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WSJ: Nintendo now to manufacture 16 million Switch consoles next FY, up from 8m

maxcriden

Member
I actually meant first 9-10 months, and I was thinking of NSMBU, Nintendo Land, and Pikmin 3. Forgot about G&W, and did NSLU come out in that time period?

Oh, I see. I forgot about NSLU somehow! (Love that game.) NSLU came out June as DLC and retail July everywhere except here in NA end of August. Pikmin 3 came out July everywhere except here in NA beginning of August. So first 9 full months in NA had 5 retail games, and EU/AUS/JP had 6. That's including LCU. If I did the math right. But regardless, we're definitely in agreement that Switch is positioned roughly a zillion times stronger than Wii U was, based on software alone (and also based on other factors discussed elsewhere ITT).

How widespread is the JCL issue? Do we have an indication of that being more than the dock issue? In normal play circumstances, I mean.
 
Arguing that Switch falling behind Vita is a matter of "concern" when other posters quite clearly laid out that the Vita failed to sell through its initial shipment while Switch remains supply constrained. After being corrected he still maintains that position on this very page.

In this thread he makes the exact same out of context argument about Switch falling behind WiiU which is directly relevant and ignores that the subject has already been covered in the Media Create thread that he cites.

A simple misunderstanding is one thing, but persistently clinging to a disingenuous argument after being corrected multiple times suggests that he's deliberately trying to push a narrative that he knows is misleading. And since previous attempts to engage him have failed, it seems unlikely that engaging him again will produce a different result.
Actually you attacked me on the Vita statement, I didn't bring it up, and I responded to you with the ORIGINAL reason why I made that statement in THAT thread. Now your literally lying your tail off.

Not only that you're trying to attack me in this thread based on my post in a different thread, when I was talking about other posts not by me in the thread. Your trying to take things out of context and cause confusion. I said "people say that it may fall behind" that's a simple statement and it could have ended there.
 
Got a tempered glass protector on order to be as safe as possible against it.

The screen scratching issue seems very overblown... probably by screen protector manufacturers themselves, but they must life too and when people feel "safe" with a extra coat of plastic on their screen (besides the obvious disadvantages like worse touch controls and worse view of screen) they should buy it.

The Joycon issue is a real issue, but I am unsure how widespread it is. Can't reproduce it myself on "real life circumstances" on several Switches. Nonetheless I am curious how Nintendo will react to it in a few weeks.
 

TS-08

Member
Actually you attacked me on the Vita statement, I didn't bring it up, and I responded to you with the ORIGINAL reason why I made that statement in THAT thread. Now your literally lying your tail off.

Not only that you're trying to attack me in this thread based on my post in a different thread, when I was talking about other posts not by me in the thread. Your trying to take things out of context and cause confusion. I said "people say that it may fall behind" that's a simple statement and it could have ended there.

Your comparisons to the Vita and the Wii U have a clear intent behind them. I'm not sure who you think you're fooling.
 
We're going to need a bigger screen for that projection.

Who brought up the Vita in this thread? It wasn't me.

This thread started with me saying people in my say it may fall behind Wii U , and then you decided to be a moron and attack me on an unrelated post in a different thread. Anybody reading can see that, does it make you feel better?


Ts-08 above is an example of people picking sides instead of reading THIS thread.
 
Who brought up the Vita in this thread? It wasn't me.

This thread started with me saying people in my say it may fall behind Wii U , and then you decided to be a moron and attack me on an unrelated post in a different thread. Anybody reading can see that, does it make you feel better?

Bro. Come on.
 

TS-08

Member
Who brought up the Vita in this thread? It wasn't me.

This thread started with me saying people in my say it may fall behind Wii U , and then you decided to be a moron and attack me on an unrelated post in a different thread. Anybody reading can see that, does it make you feel better?


Ts-08 above is an example of people picking sides instead of reading THIS thread.

I'm obviously reading the thread. Please inform me of what context you think I'm missing.
 
OK. Let's just drop the bickering. The fact of the matter is that you generally have to wait a bit after launch to see if supply limitations are a factor in terms of assessing performance. Trying to do an apples to apples comparison of launch windows is kind of a fool's errand when it's often the case that one or both consoles are going to be supply constrained.
 
OK. Let's just drop the bickering. The fact of the matter is that you generally have to wait a bit after launch to see if supply limitations are a factor in terms of assessing performance. Trying to do an apples to apples comparison of launch windows is kind of a fool's errand when it's often the case that one or both consoles are going to be supply constrained.

Ok
 

Platy

Member
OK. Let's just drop the bickering. The fact of the matter is that you generally have to wait a bit after launch to see if supply limitations are a factor in terms of assessing performance. Trying to do an apples to apples comparison of launch windows is kind of a fool's errand when it's often the case that one or both consoles are going to be supply constrained.

But I want to make "it prints hybrid money" gifs =(
 

Pachinko

Member
I feel like this will be a bad thing long term. Switch has only been out for 14 days now but I suppose it's better to lock in components early and guarantee pricing in case it does continue to sell really well.

I'm not 100% convinced that it will keep selling super fast and feel that IF they do manage to build 16 million of them by the end of next March , they'll be sitting on 4-6 million unsold consoles but .. who knows I guess ?

I'm waiting until I can buy a switch with Mario Odyssey and a pro controller for 299.99 Canadian. I just don't feel it's worth more than that ... I could be waiting until christmas 2018 at best but whatever. Nintendo and it's partners obviously know some information I'm not aware of that has convinced them to move forward with this order increase , perhaps there's a nice bundle/ price drop planned for this fall that they expect will keep sales going ? Again, anything anyone says right now is just hearsay and conjecture.
 
Who brought up the Vita in this thread? It wasn't me.

This thread started with me saying people in my say it may fall behind Wii U , and then you decided to be a moron and attack me on an unrelated post in a different thread. Anybody reading can see that, does it make you feel better?


Ts-08 above is an example of people picking sides instead of reading THIS thread.

No one has said that it may fall behind the Wii U though. Or at least you didn't produce proof that anyone has. You are using the Trump reasoning of "all the people are saying" as a form of an argument and it isn't effective.

The vast majority of people in the Media-Create threads think the Switch is going to significantly outperform the Wii U, perhaps this year even. For reference the Wii U has sold rougly ~3.3 million in Japan LTD and additionally it's best years were around 900k. You can see most people's predictions for the Switch for 2017 alone in this thread if you dig through it a bit:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1341990
 

Jacce

Banned
Who brought up the Vita in this thread? It wasn't me.

This thread started with me saying people in my say it may fall behind Wii U , and then you decided to be a moron and attack me on an unrelated post in a different thread. Anybody reading can see that, does it make you feel better?


Ts-08 above is an example of people picking sides instead of reading THIS thread.
No one has ever said it would fall behind Wii U. That is beyond absurd to even suggest.
 
I don't they'll ever make Joycon-less Switch. Multiplayer on the get go is Switch main appeal, and taking that away you only got a powerful handheld like the Vita was (of course with better software).

Multiplayer on the go is not the main appeal, it's one of many. I don't get why people keep saying stuff like this, a handheld only Switch wouldn't be a replacement for the main Switch, just like how the 2DS was not a replacement for the 3DS, it was just a cheaper entry point with the primary target being kids. Switch is a premium product and it makes sense to have a more entry level SKU that allows people who are just interested in playing the games to get into the ecosystem and then they could sell a dock for the handheld focused SKU as an upgrade path.
Has Nintendo ever done that though?

It literally took years for Nintendo to sell through their initial batch of Wii Us, they even had to buy consoles back from retailers and sell them back as new bundles.
 
Awesome news. Hopefully it holds its pace well. I really hope they manage to find room for a price drop or good bundle come the holidays though. Not only for myself bit I think this could really shift units well once it's past launch pricing.
 
I'm not 100% convinced that it will keep selling super fast and feel that IF they do manage to build 16 million of them by the end of next March , they'll be sitting on 4-6 million unsold consoles but .. who knows I guess ?

Well, if you look at the two big hurdles to Wii U's success:

1) poor consumer awareness/interest
2) few major titles to compel purchase

Both of those problems seem to be working themselves out on Switch. Awareness and interest seems to be quite a bit higher, and from the sound of it most of the big-name titles that actually did drive sales of Wii U are coming in the first year (Mario Kart, Splatoon, 3D Mario, and Smash if you believe the rumors), plus Zelda, plus a new IP (Arms), plus Pokemon (another rumored title), plus whatever else they have planned - and, critically, plus a bunch of third-party games that totally make sense on a Nintendo platform.

The pulse is definitely way stronger than it ever was for Wii U. Not competing with another Nintendo platform full of flagship games will definitely help, too.
 
I dunno, at the moment I think it's the other way around. The dock issue is pretty common. And it's not really surprising since it's just plain plastic and with no extra protection just in case someone has a warped dock or more of them warp over time and repeated use. Not even any kind of protective padding or anything. That's a clear oversight and could get worse with time as many, especially younger owners, aren't likely to be ultra cautious when they dock and undock the system a hundred times.

Got a tempered glass protector on order to be as safe as possible against it.

And then ofcourse yeah, there's the joycon issue.

No matter how much I hear people talking about how common the dock scratching issue is, I still have seen such little actual evidence that it's happening. I honestly have no idea how it could even be happening with a non-warped dock. The rails prevent the screen from ever touching anything besides the bezel. This isn't something easily replicable with most (or even something like half) of the hardware like the Joycon issue seems to be.

Has Nintendo ever done that though?

Yes, very badly with the Wii U. One would think they would be highly reluctant to make that same mistake 4 years later, so hopefully they have more reasonable grounds for doubling their production.

Oh, I see. I forgot about NSLU somehow! (Love that game.) NSLU came out June as DLC and retail July everywhere except here in NA end of August. Pikmin 3 came out July everywhere except here in NA beginning of August. So first 9 full months in NA had 5 retail games, and EU/AUS/JP had 6. That's including LCU. If I did the math right. But regardless, we're definitely in agreement that Switch is positioned roughly a zillion times stronger than Wii U was, based on software alone (and also based on other factors discussed elsewhere ITT).

How widespread is the JCL issue? Do we have an indication of that being more than the dock issue? In normal play circumstances, I mean.

I wasn't counting LCU since that's coming to other platforms now, so it's not really a first party title. When you consider actual, traditional first party titles in the first 9 months they had 3, one third as much as they'll have for the Switch. But yeah, even taking LCU, Pikmin 3 and NSLU into account, it's still far less (and far less compelling) than what the Switch will have.

Whatever way you cut it it's a huge improvement, and it should be proof enough of the whole "combined output" thing actually happening.

The joycon issue seems to me to be a hardware flaw in a good chunk of the retail units, possibly even a majority. A lot of people who don't experience it could still have the flawed joycon, but don't notice this problem since it only happens under certain circumstances (distance, obstruction, wireless interference). So it seems to be a much, much more widespread problem than the screen scratching, though much easier to ignore or work around.
 
Mario Kart would be a good move to convince Wii U upgrades. Asking a lot of us to pay full price for MK8 again just for a real battle mode.
Mario Kart seems like a likely, but possibly flawed packin. A lot of the people who would be swayed by a free Mario Kart game may have been sold on the WiiU (which had the same game in a popular bundle configuration). So that's a significant part of the audience who may feel slighted by just being offered the same game for a second time.
 

maxcriden

Member
I wasn't counting LCU since that's coming to other platforms now, so it's not really a first party title. When you consider actual, traditional first party titles in the first 9 months they had 3, one third as much as they'll have for the Switch. But yeah, even taking LCU, Pikmin 3 and NSLU into account, it's still far less (and far less compelling) than what the Switch will have.

Whatever way you cut it it's a huge improvement, and it should be proof enough of the whole "combined output" thing actually happening.

The joycon issue seems to me to be a hardware flaw in a good chunk of the retail units, possibly even a majority. A lot of people who don't experience it could still have the flawed joycon, but don't notice this problem since it only happens under certain circumstances (distance, obstruction, wireless interference). So it seems to be a much, much more widespread problem than the screen scratching, though much easier to ignore or work around.

Hmm, at the time and throughout Wii U's life until now, LCU was essentially a console exclusive and was co-developed or assisted in development by SPD so while I see why it's excluded now, I don't know that I would discount it from this counting of launch window exclusives. But with that said, I'm still counting 4 and not 3 games in 9 months for NA - NSMBU, NL, G&W and Pikmin 3 - I think those all fit your definition of traditional first party games. I think NSLU maybe counts for EU/AUS/JP since it's a retail release, taking the count to 5, but as in-store DLC I can see why it shouldn't, and then I almost want to discount NL entirely since it is a pack-in (despite my love for the game). But, this is just me splitting hairs because it's a fun topic to discuss, you know I'm in agreement with your point for sure and we're on the same page as usual. It's definitely a massive improvement and as you said, evidence of the benefit of combined output, which I expect to see the fruits of even more so next year.

Thanks for the info regarding the JC issue and how widespread it is. For some reason I had assumed it was far less, but that makes sense. Luckily, it seems far from the majority are having actual issues from it, right? So that is something at least.
 

jts

...hate me...
Mario Kart seems like a likely, but possibly flawed packin. A lot of the people who would be swayed by a free Mario Kart game may have been sold on the WiiU (which had the same game in a popular bundle configuration). So that's a significant part of the audience who may feel slighted by just being offered the same game for a second time.

Bums me out that I'll probably buy MK8D for full price while for MK8 on the Wii U I bought it on launch with the following incentives:

FREE extra game (Pikmin 3, WWHD, etc) and a discount on Super Mario Kart.

And yet I'll probably still do it.
 
Hmm, at the time and throughout Wii U's life until now, LCU was essentially a console exclusive and was co-developed or assisted in development by SPD so while I see why it's excluded now, I don't know that I would discount it from this counting of launch window exclusives. But with that said, I'm still counting 4 and not 3 games in 9 months for NA - NSMBU, NL, G&W and Pikmin 3 - I think those all fit your definition of traditional first party games. I think NSLU maybe counts for EU/AUS/JP since it's a retail release, taking the count to 5, but as in-store DLC I can see why it shouldn't, and then I almost want to discount NL entirely since it is a pack-in (despite my love for the game). But, this is just me splitting hairs because it's a fun topic to discuss, you know I'm in agreement with your point for sure and we're on the same page as usual. It's definitely a massive improvement and as you said, evidence of the benefit of combined output, which I expect to see the fruits of even more so next year.

Thanks for the info regarding the JC issue and how widespread it is. For some reason I had assumed it was far less, but that makes sense. Luckily, it seems far from the majority are having actual issues from it, right? So that is something at least.

In the interest in splitting more hairs :D

Pikmin 3 was August in NA at least so that would be 10 months from November. But yeah like you said this is all splitting hairs and we're in agreement: this is a massive improvement.

As for the joycon issue I agree it doesn't seem like that many people are having issues, but the ones who do have problems- the way it's described it certainly seems like it depends heavily on your usage, positioning, wireless interference, as much if not more than it depends on any actual hardware flaw. It wouldn't surprise me if every single JCL had a weaker signal due to the way they were designed, and it's only affecting certain people for the above reasons.

But then again, it seems some people find that different JCLs work fine for them in the same setup, so maybe some JCLs don't have this flaw.

Who knows! It's pretty frustrating that Nintendo has not addressed this problem overall (besides the "tips" like avoiding fish tanks) but I do understand why they haven't.
 

maxcriden

Member
In the interest in splitting more hairs :D

Pikmin 3 was August in NA at least so that would be 10 months from November. But yeah like you said this is all splitting hairs and we're in agreement: this is a massive improvement.

As for the joycon issue I agree it doesn't seem like that many people are having issues, but the ones who do have problems- the way it's described it certainly seems like it depends heavily on your usage, positioning, wireless interference, as much if not more than it depends on any actual hardware flaw. It wouldn't surprise me if every single JCL had a weaker signal due to the way they were designed, and it's only affecting certain people for the above reasons.

But then again, it seems some people find that different JCLs work fine for them in the same setup, so maybe some JCLs don't have this flaw.

Who knows! It's pretty frustrating that Nintendo has not addressed this problem overall (besides the "tips" like avoiding fish tanks) but I do understand why they haven't.

Wait, if we are splitting more hairs I don't think that's correct. Wii U launched November 18th, 2012. One month from then is 12/18/2012. Nine months from launch is 8/18/2012. Pikmin launched 8/3/12. This is within nine months from launch. Right?

And for that matter, if any of the Nintendo games don't launch by 12/3/17, there will be fewer than 9 games within 9 months. However, I actually expect even more titles to be announced to release within that period, so I don't think that will come to pass regardless.

I agree with what you wrote about the JCLs. It is an odd phenomenon. I hope we get some solid more info on it eventually, and that the players having issues can get speedy and amicable resolution.
 

jdstorm

Banned
More thoughts on a Clambshell type redesign

1. It wouuld probably be close to double the thickness of the original Switch. However the Width would be reduced keeping the form factor managable for most.

2. The "Switch" Gymic would still be there and the Screen would be able to Slide out of the Shell and into a regular switch Dock, or Attatch to a pair of Joycons.

3. What would you do with the empty space in the middle? Put the Amiibo sensor there. It would be great for "card battle style games" where peoplw would put their battle cards on the launcher and have something appear in game. You could also use that area for a trackpad/touchpad for drawing (Art Academy/Mario Maker) and easier store access

4. Wouldnt sticks screw up the slimline package? Yes but there is no reason why Nintendo wouldnt be able to go with a Steam Controler style recessed trackpad that many gamers seem to love as an allternative to sticks.
 
Wait, if we are splitting more hairs I don't think that's correct. Wii U launched November 18th, 2012. One month from then is 12/18/2012. Nine months from launch is 8/18/2012. Pikmin launched 8/3/12. This is within nine months from launch. Right?

And for that matter, if any of the Nintendo games don't launch by 12/3/17, there will be fewer than 9 games within 9 months. However, I actually expect even more titles to be announced to release within that period, so I don't think that will come to pass regardless.

I agree with what you wrote about the JCLs. It is an odd phenomenon. I hope we get some solid more info on it eventually, and that the players having issues can get speedy and amicable resolution.

... damn math! It always fails me (I fail it) haha

But yeah we agree with the result of all of this, much improved first party release rate. I'm very excited to see what else they'll announce at E3. It's definitely time to hear what Retro's been up to.
 

massucci

Banned
It seems really premature. Sales are not bad but come on, the first months barely give any idea of the future perspective for such things.
 
Holy shit, they have some massive confidence in this system.
Makes me wonder how many big hitting games they haven't announced yet...

It will probably get Pokemon, and hopefully Monster Hunter, so... well. If it's a success it will take over the place of 3DS and Wii U.
 
It seems really premature. Sales are not bad but come on, the first months barely give any idea of the future perspective for such things.

Well, Nintendo has much more information about this than we do. Information such as, audience demographics, retailer response (how many units retailers want to order), upcoming software, production costs...

I wouldn't make this decision with the info I have now, but considering Nintendo has apparently made this decision, I'm led to believe the information they have is very encouraging.
 

massucci

Banned
Well, Nintendo has much more information about this than we do. Information such as, audience demographics, retailer response (how many units retailers want to order), upcoming software, production costs...

I wouldn't make this decision with the info I have now, but considering Nintendo has apparently made this decision, I'm led to believe the information they have is very encouraging.
I suspect they are exaggerating their success, a little bit, maybe to gain more market trust and to push the demand furthermore.
It's pretty safe to say they aren't just basing this production ramp-up on the first two weeks of sales and nothing else.
? And what else? They have a time machine?
 
It seems really premature. Sales are not bad but come on, the first months barely give any idea of the future perspective for such things.

One thing that I've noticed about their Switch strategy that I never noticed at Wii U's launch: they're already advertising tons of big-name games that aren't even out yet.

Maybe the fact that this is happening/possible on Switch is having a positive impact on their ability to measure interest and forecast demand?
 

phanphare

Banned
One thing that I've noticed about their Switch strategy that I never noticed at Wii U's launch: they're already advertising tons of big-name games that aren't even out yet.

Maybe the fact that this is happening/possible on Switch is having a positive impact on their ability to measure interest and forecast demand?

yeah I saw a commercial with Zelda, Arms, and Splatoon 2 the other day
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
But people with no understanding of business and economics said that Nintendo can somehow magically sell more by shipping less...

/snark
 
One thing that I've noticed about their Switch strategy that I never noticed at Wii U's launch: they're already advertising tons of big-name games that aren't even out yet.

Maybe the fact that this is happening/possible on Switch is having a positive impact on their ability to measure interest and forecast demand?

yeah I saw a commercial with Zelda, Arms, and Splatoon 2 the other day

They're being very, very smart with how they're marketing this thing. It's great to see.
 

Plum

Member
? And what more they should have? A time machine?

They're a large multi-national company, they likely have a lot of very well paid people analysing future decisions. Remember that they know what games are coming out until at least 2018, they have a lot more information than we do.
 

massucci

Banned
They're a large multi-national company, they likely have a lot of very well paid people analysing future decisions. Remember that they know what games are coming out until at least 2018, they have a lot more information than we do.
No offence, but after the Wii U fiasco they are suddenly become that smart and efficient company? I will wait a a little bit, before to call it a sure success.IMHO.
Probably they already planned to rise the stock if sales weren't too far off in the first two weeks and here we are.
have you ever worked for a large company before?
No. So?
 

Plum

Member
No offence, but after the Wii U fiasco they are suddenly become that smart and efficient company? I will wait a a little bit, before to call it a sure success.IMHO.

Businesses can learn in much the same way people can; it's been half-a-decade since the Wii U was clearly a flop (2013), Nintendo's higher ups haven't exactly been doing nothing since then. They haven't "suddenly" become clever in much the same way someone doing a 3 year University course in business doesn't "suddenly" get a degree.
 

4Tran

Member
It seems really premature. Sales are not bad but come on, the first months barely give any idea of the future perspective for such things.
I venture that Nintendo had only a very small window to ramp up production. If they delayed too long then they would have been hit with higher manufacturing costs. It would have been more prudent to wait until June before making that decision though.
 

massucci

Banned
Businesses can learn in much the same way people can; it's been half-a-decade since the Wii U was clearly a flop (2013), Nintendo's higher ups haven't exactly been doing nothing since then. They haven't "suddenly" become clever in much the same way someone doing a 3 year University course in business doesn't "suddenly" get a degree.
Honestly the switch not seems too far off to the wii u concept. I'm not seeing that evolution in their strategies to cry the miracle. And it's just 2 weeks to launch. Let's not talk like it was passed a whole year. To announce to have doubled their financial target not indicate anything. It seems just another way to promote their console demand.
 
Bums me out that I'll probably buy MK8D for full price while for MK8 on the Wii U I bought it on launch with the following incentives:

FREE extra game (Pikmin 3, WWHD, etc) and a discount on Super Mario Kart.

And yet I'll probably still do it.

Well you got a free game and had fun with Mario Kart. Now you get the perfect version in 1080p/60fps with all DLCs and battlemode on one cartridge, i don't think you should feel robbed ;) Some people bought "The last of us" again after a few months on PS4 and i think Mario Kart 8 has the better replay value. And most people didn't play it cause they had no Wii U
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
It's just 2 weeks. Let's not talk like it was passed a whole year. To announce to have doubled their financial target not indicate anything. It's just promotion.
It cerainly does indicate something. It means Nintendo will be manufacturing a whole load more consoles that either need to be sold or stored
 
Again. I'd wait for some sales data beyond the launch period before you start celebrating that the haters have been owned.
I agree with that. It is a good start, but time will tell if thr system maintains those sales.

If anything,I hope the good beginning will immediately encourage publishers to give the system a chance and give the system support.
 
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