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NPD Sales Results for January 2016

so I think it can really hit if Sony manage it well enough.

It's not impossible, but it's just well... harder for new IPs to launch out-the-gate with sales so strong that it's very likely a strong factor in moving systems.

I mean, Titanfall and Destiny are two very strong examples. Titanfall sold close to 1 million in the NPDs at March. Can Horizon do that? Not impossible, but it'l be pretty hard.
 

MisterR

Member
Too little too late. And there's some stuff that is just there and can't be fixed (like some aspects of the HW).

Thing is, all these things that the One is doing right now were things the PS4 did right from the start. All the corrections just made the Xbox One a less powerful PS4, and the mindshare ship had already sailed. Unless you are a diehard Halo, Forza, Gears fan it's gonna be hard to choose Xbox when all your friends have PS4's already.
 

Massa

Member
It's not impossible, but it's just well... harder for new IPs to launch out-the-gate with sales so strong that it's very likely a strong factor in moving systems.

I mean, Titanfall and Destiny are two very strong examples. Titanfall sold close to 1 million in the NPDs at March. Can Horizon do that? Not impossible, but it'l be pretty hard.

That depends on how Sony's going to market it. Uncharted 4 is the first game of theirs that they're heavily marketing this gen, will Horizon be the same? It's showed up at all of their press conferences since being announced so I think the odds are pretty good.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Update.

Assuming XB1 is at ~130,000, which should not be that difference from the real numbers, this is the #3 worst month ever for XB1. (or #4, but i use 130K)

1) 77,000 (May 2014)
2) 115,000 (Apr 2014)
3) 130,000 (Jan 2016)
4) 131,000 (July 2014)
5) 139,000 (May 2015)
6) 141,000 (Jan 2014)
7) 150,000 (Jan 2015)
8) 160,000 (Aug 2014)
9) 168,000 (Oct 2014)
10) 187,000 (Apr 2015)
 
It's not impossible, but it's just well... harder for new IPs to launch out-the-gate with sales so strong that it's very likely a strong factor in moving systems.

I mean, Titanfall and Destiny are two very strong examples. Titanfall sold close to 1 million in the NPDs at March. Can Horizon do that? Not impossible, but it'l be pretty hard.

Sony will have to put there marketing muscle behind it .
We know when they ready they can do a good job .
I just hope it end up being another TLOU ( don't expect it to sell that big ) and not The Order sales wise.
They having a big WRPG would be really good in my book .
 
That depends on how Sony's going to market it. Uncharted 4 is the first game of theirs that they're heavily marketing this gen, will Horizon be the same? It's showed up at all of their press conferences since being announced so I think the odds are pretty good.

Sony will have to put there marketing muscle behind it .
We know when they ready they can do a good job .
I just hope it end up being another TLOU ( don't expect it to sell that big ) and not The Order sales wise.
They having a big WRPG would be really good in my book .

Exactly. Marketing will be critical.

That being said, even on the basic assumption that the game is good, (thus leading to good previews, and good press overall), it's still not easy to land a great marketing plan.

I mean, Titanfall had like the best marketing momentum ever. (with maybe the exception of Skyrim )

Game resonated RIDICULOUSLY well with the press, there were no preview of the game that wasn't basically hyperbolic salivation of the game.

MS/EA made big deals and events outta the beta. Titanfall was very early on positioned as the darling of the Xbox brand. Big marketing alignments, etc.

And because PS4's sales success was very clear out the gate vs XB1, MS, the hardcore Xbox fans and even the press put the flag on Titanfall as the flagbearer/rally point for XB1's chance at reversing its fortunes vs PS4.

Even the greatest marketing team in the world would struggle to replicate the same momentum with any game product in the market today, regardless of quality.
 

Javin98

Banned
Sony will have to put there marketing muscle behind it .
We know when they ready they can do a good job .
I just hope it end up being another TLOU ( don't expect it to sell that big ) and not The Order sales wise.
They having a big WRPG would be really good in my book .
TLOU was also universally acclaimed and regarded by many as the best game of the generation. Not that I think Guerrilla's previous games are bad, I love Killzone, in fact, but I don't think they could release a game that's as well received as TLOU.
 

EGM1966

Member
I think price cut will work. Xbox One did great in holidays against a super strong PS4 that had price cut and appealing bundles.

Xbox One is $349 since november 2014, this price doesn't work anymore. MS should cut to $299, even if Sony respond Xbox One at least will be more cheap than now.

Thinking further, I strongly believe that Xbox One needs a Slim model for create some momentum and I'm betting MS will launch this new model in 2016.
Gaining mmentum for MS is going to be very challenging I think. With right price/bundles they'll do okay for Black Friday and holidays but outside of that I expect XB1 to loose momentum as gap grows and more and more exclusives release on PS4.

MS have taught US market to wait for holidays for everything, deals and big games. Jan to September I believe is going to be a rough period for them price cuts/slim or not.

We'll see but I believe that's how trends are settling for them: grabbing as much as they can in a relatively few months and dipping badly vs competition outside those.
 
Underappreciated post, iunderstoodthereference.jpg.

No. It was not an under appreciated post. It was appreciated as much as it should have been, which is not at all.

The Xbox One has a slightly higher attach rate for packaged software. The Xbox One also appears to have a higher digital ARPU on DLC and a higher digital distribution share, on average, for software titles (at least those I've seen).

So the average Xbox One very likely generates more software and DLC revenues than the average PS4.

This is easily explained by the PS4s vastly larger installed base. The PS4 ecosystem is much more valuable as a whole because of that larger installed base but that doesn't make the per console average false or irrelevant.

But a whole bunch of people were saying a lot of very silly/ridiculous things in that thread and that meme is part of it,
 

gamz

Member
No. It was not an under appreciated post. It was appreciated as much as it should have been, which is not at all.

The Xbox One has a slightly higher attach rate for packaged software. The Xbox One also appears to have a higher digital ARPU on DLC and a higher digital distribution share, on average, for software titles (at least those I've seen).

So the average Xbox One very likely generates more software and DLC revenues than the average PS4.

This is easily explained by the PS4s vastly larger installed base. The PS4 ecosystem is much more valuable as a whole because of that larger installed base but that doesn't make the per console average false or irrelevant.

But a whole bunch of people were saying a lot of very silly/ridiculous things in that thread and that meme is part of it,

Ubisoft mention that also.

If Sony players spent as much as Microsoft’s consumers, we’d expect to see a revenue gap for Ubisoft between the two systems that was closer to 89 percent.

Instead, we can clearly see that Xbox One has the higher ARPU.

This makes sense from the standpoint that the PS4 is more popular overall, which means more frugal gamers have picked up the Sony system since that’s the one most people are going with when they can only afford a single system. But these are also the consumers who spend less, and that will — in turn — drag down the PS4’s attach rate.”
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Not that I disagree, but I think VR will be the wildcard out of the three. It has the potential to be a huge success, but it can also flop hard. I think the key factor in its success will be the pricing. If the headset is $299 like the rumours have it, then I think it will be quite successful and even move a sizable amount of PS4's.

It's going to cause PS4 sales to boost a bit whenever it launches in my opinion. The question is when (or if) we'll see a decent drop in sales after its launch.

Sony is going to have to make sure that they have no bad VR demos during their events this year. You wouldn't want that going viral -- especially considering the device isn't going to be cheap.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Woah, I've never seen this! :O I love stuff like that!

I don't know, I think it was bgamer who said Horion won't do too much. Sony said they want this IP to become something big in terms of games, merchandise, etc... so I think it can really hit if Sony manage it well enough.

I'm pumped for Horizon and I think it's going to do well in sales but I don't think it's going to give that much of a boost for PS4 sales (that was my point in my reply).
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Huh, I missed those.

Maybe I should stop abandoning sales threads so early.

Bloodborne should easily be over 3 million then, & eventually 4 million LTD.

How can be easy 3 million?

It sold 1 million the firsts 2 weeks, and has passed 2 million by end of September, which mean in 5 months after launch it sold "only" 1 million.

How can sold "easy" another million in 3 months? Ok, they are holidays months, that's true, but honestly, looking at NPD, PAL charts, and Media Create thread BloodBorne legs were always bad.

Not saying is impossible, but i highly doubt it sold 3 million, let alone say is "easy" over that.
 

Javin98

Banned
It's going to cause PS4 sales to boost a bit whenever it launches in my opinion. The question is when (or if) we'll see a decent drop in sales after its launch.

Sony is going to have to make sure that they have no bad VR demos during their events this year. You wouldn't want that going viral -- especially considering the device isn't going to be cheap.
Indeed, we'll see a boost when PSVR launches. The question is, how big the boost will be. Will it be a barely noticeable boost or a significant one? Also, as you said, will sales maintain the momentum or plummet? All of this mostly depends on one key factor: price. That's how I see it anyway. Well, not having an embarrassing showing is also vital, of course.
 
Ubisoft did not say anything about it. It was Venturebeat's desperate attempt at positive Xbox spin. They took numbers from Sony's announcement, EA's estimates, Ubisoft's financial report, threw them into a blender, and got 1.25.

Except that if the math is reasonable then it isn't spin at all.

Immediately referring to it as spin without considering if the math is fair or not is actually more spin than the article itself.
 
I'm pumped for Horizon and I think it's going to do well in sales but I don't think it's going to give that much of a boost for PS4 sales (that was my point in my reply).
I'd say that would fall into how Sony handles it as well. I think the potential is there for Horizon to perform superbly on a commercial level and boost PS4 hardware.
 

eerik9000

Member
Except that if the math is reasonable then it isn't spin at all.

Immediately referring to it as spin without considering if the math is fair or not is actually more spin than the article itself.

4 = 4 times One

Playstation 4 is four times better than Xbox One in every way. The math is correct and reasonable so it's not a spin.
 

jayu26

Member
Except that if the math is reasonable then it isn't spin at all.

Immediately referring to it as spin without considering if the math is fair or not is actually more spin than the article itself.
No self respecting statistician would makes conclusions like that from that data. There are just too many variables. We kept showing that in that thread, but best response to counter that was "but the arthimatic is right." that is not how statistics works.
 

Chobel

Member
Except that if the math is reasonable then it isn't spin at all.

Immediately referring to it as spin without considering if the math is fair or not is actually more spin than the article itself.

Here's some reasonable math:

XBO sells more per country (PS4 is released in way more countries)
XBO games sells more per average (PS4 has way more games)
 
Whatever. In the US, the Xone's physical sw tie ratio is higher than ps4. Verily slightly higher, but higher. Arpu and digital share also are most likely higher on the Xone, although precise calculations are impossible to do given proprietary nature of much of the data.

But don't take my word for it if you don't want to.

The funniest part is that any of the above being true says very little. All it says is that things are normal in that tie ratios fall as installed base increases. It says nothing about the people buying those consoles, or anything really.

But whatever, fight on, Warriors.

Here's some reasonable math:

XBO sells more per country (PS4 is released in way more countries)
XBO games sells more per average (PS4 has way more games)

Lol.
 
I'm pumped for Horizon and I think it's going to do well in sales but I don't think it's going to give that much of a boost for PS4 sales (that was my point in my reply).
I expect big things from horizon, as long as the game gets not too bad reviews / is not utter shit.
It had one of the coolest claims in recent history.
Robot Dinosaurs.
What's not to love here? It will basically be: but have you SEEN horizon?
 

Conduit

Banned
So the average Xbox One very likely generates more software and DLC revenues than the average PS4

Hmmm..how so. Look at the Life's Strange and RE Origins. Split is enormous in PS4 favor. PS4 owner spent money on other titles which on Xbone are meaningless, JRPG's for example. And also PS4 has almost the twice as many games than Xbone so sales are spread.
 
I am pretty sure Horizon will be the big holiday game for Sony as long as it doesn't get delayed.
Yeah, that is what I am expecting as well. I would not be surprised by it being another title moved to spring like Infamous, Bloodborne and Uncharted 4 though.

I expect big things from horizon, as long as the game gets not too bad reviews / is not utter shit.
It had one of the coolest claims in recent history.
Robot Dinosaurs.
What's not to love here? It will basically be: but have you SEEN horizon?
Exactly. Who doesn't like robot dinosaurs? It basically sells itself. Sony just has to put the marketing muscle behind it.
 

Shin-Ra

Junior Member
But MS are doing everything right now, while Sony have made screw-ups (but nowhere on the same scale as the Launch of Hubris) and it's still tanking now. I guess any other console than Sony's, that doesn't get out of the gate fastest, will never win the generation.
Microsoft's doing everything right for Windows (not even sure about that) or Xbox as a console platform?
 
Hmmm..how so. Look at the Life's Strange and RE Origins. Split is enormous in PS4 favor. PS4 owner spent money on other titles which on Xbone are meaningless, JRPG's for example. And also PS4 has almost the twice as many games than Xbone.

You can't extrapolate from single title or genre to total market.

Just saying what I've seen in the sales information I have access to. I'm not going to disclose any of that, so if you don't believe it that's fine. I get the doubt.
 

Kyoufu

Member
You can't extrapolate from single title or genre to total market.

Just saying what I've seen in the sales information I have access to. I'm not going to disclose any of that, so if you don't believe it that's fine. I get the doubt.

So then what genres are we talking here? I could see it being true for first person shooters which Xbox owners have always embraced, but what else?
 

Massa

Member
Except that if the math is reasonable then it isn't spin at all.

Immediately referring to it as spin without considering if the math is fair or not is actually more spin than the article itself.

What? This couldn't be further from the truth. In fact that's exactly what a spin is: finding the irrelevant math to paint a different picture than what really matters in reality. Like Microsoft made everyone believe Halo 5 was a smashing success using some irrelevant numbers with that most spinful PR statement we've seen in years.

If you have $60 and I have zero we average $30 each. But you get to buy a game and I don't. Averages on their own are worthless, that's the first thing you learn when you learn statistics.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
What? This couldn't be further from the truth. In fact that's exactly what a spin is: finding the irrelevant math to paint a different picture than what really matters in reality. Like Microsoft made everyone believe Halo 5 was a smashing success using some irrelevant numbers with that most spinful PR statement we've seen in years.

If you have $60 and I have zero we average $30 each. But you get to buy a game and I don't. Averages on their own are worthless, that's the first thing you learn when you learn statistics.

This.
 
What? This couldn't be further from the truth. In fact that's exactly what a spin is: finding the irrelevant math to paint a different picture than what really matters in reality. Like Microsoft made everyone believe Halo 5 was a smashing success using some irrelevant numbers with that most spinful PR statement we've seen in years.

If you have $60 and I have zero we average $30 each. But you get to buy a game and I don't. Averages on their own are worthless, that's the first thing you learn when you learn statistics.

Look, if you're saying the article itself is shit, then fine, whatever. I don't care. Call it shit.

But an average being higher on one box over the other is just math. An average isn't worthless, it isn't worth a lot. It just is. Data doesn't have feelings.

The whole issue with that thread is a bunch of people projected feelings onto that average. Who gives a shit about the average? No one should, unless you're in the line of work of forecasting revenues by platform to estimate royalty payments or reserves or something.

But people, for some reason, took offense to the idea that the trailing box could sell slightly more software per console.

I mean, holy shit, the trailing box leading in average sales per box is a completely expected result. But for some reason, this has caused people anguish.

Look, would it be an issue if some CFO got on an earnings call and said "Our ARPUs are trending slightly positive. The Xbox One user base, due to its much smaller installed base, has a more core gamer psychographic than the more mass market PS4. Therefore, while we assume that more core base on the Xbox One to generate slightly higher ARPU, we expect the much more mass market PS4 to generate the majority of revenues."?

No. Of course it wouldn't. It's pretty common sense, actually.

And you know what? It doesn't matter. If that article is spin it's a very piss poor job of it because those numbers won't move the street, they won't move retailers, they won't move customers so who gives a shit. No one should.

Regardless, it doesn't make the average being higher on the trailing box false. It's just as true, and just as meaningless, as before the article was written.


Okay, so what? What is it about the article that you find offputting? The data itself, or the assumed intent of the article? Those are two different things. I'm addressing one of those two things, I don't care about the other.
 

Elandyll

Banned
Except that if the math is reasonable then it isn't spin at all.

Immediately referring to it as spin without considering if the math is fair or not is actually more spin than the article itself.

The problem I and many have about the Venturebeat article is that in this case making a ratio without taking in consideration the granularity of the consumers in said markets makes for a very flawed comparison.

Let me explain what I mean in case it isn't clear.

The Venturebeat article literally says "Ubisoft values Xbox players more than PS4 players", and has a ratio of how much is spent on Ubisoft games divided by number of sold machines.

We all know that a console's population is roughly made of 3 types of buyers: early adopters (Hardcore gamers), dedicated gamers, and causal gamers.
The software attachment ratio naturally grows down as you go further down towards the casual buyers.

Hence, the Venturebeat article by saying that Xbox consumers spends more overall is offset by both the fact that PS4 has likely tapped into the casual larger market earlier and in more numbers, and offset by basic math.

Basically, the more sales you have, the more diluted the attachment rate is.

IF both consoles can appeal to say 5 million hardcore and 10 million dedicated (made up numbers for illustration) and the rest is casuals then the console that is closest to 15m sales will have the highest ratio by far. Jeff was implying that Xbox One gets more Hardcore/ Dedicated over time, and I do not believe he has the data to prove that (it's a holdover assumption from the 360 days imo).

All this to say that unless you know the exact proportion of gaming buyer types per machine, it is impossible to say that overall Xbox has the highest ratio of hardcore gamer that will buy the most, because to make that estimation would require to have both machines having sold near the same amount.
In the US alone, the PS4 has outsold its rival by 1.4m units at this point, and it's far worse WW (Ubi numbers being WW), the sales ratio difference being practically 2:1 (an 18m+/- difference).
 

Intrigue

Banned
Whatever. In the US, the Xone's physical sw tie ratio is higher than ps4. Verily slightly higher, but higher. Arpu and digital share also are most likely higher on the Xone, although precise calculations are impossible to do given proprietary nature of much of the data.

But don't take my word for it if you don't want to.

The funniest part is that any of the above being true says very little. All it says is that things are normal in that tie ratios fall as installed base increases. It says nothing about the people buying those consoles, or anything really.

But whatever, fight on, Warriors.



Lol.

Lets says PS4 is at 10mil xbox at 9mil

PS sells game per console so 1:1 ratio but they sold 10 mil copies

xbox sold 9.9mil copies so they ratio is 1:1.1

For the software company its better ratio but more money made from PS4 sales


If you said more software is sold for xbox1 vs ps4 then we would have a different discussion.
 
Lets says PS4 is at 10mil xbox at 9mil

PS sells game per console so 1:1 ratio but they sold 10 mil copies

xbox sold 9.9mil copies so they ratio is 1:1.1

For the software company its better ratio but more money made from PS4 sales


If you said more software is sold for xbox1 vs ps4 then we would have a different discussion.
Sweden 12 points!

We should not bite out of reflex as soon as there is a statistic in favor of one console or another.
 

onQ123

Member
This is just way to simplistic and ignores a multitude of factors of why a console is a runaway success compared to its competition. Seriously, Tekken Tag Tournament? The game that lead what most people consider the weakest launch lineup in history? That made the PS2 the go to console compared to Xbox that had Halo? Where it's sequel broke entertainment records when it was released? Or was it that fact that MS had no prior existing userbase and mindshare compared to its main competition that had the most popular console in the prior generation?

Crash Bandicoot made the PS1 separate from it's competition, the one that had freakin' Mario 64 at launch? Or was it Nintendo's decision to go with the expensive and outdated media format along with strict licensing requirements that turned off developers and made the overall library quite scarce with several droughts throughout its lifespan.



Name one person outside of gaming forums that care who was a publisher of any specific game title. There are soooo many factors on why a console would dominate it's competion that exclusives are overall a minor and quite significant factor in the grand scheme of things. It's almost like you looked on wikipedia for total consoles sales and said to yourself "Wow, the PS2 dominated! It must have been that awesome launch lineup and that exclusive Tekken Tag Tournament that made the difference!"

What does Mario 64 on N64 & Halo on Xbox have to do with people buying PlayStation for the games I mentioned? it's still the same point you can remember people buying Xbox for Halo & N64 for Mario 64 & Mario Kart 64 & so on. these games set the consoles apart from the completion & it's easy to remember that. the competition having a different game that people bought don't change that.

And what does people knowing who published a game have to do with anything that we are talking about?
 
I dont see how Xbox one having a higher software tie ratio is somehow a contraversal statement. Xbox has always been the "hardcore" brand and attracts more of base that buys multiple editions of software, even in just the same franchise. Not to mention that at launch, Microsoft did not employ the Next gen tax on phisycal games.

I think in general in in philosophy, especially under spencer, Microsoft nurtures the hardcore online gamer far more than Sony who would rather cast a wide net with releases and has something for everyone. Nintendo is a mix of the two, trying make their software have universal appeal, but nuture a very closed "Nintendo" approach to software and game design

Its no surprise to me that even if sales were equal, Xbox would have a higher APU, while Sony would be able to boast that they sell a much wider variety of software. Nintendo would have an insane attact rate, but only for first party software.
 

Chobel

Member
The best part of these discussions is you can see the true colors of people, they want to be objective but they are very very subjective.

OK we don't need to go that route, we can have discussions about this without accusing Queso of being biased.

And just like average, having the best software sales isn't the end of all.
 
The problem I and many have about the Venturebeat article is that in this case making a ratio without taking in consideration the granularity of the consumers in said markets makes for a very flawed comparison.

Indeed.

Jeff was implying that Xbox One gets more Hardcore/ Dedicated over time, and I do not believe he has the data to prove that

Of course there's no data to prove that, because that is quite a silly assertion.

All this to say that unless you know the exact proportion of gaming buyer types per machine, it is impossible to say that overall Xbox has the highest ratio of hardcore gamer that will buy the most

Agreed. So it's the unsupported conclusions in the article that are the problem. I get that.

For the software company its better ratio but more money made from PS4 sales

Right? So how's that at all different from what I said (hint: it's not).

OK we don't need to go that route, we can have discussions about this without accusing Queso of being biased.

That's okay Chobel, this is the month I'm MS biased. Next month I'll be Sony biased like I was back in November. In December I was Nintendo biased because I made a joke about why people would want to play anything other than Yoshi's Wooly World.
 

Intrigue

Banned
OK we don't need to go that route, we can have discussions about this without accusing Queso of being biased.

And just like average, having the best software sales isn't the end of all.

Who said it was about queso? plenty to go around.

Look at last 30 pages of peoples spin about how ones company failure is the only reason another company is ahead.
 

Intrigue

Banned
That's okay Chobel, this is the month I'm MS biased. Next month I'll be Sony biased like I was back in November. In December I was Nintendo biased because I made a joke about why people would want to play anything other than Yoshi's Wooly World.

Don't feel special, and don't be so quick to crawl up on the cross.
 
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