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[butman]

The GOAT, will never be topped.

Can you actually play comfortably Monster Hunter and Xenoblade with this screen size?

 

[ckaneo]

Sounds kinda low, especially considering there should be a New Switch SKU by then. Also Splatoon 3. And Pocket Monsters.

40 Million is low?

The Wii U just did 13 mill...

 

[onemanasylum]

That was PS4 they predicted for 100 million by 2020

They predicted 100 mill for x1 too at some point.

 

[cyberheater]

Its a game console. That turns into a handheld. My parents even understand the concept, you're trying too hard and failing at it.

Is this how it's going to be for the entire Switch life cycle when if you argue from the point of view of being a handheld Nintendo fans say it's a home console and if you argue from a home console point of view they say it's a handheld.

Perpetually moving goal posts.

 

[RPGam3r]

Is this how it's going to be for the entire Switch life cycle when if you argue from the point of view of being a handheld Nintendo fans say it's a home console and if you argue from a home console point of view they say it's a handheld.

Perpetually moving goal posts.

It is both by design and how it is marketed.

 

[StereoVsn]

Sure, but it took a complete reversal of policies and philosophy and massive price cuts to get there. I'd say the views for that video pretty accurately reflect how much interest there was in the Xbox One leading up to release and immediately thereafter. The distinction between it and the Wii U in sales may say a lot about how the two companies reacted differently to their systems' failure to launch, but it doesn't say much of anything with respect to prelaunch interest.

I think it will take price cuts and rehaul of their OS and online policies to get Switch up to that mark as well. It's not going to sell 26 mil units at $300 and up with sub-optimal online services without expected apps and browser and it will require a yearly fee.

 

[Dark Cloud]

They predicted 100 mill for x1 too at some point.

I guess they didn't realize traditional gaming has shrunken at the time.

 

[Crayon]

Is this how it's going to be for the entire Switch life cycle when if you argue from the point of view of being a handheld Nintendo fans say it's a home console and if you argue from a home console point of view they say it's a handheld.

Perpetually moving goal posts.

No. It's just that you can Switch the goalposts whenever you want.

Pretty convenient!

 

[Saucycarpdog]

Is this how it's going to be for the entire Switch life cycle when if you argue from the point of view of being a handheld Nintendo fans say it's a home console and if you argue from a home console point of view they say it's a handheld.

Perpetually moving goal posts.

Reminds me how Destiny is and isn't a MMO whenever it's convenient.

It's a pain in the ass to argue with.

 

[EventHorizon]

Things look to be going in the wrong direction for Nintendo.

 

[cyberheater]

No. It's just that you can Switch the goalposts whenever you want.

Pretty convenient!

I see what you did there

 

[Dark Cloud]

Is this how it's going to be for the entire Switch life cycle when if you argue from the point of view of being a handheld Nintendo fans say it's a home console and if you argue from a home console point of view they say it's a handheld.

Perpetually moving goal posts.

You and anybody who hates Nintendo will be moving goalposts all around. Well...it's already happening.

 

[Karish]

They pull these numbers out of their ass at this stage

 

[TS-08]

I think it will take price cuts and rehaul of their OS and online policies to get Switch up to that mark as well. It's not going to sell 26 mil units at $300 and up with sub-optimal online services without expected apps and browser and it will require a yearly fee.

I think if it hits $249 with a game packed in by next year and some of the expected apps like Netflix are added it has a pretty good shot of reaching that number. I don't think it needs to do anything as drastic as Microsoft did to the One.

 

[DonShula]

I believe him yo. I don't know why but I do.

GAF is an echo chamber. I'd factor GAF reaction very, very lightly here. There's also the inevitability that sometime in 2018, the Switch will become Nintendo's new handheld. New SKU or not (dockless bundle, better battery), it will count. You have the aforementioned Pokémon coming home to roost and printing money. You also have its portability working for it in Japan, which should drive Japanese development, which in turn should round out the software library to 3DS-type variety and quantity. The use cases and target audiences are very clear here, which were not the case with the Wii U.

I see a ton of upside and reason to believe Switch will hit that number in 2020.

 

[javadoze]

Sounds kinda low, especially considering there should be a New Switch SKU by then. Also Splatoon 3. And Pocket Monsters.

WiiU: 13.36M

GC: 21.74M

N64: 32.93M

I'd hardly call a 40M estimate low. (Then again, that's if you think about the Switch as a home console moreso than as a handheld.)

 

[Wandering Robot]

Maybe. It'd be good for Nintendo, but I suspect they won't get 10mil/year without some changes to their policies.

 

[kruis]

You were one of the parents who bought a cheap 2DS last year with Pokemon Stars Moon for your kids. Switch is actually easier for smaller kids to use than a 3DS, due to the joycons and stand. I would also not underestimate the two controllers that are suitable for kids - for games like Splatoon2, MK8 Deluxe, Super Bombermam, Snipperclips, Skylanders, Fast RMX, LEGO City Undercover, Puyo Puyo Tetris, Sonic Mania, Shovel Knight etc the device and control scheme is a much better value than 3DS at launch.
Lets also not forget the evergreen kid title Minecraft is coming to the Switch this year and will never launch on 3DS/2DS
3DS at launch was a far worse value than Switch at launch for parents - especially without worrying about whether 3D is actually good for young kids

Its no surprise that Parental Controls video is in the top 5 most watched videos in several Nintendo channels.

You have no idea how many normal parents get acute sticker shock when they enter the Nintendo section of a store.All the parents I knew who had a DS bought one because it was so easy to download "free" games. All of them complained about the price of software and how quickly their kids got bored with pricey original games.The costs of games was the number one reason they liked hacked Nintendo handhelds then and smartphones now.

Most parents today will give their children a smartphone on which they can play crappy free-to-play games the whole day through. A $300 Nintendo Switch with $60 games is a very expensive luxury that most kids will have to do without.

 

[Ponn]

I think all of their sales hinge on if they do a Badge Arcade for Switch. Oh god I hope my badges transfer over, that would drive me insane.

 

[Crayon]

It looks like the portable/console concept has managed to destroy our minds, if nothing else.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

40 Million is low?

The Wii U just did 13 mill...

It will really depend on:

-How much of the 3DS/Vita market they can get on board as the only portable option as 3DS support dries up.

-How many lapsed Nintendo fans that skipped the Wii U and/or 3DS they can get back on board.

-How many PS4/X1/PC gamers they can convince that the Switch is an ideal complementary console to whatever they have.

Even as skeptical as I am, I see this selling in the 40-50 million range when all is said and done, after price drops, maybe hardware revisions (portable only/console only versions down the road perhaps). 40 million by 2020 is pretty optimistic though.

 

[Davilmar]

Here's the thing I don't understand about people speculating on a "console-only" or "portable-only" version of the Nintendo Switch. Isn't the hybrid design the entire point of the console, so wouldn't releasing two separate SKUs work against the entire console itself? Everything from the battery life, read-only cards, smartphone app, prices of accessories, etc., were all part of sacrifices and compromises of the design. I can't imagine that Nintendo would want to throw all of that out the window.

 

[notaskwid]

Here's the thing I don't understand about people speculating on a "console-only" or "portable-only" version of the Nintendo Switch. Isn't the hybrid design the entire point of the console, so wouldn't releasing two separate SKUs work against the entire console itself? Everything from the battery life, read-only cards, smartphone app, prices of accessories, etc., were all part of sacrifices and compromises of the design. I can't imagine that Nintendo would want to throw all of that out the window.

It's born from the preception that the console is too expensive to sell well on either market.
So, if you could take this or take that and make it cheaper it would sell better.
Nintendo seems to banking on it catching on like the Wii.

 

[randomengine]

Is this how it's going to be for the entire Switch life cycle when if you argue from the point of view of being a handheld Nintendo fans say it's a home console and if you argue from a home console point of view they say it's a handheld.

Perpetually moving goal posts.

It's a versatile system. Like it or not PS4 doesn't have that versatility.

 

[FalsettoVibe]

We shall see.

 

[Gator86]

Reminds me how Destiny is and isn't a MMO whenever it's convenient.

It's a pain in the ass to argue with.

Spot on. People will argue it's Thing B whenever someone points out how it's a bad Thing A. I expect this to continue throughout the entire Switch run... and also be infuriating when Destiny 2 launches.

 

[mrlion]

Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

Those are your numbers? NeoGAF? Cmon now..

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

Port over lots of 3ds and Wii U games to help out the library until fresh software can make it out.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly

You might want your sample size to be a tad larger than what you just said there buddy.

 

[marc^o^]

Most parents today will give their children a smartphone on which they can play crappy free-to-play games the whole day through. A $300 Nintendo Switch with $60 games is a very expensive luxury that most kids will have to do without.

Most parents today used to have a SNES. And Switch is SNES reborn: Bomberman, Street Fighter 2, Mario Kart or VC games: these local multiplayer focused games remind it easily.

As a dad I can't wait to play Bomberman with my girls, 4 player Tetris, or Mario Kart with the new easy mode - designed for my wife. It's a family console, focused on multiplayer, by design. I'm not sure you realize the extent of it yet.

I think parents won't be too hard to convince, when our kids ask a Switch for Mario, Splatoon, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, etc.

It's not Nintendo's priority now, with the Zelda launch.
When the time comes though - starting this holiday season with Mario, you'll notice the messaging switch, towards family gaming.

 

[ckaneo]

It will really depend on:

-How much of the 3DS/Vita market they can get on board as the only portable option as 3DS support dries up.

-How many lapsed Nintendo fans that skipped the Wii U and/or 3DS they can get back on board.

-How many PS4/X1/PC gamers they can convince that the Switch is an ideal complementary console to whatever they have.

Even as skeptical as I am, I see this selling in the 40-50 million range when all is said and done, after price drops, maybe hardware revisions (portable only/console only versions down the road perhaps). 40 million by 2020 is pretty o1ptimistic though.

40 million in 3 years....

 

[Deleted member 752119]

Here's the thing I don't understand about people speculating on a "console-only" or "portable-only" version of the Nintendo Switch. Isn't the hybrid design the entire point of the console, so wouldn't releasing two separate SKUs work against the entire console itself? Everything from the battery life, read-only cards, smartphone app, prices of accessories, etc., were all part of sacrifices and compromises of the design. I can't imagine that Nintendo would want to throw all of that out the window.

Of course that's true--if it sells well.

If it doesn't, then going with separate skus is a way to get costs down since the concept didn't appeal to a mass market.

Only time will tell.

40 million in 3 years....

And I said I thought that was pretty optimistic at the end of the post you quoted, given I see 40-50 million lifetime if it does well and gets 5+ years.

 

[7DollarHagane]

Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

Someone's been reading too much GAF.

This is a Pokemon machine. 40 mil easy

 

[nycgamer4ever]

40 million is conservative? Sounds great to me!



I would remind you of the reaction on GAF to the Wii.

You really can't compare anything to the Wii. Remember the WiiU? How soon we forget.

That being said I am not sure about this prediction. The next PS and MS console will almost certainly be released before then so competition is fierce.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

I think that if they do a cheaper handheld-only SKU with no dock at $199 (and later reduced to $149 and then $99 as it gets cheaper to make these things), they can hit that number.

They need the right combination of SKUs and variable pricing to make this work, though. They can't sit on the price like they did with the WiiU (and they won't because they have to get these into homes with nothing to fall back on, really).

 

[fredrancour]

Here's the thing I don't understand about people speculating on a "console-only" or "portable-only" version of the Nintendo Switch. Isn't the hybrid design the entire point of the console, so wouldn't releasing two separate SKUs work against the entire console itself? Everything from the battery life, read-only cards, smartphone app, prices of accessories, etc., were all part of sacrifices and compromises of the design. I can't imagine that Nintendo would want to throw all of that out the window.

even if it turns out ten or twenty people love the hybrid concept and buy one, there'll still be non-customers who'd buy cheaper alternate skus to try out the library of games built up by selling to the hybrid audience. Some parents might buy a kid a $150 or $200 dollar Nintendo Go that doesn't output to a tv when they'd never buy a 300 dollar Switch. Some core gamers would buy a dirt-cheap settop box to be a secondary console if they're kind of interested in first party games.

I think i just found the next opportunity for horrible hardware naming conventions right here.

 

[jroc74]

Off the back of the 3DS, I can see it happening. And not impossible to hit.

 

[Skittzo0413]

You really can't compare anything to the Wii. Remember the WiiU? How soon we forget.

That being said I am not sure about this prediction. The next PS and MS console will almost certainly be released before then so competition is fierce.

I never said GAF didn't predict the Wii U correctly (although GAF thought the Wii U would do much better than they thought the Wii would do), just that GAF is clearly not a good indicator of success.

DS, Wii, 3DS were all going to bomb super hard according to this website.

 

[Inferno313]

You really can't compare anything to the Wii. Remember the WiiU? How soon we forget.

That being said I am not sure about this prediction. The next PS and MS console will almost certainly be released before then so competition is fierce.

2020? Eh, I'm not sure sure. The PS3 and Xbox 360 lasted 8, and 7 years respectively before being replaced. With mid-gen upgrades like PS4 Pro and Project Scorpio happening, I wouldn't be surprised if this gen lasts even a bit longer. I imagine it'll be *around* 2020 that we see the next generation kick off, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was closer to 2021 or 2022.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I never said GAF didn't predict the Wii U correctly (although GAF thought the Wii U would do much better than they thought the Wii would do), just that GAF is clearly not a good indicator of success.

DS, Wii, 3DS were all going to bomb super hard according to this website.

WiiU and Vita were going to bomb super hard according to this website and they did. See generalised statements are easy to use to discredit actual arguments.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

WiiU and Vita were going to bomb super hard according to this website and they did. See generalised statements are easy to use to discredit actual arguments.

2/5 would generally be considered a bad score, anyways.

 

[Oregano]

WiiU and Vita were going to bomb super hard according to this website and they did. See generalised statements are easy to use to discredit actual arguments.

I don't think that's quite true. People were expecting Vita to wipe the floor with 3DS.

 

[Subtervotion]

Not including the Wii, the last Nintendo home console to surpass 40m was the SNES. That's pretty insane.

So can Switch really do it? I'd say yes but only if they have the proper games. PS4 hit 40m and it took around 3 years right? A console that's done everything almost perfectly since launch. So yeah, it's kind a a stretch to expect Switch to hit 40m by 2020.

 

[TheGreyHulk]

Why are we comparing this to the 3DS again? The 3DS didnt start selling until it got a price drop and was affordable to buy damn near one for each kid in families.

This is a home console at $300. It's going to need to get to $199 in order to meet these estimates.

I'd be surprised if they meet this estimate.

 

[TheWorthyEdge]

Hm...personally I think it's about 10-15 million too high.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

2/5 would generally be considered a bad score, anyways.

PS4 was predicted to do well, 360 was predicted to well and XB1 was predicted to have severe decline.

I can cherry pick all day, still does not change the point I made with the "oh GAF said this and it wasn't correct so therefore this other GAF statement has little weight" mentality.

 

[Nickle]

That's not a lot, considering that they won't be selling two different devices.

 

[TS-08]

Not including the Wii, the last Nintendo home console to surpass 40m was the SNES. That's pretty insane.

So can Switch really do it? I'd say yes but only if they have the proper games. PS4 hit 40m and it took around 3 years right? A console that's done everything almost perfectly since launch. So yeah, it's kind a a stretch to expect Switch to hit 40m by 2020.

Just another reminder that the prediction is through 2020, so almost 4 years to get 40 million.

 

[Skittzo0413]

WiiU and Vita were going to bomb super hard according to this website and they did. See generalised statements are easy to use to discredit actual arguments.

This:

2/5 would generally be considered a bad score, anyways.

And how is that a generalized statement, and how is "GAF thinks Switch is shit so it can't possibly do well" (which is the only thing I'm responding to) an actual argument? Is it that controversial to argue that this website generally is a very poor predictor of mainstream success?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

This:



And how is that a generalized statement, and how is "GAF thinks Switch is shit so it can't possibly do well" (which is the only thing I'm responding to) an actual argument? Is it that controversial to argue that this website generally is a very poor predictor of mainstream success?

Because GAF has a spectrum of views. Thats incorrect: its more like a lot of people on GAF think the Switch is disappointing due to several factors such as poor third party support, weak hardware, lacking online features and bad pricing.

GAF is not a single entity to lump together and shit out an average prediction. Thats disingenuity at best and denial at worst.