I'm simply responding to the notion that 40 million is an unrealistic number, and that Nintendo isn't likely to have a successful platform again, which is a pessimistic view that doesn't accurately account for Nintendo's history.
Nintendo only has an exceptional history of success in the portable market. In the console market, they have been on a downward trend with the Wii being the sole exception. The NES and SNES were both successful, with the SNES selling less than the NES worldwide. The N64 was a failure all things considered, it came in 2nd place in the US, and 3rd place in Japan, and sold less than the SNES during an era where console ownership exploded. The GCN was in third place overall, and was considered a failure and sold less than the N64. The Wii U, another major failure that sold less than it's predecessor as well. The Wii did well, but had no legs on the hardware side, and did not have the software legs that the NES or SNES did, in fact first party wise there was a software drought the the end of the system's life even before it's successor was announced.
As far as portables, it's somewhat the opposite. It had one major failure, the Virtual Boy, but the GB sold gangbusters, the GBC sold less, but did very well. The GBA did great numbers, and the DS was the most successful system in the history of Nintendo. The 3DS is successful, but it will sell roughly half of what the DS did by the end of its life. The portable market as a whole is roughly 1/3 of what it was during the DS/PSP era.
So the only way the Switch succeeds is to sell to it's handheld market. The problem is that the price is just too damn high for that market. Will parents buy a Swtich for their kids just to play an updated Pokemon when the system is $299? The portable market, especially in the US is extremely price sensitive. The 3DS had to slash it's price within 4 months at $249, and the Vita never recovered from launching at that price, (though many considered that price a great value for the tech). I have trouble seeing the switch even approaching 3DS numbers launching at $299. The sweet spot for early portable pricing seems to be $199.
Of course the Switch is also a home console, or is being marketed that way. There the pricing isn't a whole lot better, as one can get a more powerful system with a pack in for less money. The Wii U tried a similar price during its launch and was killed by the 360 and PS3 which were cheaper, roughly as powerful, and had better libraries with packed in games.
I just don't see a way forward for Nintendo at their current price and software lineup. So yeah, 40 million is unrealistic without some big changes.
