The Last One
Member
Is this leak really reliable though?
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June 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, July 11th
Assuming numbers are accurate/legit for Switch
So from March to June
World-Wide Month of March -2.74 million
US April to June - 660.7 thousands
Japan April to June 474.8 thousands
Not including the rest of the world from April to June it adds up to 3.87 million.
Easily above 4 million if the rest of the world is included.
So from March to June
World-Wide Month of March -2.74 million
US April to June - 660.7 thousands
Japan April to June 474.8 thousands
Not including the rest of the world from April to June it adds up to 3.87 million.
Easily above 4 million if the rest of the world is included.
Good prices with some great fucking games in the first half.
I thought the biggest driver for June would be the Days of Play. At least in germany the hardware sales were really good. Wasn't it the same in the US?
The exclusive lineup this year has been fan-fucking-tastic.
whyamihere
Banned
It's higher than the Xbox and up 50k from last month. That's a decent rebound even if there are supply issues (which, yeesh).
Doubt Crash had a huge impact in hardware sales. Though it will do great.
It will only have 2 days of sales in NPD and (EDIT: NOT FROM ACTIVISION BUT LEAVING THE POST THE SAME ANYWAY,
) the Activision report mentioned ARMS and Tekken 7 doing well, despite the drop in software sales year to year.whyamihere
Banned
1st Course
Member
I doubt anyone will confirm the numbers, but If Mat or any of the insiders don't deny them they are probably legit.
Dark Cloud
Member
MS sales must be down because everyone getting ready to buy the Xbox One X.
Shin
Banned
Awesome, having actual data is far more interesting of a discussion (if true).
Based on those figures we get the following for the US in 2016 for PS4/XB1/S
5,101,208 PS4 2016
4,733,032 XB1 2016
Don't know if it's great for both or really bad for one of them, but it seems rather close-ish.
Crash Bandicoot most likely, it's why I predicted 325k for PS4.
Obliterator
Member
You can only go so long without hardly any major exclusives on your system. No, exclusives are not the end all be all, but when you have PS4 absolutely surging with exclusive content this year, and MS barely showing up in that regard it's bound to catch up with you.
They really need to figure their 1st party situation out
I was gonna make a joke about Splatoon 80% attach rate lol...
Welfare
Member
Xbox One YTD is down 11% YoY, PS4 up 13%.
Pro is helping PS4 sales here. Using that 1 in 5 comment from Sony, we can assume ~350K Pro's have been sold this year, leaving 1.43M PS4's for a 9% drop from 2016. Looks like the general theme of the year will be XB1 down until maybe November, PS4 up until November at least.
Like, I'm having trouble thinking of a scenario where Xbox One 2017 isn't below 4M units.
But hey, maybe this means 2018 will be a better year for XB1 thanks to X?
XB1 2015: 4,933,000
PS4 2015: 5,728,000
XB1 was barely down in 2016 -4% and PS4 down 11%
Pro is helping PS4 sales here. Using that 1 in 5 comment from Sony, we can assume ~350K Pro's have been sold this year, leaving 1.43M PS4's for a 9% drop from 2016. Looks like the general theme of the year will be XB1 down until maybe November, PS4 up until November at least.
Like, I'm having trouble thinking of a scenario where Xbox One 2017 isn't below 4M units.
But hey, maybe this means 2018 will be a better year for XB1 thanks to X?
XB1 2015: 4,933,000
PS4 2015: 5,728,000
XB1 was barely down in 2016 -4% and PS4 down 11%
Samanosuke Akechi
Member
Sony's "days of play" promotion last month with several games discounted to $39, gold PS4 1tb on sale for $249, and various accessories on sale as well.
Then there's crash bandicoot which probably accounts for a big chunk of those sales too if assume.
Wish we can get crash numbers
Samanosuke Akechi
Member
No gears or halo plus a $500 upgraded console against a surging PS4 and supply constraint switch, it's definitely looking a bit cloudy for the old X box. Gonna be a very interesting holiday season.
Obliterator
Member
We probably shouldn't expect it to chart super high. It's at a $20 price disadvantage on a revenue based chart and also only has 2 days of tracking.
Regardless numbers should be good and I expect a strong hold through July
Shin
Banned
PlayStation has a lot of marketing deals going into the holidays that might help it, I do expect a $50 price drop on PS4 Pro to sweeten the deal.
Be it permanent or temporary it should be within the realms of possibilities seeing when it launched and parts becoming cheaper as time goes by.
The issues with MS might last longer than we expect, not sure when they fixed their 1st party studios, only that it will take years for it to bare fruit.
XBOX itself should help them move units, the rest remains to be seen as to what MS does this holiday with bundles/price cuts.
The estimation thread actually quite accurate.
Edit: Sony might really killed it this holiday. Either price drop or heavily bundle deal....
Obliterator
Member
Looks like 2017 will actually be the peak year for PS4
joecanada
Member
I don't get it. We have this conversation about Xbox it seems in about half of all years .... It's why I now buy Xbox on the cheap I just never trust their output. Now that I built a PC their hardware is pretty pointless to me .
Samanosuke Akechi
Member
I honestly don't know anymore. They have a lot of games scheduled for next year too.
Days gone, RDR2 exclusive marketing, Spider-Man, kingdom hearts 3, god of war, and more. Add another price drop and they could sell even more than this year.
Hydrargyrus
Member
Wooooow
Finally leaks. It's weird that all the leaks stopped just when MS stopped winning...
Finally leaks. It's weird that all the leaks stopped just when MS stopped winning...
Shin
Banned
PS4
Jan: 210,665
Feb: 398,407
Mar: 396,726
Apr: 206,247
May: 187,182
Jun: 381,196
Assuming those numbers are correct, that's gives us: 1,780,423 so far, looking at 2015 and 2016 a safe bet for November + December is around 2,500,000.
1,780,423 + 2,500,000 = 4.200,000+- (2015 = 5.7m, 2016 = 5.1m, that leaves July - October with maybe an average of 250k per month = 1M --> 5.2m+- for 2017.
Then again you got BF2, AC:O, CoD:WW2, Destiny 2, Fifa 2018 and GT Sport to drive those numbers, I wonder if it will surpass 2015.
Welfare
Member
Now that we actually have numbers for the year, this is my updated prediction for full year 2017 from 2016.
PS4: 5.05M (-1%)
XB1: 3.95M (-17%)
I believe 2H 2017 for PS4 will drop -7% from 2016 thanks to a weaker November and December, and Xbox One 2H 2017 will be down -18% thanks to the One X only releasing in November, while One S launched in August.
Also, this is the LTD I have for each console, rounded.
PS4: 19.29M
XB1: 16.84M
Gap is 2.45M
PS4: 5.05M (-1%)
XB1: 3.95M (-17%)
I believe 2H 2017 for PS4 will drop -7% from 2016 thanks to a weaker November and December, and Xbox One 2H 2017 will be down -18% thanks to the One X only releasing in November, while One S launched in August.
Also, this is the LTD I have for each console, rounded.
PS4: 19.29M
XB1: 16.84M
Gap is 2.45M
Poimandres
Member
Well, uh, this leak certainly doesn't make it look like they are winning...
If those numbers are legit, the 50$ soft-price drop did a lot this month for the PS4.
I'd wait until holiday to declare this, I think Mat even made a point to this end for his expectations on 2016 being the peak but I may be misremembering.
Either way, such a huge %age of sales comes at the end of the year that anything now is just premature.
I'd wait until holiday to declare this, I think Mat even made a point to this end for his expectations on 2016 being the peak but I may be misremembering.
Either way, such a huge %age of sales comes at the end of the year that anything now is just premature.
Welfare
Member
From my previous post, and what I have for 360/PS3 at the same point in time
XB1: 16.84M (+9%)
PS4: 19.29M (+52%)
360: 15.51M
PS3: 12.72M
Seeing as no new post has been made, maybe One X should have been a new gen. XB1 performing worse than XBX did in 05.
Jan: 244,000
Feb: 215,000
Mar: 232,000
Apr: 158,000
May: 134,000
Jun: 173,000
Jul: 135,000
Aug: 138,000
Sep: 129,000
Oct: 115,000
Nov: 202,000
Dec: 420,000
I just find it insane how XB1 can go from selling on par with 360 in their 3rd years
XB1 2016: 4.733M
360 2008: 4.735M
to going below XBX in the 4th year YTD June.
XB1 2017 YTD: 989K
XBX 2005 YTD: 1.156M
XB1: 16.84M (+9%)
PS4: 19.29M (+52%)
360: 15.51M
PS3: 12.72M
Seeing as no new post has been made, maybe One X should have been a new gen. XB1 performing worse than XBX did in 05.
Jan: 244,000
Feb: 215,000
Mar: 232,000
Apr: 158,000
May: 134,000
Jun: 173,000
Jul: 135,000
Aug: 138,000
Sep: 129,000
Oct: 115,000
Nov: 202,000
Dec: 420,000
I just find it insane how XB1 can go from selling on par with 360 in their 3rd years
XB1 2016: 4.733M
360 2008: 4.735M
to going below XBX in the 4th year YTD June.
XB1 2017 YTD: 989K
XBX 2005 YTD: 1.156M
Samanosuke Akechi
Member
Looking at the numbers, it's starting to feel like the xb1 is losing steam fast. This is their first holiday since launch without a halo or gears title and PS4 and Switch will have big hitters with GTS and super Mario Odyssey.
Samanosuke Akechi
Member
Wow. Just wow. Makes me think microsoft might try to rebrand the X as "Next Gen" now or fast track the next Xbox for launch next year with halo 6 if sales continue to nosedive like this.
They could drop the support for X1 somewhere along the line... They've done it before, OG to 360. Phill could simply said X1 is dragging them then And the fans would absolutely be okay with it.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Crash and Knack 2 bundle will be better that Destiny bundle xD
theprodigy
Member
December not even being double January? lol things were pretty different 12 years ago
Did you take the Knack 2 bump into consideration though for PS4. Knack 2 will push PS4 up year over year.
An interesting thing: if you divide both the alleged numbers for US and for Japan for the past three months by the number for March, you get:
US: 661k/902k =~ 0.73
Japan: 440k/600k =~ 0.73
This suggests that Nintendo might have maintained the shipping ratio from March, amd as such we can estimate total sales.
Total sales as of June 30th: 2.74 * 1.73 = 4.74 million, or 2 million units shipped/sold in the past three months.
US: 661k/902k =~ 0.73
Japan: 440k/600k =~ 0.73
This suggests that Nintendo might have maintained the shipping ratio from March, amd as such we can estimate total sales.
Total sales as of June 30th: 2.74 * 1.73 = 4.74 million, or 2 million units shipped/sold in the past three months.
Jarod McChicken
Member
So if I didn't screw up the maths
PS4 after June 2016 : 1,580,163
PS4 after June 2017 : 1,780,423
Add the fact the PS4 is also up YoY in Japan and a probable price cut this autumn for both slim and pro models, and you maye have a good surprise at the end of the year. Will the decline expected by Sony (from 20M to 17M shipped for the fiscal year) really happen ?
PS4 after June 2016 : 1,580,163
PS4 after June 2017 : 1,780,423
Add the fact the PS4 is also up YoY in Japan and a probable price cut this autumn for both slim and pro models, and you maye have a good surprise at the end of the year. Will the decline expected by Sony (from 20M to 17M shipped for the fiscal year) really happen ?
Welfare
Member
That was when Xbox production stopped and the 360 came out that holiday. Basically dead within the year.
PS2 Jan 2005: 490,000
PS2 Feb 2005: 538,000
PS2 Mar 2005: 495,000
PS2 Nov 2005: 531,000
PS2 Dec 2005: 1,500,000
PS2 slim was heavily supply constrained for holiday 04 so that explains the extremely high January/Q1.
Knack 2 is such a positive factor that it goes so far into infinity that it goes negative.
I don't think that the 2h will be weaker with GTS, COD WW2, Destiny 2 and Battlefront 2.
Sangetsu-II
Member
I can imagine PS4 Days Of Play sales went much better in EU with that stunning Silver and Gold PS4 Combo and Crash hype. So yes, It must have done gangbusters WW.
Shin
Banned
Always looks better if you lower expectation then exceed them in the end, looks better for investors (though it's not how it really works I reckon).
They recently got a white PS4 Slim and there's DQXI coming out soon which should push it a lot.
But yeah it's rather strange that expected to ship/sell less this year when it's already well ahead of last year so 22-24m incoming?
You need to compare April-June to get a comparison for FY, which is what the FY17/18 guidance on 17m shipped units is for.
I would do it but CBA as on mobile
Dripdripdrip...drip...*sound of dam breaking*
It's the logical conclusion for MS 'Only the holidays matter' strategem, pretty much killed the momentum built up by Xbox One S.
Expect a similar performance for the One X (strong momentum but nothing to help sustain it)
It's the logical conclusion for MS 'Only the holidays matter' strategem, pretty much killed the momentum built up by Xbox One S.
Expect a similar performance for the One X (strong momentum but nothing to help sustain it)