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June 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, July 11th

Chobel

Member
I honestly don't think so. I feel the Xbox One would be doing pretty similar right now even if the Nintendo Switch didn't launch this year.

Actually, historical data suggests that Nintendo hardware may sway some gamers from purchasing Xbox devices. Courtesy of Queso:
Any reason Xbox wouldn't be up from 248K?
- lack of system driving sw releases in feb
- Scorpio talk pushing purchases out
- Saving money for Switch (MS audience attaches to NIN console hw at higher rate than Sony)
Early 2010s research... not certain it holds up today, but I'm assuming it does. Could be wrong.
 

Kayant

Member
One of the most deceptives gaming ads I have seen in recent times.
Yep PR is such an interesting field. I mean tbf they weren't wrong but without context/Asterix below the ad which majority of people wouldn't read it's because misleading.

It's one field I never see myself working in because the lengths taken at times to bend/stretch the truth is truly disgusting.
 

Papacheeks

Banned
I've seen people take that point and magnify it to mean that the launch is still being screwed up somehow. It's not uncommon to find posters saying something along the lines of 'fix these supply issues, it's ruining your launch'.

Taking into account the issues we've heard being reported by the WSJ, along with how long it takes to adjust issues with the supply chain and it just comes off as people looking for new ways to doom and gloom about either the Switch or Nintendo. It gets really annoying in either this thread or the media create threads, etc.


See above.

Thing is Nintendo could have prepared better for a "Gloabl" launch period.

No one is denying that the switch is doing very well and is being received well. It's that it could be doing even better if they had prepared better, and that is backed up by how rushed their lineup was, online features, and shortage of products with the system itself and accessories.
 

NSESN

Member
Thing is Nintendo could have prepared better for a "Gloabl" launch period.

No one is denying that the switch is doing very well and is being received well. It's that it could be doing even better if they had prepared better, and that is backed up by how rushed their lineup was, online features, and shortage of products with the system itself and accessories.

The lineup isn't rushed lol. Nintendo released/will release 3 big sellers + a new IP in the space of 5 months, while still releasing 3DS games and publishing some 3rd party games like USFII.

You are right about online features. But with the way Nintendo works it is better they launch sooner than later because it would have problems either way.
 
Thing is Nintendo could have prepared better for a "Global" launch period.
If you're talking about launching a new platform coming of off the succes of the Wii and the DS i'd be inclined to agree. Nintendo did prepare for massive demand with both the 3DS and the Wii U. The problem is that when the demand wasn't there, they bled massive amounts of money with both the price cut of the 3DS, constant revisions, rushing big sellers to market and being forced to buy back stock that was sent back.

After all of that, i'm very sorry but no, Nintendo could not have prepared better for a Global launch. After the disaster of the Wii U and 3DS, Nintendo had to calculate in the risk that the Switch might not perform and could stay on the shelves unsold for months, maybe years. As has happenend for the past six years with their platform.

Compounding the issue is the fact they chose to launch in March. Look at the launch of any product outside the holiday season and you'll find that the Switch launch numbers are minor miracle in and of themselves. No videogame console/handheld has ever sold this much in a month outside of the Holiday. The only system that comes close to those numbers is the Game Boy Advance, a system that launched 16 years ago. Even if you say their line-up was rushed(I disagree BTW, Switch's line-up is far better then anything they've ever managed outside the SNES or GBA), that still means nobody should have expected Nintendo to have more stock available.

Had Nintendo actually tried to get 18 million Switch units for the first year, straight off the bat, investors would have rightfully called them insane in light of their recent flops.

Sorry for the long response. I've been bottling this up for a while.
 

cakely

Member
Are these numbers really that big a deal to MS? They've made it clear that they really couldn't give two shits about hardware numbers anymore. That's no longer their strategy or focus.

You're talking about sales numbers. Of course Microsoft would like to sell more of their consoles, and of course their strategy and focus depends on it. If they didn't want to sell consoles, they'd stop manufacturing them.

Also, it's summer cinema season, less UHD bluray release to drive 1S sales.

That's amazing. Well done.
 
Yep PR is such an interesting field. I mean tbf they weren't wrong but without context/Asterix below the ad which majority of people wouldn't read it's because misleading.

It's one field I never see myself working in because the lengths taken at times to bend/stretch the truth is truly disgusting.

There is good PR and bad PR in the sense that good PR is to find the narrative/angle that is accurate and paints your client in the best possible light. Accuracy and a sense of honesty is important as it remains solid in face of scrutiny.

Good PR would focus on a consistent area in which their client has a strength and connect meaningful stories with the press, influencers, and the public.

The Press and the informed public aren't as gullible as many would like to think. Some are downright cynical. So playing games with asterisk, conditionals, and messing around with definitions could be effective PR in the short run and will ultimately bite the client in the ass in the long run. Or, at the very least, cast some doubt into the complete accuracy of the PR team's claims.

This extends to marketing as well, but marketing gets a little bit more leeway. People assume marketing is a fair amount of fluff and selling you something.
 
After all of that, i'm very sorry but no, Nintendo could not have prepared better for a Global launch.
Yes, they absolutely could have. What you're suggesting is that Nintendo planned based on the assumption Switch would be a failure. Thus by definition they could've prepared better for success.

Microsoft was brutally savaged in the press and enthusiast web throughout most of 2013. They had perhaps the most disastrous marketing failure in the history of videogames: Xbox One was weaker, more expensive, TV TV TV, was sending your data to the NSA, etc.

They then shipped almost 4 million consoles in the first 6 weeks, a number Nintendo hit around 14 weeks. Microsoft planned for success, even though there was plenty to fear.

Of course, this was expensive for them, and would've been for Nintendo. But as a consumer, why the heck should I care if a company has to dip into their cash reserves, or make less profit for a few months? Nintendo put their own satisfaction ahead of their customers'. It's their choice to make, but they don't get to be immune to criticism for making it.
 

LordRaptor

Member
Thing is Nintendo could have prepared better for a "Gloabl" launch period.

How?
A staggered launch, where... I dunno, Japan was fully sated for 3 months, the US launch is around now and Europe get a launch this holiday?

Microsoft was brutally savaged in the press and enthusiast web throughout most of 2013. They had perhaps the most disastrous marketing failure in the history of videogames: Xbox One was weaker, more expensive, TV TV TV, was sending your data to the NSA, etc.

They then shipped almost 4 million consoles in the first 6 weeks, a number Nintendo hit around 14 weeks.

MS didn't even pretend to have a global launch though.
For MS its a no brainer decision to delay launching in territories where nobody actually gives much of a shit about your product in the first place, but Nintendo don't actually have any territories where they are mostly irrelevant.
 

Shin-Ra

Junior Member
Are these numbers really that big a deal to MS? They've made it clear that they really couldn't give two shits about hardware numbers anymore. That's no longer their strategy or focus.

I mean sure the console hardware numbers are not anything to be proud of compared to the PS4, but they're getting a head start on conquering the PC or play anywhere type of market, while Sony is still stuck on the console market.
Always a big deal, only openly when they're ahead.

https://youtu.be/NcEKYqRqx_Y
XBObestsellingQ3_2016.gif
 
How?
A staggered launch, where... I dunno, Japan was fully sated for 3 months, the US launch is around now and Europe get a launch this holiday?



MS didn't even pretend to have a global launch though.
For MS its a no brainer decision to delay launching in territories where nobody actually gives much of a shit about your product in the first place, but Nintendo don't actually have any territories where they are mostly irrelevant.

Nintendo is as much irrelevant in most of those tier 2 countries as MS. Console gaming outside of traditional big gaming markets is pretty much complete PlayStation domination with some exceptions (like Mexico where Xbox is stronger).
 

Kayant

Member
I think Nintendo did a decent job with their launch they have mainly been affected by external factors at least talking about hardware.
There is good PR and bad PR in the sense that good PR is to find the narrative/angle that is accurate and paints your client in the best possible light. Accuracy and a sense of honesty is important as it remains solid in face of scrutiny.

Good PR would focus on a consistent area in which their client has a strength and connect meaningful stories with the press, influencers, and the public.

The Press and the informed public aren't as gullible as many would like to think. Some are downright cynical. So playing games with asterisk, conditionals, and messing around with definitions could be effective PR in the short run and will ultimately bite the client in the ass in the long run. Or, at the very least, cast some doubt into the complete accuracy of the PR team's claims.

This extends to marketing as well, but marketing gets a little bit more leeway. People assume marketing is a fair amount of fluff and selling you something.
I know this is a little off topic but just wanted to reply.

You're definitely right there for me I guess I feel even with good PR/Marketing it's almost never 💯 the truth. Ultimately it's just a field that I find were honesty will have to be bent at some points to push something (ofc that's not to say this is exclusive to marketing it's just as selling a product/service etc it rubs me the wrong way)
Nintendo is as much irrelevant in most of those tier 2 countries as MS. Console gaming outside of traditional big gaming markets is pretty much complete PlayStation domination with some exceptions (like Mexico where Xbox is stronger).
I don't follow Nintendo much but am pretty sure this isn't really true in EU.
 
For those interested... the June data media release is scheduled to release on time this evening.

I'll try to be around to answer questions if anyone has any.

As I'm sure you all understand, I won't be commenting on any unsanctioned information that might be floating out there.
 
I don't follow Nintendo much but am pretty sure this isn't really true in EU.

Nintendo is strong in big European countries (tier 1) but not so much in smaller countries or in eastern Europe (tier 2). That isn't that different from Xbox that sells well in bigger countries (at least with X360) but not so much elsewhere.
 

Zedark

Member
Nintendo is strong in big European countries (tier 1) but not so much in smaller countries or in eastern Europe (tier 2).

I don't even think they launched in most of those Eastern European countries either. I remember a list of European countries mentioning the Vatican of all places
It's the pope banishing Ganon I presume
, but hardly any Eastern European countries.
 

Humdinger

Member
For those interested... the June data media release is scheduled to release on time this evening.

I'll try to be around to answer questions if anyone has any.

As I'm sure you all understand, I won't be commenting on any unsanctioned information that might be floating out there.

Cool. Nice to see you, Mat.
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
Always a big deal, only openly when they're ahead.

https://youtu.be/NcEKYqRqx_Y
XBObestsellingQ3_2016.gif

Oohhh Microsoft....lol

I was gonna say companies that sell, produce hardware care about sales. Like some have said, if they didnt care they would stop making hardware.

Or it gets to the point they have no choice but to stop caring/making hardware . See: Blackberry.

Apple used to care about market share, until Android passed them. Then the focus became profit. Every new iPhone outsells the previous one, or used to dont know these days. They didnt really have to talk about sales.
 

Kayant

Member
Nintendo is strong in big European countries (tier 1) but not so much in smaller countries or in eastern Europe (tier 2). That isn't that different from Xbox that sells well in bigger countries (at least with X360) but not so much elsewhere.
Ha tier 1 EU. Was thinking in the mind of MS tiers 😋 where EU is is tier 2.
 
Ha tier 1 EU. Was thinking in the mind of MS tiers �� where EU is is tier 2.

Big markets of Europe were part of tier 1 launch also with Xbox One (UK, France, Italy, Spain and Germany). Tier 2 was rest of Europe and some countries from Asia, middle east, africa and south america.

I don't even think they launched in most of those Eastern European countries either. I remember a list of European countries mentioning the Vatican of all places
It's the pope banishing Ganon I presume
, but hardly any Eastern European countries.

Well yeah. Biggest reason why Sony dominates most of developing world is that they are only manufacturer with proper presence in those countries.
 

cakely

Member
Last comment from Mat really confirms to me that the numbers we got are real. They're "unsanctioned" and not incorrect.
 

Papacheeks

Banned
The lineup isn't rushed lol. Nintendo released/will release 3 big sellers + a new IP in the space of 5 months, while still releasing 3DS games and publishing some 3rd party games like USFII.

You are right about online features. But with the way Nintendo works it is better they launch sooner than later because it would have problems either way.

So when they launch with 5 titles on launch day, and had their unveiling in January with people on stage talking about games they haven't even started because they hadn't received kits, your going to say they were prepared?

Because the lack of features, games at launch day, and actual lack quantities of accessories says other wise.

They fumbled the NES classic and fumbled demand for switch. That's on them.

How?
A staggered launch, where... I dunno, Japan was fully sated for 3 months, the US launch is around now and Europe get a launch this holiday?



MS didn't even pretend to have a global launch though.
For MS its a no brainer decision to delay launching in territories where nobody actually gives much of a shit about your product in the first place, but Nintendo don't actually have any territories where they are mostly irrelevant.

No they just could have allocated more units pre-launch like your would think any console company would do when doing a global launch. But Nintendo likes to be conservative when they had something like Wii U happen, even though their stock rising in 2016, with sell outs for NES classic, and huge buzz around switch paints a picture of huge demand for their product specifically the Switch.
 

Zedark

Member
Last comment from Mat really confirms to me that the numbers we got are real. They're "unsanctioned" and not incorrect.

Let's just roll with it regardless. No need to create the suggestion that Mat and someone else should deny it or else. We should just use them as a measuring tool, it's hardly a less exact method than the estimations we normally use ;)

So when they launch with 5 titles on launch day, and had their unveiling in January with people on stage talking about games they haven't even started because they hadn't received kits, your going to say they were prepared?

Because the lack of features, games at launch day, and actual lack quantities of accessories says other wise.

They fumbled the NES classic and fumbled demand for switch. That's on them.

What they fumbled with regards to the NES Classic was not explicitly mentioning it was a limited time item, meant for brand awareness and an extra holiday push, not for large scale sales.
 
For those interested... the June data media release is scheduled to release on time this evening.

I'll try to be around to answer questions if anyone has any.

As I'm sure you all understand, I won't be commenting on any unsanctioned information that might be floating out there.

Doing God's work.
 

Papacheeks

Banned
Let's just roll with it regardless. No need to create the suggestion that Mat and someone else should deny it or else. We should just use them as a measuring tool, it's hardly a less exact method than the estimations we normally use ;)



What they fumbled with regards to the NES Classic was not explicitly mentioning it was a limited time item, meant for brand awareness and an extra holiday push, not for large scale sales.

And again that's on them for being dumb with a product that their marketing teams would know would sell and continue to sell.

Nintendo makes dumb ass decisions period. Go look at the Discord app thread for Switch and see how many people think what they have for voice chat is a great decision.

They could have made the games a prelude to VC for switch or made the NES classic updatable for you to buy official NES game downloads as they are released that are linked to your NIntendo account that works on the Switch.

They just make dumb poor decisions on a lot of their products that make a lot of us including me scratch my head.
 

Stanng243

Member
If you're talking about launching a new platform coming of off the succes of the Wii and the DS i'd be inclined to agree. Nintendo did prepare for massive demand with both the 3DS and the Wii U. The problem is that when the demand wasn't there, they bled massive amounts of money with both the price cut of the 3DS, constant revisions, rushing big sellers to market and being forced to buy back stock that was sent back.

After all of that, i'm very sorry but no, Nintendo could not have prepared better for a Global launch. After the disaster of the Wii U and 3DS, Nintendo had to calculate in the risk that the Switch might not perform and could stay on the shelves unsold for months, maybe years. As has happenend for the past six years with their platform.

Compounding the issue is the fact they chose to launch in March. Look at the launch of any product outside the holiday season and you'll find that the Switch launch numbers are minor miracle in and of themselves. No videogame console/handheld has ever sold this much in a month outside of the Holiday. The only system that comes close to those numbers is the Game Boy Advance, a system that launched 16 years ago. Even if you say their line-up was rushed(I disagree BTW, Switch's line-up is far better then anything they've ever managed outside the SNES or GBA), that still means nobody should have expected Nintendo to have more stock available.

Had Nintendo actually tried to get 18 million Switch units for the first year, straight off the bat, investors would have rightfully called them insane in light of their recent flops.

Sorry for the long response. I've been bottling this up for a while.

You honestly believe it's best that a company plans to fail instead of plans to succeed? That sounds insane to me. This slow launch is hurting them. There is no way it couldn't be. Look at last months numbers. The PS4 was huge and more than most expected. I'd imagine at least some of them went to the store to get a switch, and came away with a cheap PS4.
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
You honestly believe it's best that a company plans to fail instead of plans to succeed? That sounds insane to me. This slow launch is hurting them. There is no way it couldn't be. Look at last months numbers. The PS4 was huge and more than most expected. I'd imagine at least some of them went to the store to get a switch, and came away with a cheap PS4.

I am having this debate now. Have been since the Switch launched.

I can get a refurbed PS4 Slim for $199...or a refurbed Pro for $289. Even a new Slim is less than a Switch and it comes with a game.

Dont know if Nintendo is at fault, component issues are the fault...but its a missed opportunity. Hopefully for them it will be better when Mario Odyssey launches...

Granted whats going on with XBO is interesting too if the Switch is affect its sales.

I'm also amazed by this:

As amazing and mindblowing as Ubisoft digital sale on PS4 > PC+XB1, not that I'm laughing at either but it's really crazy.

Screenshot-7_18_2017-5_57_36-PM2.jpg

PS4 SOLD more than both XB1 and SWITCH!!

Well deserved Sony. 2017 stream of games has been really amazing, well done.

I couldnt get the comment title to show, had to quote it, lol.
 

joe_zazen

Member
how is the buzz for Destiny 2? Google Trends has "Destiny" at 21 for 2017 beta period so far vs 35 during the 1st beta in 2014. The numbers are relative, with 100 being max interest which occurred around launch in 2014.

I'm guessing the numbers will go up as other platforms come online. Are there other tools for measuring buzz open to the public?
 

ethomaz

Banned
how is the buzz for Destiny 2? Google Trends has "Destiny" at 21 for 2017 beta period so far vs 35 during the 1st beta in 2014. The numbers are relative, with 100 being max interest which occurred around launch in 2014.

I'm guessing the numbers will go up as other platforms come online. Are there other tools for measuring buzz open to the public?
All platforms are already open for this phase... the Beta will only become public to everybody tomorrow.
 
Yes, they absolutely could have. What you're suggesting is that Nintendo planned based on the assumption Switch would be a failure. Thus by definition they could've prepared better for success.

Microsoft was brutally savaged in the press and enthusiast web throughout most of 2013. They had perhaps the most disastrous marketing failure in the history of videogames: Xbox One was weaker, more expensive, TV TV TV, was sending your data to the NSA, etc.

They then shipped almost 4 million consoles in the first 6 weeks, a number Nintendo hit around 14 weeks. Microsoft planned for success, even though there was plenty to fear.

Of course, this was expensive for them, and would've been for Nintendo. But as a consumer, why the heck should I care if a company has to dip into their cash reserves, or make less profit for a few months? Nintendo put their own satisfaction ahead of their customers'. It's their choice to make, but they don't get to be immune to criticism for making it.

Two things:
1)Back in 2011 Nintendo made a forcast of 16 million sold 3DS for the full fiscal year ending on march 2012. Then in 2012, Nintendo made a forcast of 5 million sold Wii U's by the end of march 2013. Missing their forcast on both accounts when the results finally came in. Looking back, it was obvious that Nintendo would never sell the amounts they thought they would. Especially as both systems had to have their forecast lowered with each new fiscal quarter report.

The Switch then, is not planning on the Switch being a failure. That 10 million forcast is far more realistic of what they would have sold had the Switch had the reception of the 3DS and Wii U.

Comparing it to the Xbox One is also pretty hilarious, seeing as that Microsoft didn't even have the balls to launch the system globally after it's E3 reception. Instead it chose to launch in countries where the Xbox brand was strong enough to take the blow. That's not planning for succes. More like planning on taking the blows you know you're going to receive LOL.

And frankly, it's quite disingenuous to bring in your own expectations as a consumer when talking about how a company plans for the launch of it's new product. Next to consumers who want their product, Nintendo has to able to justify their forcasts to investors. Investors that saw quite a bit of money they invested, outright disappear thanks to the underperformance of the 3DS and the flop of the Wii U. Whatever a consumer actually wants doesn't become clear until the day the product actually launches, what an investor wants is what Nintendo is confronted by every day of the year.

You honestly believe it's best that a company plans to fail instead of plans to succeed? That sounds insane to me. This slow launch is hurting them. There is no way it couldn't be. Look at last months numbers. The PS4 was huge and more than most expected. I'd imagine at least some of them went to the store to get a switch, and came away with a cheap PS4.
Who the hell ever said they were planning on failing? I didn't. What I said was that the underperformance and flop of the 3DS and Wii U did not allow Nintendo to plan beyond the initial 10 million target they set for this fiscal year without running into problems. Both within the company itself, as well towards investors.

And it's quite hilarious this slow launch is 'hurting' them. Demand for the Switch is still immensely strong, with software performing very strong as well. Sure the PS4 is doing tremendous numbers at the moment, but it's not coming at the expense of momentum for the Switch. We would have seen results like that pop up by now with unsold Switches sitting on store shelves. Or can I now expect some anecdotal evidence, telling me exactly that?
 

Vyrance

Member
For those interested... the June data media release is scheduled to release on time this evening.

I'll try to be around to answer questions if anyone has any.

As I'm sure you all understand, I won't be commenting on any unsanctioned information that might be floating out there.

Looking forward to it! Hoping Crash did very well
 
So when they launch with 5 titles on launch day, and had their unveiling in January with people on stage talking about games they haven't even started because they hadn't received kits, your going to say they were prepared?

I don't know about Zedark, but I certainly am ready to do just that. The easy way to that is to look at how Nintendo decided to launch the Wii U. Put everything on the market at launch, then leave your newly minted customers hanging for about 8 months. After which your big new release is Game & Wario and third party games get either cancelled or delayed to be launched as multiplatform games.

Switch, on the other hand, has Nintendo releasing with 5 titles on launch day(not unheard of, by the way) and then having multiple games spread over the next 6/7 months until various big name titles are ready for release. The amount of games released in the same time frame remains the same but the effect being that people who own a Switch see a nice mixture of new and old releases every week from launch onward.

Of course, their online being shitty and a rushjob is true. Again
 
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