Support NeoGAF

[pieatorium]

If Wii U hasn't improved in a year then I think you'll see the exact same comments.

Not that people will agree it should be discontinued, there's always the chance of it doing better depending on what the company can do for it, but you won't see anyone saying the reason it shouldn't be discontinued is that it's #3 but instead other reasons like the possibility of fixing the situation, the harm it would do to the brand, and other real reasons.

This was from last year in relation to the comment made of the Vita at that time.

 

[DaBoss]

It indicates #2 placement in hardware sales, that discontiuation is highly unlikely, and that we indeed shouldn't wish for discontinuation of a #2 product, because by extension of logic it would mean we welcome a single-device future.

You could ask him if he also thinks the Vita has a bright, awesome, wonderful future, or sth along those lines. But it would be redundant. The response to that question is already posted.

Now what's the context of the bolded? He didn't merely state it as a fact.

 

[ragincajun77]

Cute.

Really though, you keep reiterating that the Vita being second place on the hardware chart means something. It's like taking out the actual numbers in the software charts and assuming the positions themselves mean something more. You need context and the context: i.e the raw numbers are not all that healthy for Vita. It's progress from a year ago, but I'll tell you that when the 3DS dropped into the high 20ks, people were saying very similar things about its fate. Now whether the Vita can turn it around 3DS style remains to be seen...

On a sidenote, I'm really sorry to hear of your wife's cancer diagnosis and wish her godspeed recovery.

Thanks for the well wishes. To you and everyone else who posted. I think we caught it early enough so the worst case scenario is a mastectomy.

As for your comments, I think a lot of people misunderstand the point of my post. I was not arguing on behalf of the Vita's market strength. In fact, I explicitly said:

Also, my initial post wasn't meant to express my opinion that the Vita is doing freaking great over in Japan, or anywhere else for that matter. Instead, all that I said is that I find it humorous that every week someone predicts that the Vita will return to sub-10K sales figures within the next few weeks.

Instead, I was pointing out the absurdity of gamers sitting on the sideline cheering for a hardware's death. Even though Nintendo and I don't get along anymore (see side story on previous page of drama) I would never cheer for Nintendo's demise. Healthy competition is good for all gamers regardless of your platform of choice. Although I would never buy a Wii U, unless it was for my kids for age appropriate games, I would never root for its discontinuation. That isn't good for anyone.

 

[SmokyDave]

There's nothing to "read into it". He said explicitly, over and over, that he thinks a #2 position is something meaningful.

In isolation, it would be. As ragin said, people aren't going to develop solely for the leading platform. The second place platform is pretty much guaranteed software support. The problem arises when you take a global view, because then the Vita isn't anywhere near second place.

http://67.227.255.239/forum/showpost.php?p=45288486&postcount=510

The conditions for you to start cheering and calling for WiiU's discontinuation must be getting close?

What are we considering a significant title and how long do we give for it to come out?

If we were underestimating how much of a disaster Vita was are we also underestimating how much of a disaster WiiU is?

Tee hee!

 

[Jinfash]

http://67.227.255.239/forum/showpost.php?p=45288486&postcount=510

The conditions for you to start cheering and calling for WiiU's discontinuation must be getting close?

What are we considering a significant title and how long do we give for it to come out?

If we were underestimating how much of a disaster Vita was are we also underestimating how much of a disaster WiiU is?

That post is painful to read today.

 

[schuelma]

http://67.227.255.239/forum/showpost.php?p=45288486&postcount=510

The conditions for you to start cheering and calling for WiiU's discontinuation must be getting close?

What are we considering a significant title and how long do we give for it to come out?

If we were underestimating how much of a disaster Vita was are we also underestimating how much of a disaster WiiU is?

The first condition is probably close to being met.

The second- a total lack of significant selling titles- is not met yet.

 

[electroplankton]

In isolation, it would be. As ragin said, people aren't going to develop solely for the leading platform. The second place platform is pretty much guaranteed software support. The problem arises when you take a global view, because then the Vita isn't anywhere near second place.

Third parties have a lot of options now, and Vita seems to not be one of them: 3DS, PS3, PS4, mobile and social platforms, even PSP.

GREE et similia have attracted also traditional publishers, that in the past generation they would have developed those games for handheld. Vita is getting some multi with PS3, but not exclusives titles, which are the most important one. Third parties can easily avoid to develop for it.

 

[ragincajun77]

In isolation, it would be. As ragin said, people aren't going to develop solely for the leading platform. The second place platform is pretty much guaranteed software support. The problem arises when you take a global view, because then the Vita isn't anywhere near second place.

Lol, couple of things. Here my original post, unedited:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=57243110&postcount=359

Did I bold that it was #2? No I did not. That was edited later by a responder for sensationalism. The only thing that I did bold was that everything I was saying was my opinion (i.e. not fact).

Second, read my entire post because it contains an important sentence. That sentence says:

"Also, my initial post wasn't meant to express my opinion that the Vita is doing freaking great over in Japan, or anywhere else for that matter. Instead, all that I said is that I find it humorous that every week someone predicts that the Vita will return to sub-10K sales figures within the next few weeks."

 

[FoneBone]

Seriously, did you read this part:

I never said (or thought) that you thought the Vita was doing "freaking great". You do, however, seem to honestly believe that "b-b-but it's #2" is an actual counterpoint to so-called "doom and gloom", which is absurd.

 

[schuelma]

That post is painful to read today.

Indeed. I was 100% wrong on the Wii U post-launch. Of course, I did take Nintendo at their word that Pikmin 3 and Wii Fit U would be out by March, but alas, it did not occur.

 

[Nekki]

Thanks for the well wishes. To you and everyone else who posted. I think we caught it early enough so the worst case scenario is a mastectomy.

As for your comments, I think a lot of people misunderstand the point of my post. I was not arguing on behalf of the Vita's market strength. In fact, I explicitly said:



Instead, I was pointing out the absurdity of gamers sitting on the sideline cheering for a hardware's death. Even though Nintendo and I don't get along anymore (see side story on previous page of drama) I would never cheer for Nintendo's demise. Healthy competition is good for all gamers regardless of your platform of choice. Although I would never buy a Wii U, unless it was for my kids for age appropriate games, I would never root for its discontinuation. That isn't good for anyone.

So now you decide to become diplomatic and "politically correct". I'm sorry, but if your first posts weren't so inflammatory, the whole thread wouldn't have gotten up in arms against you.

If you didn't see the issue from the get-go, at least now it's cleared up.

That post is painful to read today.

The saddest thing is that Nintendo let it get this far.

 

[DaBoss]

Thanks for the well wishes. To you and everyone else who posted. I think we caught it early enough so the worst case scenario is a mastectomy.

:/
Hope everything goes well.

As for your comments, I think a lot of people misunderstand the point of my post. I was not arguing on behalf of the Vita's market strength. In fact, I explicitly said:

But see, you could just state that. You find it hilarious that lots of people get their predictions wrong. Instead you kept touting #2 place. Naturally, people do get their predictions wrong, and will eventually get something right. Those people who are adamant about not accepting they were wrong are the ones you should "laugh at".

Instead, I was pointing out the absurdity of gamers sitting on the sideline cheering for a hardware's death. Even though Nintendo and I don't get along anymore (see side story on previous page of drama) I would never cheer for Nintendo's demise. Healthy competition is good for all gamers regardless of your platform of choice. Although I would never buy a Wii U, unless it was for my kids for age appropriate games, I would never root for its discontinuation. That isn't good for anyone.

Agendas, fanboys, and etc. The same thing is happening with all platforms, even if they are successful. Some people are just "louder' than others.

 

[michaelius]

Gosh, what was I thinking? Of course a Vita turnaround Is inevitable. Sony would never, ever in a million years issue a forecast that presumes otherwise.

While the forecast is lower than i expected it still will be technically higher than 3 milions for Vita since PSP is not going to ship more than 2 milions when it is doing less than 10k units monthly in USA and less than 10k units in Japan on Golden week.

 

[BronsonLee]

Hey guys what's going on in the thre-

....

*slowly turns and walks away*

The first condition is probably close to being met.

The second- a total lack of significant selling titles- is not met yet.

If the second goal isn't met now, it never will be. They have nothing.

It's whatever, though. I'd be more surprised at this rate if someone in this thread got a prediction right for once (Laguna was the last one who got something dead on, IIRC). Just a fact of life. Nobody's a good analyst.

 

[SmokyDave]

Third parties have a lot of options now, and Vita seems to not be one of them: 3DS, PS3, PS4, mobile and social platforms, even PSP.

GREE et similia have attracted also traditional publishers, that in the past generation they would have developed those games for handheld. Vita is getting some multi with PS3, but not exclusives titles, which are the most important one. Third parties can easily avoid to develop for it.

I'm not sure you read my post correctly chuck. I was saying that if the Vita was in actual second place overall, it would be pretty much guaranteed support. It isn't though.

 

[pieatorium]

It really wouldn't, those games combined wouldn't have pushed an additional 2 million consoles (they are going to miss their new forecast by about .5 million aswell.)

The delayed games alone weren't the issue, that's correct, and I think other problems weighed in far more (consumer confusion, bungled promotion, lack of 3rd party support outside launch, higher pricepoints vs PS360, lack of "Wii Sports", etc). I do think they'd have helped maintain more momentum coming out of 2012 though and confidence in the platform would be a whole lot better as a result.

And you think Nintendo's only going to ship 440k consoles in Q1? I'd think the US ZombiU, EU MH3U and JP DQX bundles alone would account for at least half that figure? They might miss the 4m target for sure, but I think you're also overestimating the degree here.

Japan LTD 820k (2 more weeks till end of reporting period)
US LTD 1008k (4 more weeks till end of reporting period)
EU 2012 430k (12 weeks till end of reporting period)

thats what we have as accountable sales

2.258 million

It's highly unlikely that EU sales are even close to US or Japan but lets be extremely generous and give the WiiU 170k for those 12 weeks and put the EU total at 600k. Lets be extremely generous again for japan and give them 60k for the last 2 weeks putting them at 880k. Again a generous US number of 80k for those last 4 weeks for a total of 1088k.

600
880
1088

=2568k units sold to consumers at fy end.


over 400k less units sold than their shipments at the end of December, who exactly is going to be accepting more shipments?

While im digging though some back history i was pretty much spot on here

 

[schuelma]

If the second goal isn't met now, it never will be. They have nothing.

Huh?

 

[Nibel]

That post is painful to read today.

Nothing wrong about being wrong

Almost everybody was caught off guard with Wii U's sales perfomance; I think most of us - me included of course - didn't expect Wii level of sales, but that it does so bad and launched with so many issues (!) is just mind-blowing

While im digging though some back history i was pretty much spot on here

Congratulations - today must be a good day for you

 

[BronsonLee]

Huh?

Well, what titles are selling well for them atm? How did their launch go?

I mean, there's stuff on the horizon, but isn't it like a July release for Pikmin? It'll stabilize later obviously because Nintendo, but there's jack right now.

 

[Nirolak]

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming.

 

[Madouu]

While the forecast is lower than i expected it still will be technically higher than 3 milions for Vita since PSP is not going to ship more than 2 milions when it is doing less than 10k units monthly in USA and less than 10k units in Japan on Golden week.

Well he did say "3 millions or so" so he was pretty much spot on.

You sound like you really don't want him to be right I think your perception of what his stance is in regards of the Vita definitely affected how you reacted to his original post.

Sounds about right. It'll do well off the backs of Monster Hunter and Pokemon.

I'm interested in how Mario & Luigi will do, seeing how the last one did pretty well on the DS.

 

[Flightmare]

Nothing wrong about being wrong

Almost everybody was caught off guard with Wii U's sales perfomance; I think most of us - me included of course - didn't expect Wii level of sales, but that it does so bad and launched with so many issues (!) is just mind-blowing

When people made those prediction we didn't know of all the delays, so it's not surprising how wrong people were

 

[schuelma]

Well, what titles are selling well for them atm? How did their launch go?

I mean, there's stuff on the horizon, but isn't it like a July release for Pikmin? It'll stabilize later obviously because Nintendo, but there's jack right now.

Well the context of that original post was the lack of any game even announced for Vita that could conceivably help things turn around- I didn't see it then and I still don't.

With Wii U, if the rumors are correct and 3D Mario is 2013, I think you can at least make a plausible argument that 3D Mario combined with already announced stuff could somewhat right the ship.

 

[schuelma]

When people made those prediction we didn't know of all the delays, so it's not surprising how wrong people were

I severely misjudged the impact of NSMB U as a system seller, especially in Japan. So in that I was just wrong.

However, like you mentioned, I also foolishly believed that the games Nintendo scheduled for the launch window would actually be there.

 

[pieatorium]

Nothing wrong about being wrong

Almost everybody was caught off guard with Wii U's sales perfomance; I think most of us - me included of course - didn't expect Wii level of sales, but that it does so bad and launched with so many issues (!) is just mind-blowing



Congratulations - today must be a good day for you

There were quite a few saying that things weren't all roses for the WiiU early on what with the UK launch being lower than vita and disappointing December npd and 0 japanese support. This was all drowned out by "But it's better than PS3" as if that was actually a good benchmark or better yet MH and DQ = domination. PS3 was laughed at and called dead in the US when it was seilling 2-3 times more per month than the WiiU is currently.

 

[BronsonLee]

Well the context of that original post was the lack of any game even announced for Vita that could conceivably help things around- I didn't see it then and I still don't.

With Wii U, if the rumors are correct and 3D Mario is 2013, I think you can at least make a plausible argument that 3D Mario combined with already announced stuff could somewhat right the ship.

Ahhh, okey. Now I've got a better handle of what you were rolling for.

3D Mario would probably do it, yeah. I'm honestly confused as to why Mario U didn't push hard; was it just burnout from that style of Mario game?

Nintendo has so many franchises that will propel sales, but they really botched the head start here. Who knows how it'll roll?

 

[Nibel]

I severely misjudged the impact of NSMB U as a system seller, especially in Japan. So in that I was just wrong.

This is what happens when you releae two NSMB games in the same year with a small gap between - that was so dumb and too much of a overreaction from Nintendo; even people like me who love Mario games thought they oversaturated the market. I mean they are still good games, but don't waste your big guns just like that

 

[electroplankton]

I'm not sure you read my post correctly chuck. I was saying that if the Vita was in actual second place overall, it would be pretty much guaranteed support. It isn't though.

Is that really true? Wii was second during 2007-2010 and it still the best-selling home console of the last generation.

 

[serplux]

This is what happens when you releae two NSMB games in the same year with a small gap between - that was so dumb and too much of a overreaction from Nintendo; even people like me who love Mario games thought they oversaturated the market. I mean they are still good games, but don't waste your big guns just like that

I don't think they'll go back to the NSMB series anymore. There will be another 2D Mario platformer, but in a different artistic style.

 

[Nirolak]

On the note of the Vita, I'm not really seeing a ton of signs they intend to directly discontinue it.

That said, I do feel they will likely stop making large budget internal Western games for it relatively soon, since the return on investment must be pretty bad, and then focus on seeing if they can do anything in Japan, and if they can't, let it taper off instead of just straight up axing it.

 

[Father_Brain]

While the forecast is lower than i expected it still will be technically higher than 3 milions for Vita since PSP is not going to ship more than 2 milions when it is doing less than 10k units monthly in USA and less than 10k units in Japan on Golden week.

Breakdown is probably 3-3.5M Vita, 1.5-2M PSP. That assumes that they'll actually meet the forecast, and anyway, PSP continues to regularly outsell Vita in Europe.

I'd guess that the final total will be 3.5-4M for both platforms, but what I said subsequently was that they might be able to ship up to 3.5M Vitas if enough things go right. This forecast fits perfectly with that.

 

[schuelma]

This is what happens when you releae two NSMB games in the same year with a small gap between - that was so dumb and too much of a overreaction from Nintendo; even people like me who love Mario games thought they oversaturated the market. I mean they are still good games, but don't waste your big guns just like that

Agree, plus for pushing a new system it really didn't add anything new. I suspect Nintendo was blinded by the sheers numbers of NSMB Wii, as well as how relatively easy it was to make.

 

[Flightmare]

Is that really true? Wii was second during 2007-2010 and it still the best-selling home console of the last generation.

3rd party core games sell well on vita, so yes it's true

 

[schuelma]

On the note of the Vita, I'm not really seeing a ton of signs they intend to directly discontinue it.

That said, I do feel they will likely stop making large budget internal Western games for it relatively soon, since the return on investment must be pretty bad, and then focus on seeing if they can do anything in Japan, and if they can't, let it taper off instead of just straight up axing it.

The issue I see in North America is retailers continuing to stock the thing

 

[Jinfash]

Indeed. I was 100% wrong on the Wii U post-launch. Of course, I did take Nintendo at their word that Pikmin 3 and Wii Fit U would be out by March, but alas, it did not occur.

I don't agree with you that condition 1 is "close to be met," as it already has been. But I do agree that, barring all the important Fall titles failing to stimulate interest and sales, condition 2 has not been met and probably will never be. Not to the extent of the Vita's state at least, and certainly not from Nintendo's first party studios.

 

[Cosmo Clock 21]

Well the context of that original post was the lack of any game even announced for Vita that could conceivably help things turn around- I didn't see it then and I still don't.

With Wii U, if the rumors are correct and 3D Mario is 2013, I think you can at least make a plausible argument that 3D Mario combined with already announced stuff could somewhat right the ship.

Hasn't 3D Mario historically sold poorly in Japan? SM3DL asides, but that's also on a handheld.

 

[electroplankton]

3rd party otaku games sell well on vita, so yes it's true

Fixed.

 

[schuelma]

Hasn't 3D Mario historically sold poorly in Japan? SM3DL asides, but that's also on a handheld.

The Galaxy games did a million each- even Mario Sunshine did almost 800k.

So no, they aren't multi million sellers, but dwarf any Vita release.

 

[Nirolak]

The issue I see in North America is retailers continuing to stock the thing

Well I think Sony can still get space at Amazon and GameStop even if larger retailers don't carry it.

If they're basically selling it as a portable indie game device in the West at this point, that will still hit their target audience.

 

[DaBoss]

Hasn't 3D Mario historically sold poorly in Japan? SM3DL asides, but that's also on a handheld.

Not really:
http://garaph.info/softwaregroup.php?grid=41

It just sells a hell of a lot more in the west.

Well I think Sony can still get space at Amazon and GameStop even if larger retailers don't carry it.

If they're basically selling it as a portable indie game device in the West at this point, that will still hit their target audience.

How viable is the idea of indie games being system sellers right now? The only one I can think of is Minecraft.

 

[Nibel]

There were quite a few saying that things weren't all roses for the WiiU early on what with the UK launch being lower than vita and disappointing December npd and 0 japanese support. This was all drowned out by "But it's better than PS3" as if that was actually a good benchmark or better yet MH and DQ = domination. PS3 was laughed at and called dead in the US when it was seilling 2-3 times more per month than the WiiU is currently.

I was thinking globally, not just Japan/US specific - when the system was still nowhere available

And like the PS3 the Wii U can turn into a much more attractive system, especially with Nintendo first-party bonanza behind it - in the long run it will do good (you can bookmark this and call me out later), it's just the super-rocky start of it that was surprising

Don't forget that those PS3 numbers were from a pre-smartphone/table time; it's not a quite valid comparison I think since so much has changed since. I could be wrong with this, but if so then I want someone to convince me why

I don't think they'll go back to the NSMB series anymore. There will be another 2D Mario platformer, but in a different artistic style.

I predict that the whole generation after Wii U/3DS will be radically different in terms of hardware and software design; and I agree that Super Mario Bros. will continue in a new form

 

[Madouu]

Hasn't 3D Mario historically sold poorly in Japan? SM3DL asides, but that's also on a handheld.

Both Mario Galaxies are million sellers but then again, they were on the Wii.

3D Mario alone won't do that much, but I think Nintendo are looking into a combination of strong titles to really improve sales. Something like Mario Kart + 3D Mario + other solid software titles during Q3/Q4.

edit: nvm forgot about SM64

 

[Nirolak]

How viable is the idea of indie games being system sellers right now? The only one I can think of is Minecraft.

It's about as viable as the current Western sales of the Vita.

I mean it's obviously a low volume device, so at this point they're just trying to give users content to play, and this seems to be where they have landed.

 

[pieatorium]

I was thinking globally, not just Japan/US specific - when the system was still nowhere available

And like the PS3 the Wii U can turn into a much more attractive system, especially with Nintendo first-party bonanza behind it - in the long run it will do good (you can bookmark this and call me out later), it's just the super-rocky start of it that was surprising

Don't forget that those PS3 numbers were from a pre-smartphone/table time; it's not a quite valid comparison I think since so much has changed since. I could be wrong with this, but if so then I want someone to convince me why

I mentioned 1 EU country in there and EU is the territory it did the worst in.

Don't forget that the PS3 was $600 during this period we are comparing.

The Nintendo first party bonanza was behind the gamecube aswell which the U is selling comparable to (a little behind iirc).

 

[DaBoss]

It's about as viable as the current Western sales of the Vita.

I mean it's obviously a low volume device, so at this point they're just trying to give users content to play, and this seems to be where they have landed.

Yea, that's true, but one who doesn't own a Vita would have to do look into the digital catalog for the Vita and know what is available. They would have to be informed gamers to buy the device for the indie games.


I think Sony is going to market the Vita as a companion handheld to the PS3/PS4. I don't think they will be able to make it something one would like to own on its own. But if one is a PS3/PS4 owner, one would reap the benefits of owning both a Vita and a PS3/PS4, especially if that someone has PS+. I think this will be the best way for the Vita to sell in the west.

 

[Father_Brain]

On the note of the Vita, I'm not really seeing a ton of signs they intend to directly discontinue it.

Agreed on that score, but I think any such decision is at least a few months away, and even if it were more imminent, I'm not sure how much advance planning they'd be doing. I wouldn't expect Hirai, House, Yoshida, Kawano, or Ryan to happily sign off on it (not so sure about Tretton, but that's neither here nor there); it's more likely to be forced on them by some combination of pressures from investors, the BOD, and especially retailers.

That said, I do feel they will likely stop making large budget internal Western games for it relatively soon, since the return on investment must be pretty bad, and then focus on seeing if they can do anything in Japan, and if they can't, let it taper off instead of just straight up axing it.

I wouldn't be shocked at all if Bend's next game gets a PS3 port or ends up DD-only.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Wrong topic.. Bro hurr wii u and Vita doom. Etc

Ouya has fallen by the wayside. It's simply not innovative at this point.

If it released this time in 2011 or 2012, then yeah it would be a fine product, but 2013? I'll wait for a better solution.

 

[metalslimer]

Hypothetical, will Sony really be happy selling at maximum 3 million a year? Or is the opportunity costs for a multibillion dollar company like Sony too high that if Vita drops significantly below that to be worth it. I mean what exactly does Sony get out of Vita in the end of this. I could completely understand if they planned on making another dedicated handheld but there is no way they try again in a dying market. Wouldn't it make more sense to take that money and spend it on hypothetically much more profitable potential PS4 games than blowing money trying to find retailers to stock a niche indie device.

 

[Father_Brain]

Hypothetical, will Sony really be happy selling at maximum 3 million a year? Or is the opportunity costs for a multibillion dollar company like Sony too high that if Vita drops significantly below that to be worth it. I mean what exactly does Sony get out of Vita in the end of this. I could completely understand if they planned on making another dedicated handheld but there is no way they try again in a dying market.

Yeah, opportunity cost (along with retail shelf space) is one of the main reasons why I expect it to be permanently discontinued within a year.

Even if one assumes that they're eking out a profit with software and accessory sales factored in (as famousmortimer claimed in a recent thread), at that sales volume, it's not exactly likely that the ROI is equal to or greater than what they'd get from putting those same resources into PS3/PS4.

 

[Man God]

Until the Otaku market abandons the system for something else the Vita will find a home in Japan for years to come.