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Kotaku: XB1 Slim 2016, More Powerful XB1 Scorpio/VR 2017, iterative boxes from now on

Golgo 13

The Man With The Golden Dong
Aren't the requirements high for it though?

Unless Scorpio will also benefit from the power of the cloud.
Yes, way, way higher than the standard Xbox One at least, especially on the CPU side. Which leads me to believe they're gonna come out of the gate swinging, power-wise, if Occulus support is true.
 

Dabanton

Member
Frankly, I think Sony and MS are going to have a hell of a time explaining this and not confusing somebody. Changing the 30 year-old ingrained notion of a console isn't going to be easy.

Well people have gone though the same thing with phones and tablets. I'm going to guess that it's not going to be that hard.
 
The way I see it MS are potentially soft exiting from the console market and progressively consolidating Xbox onto PC, but they were going to give it another shot with Xbox Two. However the people at Sony are smart and blindsided MS by switching to an iterative model. Neo coming out this year would pretty much lock in their dominance. With the 60m+ userbase the Playstation will be the lead platform for the big 3rd party games and Sony can easily get the marketing/DLC exclusive on any 3rd party game they want from here on out. MS first party is a disaster so I don't see any space for them to mount a comeback. Scorpio next year will be too late. The PS2 demolished the Xbox/GC despite both being significantly more powerful. An iterative PS would also have the power advantage at times in addition to the game library/momentum.
The bolded is my key takeaway as well. Shifting to a PC-centric service for the Xbox brand is a matter of survival for Microsoft at this point.
 

gohepcat

Banned
These are not fucking phones!

These are consoles that play $60+ software not 1.99-4.99 app/games.

And we are dealing with things like resolution, frame rates being different by possible large margins.

And if lets say down the road a major AAA game runs like ass on older PS4, than Neo you will have a fucking wild fire that could spread, once developers want to work on the newer hardware down the line.

Just because Sony's mandate now says you have to target PS4, doesn't mean it wont change in the future which has happened to an extent with different versions of games.




They are a set of specs.

They are a representation of 400 dollars worth of graphics power from the year 2013.

PS4 Neo is going to be where graphics and computing power is in 2016
Scorpio is going to be where graphics are computing power is in 2017

They are x86 based machines, and we are now finally reached the logical place where we are going to have backwards compatibility in perpetuity.
 

AmyS

Member
I wonder if either the PSNEO or XBScorpio will have HBM2. But based off Polaris, they'll probably be GDDR5X at best.

HBM2?

PSNeo, no way -- XBScorpio, likely (with Vega).

PS5, for sure (if not, then whatever AMD's "Nextgen Memory" is).

0NOSwHH.jpg
 

thuway

Member
The bolded is my key takeaway as well. Shifting to a PC-centric service for the Xbox brand is a matter of survival for Microsoft at this point.

I don't know if it's survival, but I like their take on "console" gaming. They are essentially creating a "Nexus" device with Scorpio that developers can create a baseline for fidelity, performance, and expectation.

The PC essentially becomes an Xbox Certified Box with scalability as far as your money takes you.
 
The bolded is my key takeaway as well. Shifting to a PC-centric service for the Xbox brand is a matter of survival for Microsoft at this point.

Windows 10 store adoption is crucial to MS at this point. Their 1-year free upgrade to Windows 10 was all apart of the plan. I don't think MS is going to stop making Xbox devices anytime soon though. Some people still prefer their physical media.

The Xbox console is going to become PC-lite, basically a PC locked down to the Windows 10 store with the Universal Windows Apps and Xbox games. It will be like the Google and Apple ecosystem. It would be funny for MS to allow side-loading of apps onto Xbox.
 

thuway

Member
HBM2?

PSNeo, no way -- XBScorpio, likely (with Vega).

PS5, for sure (if not, then whatever AMD's 'Nextgen' memory is).

0NOSwHH.jpg

Amy I don't think Microsoft will put in HBM 2 next year. The tech will still be immature with foundries still working out kinks. I'd imagine a likelier scenario of 4X Xbox One's memory bandwith aka 68X4 = 280 GB/S in Scorpio.
 
I don't know if it's survival, but I like their take on "console" gaming. They are essentially creating a "Nexus" device with Scorpio that developers can create a baseline for fidelity, performance, and expectation.

The PC essentially becomes an Xbox Certified Box with scalability as far as your money takes you.

Yes. Or in other words, "Xbox" becomes a platform at that point. Which I think can potentially be a great thing, especially as far as hardware innovation is concerned.

The challenge will be in tying everything together seamlessly between all potential configurations, and not confusing the consumer on messaging (I feel like this will be the biggest challenge... Naming conventions and announcements need to be well done here)
 

Hoo-doo

Banned
Yes, way, way higher than the standard Xbox One at least, especially on the CPU side. Which leads me to believe they're gonna come out of the gate swinging, power-wise, if Occulus support is true.

Why are people thinking that 'oculus support' means that it would be equivalent to the power of a PC running Oculus Software, as in a 970ti / Intel i5-4590 combo?

In essence, Oculus is just a head-mounted display with tracking. They could be targeting completely different performance from the new Xbox console with console specific VR software. I mean, the PS4 has shown itself to be quite capable of VR already with PSVR. The Oculus headset could just as easily scale down using console hardware if they wanted to.
 
And the winner is AMD?

Yep. Nvidia so desperately wants a piece of the custom soc market.

XBScorpio likely to be Vega based? Great if true, should be interesting. But if Polaris based then I doubt it. :/


I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm saying it won't happen. I mean why stop there if we're playing the money is no object game and pie in the sky type dreams can come true, why not a dual Vega GPU with HBM2 and Zen CPU.


Edit: 2017 does change the price of these off the shelf type products though so I won't completely rule it out.
 

Juanfp

Member
I am still not convice on this new consoles. MS and Sony need to explain this well and carefully. I really want to hear what they will say at E3
 
The way I see it MS are potentially soft exiting from the console market and progressively consolidating Xbox onto PC, but they were going to give it another shot with Xbox Two. However the people at Sony are smart and blindsided MS by switching to an iterative model. Neo coming out this year would pretty much lock in their dominance. With the 60m+ userbase the Playstation will be the lead platform for the big 3rd party games and Sony can easily get the marketing/DLC exclusive on any 3rd party game they want from here on out. MS first party is a disaster so I don't see any space for them to mount a comeback. Scorpio next year will be too late. The PS2 demolished the Xbox/GC despite both being significantly more powerful. An iterative PS would also have the power advantage at times in addition to the game library/momentum.

This is all a story with no real basis.
Iterative has been planned from the get go.
Again, by all console manufacturers.

And money talks for the rest of it. Wherever the money may be flowing from is where the marketing and dlc deals go.

And last but not least, first party means close to nothing nowadays. Third party games are, for the most part, putting asses in the seats.
 

AmyS

Member
Amy I don't think Microsoft will put in HBM 2 next year. The tech will still be immature with foundries still working out kinks. I'd imagine a likelier scenario of 4X Xbox One's memory bandwith aka 68X4 = 280 GB/S in Scorpio.

Yeah, I guess that makes sense.

Well, probably no HBM2 until "Xbox Tarantula" or whatever, and PlayStation 5.
 

Kaako

Felium Defensor
I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm saying it won't happen. I mean why stop there if we're playing the money is no object game and pie in the sky type dreams can come true, why not a dual Vega GPU with HBM2 and Zen CPU.

Edit: 2017 does change the price of these off the shelf type products though so I won't completely rule it out.
I was about to say, for 2017 that's really not "pie in the sky type dreams" lol. And if Polygon is anywhere close to the ballpark of a 6TF console, then Vega is definitely a possibility.
 

Swass

Member
Well, I was considering an XB1 Slim, but if the Scorpio is following just behind it... They've kind of just undercut the market for that new revision, no?

My prediction (that people will dislike): If the Scorpio is considerably more powerful than PS4k, it will outsell it, despite Sony's momentum. These things are multiplat machines at this stage. Which one runs Fifa/CoD/Overwatch/etc better? That and price are all people care about.

Microsoft is right to try and reset the power struggle. Hopefully they produce a good machine. Hopefully the fucking thing has folders - that might be the one thing that drives me away from Playstation.

6 months time is hardly enough time for technology to evolve to the point where a console priced the same as it's competitor is going to substantially outperform it.

I also think another hurdle Microsoft is going to encounter is changing the architecture likely means there won't be forward compatibility, so likely there will be 2 copies of Xbox games sitting on store shelves, Xbox One and Xbox Two versions. Also all Xbox One games will likely need patches to run on the new architecture unless they build in a native mode to run them. Seems a lot more messy than the Sony plans that's for sure.
 
In addition, people familiar with Microsoft’s plans have told Keza that the company is moving toward an iterative approach for their consoles, not unlike Apple.
This is the sentiment I've read the most in terms of the business and financial side of the hardware industry.

They look at smartphones selling new versions $400 phones every year and then back to their own 6-8 year lifecycles, and feel rather jealous and wonder why they cannot have the same annual iterative upgrade incentives.

Of course it brings its own risk, especially as the difference between each iteration (especially to consumers) changes less and less. Computers, laptops, smartphones have all begun to commoditize, and consoles could face the same risk if the improvements per iteration begin to have diminishing returns (which is both objective based on specs but also somewhat subjective because consumers become desensitized slowly to too regular iterations). The 'wow' of each new product could end up facing the same problems that laptops or smartphones do, if they try release iterations annually. So, while it'll likely help revenues a lot in the short run, it does carry longer term risks, too, if they release improvements too often.
 

Griss

Member
There is no way it will be considerably more powerful with a similar price as the neo with at most a year difference in release dates.

Not in europe, that's for sure.

And honestly, I don't think power is even close to as important as we all act like it is.
The differences between PS4 and XB1 are rather minimal but one of the consoles simply has all the mindshare behind it ever since reveal, and the word of mouth spread like wildfire since then. It's the console to get.

And I think that is unlikely to change with a new iteration. Regardless of power.
More likely is that it's in the exact same ballpark as the PS4K, maybe a tad more powerful, but in the exact same pricerange.

Rumours say it could be considerably more powerful. I don't know what the point is for MS if it's not. They can't be 'just equal' to the winning team and hope to sway people over. They need to blow the PS4k out of the water and make Xbox the place to play multiplats again. If that means it becomes the 'premium' machine, and is a little more expensive, then so be it. Right now they have basically no USP at all, and with their exclusives now being on PC there's even less of a USP.

And yes, they'll always have an uphill fight in Europe, sure.
 

Kaako

Felium Defensor
Gies was the secret sauce guy with the Xbox one.
That fool tried to turn INTO the secret sauce by the end lmao. It was a sight to behold seeing them feverish posts before the XB1 launch to the shitstorm that washed over afterwards.
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
$400 box for Scorpio and they'll have attention. Any higher and they'll have to subsidize the hell out of it past the first 3 months.
 
Neo could be 2016 and still not be at E3 IMO

It probably won't be. An announcement there for a system months away would tank sales.

Gives people less of a reason to buy the Xbox consoles. Despite what some people say, exclusives still matter.

I mean they matter to some extent, but if the sales of most MS (and Sony really) exclusives are to go by, they don't matter nearly as much as they used to.

You think the people who buy Xboxes mainly to play CoD, Madden, and Assassin's Creed will all go jumping to PC? And what about their friends? You think people will leave their friends?

Let's face it, most console players don't even consider PC gaming an option.
 
6TF is what I predicted a while back. It's about the max they can do for a holiday 2017 system at a reasonable price.

It wont have anything to do with the XB1 though IMO. They will drop that like a bad smell and go full steam ahead with the next gen message.
 

etta

my hard graphic balls
Polygon is reporting that the performance target for Scorpio is 6 teraflops. What's ps4 neo supposed to be?

http://www.polygon.com/2016/5/25/11774294/xbox-one-slim-one-two-scorpio

Yeah, just read this. Xbox One Slim in August and Scorpio in late 2017. They also say MS was expecting Neo, but in 2017 and not 2016. That lines up with Gopher's posts here. He indicated that MS was caught off guard.

Interesting how they said they decided to announce Scorpio this year instead of the next so as to have something against the PS4 Neo.

Originally, Microsoft had no plans to announce Scorpio in 2016, preferring to wait until next year, possibly at their own event prior to E3. This would be in keeping with the company's existing precedent for new hardware launches. This was timed to combat expected plans by Sony to announce and launch the Neo in 2017. However, after GDC, evidence industry-wide has indicated that Sony's timetable for the Neo either has accelerated or was always intended for this Fall. Because of this and other factors, Microsoft is feeling pressure to announce both its new, smaller Xbox One console and the upgraded Scorpio — colloquially referred to internally as Xbox One-Two — at this year's E3, or a last-minute event just prior to the LA convention.

Xbox One Two??
Based ekim.
 

op_ivy

Fallen Xbot (cannot continue gaining levels in this class)
2017 tho. :(

i'd imagine it'll be earlier in the year to better compete with neo. i'd be surprised if its late 2017. in other words, MS will make sure we know about it to garnish mindshare during the 2016 neo launch. we definitely could see something at e3.

though i guess the rumor directly states that they just shared this with devs a week ago... so perhaps not shown/discussed at e3... but 2016! maybe.

EDIT: see above

EDIT 2: i see polygon is saying late 2017
 
Ease of use is a humongous factor whether you want to admit it or not. The overwhelming majority people do not "get" computers the way the enthusiast crowd on GAF does. Try working an IT job for a week and it will become apparent immediately. The number of people out there that don't even understand what an internet browser is would probably astonish you since you evidently don't leave your echo chamber.

Millions upon millions of people just want something they simply plug into their TV and lets them play games and watch Netflix. There isn't anything silly or irrational about that.

This. The real reason why consoles will remain appealing to the mass market, iterative model or not.

There are of course several other reasons why people choose consoles over pc's but ease of use and simplicity is perhaps the primary one.

For me, games on physical media which I can sell, exchange or share with other people is the biggie. Oh, and exclusives of course. Can't remain a gamer and be ok missing out on Sony and Nintendo exclusives personally. Pc exclusives just don't have the same appeal to me. And those that do, eventually appear on console anyway. Divinity original sin being a recent example.
 
$400 box for Scorpio and they'll have attention. Any higher and they'll have to subsidize the hell out of it past the first 3 months.

I'm thinking that $500 might be the base price especially with a cheaper XB1 Slim model available to play the same games. $400 would be a dream though with that amount of power. I'm still curious about the CPU.
 
6 months time is hardly enough time for technology to evolve to the point where a console priced the same as it's competitor is going to substantially outperform it.

I also think another hurdle Microsoft is going to encounter is changing the architecture likely means there won't be forward compatibility, so likely there will be 2 copies of Xbox games sitting on store shelves, Xbox One and Xbox Two versions. Also all Xbox One games will likely need patches to run on the new architecture unless they build in a native mode to run them. Seems a lot more messy than the Sony plans that's for sure.

It's going to work the same way as Sony and Nintendo's.
Architectures can change, bringing new cert processes and game profiles. But they're on the same API.
 

jeffc919

Member
I wonder where they will draw the line as far as requiring that new games be able to run on the older hardware? So if we assume that for the next few years everything will run on new Neo/Scorpio hardware as well as the original PS4/xbone hardware, what happens in 2019/2020 if/when the next iteration of more powerful hardware releases? Will they still require that new games in 2021 run on the 2013 consoles? Or will it be at the developer's discretion how many iterations back they must support? It could a sort of rolling system of current hardware plus the last 1 or 2 revisions, or they could draw hard lines at certain points that designate a new "generation". Obviously there has to be a line drawn somewhere and it needs to be done in a way that is relatively transparent to the casual / low information consumer. Maybe by then the industry will have gone fully digital and the software will just prevent purchasing/downloading a game that is incompatible and then it can really vary from title to title. I think that's how the mobile marketplace usually works. I can see some developers wanting to maximize sales by supporting as large an install base as possible, however others may want to innovate in ways that precludes supporting the older platforms.
 

Upinsmoke

Member
i'd imagine it'll be earlier in the year to better compete with neo. i'd be surprised if its late 2017. in other words, MS will make sure we know about it to garnish mindshare during the 2016 neo launch. we definitely could see something at e3.

though i guess the rumor directly states that they just shared this with devs a week ago... so perhaps not shown/discussed at e3... but 2016! maybe.

I'd be very surprised If they announced this more powerful xbox at E3 this year. Xbox One sales would tank as would software. Plus who in there right mind would buy a slim x1 and another xbox a year later.
 
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