Primethius
Banned
I went for PS4 over Switch for this months predictions. The retail annecodotes really made me think PS4 was going to take this month and those retail reports have always been fairly reliable in my opinion.
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May 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, June 6th
I went for PS4 over Switch for this months predictions. The retail annecodotes really made me think PS4 was going to take this month and those retail reports have always been fairly reliable in my opinion.
They have billions in cash. They can't outbid Apple but they can move their name up the priority list.
Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, to prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 4 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.
NeoGAF Prediction Results - May 2017
Units
1. Tarrin
2. Hammer24
3. Welfare
4. jbluzb
Points
Congratulations, Tarrin!
NeoGAF Prediction Results - May 2017
Units
1. Tarrin
2. Hammer24
3. Welfare
4. jbluzb
Points
Code:
May 2017 Overall 2017 Top (4/5)
01. Tarrin ---.-- Primethius ---.--
02. Hammer24 ---.-- BlackBuzzard ---.--
03. Welfare ---.-- ethomaz ---.--
04. Primethius ---.-- noobie ---.--
05. ---.-- Fdkn ---.--
06. ---.-- Kayant ---.--
07. ---.-- jayu26 ---.--
08. ---.-- Sterok ---.--
09. ---.-- jroc74 ---.--
10. ---.-- Sangetsu-II ---.--
11. ---.-- donny2112 ---.--
12. ---.-- Welfare ---.--
13. ---.-- Hammer24 ---.--
14. ---.-- Trust me, I'm a PhD ---.--
15. ---.-- allan-bh ---.--
16. ---.-- CorporateClown ---.--
17. ---.-- mejin ---.--
18. ---.-- theprodigy ---.--
19. ---.-- archnemesis ---.--
20. ---.-- freefornow ---.--
21. ---.-- kyser73 ---.--
22. ---.-- Bitch Pudding ---.--
23. ---.-- pitseleh ---.--
24. ---.-- Shizza ---.--
25. ---.-- Elandyll ---.--
26. ---.-- Darth Smurf X ---.--
27. ---.-- noshten ---.--
28. ---.-- vivekTO ---.--
29. ---.-- Rymuth ---.--
30. ---.-- jjonez18 ---.--
31. ---.-- Stanng243 ---.--
32. ---.-- robo ---.--
33. ---.-- KillerMan91 ---.--
34. ---.-- Chobel ---.--
35. ---.-- Cow Goes Moo ---.--
36. ---.-- 1993dan1 ---.--
37. ---.-- Pachter ---.--
38. ---.-- astrogamer ---.--
39. ---.-- Kill3r7 ---.--
40. ---.-- slavesnyder ---.--
41. ---.-- Opt1kon_ ---.--
42. ---.-- skedar897 ---.--
43. ---.-- Raylan ---.--
44. ---.-- Ravage_Hydra ---.--
45. ---.-- Bruno MB ---.--
46. ---.-- harrisk954 ---.--
47. ---.-- Shock32 ---.--
48. ---.-- sirronoh ---.--
49. ---.-- Ol┐nner ---.--
50. ---.-- Zedark ---.--Congratulations, Tarrin!
1.
Primethius and Stanng243 were the only ones to predict PS4 > NSW this month. Good job, guys!
2.
3.
4./*
*/4.
Primethius and Stanng243 were the only ones to predict PS4 > NSW this month. Good job, guys!
Since not all the results are public, this is a "Just for Fun" ranking. The way it works is that the #1 predictor for the month using the actual results is assumed to be 100% correct, and everyone else is measured accordingly. These results are not official and not used in the annual rankings. Since the real results can't be shown, these are a substitute to be used "Just for Fun." (^_^)
NeoGAF "Just for Fun" Prediction Results - May 2017
Note: Uses #1 predictor as "truth" and measures everyone else relative to them.
1. Tarrin - 0
2. Welfare - 11,000
3. Hammer24 - 19,000
4. allan-bh - 24,000
5. Primethius - 27,000
6. CorporateClown - 29,000
7. Pachter - 34,500
8. Smiles and Cries - 38,000
9. donny2112 - 40,000
10. hanspampel - 41,000
11. noobie - 44,000
12. archnemesis - 47,000
13. Jigorath - 48,000
13. Sterok - 48,000
13. jbluzb - 48,000
16. Sangetsu-II - 52,000
17. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 54,000
18. Calm Mind - 57,000
19. GAF_Agg - 62,900
20. 1993dan1 - 63,000
21. ThatRandomCliff - 65,043
22. Kayant - 66,000
23. Darth Smurf X - 67,000
23. KillerMan91 - 67,000
23. kyser73 - 67,000
26. Fdkn - 68,000
26. Kill3r7 - 68,000
26. jroc74 - 68,000
26. theprodigy - 68,000
30. Elandyll - 72,000
31. Zedark - 73,000
31. harrisk954 - 73,000
33. jayu26 - 75,000
34. LOCK - 77,000
34. Shizza - 77,000
34. Stanng243 - 77,000
34. robo - 77,000
38. Chobel - 78,000
38. jjonez18 - 78,000
40. Rymuth - 80,000
41. Ol┐nner - 81,000
42. ethomaz - 82,000
42. mejin - 82,000
44. astrogamer - 83,000
44. freefornow - 83,000
46. NateDrake - 88,000
47. slavesnyder - 92,000
48. WillySJ3 - 93,000
49. MTC100 - 98,000
49. Vena - 98,000
51. skedar897 - 100,000
52. Opt1kon_ - 103,000
53. pitseleh - 106,000
54. Graphics Horse - 122,000
55. noshten - 155,000
56. Zero83 - 173,000
57. stoff - 186,000
58. Renna Hazel - 194,000
59. Blam - 208,000
60. Cow Goes Moo - 218,000
NeoGAF "Just for Fun" Prediction Results - May 2017
Note: Uses #1 predictor as "truth" and measures everyone else relative to them.
1. Tarrin - 0
2. Welfare - 11,000
3. Hammer24 - 19,000
4. allan-bh - 24,000
5. Primethius - 27,000
6. CorporateClown - 29,000
7. Pachter - 34,500
8. Smiles and Cries - 38,000
9. donny2112 - 40,000
10. hanspampel - 41,000
11. noobie - 44,000
12. archnemesis - 47,000
13. Jigorath - 48,000
13. Sterok - 48,000
13. jbluzb - 48,000
16. Sangetsu-II - 52,000
17. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 54,000
18. Calm Mind - 57,000
19. GAF_Agg - 62,900
20. 1993dan1 - 63,000
21. ThatRandomCliff - 65,043
22. Kayant - 66,000
23. Darth Smurf X - 67,000
23. KillerMan91 - 67,000
23. kyser73 - 67,000
26. Fdkn - 68,000
26. Kill3r7 - 68,000
26. jroc74 - 68,000
26. theprodigy - 68,000
30. Elandyll - 72,000
31. Zedark - 73,000
31. harrisk954 - 73,000
33. jayu26 - 75,000
34. LOCK - 77,000
34. Shizza - 77,000
34. Stanng243 - 77,000
34. robo - 77,000
38. Chobel - 78,000
38. jjonez18 - 78,000
40. Rymuth - 80,000
41. Ol┐nner - 81,000
42. ethomaz - 82,000
42. mejin - 82,000
44. astrogamer - 83,000
44. freefornow - 83,000
46. NateDrake - 88,000
47. slavesnyder - 92,000
48. WillySJ3 - 93,000
49. MTC100 - 98,000
49. Vena - 98,000
51. skedar897 - 100,000
52. Opt1kon_ - 103,000
53. pitseleh - 106,000
54. Graphics Horse - 122,000
55. noshten - 155,000
56. Zero83 - 173,000
57. stoff - 186,000
58. Renna Hazel - 194,000
59. Blam - 208,000
60. Cow Goes Moo - 218,000
So 180-186k or could it be lower than 180k as well?
Welfare
Member
Could be lower, but above XB1.
Chobel
Member
Surprised Primethius wasn't #1.
Primethius
Banned
You can see donny's post with the closest guesses, and from that you can determine some brackets within which the systems must have sold.
lol
That damn Nintendo...and I would have never guessed PS4 would be #1.
Good job Tarrin.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
14th for the year? I will take that^^ Thanks again, Donny. See you all next thread, with a lot of PS4 #1 predictions, I assume^^
hanspampel
Banned
I don't think we can do this anymore.
Switch could be just 130k and that would not change the ranking, as everyone overestimated them.
How can anyone be remotely certain?
This does not make sense anymore with 3 variables.
Al least we have rough Ps4 and Xb1 combined numbers, but those are now based on privious months estimates, that are some units off.
And as we go on the numbers all get more and more inaccurate.
This can and will snowball heavily
Switch could be just 130k and that would not change the ranking, as everyone overestimated them.
How can anyone be remotely certain?
This does not make sense anymore with 3 variables.
Al least we have rough Ps4 and Xb1 combined numbers, but those are now based on privious months estimates, that are some units off.
And as we go on the numbers all get more and more inaccurate.
This can and will snowball heavily
Graphics Horse
Member
Would be nice if error per system was squared before ranking them, but probably easier to reverse engineer.
hanspampel
Banned
we have several problem here, that accumulate
less people overall predict
people predict more in line with similar numbers
less reliable information given to base the results on
it hope donny and the original leaker would be okay to tell us if were at least in a 10% error margin or not
less people overall predict
people predict more in line with similar numbers
less reliable information given to base the results on
it hope donny and the original leaker would be okay to tell us if were at least in a 10% error margin or not
I can't find the BlackBuzzard numbers... he passed me on overall 2017 this month and I want compare with my numbers
Doesn't look like he predicted this month. The annual ranking is the best 4 out of 5 months so far this year, so if he missed this month but the previous 4 are better than your best 4, that'd be why he moved past you.
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On the uncertainty for the Switch number, hopefully Nintendo will eventually announce an "over 1.5m" or "over 2m" LTD when those come, which should help narrow down past numbers. Over the many years we've been doing this, we have had to deal with varying amounts of uncertainty in an individual month, but those often would get helped with later LTDs, YTDs, or the like. I very much agree that it'd be much nicer to have some actual public numbers. Those just are in short supply these days...
ethomaz
Banned
Ohhhhh that makes sense.
Thank you for you work here.