Shin Johnpv
Member
There is no way with the N3DS launching in most markets in 2015, that their next handheld is coming in 2016. I've already laid out the reasons why in this thread. It's not happening. Next handheld is 2017.
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Nintendo looking for Lead Graphic Engineer for Next-Gen Console SoC in Redmond
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Since the first DSi Nintendo has done a handheld revision every single year. With both N3DS and N3DS LL released at the same time, as well as them only being release in the Far East first and elsewhere much later, it's may be likelier (but not a given) that they skip the 2015 revision.
I agree, with the possibility of the complete lack of western third parties the console would have a lot of games already available at launch, if this system was in place this gen, the Wii U would have on day one: Ocarina of Time 3D, Kid Icarus: Uprising, SSFIV, Starfox 64, SM3DL, MGS Snake Eater and RE Revelations.
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
It's going to be so fun to revisit this thread in a couple of years just to see how much speculation holds up.
I love threads like this for that very reason.
Shin Johnpv
Member
The DSi and the N3DS aren't simple handheld revisions. Not like the DS Lite, Pocket Gameboy, Gameboy Advance SP, or the 3DS XL were. None of those revisions changed the hardware specs that matter to games. The Gameboy Color, the DSi, and now the N3DS all do that. They all stayed on the market for 2 1/2 - 3 years before they're successor. 2017 for the new handheld.
You don't see numbers of battery life being nearly one hour because there is nothing that uses both CPU and GPU power at 100% for obvious reasons like the device being hot as a blast furnace and, case in point, battery life.
There was a comma missing between "because" and "developer" in my post, both gpu manufacturers will at least double the amount of ram in their next gen architecture... go look Nvidia's Pascal introduction for more information, and just so you know high end cards already come with standard 4GB of ram with the highest end arriving at 6GB so yeah... What you see as the future is in reality already the present, actually is the past since Titan 6GB was out in February 2013.
You are downplaying the developers' needs in the future, if today they are starting to use the 5-8GB in the consoles you can bet everything you have that by the time next gen arrives they'll want way more of that, remember when everyone laughed at Crytek when they said they wanted 8GB in PS4/Xbone?
And you can't say that Nintendo's next OS will not be 3GB, nowadays they have an OS that takes up 1GB of ram in the WiiU while doing nothing more than what PS3/360 did... that's twice as much as the entire memory pool of the old gen consoles
The Shield Portable is the closest and last like 4 hours of Half-life 2. However, it has active cooling, and weights more than a N3DS XL and a Vita put together thanks to it's 7350 mAh battery
.The Shield Portable is the closest and last like 4 hours of Half-life 2. However, it has active cooling, and weights more than a N3DS XL and a Vita put together thanks to it's 7350 mAh battery
Yep, it also has a <300 ppi screen too to not drain so much energy.
Iwata has already basically stated that their next handheld is coming out in 2016. There's even a GAF thread about it: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=818167
Nintendo may want to wait until 2017, but the market has already spoken. Sales are falling fast for the 3DS everywhere in the world, even the N3DS isn't helping much in Japan. The 3DS is on its last legs and NIntendo has to react to that.
I'm not so sure about that. Square-Enix seems fully committed to the PS4 (FFXV, KH3 along with strong rumors of Dragon Quest XI, the FFVII remake and FFXVI), and wherever they go, the rest of the major Japanese third parties follow.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
How the fuck did I miss this thread.......
One of my personal hopes is that the next handheld will support a Chromecast like device to mirror the top screen to a TV.
One of my personal hopes is that the next handheld will support a Chromecast like device to mirror the top screen to a TV.
TheMoon
Member
Not you. Not me. That's all I know.
Unless someone spends a week on linkedin or has inside info, you'll likely not know for quite some time.
Besides that, what else could they release on 3DS during the entire year of 2016? They're going all out on Wii U next year and only have a few big releases for the 3DS(MM3D, Xenoblade, Pokemon Z), at the end of next year it will have gotten every big game it possibly could, so it's not unreasonable to say that the next handheld will be launched in 2016.
Fourth Storm
Member
Odd bump indeed. Oh well.
I did a little news-digging yesterday, and came across some interesting nuggets that might have some effect on Nintendo's next gen...
First, there is speculation that AMD might be using Global Foundries exclusively in the future and also that they might be skipping 20nm for all but a few products. 20nm is rumored to be having significant yield issues and could have a short lifespan. If this is true, looking at a late 2016 time frame for the handheld and late 2017 time frame for the home console, Global Foundries 14nm technology (which is actually a licensed variant of Samsung's) might be the front runner for the process node. If so, this is quite good for the prospects of how much power Nintendo can cram into their TDP requirements...
Another tidbit I came across is that AMD did not provide any updates to Project Skybridge at their recent conference. These were the 20nm APUs which interchangeably used ARM and x86 cores and I had speculated that Nintendo's handheld might use a semicustom ARM variant. Apparently, AMD are not eager to chase the tablet market at the moment, so between this and the 20nm woes, that line may see a delay I'm thinking, and possibly resurface as 14nm Global Foundries products.
Finally, SK Hynix is apparently listing some High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) products as available now. I wonder if the 128 MB part they list might not act as a replacement for the eDRAM Nintendo loves so dearly. While it wouldn't be on-chip, they could use a System-in-package design similar to Wii U's MCM and get 128 GB/s of bandwidth using the current tech (by 2017, 256 GB/s products may also be available). Seeing as that HBM relies on very wide buses to achieve these data rates, I can't see Nintendo using the stuff for external main memory (that would probably have to be DDR4), but a small amount in a 2.5d package with the main SoC would be an efficient/low power alternative to eSRAM, such as that found in XBox One.
http://www.hardwareluxx.com/index.p...k-hynix-hbm-memory-and-gddr5-at-2000-mhz.html
http://www.setphaserstostun.org/hc2...Bandwidth-Kim-Hynix-Hot Chips HBM 2014 v7.pdf
I did a little news-digging yesterday, and came across some interesting nuggets that might have some effect on Nintendo's next gen...
First, there is speculation that AMD might be using Global Foundries exclusively in the future and also that they might be skipping 20nm for all but a few products. 20nm is rumored to be having significant yield issues and could have a short lifespan. If this is true, looking at a late 2016 time frame for the handheld and late 2017 time frame for the home console, Global Foundries 14nm technology (which is actually a licensed variant of Samsung's) might be the front runner for the process node. If so, this is quite good for the prospects of how much power Nintendo can cram into their TDP requirements...
Another tidbit I came across is that AMD did not provide any updates to Project Skybridge at their recent conference. These were the 20nm APUs which interchangeably used ARM and x86 cores and I had speculated that Nintendo's handheld might use a semicustom ARM variant. Apparently, AMD are not eager to chase the tablet market at the moment, so between this and the 20nm woes, that line may see a delay I'm thinking, and possibly resurface as 14nm Global Foundries products.
Finally, SK Hynix is apparently listing some High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) products as available now. I wonder if the 128 MB part they list might not act as a replacement for the eDRAM Nintendo loves so dearly. While it wouldn't be on-chip, they could use a System-in-package design similar to Wii U's MCM and get 128 GB/s of bandwidth using the current tech (by 2017, 256 GB/s products may also be available). Seeing as that HBM relies on very wide buses to achieve these data rates, I can't see Nintendo using the stuff for external main memory (that would probably have to be DDR4), but a small amount in a 2.5d package with the main SoC would be an efficient/low power alternative to eSRAM, such as that found in XBox One.
http://www.hardwareluxx.com/index.p...k-hynix-hbm-memory-and-gddr5-at-2000-mhz.html
http://www.setphaserstostun.org/hc2...Bandwidth-Kim-Hynix-Hot Chips HBM 2014 v7.pdf
Then I don't get what the fuss is about for the position, considering this thread ended up as another spec speculation instead.
TheMoon
Member
Well, it exists because of the specifics in that listing (required skills, etc) which then spurs discussion about the next systems among the tech enthusiasts here. It was never about who would fill that position.
The article claiming that AMD will be all but skipping 20nm seems to be reading far too much into the quote included in the article (unless there's another source I'm not aware of). High-end GPUs are basically guaranteed to use TSMC's 20nm process as soon as large-die yields hit acceptable levels, as otherwise they'd be basically incapable of competing with Nvidia. Other products like APUs will follow when it become profitable, which may take a while due to yield issues, but remember that exactly the same thing happened with 28nm (and may well happen again with 14nm).
The 128GB/s bandwidth is actually based off a 1GB stack of four 256MB dies, which seems to be the configuration they're working on at the moment. The next generation consists of four and eight-high stacks of 1GB dies, at 256GB/s per stack. In theory Nintendo could use HBM if they were going to put two 8GB stacks on an MCM with the SoC, but it doesn't really make much sense for them to use it as a dedicated framebuffer, particularly when you consider that Nintendo has had a habit of going with low-latency memory for this purpose (e.g. 1T-SRAM, eDRAM). HBM has a latency in the same league as (G)DDR, at ~40-50ns, whereas the eDRAM in the Wii U probably has a latency closer to 4-5ns.
If Nintendo were going with any stacked memory technology I'd actually consider Hybrid Memory Cube the more likely option, as it incorporates a memory controller on-die and uses a SERDES interface to the processor to reduce the bus width. Micron are currently shipping samples of 4GB HMC chips which achieve 160GB/s bandwidth over a 128-lane interface (compared to 1024-lane for HBM). Second gen chips are expected to push this up to 480GB/s over 128 lanes, and by the time Nintendo's next console launches it should be possible to get well into the hundreds of GB/s with the same 64-lane interface they use for the DDR3 on the Wii U. HMC is also advertised as having a particularly low latency, but seeing as I can't find hard numbers on that anywhere, I'd take it with a grain of salt.
I think people are expecting way too much from Nintendo and their next gen console.
If anything, a slightly more powerful PS4 can be reasonable since (afaik) Sony is already making profit from it so it would make sense for Nintendo to come up with a profitable yet powerful machine from day 0
As for their handheld division, now there's where I can see them pushing a little more.
By the time of release (2016-2017?) I can see them finding a nice middle ground between Vita and the high end phones we see today
If anything, a slightly more powerful PS4 can be reasonable since (afaik) Sony is already making profit from it so it would make sense for Nintendo to come up with a profitable yet powerful machine from day 0
As for their handheld division, now there's where I can see them pushing a little more.
By the time of release (2016-2017?) I can see them finding a nice middle ground between Vita and the high end phones we see today
Yep.
I think I'll be giving the next handheld plenty of time to grow before buying. I have not been overly impressed with 3DS.
I really feel that Nintendo does not need to be supporting two platforms at once.
Fourth Storm
Member
Perhaps they are indulging in a bit of speculation, but I think it's clear that 20nm is not going to have the legs of 28nm. And we have yet to see if the thing about GF doing the majority of the manufacturing ends up being true. As for 20nm projects, Skybridge may still appear next year (although the lack of info is striking), and we have rumors of a die shrink for Xbone/PS4. I've read rumors that AMD's high end GPUs will stay at 28nm and that the few 20nm designs would be for the more power-sensitive products. I suppose we'll find out soon.
I'm seeing 1 gigabit density in that data sheet. It may be a typo I suppose, because it doesn't match the leaked documentation from August I also linked to (which has the first generation as 1 gigabyte).
The only way I see HBM as a potential option is if Nintendo end up with a semicustom AMD processor. There are murmers that AMD want to include some HBM in package with their APUs and a game console might be a good opportunity to show off that configuration. But I'd imagine price is a factor, which is why I'd rule out Hybrid Memory Cube, especially since Micron/IBM (if Nintendo drop them) don't stand to gain much by giving Nintendo a good deal.
I don't think Nintendo's next home console is going to be a powerhouse, so they may just end up with DDR4 and some eSRAM (32-64 MB). From what I've read, modern GPUs hide latency really well, so unless they go a different route than Xbone and allowed the CPU to access said eSRAM, there probably wouldn't be much benefit in that regard. Either way, a split pool isn't optimal, but it all comes down to the price.
AMD might squeeze out another generation of cards on 28nm, as Nvidia have done with the 900 series, but with Apple already shipping iPads with 128mm² 20nm chips, it's only a matter of time before the ~300mm² dies necessary for high-end GPUs become feasible.
I just checked over that now, and although I was going on the slide presentation, the reference to 1Gb is in the past two datasheets, so it's unlikely to be a typo. It's also listed as being available now, so is it possible it's a sample chip? It doesn't make much sense to me that they'd go into full production with chips as small as 128MB, as the technology is clearly geared towards use as graphics memory, and for even a low-end 2GB card you'd need 16 such chips (on-package with the GPU, no less).
AMD's desire to push HBM in an APU configuration wouldn't necessarily lead to a deal on the chips themselves, as Nintendo would be buying them from SK Hynix, just the same as they'd be buying HMC directly off Micron. That said, HBM would obviously be simpler to integrate with an AMD APU, given AMD's involvement in the design of the technology, so it may be advantageous for that reason alone.
I also agree that Nintendo wouldn't necessarily go with anything esoteric when it comes to RAM, although I actually think they'll move away from split pools this time around for the sake of simplifying cross-platform development. Although, with GDDR reaching EoL around the time the next console launches, HBM and HMC may well be the only options to achieve the kind of bandwidth required in a single-pool architecture at that point.
And regarding latency, even as far back as the Gamecube, GPUs were highly-pipelined, high-latency designs, and Nintendo still went with low-latency primary memory pools on it, the Wii and the Wii U. Why they've done so is anyone's guess (perhaps it's due to their use as CPU scratchpads?), but it's certainly a Nintendo design trend for whatever reason.
I don't think HBM is out of possibility just because of its higher latency, you can always overcome this with caches (isn't much of a bottleneck for the PS4 either). I actually find it quite likely they will use it both for the 3DS successor and the WiiU successor. HBM is probably already in production for AMD's big chip that will be in the market in H1/2015, so it will be around for at least one year. As 2GB will be sufficent as would be 128GB/s for a handheld I don't think that costs will be a matter in 2016 and the years to come.
I definitely wouldn't rule out anything due to latency concerns, and it's most probable that there simply won't be a low-latency option available for Nintendo this time around (with the exception of a small pool of eDRAM or SRAM). That said, when you're speculating with pretty much zero evidence to go on, you'd be foolish not to consider past hardware decisions.
Edit: Actually, the more I think about it, the more HBM make sense to me. It'll probably have been in consumer devices for over two years by the time the next console comes out, so it'll be easily available (and not prohibitively expensive). With GGDR5 being phased out, the other options are HMC (which is possible, but may be more expensive), single-pool DDR4 (which would require a very wide bus to reach the necessary bandwidth, something Nintendo seems to dislike), or split pools of DDR4+eDRAM/SRAM, which I've stated my case against above. It would also be on-package with the CPU and GPU, which would simplify motherboard design and enable a more compact console.
On the handheld front, I don't see the need for anything like HBM. Standard LPDDR would provide the bandwidth required easily enough (even 64GB/s would be plenty).
Since we have to consider that the handheld can't cost too much (not higher than 199.99), is it possible to get a guesstimate about how much the total of costs for the parts of the configurations imagined in this thread (like Thraktor's one with 2GB RAM, or mine with 3GB), without production / marketing / other costs involved, would be right now? We can't now how much they will cost in 2 years (2016 should be when next handheld is released, wheter it's Q1 or Q4), but maybe knowing their cost now would help to get an idea? Considering how I'm not that much of a tech guy, I hope this isn't a stupid request XD
Jorok Goldblade
Member
I'm seeing this more as a scalable situation- the base model handheld will stick to that price with a lower-res screen, but there will also most likely be a premium model with 1080p screen. The processing power can be scaled to the resolution its outputting at. That said, $199 for the "Base Model" is probably what they'll be aiming for.
Keep in mind that Iwata has said the point of a unified architecture is to sell more hardware SKUs, not less.
Ryoma-Echizen
Member
Your not going to see 1080p on Nintendo's next handle.
Top screen 4.3"~
70% 800x480
20% 1280x768
9% 960x540
1% 400x240 (same resolution as 3DS)
0% 1920x1080
Shouldn't we be asking then who got chosen, or at least who we think got chosen?
Edit:
Wait, he wasn't? Isn't he still part of Sony's Board of Directors or something? Wouldn't we be hearing an announcement like Ken Kutaragi's departure from Sony?
Fast LPDDR memory doesn't come cheap either though, that's why I expect them to use HBM there as well.
Generally speaking I think we can expect something roughly in the WiiU ballpark performance wise. Because I expect a 480p screen (at least in a base SKU) this will lead to some beautiful results graphics wise.
Yeah, right, that's a concrete possibility, given what Iwata said. 199.99 is the max for the "Base Model" for sure.
Now that I think about it, when estimating current costs of components that could be in the next handheld, what about the 3D screen? How much does it cost right now (estimates wise)? Especially considering the New 3DS solution which should be used in the next handheld as well (actually, shouldn't the solution being on New 3DS already help in subsidizing costs - sorry for the incorrect terminology, probably -?).
Eteric Rice
Member
I expect that they're at least going to try to match the Vita's resolution.
I Stalk Alone
Member
It won't be 480p that's for sure. It's probably more expensive today to get a 480p screen than it is a 720p screen at 5 inch today 720p is pretty much a minimum for any phone or tablet being made today. 720 is probably the best thing for 5 inch screen in late 2016 and maybe 1600x900 for a 6 inch version mid 2018 and a 7 inch 1080p version in 2020 and with each revision having another increase in specs, enough to keep parity in performance with older models. This should keep people double dipping with hardware to play the same software they already own on a slightly higher species machine and sell the older machines at a budget price. They could even do this with their home consoles to keep the same price, same games but different resolutions and framerates but also sell a budget priced console which plays th same game at slightly lower resolution frameratr. The key is getting a unified software architecture happening. By the end of next gen I would not be surprised to see 5 hardware skus combined for both console and handheld all capable of playing the same games at different framerates and resolutions.
Having a unified software base would please the hardcore and the value customers as well free up their developers to create a more diverse library without all the droughts leading to increased software sales. Hopefully this can entice third party developers from that point as the potential for one big market, not overly fragmented by incompatible hardware will bring more software generally to the platform.
Developers can choose later in the gen to make some games with content exclusive to specific hardware versions if power affects the game enough to warrant it. This can be a big risk but at the same time can be marketed to sell a AAAA budget game with bundled hardware.
3DS' top screen is 800x240 and for sake of all the things i've mentioned in previous posts in this thread i would put 960x540 at very likely rather than a mere 9%.
Depending on how much they want they care on 3DS compatibility the other very likely resolution would be as you said 800x480.
There will neither be a multiple version hardware nor a 3d screen in the next Nintendo handheld.
TheMoon
Member
Again, who would answer? Without stumbling over it by accident on linkedin or having a source we just won't know.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
Nintendo gets their screens made to order. I think they'll pick whatever they feel fits the GPU/CPU/Battery.
There will absolutely be a 3D screen in their next handheld.
You are correct. Those that deride the gamepad fail to see that it was a very forward thinking concept. No, it wasn't presented or marketed to perfection, but it is one of the biggest innovations in recent gaming memory. I will be surprised if future consoles don't feature some sort of secondary display capability as a standard. Maybe not as large or central as the gamepad, but it will be there.
I remember thinking to myself "Man, screw that internet thing. There's nothing on there worth the money they are charging for access." and that went on to become a moderate success.
Those two have the best Chances at being the resolution of thhe next Handheld.
Also i guess the Screen will be at least 5'.
I mean look at the 3DS. It has a Top-Screen-Size of 3'53. Now, look at the average Phone-Screen-Size in the Year it launched (2011):
It's exactly the same size. If they are going to launch their next Handheld in 2016/2017, i think they will try to match avarage Phone-Size again, wich will be at at least 5' by that Time.
It's not a stupid request, but it is unfortunately one that's pretty much impossible to answer with any degree of certainty. While there are components that you could forecast the price of relatively easily (flash memory, Lithium Ion batteries, etc), the main components would end up being pretty much pure guesswork, as prices for SoCs will depend on yields for manufacturing processes (i.e. 14nm) that haven't even started mass production yet, and if you get into things like HBM there isn't even a frame of reference yet.
No, they're going for a 4" screen in 2017
Seriously, though, why not? Following on from past handhelds, a 4" screen at launch and then an XL model with a 5" screen after a couple of years seems the most likely turn of events.
It's more expensive than regular DDR, yes, but I can't imagine it not being cheaper than a specialist memory like HBM. There are also power and thermal issues for a technology like HBM which is designed for the desktop environment.
The bolded almost certainly isn't true, both because there are plenty of phones out there with 480p screens (which would be 720p if it was truly cheaper) and because, as Grandpa Simpson said, Nintendo get their screens to order, and will be buying in the tens of millions, so it'll certainly not be a matter of picking them off the shelf. However, even if it was true, the total cost of the handheld would still end up lower if Nintendo were to use a 480p screen, as the graphics horsepower necessary to be "on par" with the home console would be considerably higher for a 720p screen.
And converging hardware architectures might make it cheaper to support multiple hardware configurations, but it certainly doesn't make it free. Every time you add an extra hardware configuration you add on additional cost to every single game in development, and even old games would have to be updated to support the higher resolutions of the new hardware. There's an outside chance Nintendo might go with a higher resolution screen on the XL handheld, but trying to support five different hardware configurations at once would be far more hassle than it's worth. QA would probably end up consuming 50% of most games' budgets.
Glad to hear you guys both have definitive information on this!
Those two have the best Chances at being the resolution of thhe next Handheld.
Also i guess the Screen will be at least 5'.
I mean look at the 3DS. It has a Top-Screen-Size of 3'53. Now, look at the average Phone-Screen-Size in the Year it launched (2011):
It's exactly the same size. If they are going to launch their next Handheld in 2016/2017, i think they will try to match avarage Phone-Size again, wich will be at at least 5' by that Time.
Also it's worth noting that the 3DS XL is already on par with the current average phone screen size.
ArchedThunder
Banned
It drives up the cost and many people don't use it, it's likely to be dumped.
800x480 makes the most sense for Nintendo.