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Super Smash Bros. for 3DS & Wii U Thread 6: Final Destination confirmed for not fun

once again, just because people were too clouded by their own biases to consider it doesn't make it true with regards to WFT
now Sakurai backtracking on Villager is interesting
 

Village

Member
Hey, Village: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias

Sakurai singled Animal Crossing out as not fitting Smash Bros. during the Brawl days. Out of the 100+ members to enter the GAF roster prediction contest, I think one person included Villager in their roster. Nobody included Wii Fit Trainer -- and looking beyond GAF, she wasn't even entertained as a possible inclusion. There are two or three known instances of people even mentioning Wii Fit in the context of Smash Bros., and they're in the form of obscure years-old GameFAQs posts.

Wii Fit Trainer was not a safe pick by any stretch.

Sakurai changes his mind about move sets all the time.
Its why wolf and wario weren't in melee, its not hard to fathom him changing his mind. Epically the guy who eliminated an SSE like story mode( which I do not believe really ) , because youtube.

If you stop taking this weird mans word for ghospel, your smashspectations ( see what I did there ) would be.. I dunno less surprising .

You can't retroactively say she was safe.

No one predicted her.

No one predicting her ( which I know is false because I know someone who did ) isn't really the thing. No one predicted snake either, but people were surprised by snake, every person I talked about wii fit trainer went. Oh yeah that makes sense. Aside from fanboys freaking out on the internet the concept of the wii fit trainer wasn't too foreign
 
once again, just because people were too clouded by their own biases to consider it doesn't make it true with regards to WFT
now Sakurai backtracking on Villager is interesting
You're confusing a logical pick from Sakurai's point of view with a safe pick in a fake roster maker's point of view. Unless you have proof that you predicted WFT beforehand, I can't take you seriously.
 

Ryce

Member
once again, just because people were too clouded by their own biases to consider it doesn't make it true with regards to WFT
now Sakurai backtracking on Villager is interesting
Would you mind linking me to your own pre-E3 Wii Fit Trainer speculation/prediction posts? (I'm kidding -- I already know they don't exist.)

Nobody's saying that Wii Fit Trainer isn't a good pick. We're saying that she was completely and utterly unexpected, and it's very unlikely that somebody was able to "guess" her inclusion mere days before E3.
 
You're confusing a logical pick from Sakurai's point of view with a safe pick in a fake roster maker's point of view. Unless you have proof that you predicted WFT beforehand, I can't take you seriously.

well, then you've just revealed a severe flaw in how the average fan evaluates character chances

also very funny Ryce, I didn't even have an account prior to E3, next you're probably going to call me out for not opposing DRM aren't you
 

Village

Member
You're confusing a logical pick from Sakurai's point of view with a safe pick in a fake roster maker's point of view. Unless you have proof that you predicted WFT beforehand, I can't take you seriously.

Ah ok this is where this is going.

Well at least on my behalf I cannot prove to you that my friend called WFT because I have conversations outside of internet forums.
 
well, then you've just revealed a severe flaw in how the average fan evaluates character chances

also very funny Ryce, I didn't even have an account prior to E3
Sure, but WFT still isn't a safe pick.

That's like saying Mr. G&W was a safe pick, because G&W is a huge part of Nintendo's history.

Ah ok this is where this is going.

Well at least on my behalf I cannot prove to you that my friend called WFT because I have conversations outside of internet forums.
So one person guessed it = safe pick? That's ridiculous.
 

SmithnCo

Member
No one predicting her ( which I know is false because I know someone who did ) isn't really the thing. No one predicted snake either, but people were surprised by snake, every person I talked about wii fit trainer went. Oh yeah that makes sense. Aside from fanboys freaking out on the internet the concept of the wii fit trainer wasn't too foreign

No one predicting her kinda is the thing because that makes it not a safe pick, in my view. With the amount of speculation around smash, the fact that WFT wasn't really considered by anybody says a lot.

And again, he guessed the name exactly. The odds of just guessing the character, the name, and Villager in general are very slim to me.
 

Ryce

Member
These Prodigy/Village posts are textbook examples of hindsight bias. It's impossible to respond to them. Wii Fit Trainer was not a safe or expected choice prior to her reveal -- end of story.
 

DaBoss

Member
I can't believe we're even having this discussion.

And it involves people pretending that Wii Fit Trainer was a safe choice. I thought that leak would have been widely accepted by now lol. Guess I put too much faith in people.
 

Village

Member
I can't believe we're even having this discussion.

And it involves people pretending that Wii Fit Trainer was a safe choice.
I thought that leak would have been widely accepted by now lol. Guess I put too much faith in people.

I am surprised you all were surprised.

These Prodigy/Village posts are textbook examples of hindsight bias. It's impossible to respond to them. Wii Fit Trainer was not a safe or expected choice prior to her reveal -- end of story.

I wasn't surprised about wii fit trainer , therefore hindsight bias. I feel like, I need an adult, to talk to . About dumb fighting games.

I was surprised about megaman, because Crap Com. Wii fit trainer I went " oh that makes sense "

Sure, but WFT still isn't a safe pick.

That's like saying Mr. G&W was a safe pick, because G&W is a huge part of Nintendo's history.


So one person guessed it = safe pick? That's ridiculous.

So an insular and self contained smash community that is a super minority decided that person in a game that a lot of the people in smash wasn't even on the table, and this community regularly asks for waluigi and King K rool. = Unsafe pic

Because those guys all the people talk about smash on the web, let alone all the people who play smash.

Plus isn't about prediction, its about actually being surprised about it. I was more surprised about megaman than anything else.
 
These Prodigy/Village posts are textbook examples of hindsight bias. It's impossible to respond to them. Wii Fit Trainer was not a safe or expected choice prior to her reveal -- end of story.
Yup.

Anyway, about the leak, I remember there was still some doubt a few months ago (What if he was mistaken and thought the boxing stage confirmed Little Mac? Why did he get the release date wrong?), but that pretty much dried up with the Little Mac reveal. Little Mac was arguably the least likely of those three characters in my opinion, and since we've seen more stuff to suggest Mii will be joining him soon.
 
I dunno, I thought Villager was a pretty safe pick.

Now, Wii Fit Trainer? I knew we would probably get a Wii Fit stage or something but having a character was a huge shock.
 
Nobody or their mother ever predicted WFT in their mock up rosters, they were too busy adding Geno, Krystal & Waluigi.

I have absolutely no idea what some people's definition of "safe pick" is in this thread btw, there's so much miscommunication here.
 

Village

Member
What does being surprised have to do with it

Ufffffff

It wasn't an alarming person to pic, made to me .

Megaman? I was suprised as hell, after this?

Marvel_Vs_Capcom_3_box_artwork.jpg


I was down right confused, hell I am still confused about what exactly is happening about megaman.

you know what, lets leave it alone. I am sorry if I hurt you feelings, she and he weren't crazy choices for me I even have a friend that called " wii fit lady ". So i dunno sorry. I honestly don't know what to tell you , do you want me to lie?
 

DaBoss

Member
If you thought Villager was a safe pick, you were just latching on to hopes and dreams lol. Villager is only one of 2 characters he outright denied in Brawl. Reason was he is not a fighter.

Wii Fit Trainer is not a fighter either, so why would someone expect Wii Fit Trainer if he outright denied Villager? Post-reveal, it seems Sakurai is being quite creative with move sets and doesn't really limit himself.
 
Nobody or their mother ever predicted WFT in their mock up rosters, they were too busy adding Geno, Krystal & Waluigi.*

I have absolutely no idea what some people's definition of "safe pick" is in this thread btw, there's so much miscommunication here.

*you forgot Ridley (higher prediction percentage than Ike, fucking lol)
 
Okay, anyone who says that Wii Fit Trainer was a "safe choice" is just fucking bonkers, I'm sorry. Biggest piece of hindsight bias bullshit I have ever seen in these threads, and I've seen a lot.
 

SmithnCo

Member
Nobody or their mother ever predicted WFT in their mock up rosters, they were too busy adding Geno, Krystal & Waluigi.

I have absolutely no idea what some people's definition of "safe pick" is in this thread btw, there's so much miscommunication here.

Yeah, I have no idea what world exists where WFT is a safe pick. Even if you predicted her it doesn't make it safe. I can predict that the lady who throws flower pots from Urban Champion will be playable but that doesn't make it a safe pick.
 
*you forgot Ridley (higher prediction percentage than Ike, fucking lol)

Ridley's issues are largely that he's a total pain to add as playable in a respectable way though. Most of those other characters are barely relevant to their own franchise.
(Or are single handedly responsible for killing them.)


Yeah, I have no idea what world exists where WFT is a safe pick. Even if you predicted her it doesn't make it safe. I can predict that the lady who throws flower pots from Urban Champion will be playable but that doesn't make it a safe pick.

I honestly would like to know how the people that call WFT a safe pick would define the term "safe pick". I just don't get it.
 
I dunno, I thought Villager was a pretty safe pick.

Now, Wii Fit Trainer? I knew we would probably get a Wii Fit stage or something but having a character was a huge shock.

You sure? After that whole announcement on how Nintendogs and Animal Crossing couldn't get playable characters since Sakurai couldn't see them fighting other characters?

5dm8oVz.jpg
 
I mean, even I was surprised by Villager, and I was one of those AC-lunatics who thought that picture just proved that Nook will be added instead.
 

Jagsrock

Banned
Saying WFT is a safe bet just because you and a friend "Called it" doesn't make it safe. (In March madness context) That's like picking a 16 seed against a 1 seed and wondering why the rest of the world is so shocked when the 16 wins(which has never happened btw)
 
If you thought Villager was a safe pick, you were just latching on to hopes and dreams lol. Villager is only one of 2 characters he outright denied in Brawl. Reason was he is not a fighter.

You sure? After that whole announcement on how Nintendogs and Animal Crossing couldn't get playable characters since Sakurai couldn't see them fighting other characters?

5dm8oVz.jpg

Given how he noted there weren't a lot of character-driven series between Melee and Brawl in the Dojo, I knew it'd be a matter of time before he changed his mind. Animal Crossing is unique among the casual-emphasized games in that both sides of the gaming population (core and casual) embrace it. From a purely core perspective, it was the only major franchise at the time that hadn't received a character rep and I always thought it was interesting how AC got a ton of content in Brawl and stuff like Nintendogs/Wii Sports had very little in comparison (or by themselves, really).

I figured he would do the same thing to Little Mac as well.
 

Village

Member
I honestly would like to know how the people that call WFT a safe pick would define the term "safe pick". I just don't get it.

Games that did well and the character was introduced atleast a generation prior.

I understand you all, before this previous generation back in melee I would have agreed with you though i was in elementary school with melee came out ( take that as you will ) so I would have agreed with a lot of things i do not agree with now. I would have called her a dumb dancy lady and wanted V joe for some dumb reason because I was dumb, I still am dumb.

But this past generation introduced me to so many fighting games where characters that aren't "fighters" it expanded my thoughts on fighting games in general. It does not have to limited to those kinds of guys sometimes pheonix wright, and homie from kochikame can throw hands too. That fighting games ,there always that guy from the series with out actually fighting that does well who gets thrown in. I am not saying i predicted everything about the trainers, no. I am saying that choice considering how fighting game characters aren't limited to just fighters, epically in a game like smash and considering how well, that game did i went " that makes sense" . It seemed right, safe, for me at least. Clearly I am alone in this, I dunno . I more surprised about mega man than anyone else revealed first.
 

Kriken

Member
Of the 5 confirmed newcomers, I'd only say Mega Man and Little Mac were 'safe picks'. Rosalina and Luma you could make an argument for as one, but there was no way Villager and Wii Fit Trainer were seen before the reveal as a consensus "Yeah, they'll totally make it in"

My 2 cents
 
Of the 5 confirmed newcomers, I'd only say Mega Man and Little Mac were 'safe picks'. Rosalina and Luma you could make an argument for as one, but there was no way Villager and Wii Fit Trainer were seen before the reveal as a consensus "Yeah, they'll totally make it in"

My 2 cents
Little Mac was pretty much a nonentity oversees though, so he wasn't really that likely before we knew there was a boxing ring stage.
 

Gleethor

Member
Of the 5 confirmed newcomers, I'd only say Mega Man and Little Mac were 'safe picks'. Rosalina and Luma you could make an argument for as one, but there was no way Villager and Wii Fit Trainer were seen before the reveal as a consensus "Yeah, they'll totally make it in"

My 2 cents

Honestly only Little Mac was safe in my mind, I was kinda surprised not to see him in the reveal trailer. Mega Man was obviously heavily requested but people were wary of Capcom's recent treatment of him.
 

SmithnCo

Member
It's not about the idea that the character makes sense, a lot of people said it makes sense after she was revealed. It's about the actual odds of guessing the character beforehand, in addition to Villager.

But we should probably move on from this topic lol
 
Games that did well and the character was introduced atleast a generation prior.

I understand you all, before this previous generation back in melee I would have agreed with you though i was in elementary school with melee came out ( take that as you will ) so I would have agreed with a lot of things i do not agree with now. I would have called her a dumb dancy lady and wanted V joe for some dumb reason because I was dumb, I still am dumb.

But this past generation introduced me to so many fighting games where characters that aren't "fighters" it expanded my thoughts on fighting games in general. It does not have to limited to those kinds of guys sometimes pheonix wright, and homie from kochikame can throw hands too. That fighting games ,there always that guy from the series with out actually fighting that does well who gets thrown in. I am not saying i predicted everything about the trainers, no. I am saying that choice considering how fighting game characters aren't limited to just fighters, epically in a game like smash and considering how well, that game did i went " that makes sense" . It seemed right, safe, for me at least. Clearly I am alone in this, I dunno . I more surprised about mega man than anyone else revealed first.
What you're saying is that she made sense after she was revealed, which no one is disputing. What we are disputing is that it was a safe bet to predict her. Which it wasn't. You're arguing something completely different.
 
It's not about the idea that the character makes sense, a lot of people said it makes sense after she was revealed. It's about the actual odds of guessing the character beforehand, in addition to Villager.

To me it's a combination of "actual odds of guessing" x "how much sense they make" x "external factors".
 
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