and that's fine. The number is more prophecy than forecast given known factors. I want to believe.

PS4 is in a wonderfully good spot. Everything they're doing so far seems to be working quite well for the hardware. They just have to avoid screwing anything up, and I don't see them doing anything that would make things go sideways.

Software

Where to begin.

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe did fantastic. Zelda is going to be on the top 10 for quite a while as well it seems. Not much more needs to be said here. Keep 'em coming.

Persona 5 though. I was thinking, okay, maybe Persona 5 gets to the top 5. I certainly wasn't expecting #2, even without digital. Now, JRPGs tend to be very heavy in month 1 on their decay curves. We'll have to see how it holds up over time. Regardless, just an incredibly impressive month. The premium edition also did exceptionally well, and reflects a new trend of higher priced, premium editions taking higher share for major releases over time. Day 1 consumers and fans are becoming more and more price insensitive - and higher priced SKUs are selling better and better. Now, this doesn't apply once you get 3-6 months down the line, but in launch month premium editions are becoming a bigger share of the pie, and I think we're going to see a lot more of these editions featuring a ton of digital content for GaaS games in particular.

BLOPS II on the list was also a big surprise. And remember, this chart is revenue based, so you're talking some pretty big units. Some folks out there are saying that backwards compatibility isn't a big deal to the market as a whole. Maybe not. However, it is a huge deal for companies planning long-range support for their titles, and in setting up their products to have long-term success. Of course, we're not talking about just some mid-tier game, it is COD we're talking about. Still, the days of a 12 week new release decay curve followed by quick markdowns to $19.99 within a year are ending (exception being titles with significant channel inventory concerns).

Speaking of COD, I'm convinced COD:WWII will give the franchise a nice rebound from last year. I'm expecting growth in the 30% range at least. The response to BLOPS II going back compat certainly gives me more confidence that a traditional, boots on the ground COD game is going to find an audience.

Everyone always asks "who is buying GTAV". Stop asking that. It's new console buyers. Clear correlation between GTAV sales and hardware sales. Science.

And MLB The Show... WOW. Knocked it out of the park (rimshot.gif) this year.

One note from the release that's been overlooked is that 7 publishers are on the top 10 for switch. Now, you're likely to say "well duh, Nintendo's only made a few games". That's missing the point though. The sales of the rest of the top 10 are pretty darn good. Point is, folks putting games on the Switch are finding success. I expect more support to come quickly. Ports at first, particularly from smaller digital only games that are easier to move. But I also expect more 'core' games to show up as well. The Switch is a great device for playing video games. I expect people that love making games to want to put their games on it.

Summary

I couldn't be more encouraged with April results. HW, SW and ACC all had a great month. Switch and Persona 5 drove the growth, but the core boxes are combining to be right on track to where they should be at this point in the cycle. And software is doing very well. Digital and Packaged growth happening at the same time, which gives me additional confidence in my long-held belief that Digital full game sales are more incremental than cannibalistic to Physical. But I will rant on that another day.

Hope this is helpful. Interested in your thoughts.

Fantastic analysis, thank you.

It's interesting and I agree that there is room for both the Switch and the more traditional Xbox One/PS4 consoles to be hits simultaneously.
To see growth like this with consoles even when mobile gaming is rapidly expanding is encouraging.
I'm very curious how Nintendo keeps approaching mobile gaming. Pokemon Go was the best advertisement ever for Pokemon Sun and Moon.
In my opinion, If Nintendo manages to link the mobile Animal Crossing game with the Switch game, it could potentially be enormous on both fronts.

Oh on that note, does NPD have an interest in tracking mobile gaming sales (or do you already and I'm just clueless)

Primethius · May 25, 2017

jayu26 said:
Maybe they are predicting down shift in other parts of the world and maybe America stays steady.

Good point.

DriftingSpirit said:
Sony could still adjust that forecast though. They could be conservative in order to announce they surpassed their estimates.

Which is what I figured would be the case. PS4 and Switch compliment each pretty well. That is good for the market as a whole. Switch stalling PS4 momentum or vice versa wouldn't be a good thing even though I know some people on Gaf would love it.

Yea, I'm expecting them to adjust the forecast if the NA performance keeps up. But as Jay points out, they might have data/indicators on the RotW that indicates otherwise as we are extremely limited in that sort of data. I find that unlikely and am expecting a revision given how strong the PS4 has been performing in the RotW, but who knows (except Sony).

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