A long time. The chip shortages could last years longer. I've heard estimates as far as 2026. No doubt some months will be better than others and it won't stay this bad, but being able to buy one at any time? Don't hold your breath.
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Demand may be weakening according to those graphs.
Even though I voted mid-2023, I think there’s a real possibility it will never happen. In 2023, there will likely be a slim edition and the cycle repeats again. Everybody will be looking to offload the current monstrosity for a sleeker version so I suppose second hand originals will be readily available. Then in 2024/5 Pro comes out and we begin a third cycle of scarcity.