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Takashi Mochizuki: Capcom expects to sell 2mil copies of MVC:I, 1.5mil for MH World

wwm0nkey

Member
Link

J7NXXl0.png


Think they got this one a bit backwards hahaha

// Mod Edit:

It's not clear if these numbers are from Capcom or not. The tweet sequence implies that an analyst visited Capcom, talked to them about their expectations, and then reported out in an investor letter. Some tweets do directly say the numbers quoted are Capcom's expectations, but since we don't have the original letter, we don't know if that applies to the Monster Hunter figure as well. That said, MvC:I does match Capcom's statement.
 

Zedark

Member
Don't think those are Capcom's predictions, but the predictions of the firm mentioned in the tweet, BGC Partners Anvarzadeh. 1.5 million for Q1 2018 would be a terrible result, though, a drastic decline in sales from the mainline games on 3ds.
 

Lelou

Member
with this prediction how they just think it could benefit to put the series on a home console rather than the usual handheld?
They will get money from loss after the release of 4 titles?
 

Ridley327

Member
Don't think those are Capcom's predictions, but the predictions of the firm mentioned in the tweet. 1.5 million for Q1 2018 would be a terrible result, though, a drastic decline in sales from the mainline games on 3ds.

It's looking likely that the game is releasing just before the end of the quarter, so with the anticipated downturn in Japanese sales due to the platform switch, it's really not that crazy of an estimate. I think it might be a tough number to hit for other reasons, but if this does wind up being a genuine expectation for Capcom, it's the first reasonable one they've made in a long time.
 
These aren't Capcom's expectations. Amir Anvarzadeh is an analyst for BGC Partners (company mentioned in the tweet).

I don't blame him for being conservative about MH World anyway.
 

TheMoon

Member
Amir Anvarzadeh
http://www.bgcpartners.com/bgc/
BGC Partners is a leading global brokerage company servicing the financial and real estate markets. We are experts in our fields, agile and dynamic in our approach, and built upon the foundation of cutting edge technology and exceptional talent.

This is basically Pachter.

This has nothing to do with Capcom's expectations.

edit: beaten with a poorly researched, rolled-up newspaper

either way, OP ...pls fix your post.
 

wrowa

Member
What makes people think these aren't Capcom's? Mochizuki clearly phrases it this way and I'd think he knows what he's talking about. Judging by his tweets, these are the sales estimates Capcom told BGC Partners Anvarzadeh during his visit. *shrug*

"For USF II, MH XX and RE Revelations on Switch, Capcom has estimated sales at around 300,000-500,000 copies each."

"Ultra Street Fighter II for Switch sold as many as 450,000 copies, way above the Capcom's target of 200,000 copies."

These numbers are actually even in line with this slide:

pdf_17.png


For the past FYs, the titles are ordered by decreasing sales estimates. The current FY seems to be the only outlier with MvCI over MHW - but if Capcom currently only expects 1.5m for MHW, it would be in line with the format of previous FYs. (What doesn't fit is the extremely high unit sales estimation for this year, though).
 

Jawmuncher

Member
If capcom expects 1.5 million for MH:W it'll end up doing 1 million. Since they seem to have a curse on even their more cautious estimates.
 

Vena

Member
What makes people think these aren't Capcom's? Mochizuki clearly phrases it this way and I'd think he knows what he's talking about. Judging by his tweets, these are the sales estimates Capcom told BGC Partners Anvarzadeh during his visit. *shrug*

"For USF II, MH XX and RE Revelations on Switch, Capcom has estimated sales at around 300,000-500,000 copies each."

"Ultra Street Fighter II for Switch sold as many as 450,000 copies, way above the Capcom's target of 200,000 copies."

Because that number is very low for the franchise barring it launching a week before the end of FY. Capcom was promising (without committing, which I suppose is a huge red flag) big things to investors for World during their previous call so we were expecting larger numbers, much larger. You can't promise your investors "big things" and then report series lows for a mainline, 4-years in the making release with god knows what sort of budgetary cost. Unless they expect some sort of huge surge in FY2018.

Maybe its seeing internal dev issues and is running late, and now they have had to revise estimate down.
 

NotLiquid

Member
2 million for Infinite is reasonable. Despite fan blowback the Marvel craze is high right now and the story stuff is likely appealing to that casual base who similarly bought Injustice. As they ramp up on the advertising as well, the recent story trailer has 3.4 million views on Marvel vs Capcom's main channel after 5 days. It'll most likely have some good mindshare.

MHW is interesting cause it seems like a release more contingent on the western base. But it should definitely perform higher than that estimate.
 

Kouriozan

Member
Monster Hunter seems low coming up from 3+M sellers, but they can sell it at a higher price so it should even out?
What's worrying is that Capcom failed to reach their sales expectations multiple times lately, so good luck.
 

Defuser

Member
MH:W sales will never be that low. It can easily do 1 million in Japan. The rest of the world can easily pick up another million.
 

Vena

Member
MH:W sales will never be that low. It can easily do 1 million in Japan. The rest of the world can easily pick up another million.

It won't easily do a million in Japan, it may not "easily" even get near a million.

Monster Hunter seems low coming up from 3+M sellers, but they can sell it at a higher price so it should even out?
What's worrying is that Capcom failed to reach their sales expectations multiple times lately, so good luck.

The real problem for this FY is that they have impossible expectations for their older software, look at what they anticipate from RE7. Impossible.
 
It was being mentioned in MC thread.
2M seems high for half a year for MVCI when SFV couldn't do that in a year and a half.

MH isn't a big franchise WW so I'm not sure 1.5M in like a month seems too realistic either
 

blakep267

Member
MH:W sales will never be that low. It can easily do 1 million in Japan. The rest of the world can easily pick up another million.
It's a home version of the game. It's not a lock to assume that the PS4 version will be as accepted as the handheld versions of the game in Japan
 

BitStyle

Unconfirmed Member
Thats not Capcom.

Yeah, this was discussed in the Media Create thread as well. This is the firm's estimates of Capcom's expectations.

No way Capcom expects 1.5mil for MHW. Way too low. Especially for their 10.3 million SW target for this FY
 

NotLiquid

Member
It was being mentioned in MC thread.
2M seems high for half a year for MVCI when SFV couldn't do that in a year and a half.

MH isn't a big franchise WW so I'm not sure 1.5M in like a month seems too realistic either

Business partners are probably expecting the "Marvel" element to carry Marvel vs Capcom. It has a lot more pull than Street Fighter.
 

Xion_Stellar

People should stop referencing data that makes me feel uncomfortable because games get ported to platforms I don't like
That estimate for Monster Hunter World is too short if you ask me.
 

Vena

Member
Yeah, this was discussed in the Media Create thread as well. This is the firm's estimates of Capcom's expectations.

No way Capcom expects 1.5mil for MHW. Way too low

I think the problem in wording is that "Capcom told" part, makes it sound like Anvarzadeh was told this when he was, in person, at Capcom in a representative meeting.

It may not be a direct estimate from Capcom, but if it is indeed from a rep-analyst meeting, it probably not far from the truth.
 

Ridley327

Member
How many PS4 games have sold 1 million in Japan thus far? Not sure it will easily do 1 million.
We got our first official million seller last week in DQXI!

DQXI is our hard ceiling for MHW, and given how the series has trended on consoles versus handheld in the past, it is not at all an unreasonable suggestion to make that MH does not enjoy anywhere near the level of platform agnosticism that DQ continues to have.
 

Mael

Member
How many PS4 games have sold 1 million in Japan thus far? Not sure it will easily do 1 million.

Has anything but Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest ever done more than 1M in Japan on ps4 anyway?

We got our first official million seller last week in DQXI!

DQXI is our hard ceiling for MHW, and given how the series has trended on consoles versus handheld in the past, it is not at all an unreasonable suggestion to make that MH does not enjoy anywhere near the level of platform agnosticism that DQ continues to have.

Even FF didn't do that this gen?
Woah.
 

Sesha

Member
We knew about the estimate for Infinite, so no news there. The estimate for World, if true, is unexpected but understandable.

Don't think those are Capcom's predictions, but the predictions of the firm mentioned in the tweet, BGC Partners Anvarzadeh. 1.5 million for Q1 2018 would be a terrible result, though, a drastic decline in sales from the mainline games on 3ds.

It's not launching on 3DS, though. It's PS4/X1/PC with a focus on the West, and is $60. Different markets and different price. Considering those factors, previous sales on consoles, and that MHXX has sold "just" 1.7m when they expected 2, it's a reasonable estimate. 1.5m isn't necessarily bad because previous games have sold better.
 
Guess it depends on when MHW releases. If these are indeed Capcoms internal estimates, I suppose it's not bad to finally lowball/have some realistic expectations.

1.5 mil seems solid to me, especially if most of those will be in the west.
 

Kinsei

Banned
I feel like World will meet that expectation easily. Unless the release window is packed with other games here in the west I can;t see it doing less than 1 mil and it will surely do over 500k in Japan.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Why a lot of threads with false info these days?

Edit - Well the thread was at least half fixed... these are not not Capcom predictions.
 
We got our first official million seller last week in DQXI!

DQXI is our hard ceiling for MHW, and given how the series has trended on consoles versus handheld in the past, it is not at all an unreasonable suggestion to make that MH does not enjoy anywhere near the level of platform agnosticism that DQ continues to have.

Thanks! I thought it was 1 or 2. Was thinking Final Fantasy XV may have made it, but wasn't sure if it had. I believe it was just shy though, right?

Yea, I don't think we can say it will easily do a million in Japan then.
 

Ridley327

Member
Has anything but Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest ever done more than 1M in Japan on ps4 anyway?



Even FF didn't do that this gen?
Woah.
IIRC, there's been some debate as to whether XV crossed that milestone solely via physical sales. Not that there's anything wrong with getting the assist from digital, but it feels like a long time ago now that FF was a surefire million seller on the charts.
 

Defuser

Member
How many PS4 games have sold 1 million in Japan thus far? Not sure it will easily do 1 million.

How many PS4 games have sold 1 million in Japan thus far? Not sure it will easily do 1 million.

Dragon Quest XI did 950,315 on the first week for the PS4 and it already hit over 1 million so far.

MH3 for Wii sold 520,000 on it's first week and it's LTD is over 1 million so far. I may have used the wrong word by saying easily but hitting 1 million is very possible for Japan.
 

Vena

Member
Dragon Quest XI did 950,315 on the first week for the PS4 and it already hit over 1 million so far.

MH3 for Wii sold 520,000 on it's first week and it's LTD is over 1 million so far. I may have used the wrong word by saying easily but hitting 1 million is very possible for Japan.

MHWii only got to a million by being, effectively, given away.
 
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