M-C 1000 2018
01. NSW - 13.690.616 <48,05%>
02. PS4 - 10.740.999 <37,70%>
03. 3DS - 2.942.191 <10,33%>
04. PSV - 1.023.787 <3,59%>
05. WIU - 66.655 <0,23%>
06. XB1 - 26.073 <0,09%>
00. ALL - 28.490.321 <100,00%>
M-C 1000 2018 Top 20 Publishers
01. Nintendo - 9.971.257 <35,00%>
02. Capcom - 2.735.760 <9,60%>
03. Bandai Namco Games - 2.231.249 <7,83%>
04. Pokemon Co. - 1.996.035 <7,01%>
05. Sony Interactive Entertainment - 1.608.904 <5,65%>
06. Square Enix - 1.410.270 <4,95%>
07. Sega - 900.363 <3,16%>
08. Koei Tecmo - 849.747 <2,98%>
09. Konami - 738.612 <2,59%>
10. Microsoft Game Studios - 541.094 <1,90%>
11. Electronic Arts - 521.318 <1,83%>
12. Ubisoft - 487.701 <1,71%>
13. Level 5 - 458.876 <1,61%>
14. Atlus - 394.455 <1,38%>
15. Take-Two Interactive Japan - 347.951 <1,22%>
16. Spike Chunsoft - 330.352 <1,16%>
17. Marvelous - 320.936 <1,13%>
18. Nippon Columbia - 250.211 <0,88%>
19. Bethesda Softworks - 234.078 <0,82%>
20. Nihon Falcom - 186.604 <0,65%>
00. Other - 1.974.548 <6,93%>
00. Total Software Sales - 28.490.321 <100,00%>
M-C 1000 2019
01. NSW - 16.646.620 <61,97%> (+21.6%YOY)
02. PS4 - 9.235.333 <34,38%> (-14%YOY)
03. 3DS - 664.355 <2,47%> (-77.4%YOY)
04. PSV - 301.706 <1,12%> (-70.3%YOY)
05. XB1 - 12.946 <0,05%> (-50.3%YOY)
06. ALL - 26.860.960 <100,00%> (-5.7%YOY)
M-C 1000 2019 Top 20 Publishers
01. / 01. Nintendo - 7.903.662 <29,42%> (-20%YOY)
02. / 04. Pokemon Co. - 3.216.372 <11,97%> (+61%YOY)
03. / 03. Bandai Namco Games - 2.543.566 <9,47%> (+14%YOY)
04. / 06. Square Enix - 2.288.930 <8,52%> (+14%YOY)
05. / 02. Capcom - 1.576.212 <5,87%> (-42%YOY)
06. / 05. Sony Interactive Entertainment - 1.290.509 <4,80%> (-20%YOY)
07. / 07. Sega - 878.618 <3,27%> (-2%YOY)
08. / 09. Konami - 798.504 <2,97%> (+8%YOY)
09. / 08. Koei Tecmo - 628.410 <2,34%> (-26%YOY)
10. / 10. Microsoft Game Studios - 518.952 <1,93%> (-4%YOY)
11. / 11. Electronic Arts - 507.476 <1,89%> (-3%YOY)
12. / 14. Atlus - 470.285 <1,75%> (+19%YOY)
13. / 13. Level 5 - 433.404 <1,61%> (-6%YOY)
14. / 12. Ubisoft - 396.122 <1,47%> (-19%YOY)
15. / 17. Marvelous - 311.499 <1,16%> (-3%YOY)
16. / 00. From Software - 302.470 <1,13%>
17. / 15. Take-Two Interactive Japan - 274.347 <1,02%> (-21%YOY)
18. / 16. Spike Chunsoft - 219.447 <0,82%> (-34%YOY)
19. / 20. Nippon Columbia - 176.539 <0,66%> (-29%YOY)
20. / 00. Warner Entertainment Japan - 161.596 <0,60%>
00. Other - 1.964.040 <7,31%> (-0.5%YOY)
00. All Publishers - 26.860.960 <100,00%> (-5.71%YOY)
*This are physical sales estimated by Media-Create for Japan 2018/2019's Top 1000 Games
Rumblings...
This year where according to Famitsu Switch has about 80% of the physical software share in Japan, while in terms of hardware due to anemic supply by Sony, Nintendo is selling 88% of the hardware. The Switch just surpassed 15 Million hardware sales and is catching up to the 3DS launch aligned with larger and larger shipments every passing month. Holidays are coming, games are still waiting for their release dates - Bravly Default 2 & Rune Factory 5. There is actual decent support by 3rd Parties even if those two games don't make it. Software sales have already surpassed last year's numbers for Nintendo/Pokemon Company and within the Top 100 for Famitsu for 2020 they make up 67.9% of physical software sales. Holidays will be madness if Monster Hunter really does launch on the Switch. But even without it, is this is what consolidation looks like? Considering Nintendo has uped the production - supply for Japan will allow it Nintendo to sell 6.5 to 7 million Switches this year.
Japan remains the 3rd biggest video game market and this will have a long term impact on other publishers both in Japan and western. 25 to 30M seems like the floor for the Switch's lifetime sales. With rumours about a Pro and still no official price cut, both the Lite and Docked should be a lot less costly to manufacture right now.
In the meantime, PS5 is launching... well digital isn't a preference for Japan due to the used-game market, this will mean that PS5 is more expensive than the PS4, it's bulky, doesn't provide portable gaming and on top is backward compatible - not exactly what a mid-sized or small Japanese Publisher is looking for, small install size, and you are already faced with huge competition because of the HUGE used game market. This year will have major implications for Sony, if the PS5 limps out of the gate in Japan, especially in terms of the smaller pubs like Nippon, Koei, Spike Chunsoft, Marvelous, D3 and so on.. despite the huge support provided to the PS4 by Square, Bandai, Sega & Capcom not having a portable has pretty much handed the market to Nintendo. PS4 will end up behind PS3 despite much stronger support and Sony trying their best to move the PSV audience ot the PS4. This will ensure that any franchise that remains Sony exclusive is not going to remain relevant in Japan outside of a very small niche.
Interesting times ahead, wonder if something similar will occur in other larger markets South Korea and Taiwan are trending the same way already. We shall see what happens in France & Germany but those are four markets that could follow Japan's trend in 2021. For France & Germany it will be less pronounced since Nintendo, for now, isn't getting the latest greatest shooty footy bang bangs or GTAV... maybe the Switch Pro will change this
01. NSW - 13.690.616 <48,05%>
02. PS4 - 10.740.999 <37,70%>
03. 3DS - 2.942.191 <10,33%>
04. PSV - 1.023.787 <3,59%>
05. WIU - 66.655 <0,23%>
06. XB1 - 26.073 <0,09%>
00. ALL - 28.490.321 <100,00%>
M-C 1000 2018 Top 20 Publishers
01. Nintendo - 9.971.257 <35,00%>
02. Capcom - 2.735.760 <9,60%>
03. Bandai Namco Games - 2.231.249 <7,83%>
04. Pokemon Co. - 1.996.035 <7,01%>
05. Sony Interactive Entertainment - 1.608.904 <5,65%>
06. Square Enix - 1.410.270 <4,95%>
07. Sega - 900.363 <3,16%>
08. Koei Tecmo - 849.747 <2,98%>
09. Konami - 738.612 <2,59%>
10. Microsoft Game Studios - 541.094 <1,90%>
11. Electronic Arts - 521.318 <1,83%>
12. Ubisoft - 487.701 <1,71%>
13. Level 5 - 458.876 <1,61%>
14. Atlus - 394.455 <1,38%>
15. Take-Two Interactive Japan - 347.951 <1,22%>
16. Spike Chunsoft - 330.352 <1,16%>
17. Marvelous - 320.936 <1,13%>
18. Nippon Columbia - 250.211 <0,88%>
19. Bethesda Softworks - 234.078 <0,82%>
20. Nihon Falcom - 186.604 <0,65%>
00. Other - 1.974.548 <6,93%>
00. Total Software Sales - 28.490.321 <100,00%>
M-C 1000 2019
01. NSW - 16.646.620 <61,97%> (+21.6%YOY)
02. PS4 - 9.235.333 <34,38%> (-14%YOY)
03. 3DS - 664.355 <2,47%> (-77.4%YOY)
04. PSV - 301.706 <1,12%> (-70.3%YOY)
05. XB1 - 12.946 <0,05%> (-50.3%YOY)
06. ALL - 26.860.960 <100,00%> (-5.7%YOY)
M-C 1000 2019 Top 20 Publishers
01. / 01. Nintendo - 7.903.662 <29,42%> (-20%YOY)
02. / 04. Pokemon Co. - 3.216.372 <11,97%> (+61%YOY)
03. / 03. Bandai Namco Games - 2.543.566 <9,47%> (+14%YOY)
04. / 06. Square Enix - 2.288.930 <8,52%> (+14%YOY)
05. / 02. Capcom - 1.576.212 <5,87%> (-42%YOY)
06. / 05. Sony Interactive Entertainment - 1.290.509 <4,80%> (-20%YOY)
07. / 07. Sega - 878.618 <3,27%> (-2%YOY)
08. / 09. Konami - 798.504 <2,97%> (+8%YOY)
09. / 08. Koei Tecmo - 628.410 <2,34%> (-26%YOY)
10. / 10. Microsoft Game Studios - 518.952 <1,93%> (-4%YOY)
11. / 11. Electronic Arts - 507.476 <1,89%> (-3%YOY)
12. / 14. Atlus - 470.285 <1,75%> (+19%YOY)
13. / 13. Level 5 - 433.404 <1,61%> (-6%YOY)
14. / 12. Ubisoft - 396.122 <1,47%> (-19%YOY)
15. / 17. Marvelous - 311.499 <1,16%> (-3%YOY)
16. / 00. From Software - 302.470 <1,13%>
17. / 15. Take-Two Interactive Japan - 274.347 <1,02%> (-21%YOY)
18. / 16. Spike Chunsoft - 219.447 <0,82%> (-34%YOY)
19. / 20. Nippon Columbia - 176.539 <0,66%> (-29%YOY)
20. / 00. Warner Entertainment Japan - 161.596 <0,60%>
00. Other - 1.964.040 <7,31%> (-0.5%YOY)
00. All Publishers - 26.860.960 <100,00%> (-5.71%YOY)
*This are physical sales estimated by Media-Create for Japan 2018/2019's Top 1000 Games
Rumblings...
This year where according to Famitsu Switch has about 80% of the physical software share in Japan, while in terms of hardware due to anemic supply by Sony, Nintendo is selling 88% of the hardware. The Switch just surpassed 15 Million hardware sales and is catching up to the 3DS launch aligned with larger and larger shipments every passing month. Holidays are coming, games are still waiting for their release dates - Bravly Default 2 & Rune Factory 5. There is actual decent support by 3rd Parties even if those two games don't make it. Software sales have already surpassed last year's numbers for Nintendo/Pokemon Company and within the Top 100 for Famitsu for 2020 they make up 67.9% of physical software sales. Holidays will be madness if Monster Hunter really does launch on the Switch. But even without it, is this is what consolidation looks like? Considering Nintendo has uped the production - supply for Japan will allow it Nintendo to sell 6.5 to 7 million Switches this year.
Japan remains the 3rd biggest video game market and this will have a long term impact on other publishers both in Japan and western. 25 to 30M seems like the floor for the Switch's lifetime sales. With rumours about a Pro and still no official price cut, both the Lite and Docked should be a lot less costly to manufacture right now.
In the meantime, PS5 is launching... well digital isn't a preference for Japan due to the used-game market, this will mean that PS5 is more expensive than the PS4, it's bulky, doesn't provide portable gaming and on top is backward compatible - not exactly what a mid-sized or small Japanese Publisher is looking for, small install size, and you are already faced with huge competition because of the HUGE used game market. This year will have major implications for Sony, if the PS5 limps out of the gate in Japan, especially in terms of the smaller pubs like Nippon, Koei, Spike Chunsoft, Marvelous, D3 and so on.. despite the huge support provided to the PS4 by Square, Bandai, Sega & Capcom not having a portable has pretty much handed the market to Nintendo. PS4 will end up behind PS3 despite much stronger support and Sony trying their best to move the PSV audience ot the PS4. This will ensure that any franchise that remains Sony exclusive is not going to remain relevant in Japan outside of a very small niche.
Interesting times ahead, wonder if something similar will occur in other larger markets South Korea and Taiwan are trending the same way already. We shall see what happens in France & Germany but those are four markets that could follow Japan's trend in 2021. For France & Germany it will be less pronounced since Nintendo, for now, isn't getting the latest greatest shooty footy bang bangs or GTAV... maybe the Switch Pro will change this
