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[spekkeh]

The point is, Nintendo is competing with MS and Sony, no matter how people on Gaf try to twist this.

Average Bill walks into the video-games department of a store with 400$ in his pockets.
"Hm, what am I going to buy? This thing that plays games and I can carry it around...or this thing that plays games , those games looking great with my 4K TV? Or the cheaper version with 2 games?", "Or will I spend my hard earned cash on something completely else, something that doesn't play games"

Some people on Gaf should really try the average person's view for once. Imagine telling a non-gamer that you bought a Switch and a PS4/X1 in quick succession. Most people will say: "But why? You just bought a gaming thing 2 weeks ago"

If the discriminator is that it should play games or not, then your earlier question whether it is a handheld is completely irrelevant. A handheld plays games just as much as a console.

Only it isn't irrelevant and your fanboy troll is weak.

 

[Markoman]

Whenever a poster here imagines the hypothetical "average" consumer they make them out to be some braindead neanderthal. Average Bill doesn't go to the store with $400 to burn and nothing in mind to spend it on — he's likely already decided what he wants based on what he's looking to do, whether it's to play Destiny, or Zelda, or watch Netflix, or whatever.

Seriously, people other than "hardcore gamers" are capable of making informed purchasing decisions based on their individual preferences. Yes, Nintendo is competing with Microsoft and Sony, in that they're competing for consumers' money. But they're making different value propositions entirely — it's easy to see how Nintendo's offering is different and makes them less of a direct competitor, just like they were doing with the Wii.

The Switch's value proposition is not so complicated that people can't understand the benefits (and tradeoffs) versus a "standard" console.

Ok, I agree with that...in other words: Switch will succeed when the mass market sees a true value proposition in the handheld aspect. It will fail when people see this as nice thing to have, but not worth the $ asked compared to the competition.
So, the real question will be (outside of Japan): How many people really care about having (another) portable device to play games.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

how many units did the Wii sell in it's first year?

First April-March: 18.61m shipped. Since it launched in November the first full four quarters we have would be January-December, though, which was 16.94m.

Um no, the PSP was definitely major competition for Nintendo. Unless you only consider beating Nintendo being "competition." The PSP was just shy of outselling the GBA in lifetime sales. If you would have told Nintendo in 2005 that Sony's upcoming PSP was going to sell 75 million units they would have shat the bed.

Well, they DID kind of shit the bed. They preemptively pushed aside the amazingly successful GBA, and lucked out on landing on something even bigger.

 

[slit]

Well, they DID kind of shit the bed. They preemptively pushed aside the amazingly successful GBA, and lucked out on landing on something even bigger.

Yeah, I remember how many in the gaming media were saying Nintendo was pretty much done. Sony was going to muscle them out of the handheld arena. Ignoring evidence where Nintendo dealt with past competitors that had much stronger hardware.

 

[LegendofLex]

Hm ok, so the Switch is mainly a handheld and Nintendo has no home-console anymore, is that right?

Hybrid handheld + home console is not a category any of Nintendo's competitors are competing in. In general, mobility is an area where both of Nintendo's biggest competitors are very, very weak not just in the gaming space but in general. It's a value their games don't (and likely can't) have. That Nintendo Switch has no dedicated handheld competitor just means it's a stronger value proposition for consumers who value portability.

Mobile is a competitor for $ + attention (and so is PS4), but not a direct competitor when it comes to Switch content + value proposition. There isn't really a big market for niche console games on mobile; there isn't really a big market for Nintendo-style/arcade-like/retro games on PS4, either. There's clearly a big market for the stuff Nintendo's selling since 3DS + Wii U combined was still about 75m hardware sales + 450m software sales.

People look at PS2 selling 150 million units as an era where Nintendo was getting trounced, but Nintendo was still king of the handhelds during that time; DS started picking up steam at the same time that PS2 was king on the mountain and Wii started exploding out of the gate. PS2's console success (and Wii's) didn't really threaten Nintendo's handheld success; likewise will probably be true for PS4 vs. Switch.

3DS was Nintendo's worst handheld sales-wise, which, sure, is partly due to mobile eating up more casual players. But we also have to remember that 3DS was also Nintendo's worst handheld in general - in terms of appeal, library, etc. That thing was never destined to sell much more than it has to date. Trying to say Switch will do badly because 3DS was such a contraction compared to DS ignores how much better Switch's first year outlook seems to be.

 

[Buggy Loop]

Whenever a poster here imagines the hypothetical "average" consumer they make them out to be some braindead neanderthal. Average Bill doesn't go to the store with $400 to burn and nothing in mind to spend it on — he's likely already decided what he wants based on what he's looking to do, whether it's to play Destiny, or Zelda, or watch Netflix, or whatever.

Seriously, people other than "hardcore gamers" are capable of making informed purchasing decisions based on their individual preferences. Yes, Nintendo is competing with Microsoft and Sony, in that they're competing for consumers' money. But they're making different value propositions entirely — it's easy to see how Nintendo's offering is different and makes them less of a direct competitor, just like they were doing with the Wii.

The Switch's value proposition is not so complicated that people can't understand the benefits (and tradeoffs) versus a "standard" console.

Don't forget that those neanderthals can spot 1080p vs 4K differences like an hawk, even though they probably connect their TV with an RCA cable...

 

[rawd]

Why are people this stubborn?

It's a hybrid. It's both. It can be w/e the user wants it to be.

Can it be my toothbrush

 

[Gotdatmoney]

Can it be my toothbrush

Yes. Please try and report results.

 

[rawd]

Yes. Please try and report results.

Bbiab

 

[redcrayon]

Switch will succeed when the mass market sees a true value proposition in the handheld aspect. It will fail when people see this as nice thing to have, but not worth the $ asked compared to the competition.

The Switch will succeed if the mass market sees a true value proposition in a device that can be whatever they want it to be. This idea that it's 'playable on the TV' function is redundant as other devices do it 'better' is archaic thinking in a world where people are watching TV on their iPad in bed rather than on their home cinema system because they happen to feel like it that evening, or putting their phone in a dock to play music rather than buy a stereo. Flexibility and convenience are just as potentially salable as raw fidelity or a single purpose device.

 

[Markoman]

The Switch will succeed if the mass market sees a true value proposition in a device that can be whatever they want it to be. This idea that it's 'playable on the TV' function is redundant as other devices do it 'better' is archaic thinking in a world where people are watching TV on their iPad in bed rather than on their home cinema system because they happen to feel like it that evening, or putting their phone in a dock to play music rather than buy a stereo. Flexibility and convenience are just as potentially salable as raw fidelity or a single purpose device.

Well, there are people like me who already know they will hardly use the portable functionality, which makes the Switch a 300+€ console with a very low value proposition compared to the competition.
But I don't want to discuss this any further, you may be right there with your last sentence. Only the future will tell...

 

[z0m3le]

I say that because AMD already has plans for a sub-15W APU based on 4x Zen cores and high-performance GPU parts based on Vega for release to the consumer market late this year, and a further die shrink next year. The only problem would be the way certain games were coded and speed of mddr4/availability of HBM2, so there would have to be some patching support, but they definitely aren't in a terrible position to miniaturize the PS4 further in the coming couple of years.

http://wccftech.com/amd-raven-ridge-apu-vega-zen-hbm-2017/

That's a 35 to 95 watt part. There is a 4 watt to 35 watt part with xb1 class gpu and no HBM memory, but there are no clocks listed for the wattage range and with the 16cu gpu, they would need to clock the gpu at 900mhz. Certainly not a portable chip.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

http://wccftech.com/amd-raven-ridge-apu-vega-zen-hbm-2017/

That's a 35 to 95 watt part. There is a 4 watt to 35 watt part with xb1 class gpu and no HBM memory, but there are no clocks listed for the wattage range and with the 16cu gpu, they would need to clock the gpu at 900mhz. Certainly not a portable chip.

Thats for the variant stacked with HBM, I thought. Page says HBM-less version scales 4W-35W with 12CU instead of 16CU. We'd just have to wait for release to get more info on clocks and TDP under load.

Even still, larger Surface Pros could consume 25W or more. We'd just need bigger higher density batteries. It's all hypothetical.I'd say Eagle Ridge would be when it starts actually being feasible.

 

[Peltz]

The point is, Nintendo is competing with MS and Sony, no matter how people on Gaf try to twist this.

Average Bill walks into the video-games department of a store with 400$ in his pockets.
"Hm, what am I going to buy? This thing that plays games and I can carry it around...or this thing that plays games , those games looking great with my 4K TV? Or the cheaper version with 2 games?", "Or will I spend my hard earned cash on something completely else, something that doesn't play games"

Some people on Gaf should really try the average person's view for once. Imagine telling a non-gamer that you bought a Switch and a PS4/X1 in quick succession. Most people will say: "But why? You just bought a gaming thing 2 weeks ago"

Eh... you really don't understand demographics. Maybe for Bill, that's true, but let's look at Nancy:

Average Nancy is 30 years old and hasn't owned a videogame system in years. In fact, the only system she's ever owned were an NES with Super Mario Bros./Duckhunt that she played with her siblings as a toddler. She also fondly remembered playing her friend's Gameboy at lunch time and most recently last summer she played Pokemon Go because all her friends were doing it.

Nancy has a little toddler of her own and wants to play games with him just like she did with her siblings when she was a kid. She sees that she can get a system that has family friendly games that is portable and comes with two controllers in the box. Her son can play it in the car while she's driving or they can play on TV together. The other systems don't do that so she doesn't look at them or care they exist. She buys the switch and moves on with her life and when Bill tries to explain his dilemma, Nancy is only feigning to pay attention.

Fin.

Flexibility and convenience are just as potentially salable as raw fidelity or a single purpose device.

I mean, that's my premise for choosing consoles over PCs for gaming in general (as I assume is the case for most console gamers). The Switch is just the fullest realization of that concept.

 

[LordRaptor]

Some people on Gaf should really try the average person's view for once.

Yes.

Oh wait, you think the "Owns a 4K TV, wants a traditional console but doesn't yet own one 3 years into a gen, but has $400 burning a hole in their pocket they didn't spend until now" is an average persons point of view?

 

[TangoAlphaLima]

This thing isn't selling 16 million a year, that's near PS4 levels.

Of course it won't sell through the entire production run in the next fiscal year. That would mean crazy demand. Neither the PS4 nor Xbox One were in large enough demand to sell out production runs past the first month or two.

The doubling of the production run simply means Nintendo is a lot more bullish on the Switch than they were previously. They'll probably be pleased with 10 million or so sold in that time frame.

 

[Savinowned]

Bbiab

LOL

 

[RMI]

Sounds like Nintendo knows something we don't. E3 this year will be very interesting.

Haha oh man hoping for an exciting Nintendo E3? I guess it's been long enough.

I really hope the new units fix the joycon antenna and dock issues. I could see myself getting one of these things this holiday if so.

 

[Clefargle]

First April-March: 18.61m shipped. Since it launched in November the first full four quarters we have would be January-December, though, which was 16.94m.

Well, they DID kind of shit the bed. They preemptively pushed aside the amazingly successful GBA, and lucked out on landing on something even bigger.

Lucked out? Lightning in a bottle? Fluke?

If you look at the history, Nintendo had been working on the DS for a while and had already transitioned the GBA successor development (code name Atlantis I think) into the DS. It was very much planned to replace the GBA, they just didn't want to hurt any potential sales of old GBA SP stock. So they said the infamous "third pillar" line to not shoot that product in the foot. It's the same exact situation with the 3DS. I don't see why people want to play off both the Wii and the DS as flukes that Nintendo stumbled into headlong without preparing for it. They are just super sonservative and like to slowly transition between generations with less risky launches. So they undersupply initially and the systems are usually sold out for a bit. Then they ramp production if needed based on sales forecasts using the launch sales as baseline. It's all obvious and sometimes they talk about these strategies explicitly.

 

[Shiggy]

Of course it won't sell through the entire production run in the next fiscal year. That would mean crazy demand. Neither the PS4 nor Xbox One were in large enough demand to sell out production runs past the first month or two.

The doubling of the production run simply means Nintendo is a lot more bullish on the Switch than they were previously. They'll probably be pleased with 10 million or so sold in that time frame.

I hope you're not working in supply chain management. Producing 16 mio units and then only selling 10 mio units to retailers sounds like a very terrible idea. You want to sell close to what you produce, otherwise you have high storage costs. Also, in that case you'd need to scale down production to get inventory levels down; when they are at an acceptable level later on, you need to scale production up again. Yet, that may not be easily possible due to existing contracts with suppliers and would lead to additional costs.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Of course it won't sell through the entire production run in the next fiscal year. That would mean crazy demand. Neither the PS4 nor Xbox One were in large enough demand to sell out production runs past the first month or two.

The doubling of the production run simply means Nintendo is a lot more bullish on the Switch than they were previously. They'll probably be pleased with 10 million or so sold in that time frame.

They won't be pleased if they end up with millions too many and have to halt production.

Lucked out? Lightning in a bottle? Fluke?

If you look at the history, Nintendo had been working on the DS for a while and had already transitioned the GBA successor development (code name Atlantis I think) into the DS. It was very much planned to replace the GBA, they just didn't want to hurt any potential sales of old GBA SP stock. So they said the infamous "third pillar" line to not shoot that product in the foot. It's the same exact situation with the 3DS. I don't see why people want to play off both the Wii and the DS as flukes that Nintendo stumbled into headlong without preparing for it.

I'm not saying they just stumbled into it, but there's no way without the outside impetus of PSP they would've introduced a successor to their fastest-selling system ever only 3.5 years into its existence. They are lucky that even with the accelerated schedule things turned out better than anyone would possibly have anticipated.

 

[Sapiens]

Hm ok, so the Switch is mainly a handheld and Nintendo has no home-console anymore, is that right?

I don't think we'll really know for sure until a main-line pokeman game is released for it.

 

[maxcriden]

Haha oh man hoping for an exciting Nintendo E3? I guess it's been long enough.

I really hope the new units fix the joycon antenna and dock issues. I could see myself getting one of these things this holiday if so.

Do you mean the dock issue with scratching the screen? I was under the impression that's an exceptionally limited issue in terms of frequency of units affected.

 

[RMI]

Do you mean the dock issue with scratching the screen? I was under the impression that's an exceptionally limited issue in terms of frequency of units affected.

that is the issue i mean. I suspect both the dock and joycon issues only affect a minority of units in the wild, but it would suck to get one with either problem.

 

[maxcriden]

that is the issue i mean. I suspect both the dock and joycon issues only affect a minority of units in the wild, but it would suck to get one with either problem.

Gotcha. I think the JCL issue is actually pretty widespread but I'm terms of affecting the end user it ends up being a moderately widespread problem, lessened by ProCon preferrers and people sitting closer to the TV. With the dock issue my understanding is it's not difficult to get a replacement and you can tell pretty readily if it's defective since when moving the screen in and out of the dock a non-defective dock will show only the bezel touched by the inside of the dock during the process.

 

[TangoAlphaLima]

I hope you're not working in supply chain management. Producing 16 mio units and then only selling 10 mio units to retailers sounds like a very terrible idea. You want to sell close to what you produce, otherwise you have high storage costs. Also, in that case you'd need to scale down production to get inventory levels down; when they are at an acceptable level later on, you need to scale production up again. Yet, that may not be easily possible due to existing contracts with suppliers and would lead to additional costs.

They won't be pleased if they end up with millions too many and have to halt production.

How many millions of PS4s and Xbox Ones do you think are on store shelves worldwide right now? These devices aren't produced on demand, they're mass produced and shipped to distributors and retailers. Only selling 10 million of the 16 million ordered during the next fiscal year might be conservative, but it's not like there won't be millions left unsold at the end of that fiscal year. If they're still flying off store shelves at that point, the Switch will have been wildly successful.

 

[primasaurus]

Hm ok, so the Switch is mainly a handheld and Nintendo has no home-console anymore, is that right?

It's what you want it to be, thats it's beauty

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

They're not produced on demand, but they're not intentionally produced far over demand, such that they find themselves having to stop the presses during a product's active lifetime because their unsold number keeps growing. They might have a glut of supply in an October in anticipation of big holiday sales, but 6 million extra sitting around at the end of March '18 would be bad times.

 

[Crayon]

Do you mean the dock issue with scratching the screen? I was under the impression that's an exceptionally limited issue in terms of frequency of units affected.

There is a hundred page thread that states the dock will "inevitably scratch the screen". The title was never corrected so I'm sure there's a few people misinformed on that.

 

[Malakai]

Lucked out? Lightning in a bottle? Fluke?

If you look at the history, Nintendo had been working on the DS for a while and had already transitioned the GBA successor development (code name Atlantis I think) into the DS. It was very much planned to replace the GBA, they just didn't want to hurt any potential sales of old GBA SP stock. So they said the infamous "third pillar" line to not shoot that product in the foot. It's the same exact situation with the 3DS. I don't see why people want to play off both the Wii and the DS as flukes that Nintendo stumbled into headlong without preparing for it. They are just super sonservative and like to slowly transition between generations with less risky launches. So they undersupply initially and the systems are usually sold out for a bit. Then they ramp production if needed based on sales forecasts using the launch sales as baseline. It's all obvious and sometimes they talk about these strategies explicitly.

That isn't even remotely true. The DS (or at least the idea of using dual screens) was spear headed by Yamauchi and everyone hated the idea at the start. The idea of the dual screen were incorporated into the successor of the GBA.

This is an account from, Satoru Okada, the retired General Manager of Nintendo Research & Engineering:

"Actually, after the SP, we were working on the newest model in this range. The code name for this new Game Boy was IRIS, like the flower. The explanation for this name is simple: since it was for us the fifth generation of Game Boy, we chose the symbol of May (the fifth month of the year). In the Hanafuda playing cards, the month of May is symbolized by the iris. The project was moving forward at a good pace but during the development, something at unexpected happened."

"President Iwata then came to see me[Satoru Okada]. He was obviously bothered and he said: 'l talked to Yamauchi-san over the phone and he thinks your console should have two screens... A bit like the multi-screen Game & Watch, you see?' Everybody is aware of this, but what people do not know is that at the time, everybody hated this idea, even Iwata himself. We thought it did not make any sense."

"Unlike many people in the company, I was not afraid of Yamauchi-san. I had already fought with him over different issues and I also sometimes publicly opposed his ideas. But Iwata turned me down and said 'No, we will still give it a try. See what you can do with [it].' We were both bothered by this, especially since it meant that we had to start all over with our project! So I tried to put my team at ease and I told them 'I have some experience working with double screens, we will give it our best shot and we'll see, don't worry.' It became project Nitro, released in 2004 under the name Nintendo DS..."

Source

Edit 1: IICRC, "Atlantis" was a codename of a protype of the Gameboy Advance. I think the code name was revealed in 1996.

 

[Neff]

Sony has for a decade now failed to be able to compete with Nintendo in the slightest in the portable market. They know better than to try.

PSP actually did very respectable numbers, albeit due to Monster Hunter, Square-Enix exclusives, and piracy. So not a recipe which can be easily (or ideally) replicated.

 

[D.Lo]

I'm not saying they just stumbled into it, but there's no way without the outside impetus of PSP they would've introduced a successor to their fastest-selling system ever only 3.5 years into its existence. They are lucky that even with the accelerated schedule things turned out better than anyone would possibly have anticipated.

Yep, certainly they had a core idea that was a brilliant read on the market, but their hand was forced on the timing.

Same with the Wii to a certain extent, brilliant idea and caught fire, but it also benefited from the others stumbling with RROD, 599 US dollars, and little compelling software for 1-2 years.

PSP actually did very respectable numbers, albeit due to Monster Hunter, Square-Enix exclusives, and piracy. So not a recipe which can be easily (or ideally) replicated.

Yeah it did quite well but had a huge push, and Monster Hunter was a left field megahit (cut down <1M selling PS2 port will become a 5M franchise? who could have predicted that). What were the software sales totals for PSP?

 

[Yoshimitsu126]

Did anyone else just notice Super Mario Odyssey trailer views has passed God of War 4 and has over 17 million views in just over 2 months?

 

[EatinOlives]

Nintendo's back, baby!

Pretty excited what's in store for the console.

 

[Shengar]

The point is, Nintendo is competing with MS and Sony, no matter how people on Gaf try to twist this.

Average Bill walks into the video-games department of a store with 400$ in his pockets.
"Hm, what am I going to buy? This thing that plays games and I can carry it around...or this thing that plays games , those games looking great with my 4K TV? Or the cheaper version with 2 games?", "Or will I spend my hard earned cash on something completely else, something that doesn't play games"

Some people on Gaf should really try the average person's view for once. Imagine telling a non-gamer that you bought a Switch and a PS4/X1 in quick succession. Most people will say: "But why? You just bought a gaming thing 2 weeks ago"

Average Bill isn't someone how had just extra $400 cash in his pocket and blindly walked in to a store not knowing what to buy. Average Bill is the people who just buy the platform where most of his friends play BF or CoD game. 4K TV which cost like a fuckton is a luxury that certainly not something a Average Bill would have in his living room. This shows how your experience have skewed your perspective on what average consumer think. Moreover, despite the differences of information that average people had on gaming industry and hardware, they still have different priorities and thus different value proposition.

The Switch's value proposition is not so complicated that people can't understand the benefits (and tradeoffs) versus a "standard" console.

Exactly. Trying to make direct value proposition in regards to make Switch looks like unappealing product is silly. The Switch is a hybrid console and its portability on itself already put it on different league from other home console. People needs to stop with their own experience not playing on handheld mode to make Switch portable mode looks unappealing or ridiculous argument that it's to expensive for portable device when iPad could costed twice as much.

3DS was Nintendo's worst handheld sales-wise, which, sure, is partly due to mobile eating up more casual players. But we also have to remember that 3DS was also Nintendo's worst handheld in general - in terms of appeal, library, etc. That thing was never destined to sell much more than it has to date. Trying to say Switch will do badly because 3DS was such a contraction compared to DS ignores how much better Switch's first year outlook seems to be.

I think the DS sold badly because the general public sees it as another extended hardware line of the NDS instead of a whole new hardware. It does more better than the Wii U because of stellar software support from 3rd especially in Japan.

 

[Clefargle]

That isn't even remotely true. The DS (or at least the idea of using dual screens) was spear headed by Yamauchi and everyone hated the idea at the start. The idea of the dual screen were incorporated into the successor of the GBA.

This is an account from, Satoru Okada, the retired General Manager of Nintendo Research & Engineering:


Source

Edit 1: IICRC, "Atlantis" was a codename of a protype of the Gameboy Advance. I think the code name was revealed in 1996.

If I got the code name wrong, apologies. But the inclusion of the DS dual screen function wasn't added at the last minute. What you're referencing happened way before it was announced or released. It wasn't a happy accident that the DS was a success

 

[E-phonk]

It's probably discussed in this thread already, but two things:
- this will get them better prices, thus being able to lower the Switch price near the coming holiday season without hurting their bottom line, making them sell more units. It's the kind of positive production cycle they hoped for with Wii U but never got.

- they must have gotten some good reactions the last 2 months from developers - they must know some new projects got approved for development in the next year making them more confident in the succes of their own platform.