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Sony expects to Sell 20 million PS4 in current Fiscal Year (Apr 2016 - Mar 2017)

noobie

Banned
Sony Just gave their 2016 Financial Forecast and in the game segment they say they will sell 20 million PS4. If my memory is correct only PS2 and Wii have sold 20 million or more consoles in a financial year.

So a price cut is incoming? and more games coming?

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Complete financial Forecast PDF

Previous peak years over 20m for all systems:

PS1 FY98: 21,600,000*

PS2 FY02: 22,520,000*
PS2 FY03: 20,100,000*

NDS FY07: 23,560,000
NDS FY08: 30,310,000
NDS FY09: 31,180,000
NDS FY10: 27,110,000

WII FY09: 25,950,000
WII FY10: 20,530,000

*production shipments

Historic Data
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I think this topic needs a separate thread. But Mods have the final say.
 

noobie

Banned
Along with PS4K

but as has been, seen price cuts have diminishing returns.. So with $50 price cut last year, they only managed to sell 17.7 million PS4.. and now if they do just a $50 price cut they will not even hit 17.5 million.. So i expect PS4 regular to be around $249 or $269. Otherwise they need to revise it down.
 

Rymuth

Member
Love the 'and more games coming????' like it's some sort of complete shock they haven't gone bankrupt or something. But it wouldn't be noobie without a backhanded compliment.

On-topic: It's been a good year for them in terms of games, so I don't see the momentum slowing any time soon. They'll hit that target, I believe.
 

kadotsu

Banned
If they price the PS4 Base aggressively I could see it. It also helps that Japanese teams are releasing their AAA games this fiscal (FF, Persona) so it'll get a small bump from that. VR is happening, too.
 

Striek

Member
but as has been, seen price cuts have diminishing returns.. So with $50 price cut last year, they only managed to sell 17.7 million PS4.. and now if they do just a $50 price cut they will not even hit 17.5 million.. So i expect PS4 regular to be around $249 or $269. Otherwise they need to revise it down.
Your analysis is shockingly well reasoned and evidence based. Err wait...
 
Must be a huge upswing in software quantity and quality. Timing is right to start seeing the games that were greenlit after publishers saw PS4's record breaking launch. As I understand it, there was trepidation up until that point.
 

bobbytkc

ADD New Gen Gamer
but as has been, seen price cuts have diminishing returns.. So with $50 price cut last year, they only managed to sell 17.7 million PS4.. and now if they do just a $50 price cut they will not even hit 17.5 million.. So i expect PS4 regular to be around $249 or $269. Otherwise they need to revise it down.

You are not including the PS4K. This is a mid generation console launch. That has to count for something.
 

Elios83

Member
That's really aggressive and consider that last year the forecast was upped twice so they're not taking this lightly.
My guess based on this number: PS4 Neo is the PS4 Slim, 299$.
 

IvanJ

Banned
but as has been, seen price cuts have diminishing returns.. So with $50 price cut last year, they only managed to sell 17.7 million PS4.. and now if they do just a $50 price cut they will not even hit 17.5 million.. So i expect PS4 regular to be around $249 or $269. Otherwise they need to revise it down.

No, I think it will be only a drop to $299, but also a valid expectation that XOne will start declining even more than it already is.
Sony needs to fulfill gaming needs of people in all those 100+ countries that XOne doesn't sell in.
 
Crash bandicoot confirmed.

I think for that to be mind blowing in this day and age they would have to do a lot of shit to it and it wouldn't be like old crashes, and then it will be like doom when it first appeared and people will shit all over it. I bet if they are making it, ND are not doing it and they handed it to the original producer cerney and the knack team. After all that is their platformer team and what are they working on now?
 
noobie being the creator of this thread makes me nervous lol.

20 million is easily doable for them I think. Of course they'd reach that figure sooner if they released a MediEvil at some point in the next ten months or so! wink wink nudge nudge
 

NateDrake

Member
That's really aggressive and consider that last year the forecast was upped twice so they're not taking this lightly.
My guess based on this number: PS4 Neo is the PS4 Slim, 299$.

You think the PS4 Neo - an upgraded PS4, is going to sell for $299?

I think Sony comes short of this goal. They'll need a strong holiday in terms of sales and software to reach that number. They'll come close, unless they do a drastic price cut later this year.
 

HooYaH

Member
I think for that to be mind blowing in this day and age they would have to do a lot of shit to it and it wouldn't be like old crashes, and then it will be like doom when it first appeared and people will shit all over it. I bet if they are making it, ND are not doing it and they handed it to the original producer cerney and the knack team. After all that is their platformer team and what are they working on now?

I don't even know what would spark that huge of an upspring even with the releases of PS4K and PSVR unless Sony has exclusivity to a big game like Red Dead Redemption 2.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
They'll likely eventually stop producing the original PS4 at all since it will likely stay on the 28 nm process.

Anyways, I hope they have more in mind to get 20 million boxes into homes this FY than a controversial new version just three years in. They need exclusives and some way of pushing sales from casual consumers. Not sure what it will be, but considering the OG PS4 could theoretically play 4k/30 FPS video/photo content, as well as some very simple games with its HDMI spec and capabilities if it were ever unlocked (won't be now), they could have already done and marketed that, frankly.

So I wonder what they have up their sleeve. I hope it's even more games.
 
With what, Uncharted 4? Horizon was delayed, right?
I couldn't think of any other blockbuster PS4 titles coming around that time. Maybe they'll snatch a marketing deal for certain huge games. I'm not saying 20 million is not possible though.

Edit: Right, price cut would make more sense.
 
With what, Uncharted 4? Horizon was delayed, right?
I couldn't think of any other blockbuster PS4 titles coming around that time. Maybe they'll snatch a marketing deal for certain huge games. I'm not saying 20 million is not possible though.

GT Sport will help shift a few units. It is still Sony's biggest first-party IP after all.
 

HooYaH

Member
With what, Uncharted 4? Horizon was delayed, right?
I couldn't think of any other blockbuster PS4 titles coming around that time. Maybe they'll snatch a marketing deal for certain huge games. I'm not saying 20 million is not possible though.

Horizon can still make it for the fiscal year since it lasts to March 2017.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
With what, Uncharted 4? Horizon was delayed, right?
I couldn't think of any other blockbuster PS4 titles coming around that time. Maybe they'll snatch a marketing deal for certain huge games. I'm not saying 20 million is not possible though.

What did the PS4 sell 40 million on?

Besides, Sony's 2 biggest IPs will launch this fiscal year, it cannot get any bigger than that (the last time it happened was God of War 3 and Gran Turismo 5 in 2010).
 
If NPD is an indicator through Q1, they're already up YOY by 10%-ish and thats back at a at the higher price of $349, with a couple of months being a slower part of the year.

So not surprising, I think we have Neo @$349 for the premium and Regular @$249 come the holidays, with that i think 20m should be easy with the lineup of games we have.
 

Skeeter49

Member
I don't think it's too out there. They will have their heavy hitters series that they haven't had this gen yet, with GT Sports, and this ones more speculation, but hopefully GOW4. Most GOW's, all the SSM developed ones anyway, have come out in March. I could also see those two games being games people held out buying the console for until they were out.

Horizon having huge success, PSVR, and PSNeo are all huge factors as well, and considering we haven't seen GOW yet, GOW4 might not be out in March, and Horizon Zero Dawn might be that big March game.
 
I don't even know what would spark that huge of an upspring even with the releases of PS4K and PSVR unless Sony has exclusivity to a big game like Red Dead Redemption 2.

I don't think crash would either, I think E3 will be interesting and if I was Sony I would push for horizon for this fall or at least in this FY I think that will push more units then crash would tbh. The 20 million will come from neo and og ps4 sales not just the old one. Maybe they do have year of dreams 2.0 in the works this year, if they drop a trailer for a new from exclusive I'm sure people will lose their shit and the meltdowns in that thread will be glorious.
 
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