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StreetsAhead · Jan 29, 2014

So, the 15 billion increase in R&D budget and 8 billion yen increase in marketing seems to be a big factor in their YOY profit being negative or am I reading it wrong?

Also, MK8 basically confirmed for next FY - no way they have it for March and are only expecting 399K units sold WW this Q.

Ninja Scooter · Jan 29, 2014

LeleSocho said:
The attach rate of the 3ds doesn't seem to be good.

In fairness there is a greater emphasis on digital sales with 3DS than there was with previous systems, not sure how much of a difference that makes though.

It's interesting the way Nintendo positions the systems in that chart, with the Wii and DS on their own as sales monsters. People always bring up how if you take out the Wii as an outlier you see a steady decline in console marketshare from NES to SNES to N64 to GC and now Wii U, but I wonder if that will end up holding true with the handheld business as well if 3DS doesn't end up matching GBA's numbers. Could be concerning for Nintendo.

Randolph Freelander · Jan 29, 2014

LeleSocho said:
The attach rate of the 3ds doesn't seem to be good.

It isn't. DS was sitting around 5.2 near the same time period, 3DS is at 3.6.

Kazerei · Jan 29, 2014

I'm looking forward to the presentation slides...

JoeM86 · Jan 29, 2014

What I'm trying to work out are Nintendo's projections

Through Q3 FY3/2014, they are at a Net Profit of $98.6million (10.195bn¥), yet for the entire year, they're projecting a Net Loss of $240 million (25bn¥). Is this just due to the new shift in R&D budget (13bn¥) and Advertising (8bn¥)? Their Q4 seriously can't be that bad

The Boat · Jan 29, 2014

Log4Girlz said:
Let me borrow an Atari Marketing slogan. Do the math.

What math is there to do? What other numbers do we have other than shipped? Do we know how many are left unsold? Do we know if units sold significantly differ from shipped? If they do, next year's numbers will reflect this, so it seems pointless to talk about shipped vs sold when we have no idea what the difference is and it's an industry wide practice, thus being the standard we can measure from.

AniHawk · Jan 29, 2014

Ninja Scooter said:
I wonder if 3DS will catch GBA LTD numbers. Will it have a long enough shelf life?

comparatively, the 3ds is about 5-6m behind the gba right now. in japan, the 3ds has basically caught up with the gba's lifetime sales, but sales in america are much lower. the gba was often the top-selling platform in a given month in america.

right about now is when the ds came out as far as the gba is concerned. it had another really good year and then sales started to dip quickly as nintendo's focus clearly shifted.

i don't see the 3ds overcoming the gba's sales unless nintendo gets it down to $99 somehow. they would also need to drop software prices.

Tagg9 · Jan 29, 2014

Am I reading it wrong, or is Nintendo buying back ~$1.2 Billion USD worth of shares?

vinnygambini · Jan 29, 2014

Aqua, I have a hard time understanding the share repurchase program. Can you elaborate?

JoeM86 · Jan 29, 2014

Tagg9 said:
Am I reading it wrong, or is Nintendo buying back ~$1.2 Billion USD worth of shares?

I believe they are. They're buying the late Yamauchi's shares back.

That would also explain the big gap I am seeing between Q1-Q3 and Q4 in profits.

ohbabyitsken · Jan 29, 2014

Ninja Scooter said:
In fairness there is a greater emphasis on digital sales with 3DS than there was with previous systems, not sure how much of a difference that makes though.

It's interesting the way Nintendo positions the systems in that chart, with the Wii and DS on their own as sales monsters. People always bring up how if you take out the Wii as an outlier you see a steady decline in console marketshare from NES to SNES to N64 to GC and now Wii U, but I wonder if that will end up holding true with the handheld business as well if 3DS doesn't end up matching GBA's numbers. Could be concerning for Nintendo.

These numbers are from Nintendo themselves so obviously they include digital. Attach rate is probably low thanks to smartphone competition with free-$5 games.

Jamix012 · Jan 29, 2014

Randolph Freelander said:
It isn't. DS was sitting around 5.2 near the same time period, 3DS is at 3.6.

It does look like it'll outdo both the GBA and the GB lines in attach rates though, I'd say it's doing pretty decently (though perhaps a little under what would be expected.)

AniHawk said:
comparatively, the 3ds is about 5-6m behind the gba right now. in japan, the 3ds has basically caught up with the gba's lifetime sales, but sales in america are much lower. the gba was often the top-selling platform in a given month in america.

right about now is when the ds came out as far as the gba is concerned. it had another really good year and then sales started to dip quickly as nintendo's focus clearly shifted.

i don't see the 3ds overcoming the gba's sales unless nintendo gets it down to $99 somehow. they would also need to drop software prices.

I don't think so. The GBA was a beast, but it fell off pretty quickly. The 3DS is actually following the PSP-trajectory more closely except it has like 5-10 million lead. We'll see how it ends up, but I'd be surprised if it fell short of 75 million and I feel fairly confident it'll crack the GBA.

Onesimos · Jan 29, 2014

The financial numbers are as expected. Now for the slides...

vinnygambini · Jan 29, 2014

JoeM86 said:
I believe they are. They're buying the late Yamauchi's shares back.

That's not what I am reading:

Method of acquisition - Market purchased on the Tokyo Stock Exchange

Rösti · Jan 29, 2014

Kazerei said:
I'm looking forward to the presentation slides...

Not long now:

Been thinking on where it's best to post the bingo card I usually make for Nintendo Direct broadcasts, this time for the CMPB. Maybe in its separate thread?

StreetsAhead · Jan 29, 2014

JoeM86 said:
What I'm trying to work out are Nintendo's projections

Through Q3 FY3/2014, they are at a Net Profit of $98.6million (10.195bn¥), yet for the entire year, they're projecting a Net Loss of $240 million (25bn¥). Is this just due to the new shift in R&D budget (13bn¥) and Advertising (8bn¥)? Their Q4 seriously can't be that bad

They're predicting only .399 million Wii U and 1.85 3DS for the quarter sold WW so that might have an effect?

Just noticed 2DS is at 2.11 million (1.11 in US, 1 in 'Other').

Madao · Jan 29, 2014

Wii is the Nintendo console with the second best attach ratio and GC is the best one in that category.

shows how useless that stat is.

SolarPowered · Jan 29, 2014

HUELEN10 said:
5 million huh... At current rate at 5 year cycle, wouldn't it be only slightly higher or lower than the GCN, or am I thinking of something else?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=97423709&postcount=424

Cheerilee said:
N64
96/97 - 5.80 million
97/98 - 9.42 million
98/99 - 7.86 million
99/00 - 6.49 million
00/01 - 2.85 million
01/02 - 0.50 million

Total - 32.92 million

GameCube
01/02 - 3.80 million
02/03 - 5.76 million
03/04 - 5.02 million
04/05 - 3.92 million
05/06 - 2.35 million
06/07 - 0.73 million
07/08 - 0.16 million

Total - 21.74 million

Wii U
12/13 - 3.45 million
13/14 - 2.80 million?

Aquamarine said:
Wii
06/07 - 5.84 million
07/08 - 18.61 million
08/09 - 25.95 million
09/10 - 20.53 million
10/11 - 15.08 million
11/12 - 9.84 million
12/13 - 3.98 million
13/14 - 1.2 million?

Total - around 101.5 million

Tripon · Jan 29, 2014

Hope you guys like HD remakes of Mario and Zelda, and Wii line of games because that sure sounds like what we're going to get.

cafemomo · Jan 29, 2014

I know this won't help much, but shouldn't Nintendo consolidate some of their subsidiaries?

Put all of Asia/Japan under one roof.

Same with Europe, locate it in France since that is where NERD is. Do they really need Nintendo of Taiwan or Russia?

B.O.O.M · Jan 29, 2014

Madao said:
Wii is the Nintendo console with the second best attach ratio and GC is the best one in that category.

shows how useless that stat is.

Within context it's a very useful and telling stat actually

mattiewheels · Jan 29, 2014

Almost 2 billion games sold between the DS and Wii is almost incomprehensible. The mass market was with them completely at that point, now they don't even know the Wii U exists.

Hiltz · Jan 29, 2014

It's nice to know Wind Waker HD sold pretty well for a updated port. I bet we'll see another HD port in the future.

Sandfox · Jan 29, 2014

Tripon said:
Hope you guys like HD remakes of Mario and Zelda, because that sure sounds like what we're going to get.

I'd buy HD versions of Twilight Princess and the Galaxy games.

StreetsAhead · Jan 29, 2014

Onesimos said:
The finacial numbers are as expected. Still, I wanted to know how many copies of Super Mario 3D World sold, unless it sold less than a million worldwide.

I think it's already over 1 million between US sales and Japan sales combined, though. EU and digital would have to be practically 0.

Tripon said:
Hope you guys like HD remakes of Mario and Zelda, because that sure sounds like what we're going to get.

If you could spend 6 months on a game and sell a million copies at ~$60, wouldn't you?

Log4Girlz · Jan 29, 2014

Madao said:
Wii is the Nintendo console with the second best attach ratio and GC is the best one in that category.

shows how useless that stat is.

What?

JoeM86 · Jan 29, 2014

StreetsAhead said:
They're predicting only .399 million Wii U and 1.85 3DS for the quarter sold WW so that might have an effect?

Just noticed 2DS is at 2.11 million (1.11 in US, 1 in 'Other').

Still, that wouldn't account for these numbers.

pieatorium · Jan 29, 2014

their forecast is 2.8 m by march right. I dont think they can ship another 800k in 3 months when it took them 9 including the holidays to ship 2mill

numble · Jan 29, 2014

JoeM86 said:
I believe they are. They're buying the late Yamauchi's shares back.

That would also explain the big gap I am seeing between Q1-Q3 and Q4 in profits.

A buyback should not have any affect on profit reports. Neither would dividend payments.

Graphics Horse · Jan 29, 2014

2 million 2desses? Not bad.

Can someone explain why their 2012 and 2013 Wii U HW/SW numbers don't add up to the LTD numbers? I'm sure there'll be some technical reason.

Kriken · Jan 29, 2014

Tripon said:
Hope you guys like HD remakes of Mario and Zelda, because that sure sounds like what we're going to get.

I don't know I think a Majora's Mask HD remake would be a terrible idea

PLEASE MAKE THIS HAPPEN

NateDrake · Jan 29, 2014

2DS sales over 1 million in the Americas and another million in 'Others'. Should expect a release in Japan sometime this yr, I would guess.

JoeM86 · Jan 29, 2014

numble said:
A buyback should not have any affect on profit reports. Neither would dividend payments.

Then these don't necessarily add up, even with a slow Q4.

And_Gignac · Jan 29, 2014

Pokemon numbers are amazing considering how leggy the franchise is. Same about ALBW, it could reach 4 million by the end of the year.

Ridley327 · Jan 29, 2014

B.O.O.M said:
Within context it's a very useful and telling stat actually

Yeah, it means that Gamecube owners, few as they were in the grand scheme of things, were pretty damn content with the system, and bought quite a few titles on it. The Wii is a little bit harder to pin down, simply because of the explosion of the Blue Ocean strategy that saw a few titles clear the 20 million sold threshold.

wazoo · Jan 29, 2014

Otakumegane said:
This is good right?

Typical (not Ocarina) lifetime sales for a Zelda game is around 4M, so this Zelda is selling quite on track.

StreetsAhead · Jan 29, 2014

pieatorium said:
their forecast is 2.8 m by march right. I dont think they can ship another 800k in 3 months when it took them 9 including the holidays to ship 2mill

They've sold 2.41 and they want 2.8 for the FY, so they "only" need 399k for Q4, no?

Graphics Horse · Jan 29, 2014

pieatorium said:
their forecast is 2.8 m by march right. I dont think they can ship another 800k in 3 months when it took them 9 including the holidays to ship 2mill

Says 2.4m since April so 400k for the next 3 months.
Edit:too late

Rösti · Jan 29, 2014

pieatorium said:
their forecast is 2.8 m by march right. I dont think they can ship another 800k in 3 months when it took them 9 including the holidays to ship 2mill

Yeah, FY 2013 ends the 31st of March this year.

pieatorium · Jan 29, 2014

StreetsAhead said:
They've sold 2.41 and they want 2.8 for the FY, so they "only" need 399k for Q4, no?

ok must have read it wrong. that seems more manageable but still probably wont ship that many

1st Course · Jan 29, 2014

Since Parmenides is not here:

Wii U Unit Sales (Unit: Million)

Code:

Hardware       Ap-Jn    Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr      FY      LTD

FY 2012/13       -        -      3.06     0.39      3.45     3.45

FY 2013/14     0.16     0.30     1.95      -        2.41     5.86



Software       Ap-Jn    Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr      FY      LTD

FY 2012/13       -        -      11.69    1.73      13.42    13.42   

FY 2013/14     1.03     5.27      9.66      -       15.96    29.73

3DS Unit Sales (Unit: Million)

Code:

Hardware       Ap-Jn    Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr      FY      LTD

FY 2010/11       -        -        -      3.61      3.61     3.61

FY 2011/12     0.71     2.36      8.36    2.10      13.53    17.13       

FY 2012/13     1.86     3.20      7.65    1.24      13.95    31.09

FY 2013/14     1.40     2.49      7.76        -     11.65    42.74



Software       Ap-Jn    Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr      FY      LTD

FY 2010/11      -        -         -      9.43      9.43     9.43

FY 2011/12     4.53     3.60     19.91    7.96      36.00    45.42    

FY 2012/13     7.39     11.64    20.53    10.05     49.61    95.03

FY 2013/14     11.01    16.37    29.87      -       57.25    152.29

vinnygambini · Jan 29, 2014

StreetsAhead said:
They've sold 2.41 and they want 2.8 for the FY, so they "only" need 399k for Q4, no?

Correct.

Interestingly, Nintendo digital sales increased by 70 million from Q1-Q3. Digital products are going to be a major focus from Nintendo going forward.

They now stand at 180 million from Q1-Q3. Conversely, last year they stood at 110 million.

dpatel304 · Jan 29, 2014

Rubixcuba said:
Whilst that would be a good attach rate, I think that is referring to shipped not sold.

If they didn't sell as many as they shipped (which is very likely), wouldn't that just mean an even better attach rate?

AniHawk · Jan 29, 2014

Tripon said:
Hope you guys like HD remakes of Mario and Zelda, and Wii line of games because that sure sounds like what we're going to get.

where?

And_Gignac · Jan 29, 2014

Randolph Freelander said:
It isn't. DS was sitting around 5.2 near the same time period, 3DS is at 3.6.

DS attach rate is over represented by the casual gamer aimed software.

Griss · Jan 29, 2014

StreetsAhead said:
They've sold 2.41 and they want 2.8 for the FY, so they "only" need 399k for Q4, no?

It will be very interesting to see if they can ship 400k over the next quarter, as it'll tell us a lot about how much stock is sitting on shelves as well as retailer confidence in MK8 and Smash moving consoles.

We don't have any definitive sell through numbers, do we? I'd love to get a rough idea of what percentage of the 5.86 they've actually gotten to consumers.

Mattias · Jan 29, 2014

Wii U will most likely sell worse than Gamecube.

Mysterious · Jan 29, 2014

Melkr_ said:
DS attach rate is over represented by the casual gamer aimed software.

That is still software sold. Likely high margin as well.

AniHawk · Jan 29, 2014

Madao said:
Wii is the Nintendo console with the second best attach ratio and GC is the best one in that category.

shows how useless that stat is.

aside from the 3ds, the game boy has the worst attach ratio. 4.22:1. (3ds is 3.56:1).

TheLink117 · Jan 29, 2014

Onesimos said:
The finacial numbers are as expected. Still, I wanted to know how many copies of Super Mario 3D World sold, unless it sold less than a million worldwide.

"With respect to "Wii U," Nintendo released key first-party titles such as "The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD," "Wii Party U" and "Super Mario 3D World" from summer toward the year-end sales season. While these titles each sold over one million units. . ."

Happy to see that Super Mario 3D World is over a million, every single Wii U owner should buy it and so should everyone else. Nice to see WWHD sold relatively well too. It'd be interesting to see how many of those were people that never played the game before.

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