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Digital Foundry's evidence-based analysis on Xbox Cloud potential

onQ123

Member
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Ps4 surely will win this gen.


playstation-sonyps3.jpg


220px-PS2-Fat-Console-Set.jpg



vg.consoles.01.lg.jpg
 

jaypah

Member
Spot on article and what most of us have been saying on GAF calling MS bullshit. This is some smoke and mirror shit that MS is using to hide its low specs. I rather go with the Gaikai model for future proofing PS4 where after 10 years, PS4 is just a streaming machine for a more powerful rendering farm in the cloud which can produce next-next gen graphics.

Which is exactly what the old leaked MS PowerPoint presentation showed. "Last console you'll ever need!" or some such shit. They should have just said that upfront instead of acting like the cloud would cover their ass in the meantime.
 
Does anyone remember Microsoft's Donnybrook research project (video here)? I can see similar techniques being employed for cloud processing - things you are focusing on being processed locally in their entirety, the rest updating only occasionally, all the while being faked by cheap "guided behavior" routines on local hardware.
 

hesido

Member
My guess is that Forza will use cloud rendering for prettier replays (basically an improved photo-mode)

Not replays, but yeah, photo-mode does makes sense. A photon-mapped, caustics enabled photo could be rendered on the cloud. I'm running out of ideas here.

OR... They could go with the biggest scam in gaming:

1) Disable locally rendered graphics features when offline

2) Enable them when connected

3) Send garbage data back and forth to try and deceive packet sniffers

4) .....

5) Profit!
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Where was this article when I was trying to explain how it was bullshit yesterday... *sigh
 

TheD

The Detective

1. Not slowest, Sold well due to better design vs the Saturn and much cheaper and larger storage vs the N64.

2. Not slowest, Sold well due to the huge success of the PS1 and because it was more powerful than the Dreamcast, something the xbone does not have to build on.

3. Did well because of it's controls and selling to non gamers that have mostly moved on.
 

Eusis

Member
All this talk of cloud stuff is really... eh... I don't want to lose my internet for a minute and have my game go down to 10 fps.
It'll just stop running because the connection's broken, or if it's doing AI it'd probably just fall back on locally done AI and I doubt there'd be any dip then.

There was an analogy I was taught about computer memory and if I'm remembering it right it's something like this: the CPU's internal cache of memory is like what food you have in hand for when you plan to cook, the cupboard/fridge would be like the RAM, and the grocery store would be like the hard drive. I would think anything on an optical disc would be akin to going a few blocks further to get your food, and the internet would be mail ordering.

Try to fathom cooking a dish while you're mail ordering all ingredients and possibly utensils/pots. Actually, no, it'd probably be more like trying to cook at the same time in two places at opposite ends of the continent. This is why cloud computing literally improving performance is just a fantasy, it's better either when they fully prepare it from the server and stream the results (like ordering a meal to be delivered) or it's something you don't need right away (probably like ordering an ingredient for later... you know, like streaming data in to be processed later similar to off an HD.)
 

onQ123

Member
1. Not slowest, Sold well due to better design vs the Saturn and much cheaper and larger storage vs the N64.

2. Not slowest, Sold well due to the huge success of the PS1 and because it was more powerful than the Dreamcast, something the xbone does not have to build on.

3. Did well because of it's controls and selling to non gamers that have mostly moved on.

The point is that non of these systems was the most powerful.


I would rather PS4 win because it seems like a better system but saying that it's going to win just because it's more powerful is short sighted.
 

TheD

The Detective
The point is that non of these systems was the most powerful.


I would rather PS4 win because it seems like a better system but saying that it's going to win just because it's more powerful is short sighted.

But like for like the more powerful system has an advantage.

It's not complete BS devs will find uses for the cloud computing & free up the CPU/GPU.

No, it is pretty much BS.
You will never be able to do any meaningful off loading of GPU load!
 

onQ123

Member
Err, yes it is. Especially for the GPU.

But like for like the more powerful system has an advantage.

No, it is pretty much BS.
You will never be able to do any meaningful off loading of GPU load!

it could be a compute job that the devs would have offloaded to the GPU but now can use the Cloud leaving the GPU resources free to be used for better graphics.
 

beast786

Member
The point is that non of these systems was the most powerful.


I would rather PS4 win because it seems like a better system but saying that it's going to win just because it's more powerful is short sighted.


I would reckon ps2 was more powerful than dreamcast at launch. I would say also factually more people bought consoles more powerful than wii during this current gen.
 

AlphaDump

Gold Member
It's not complete BS devs will find uses for the cloud computing & free up the CPU/GPU.

I would love to hear how.

Cloud computing in response to your game is entirely different than retrieving data or streaming. Regardless of bandwidth, latency is inherent to your distance (and the speed of light). for every input it has to communicate to a server and calc a "cloud" response. So even if it was 26k txt file, it would still have an inherent delay to communicate to a far away server.


my work with clouds has seen it more of a virtual warehouse of static metadata that can be accessed and retrieved than anything else.
 
The point is that non of these systems was the most powerful.
.

That point is flawed.

The PS1 was by FAR the most powerful system at release in 2004/2005. It killed the Jag and 3D0 immediately, and relegated the Saturn to "historical footnote" largely on the strength of it's 3D output.

by the time nintendo launched the N64 one and a half to two years later, it was too late to stop the momentum the PS1's hardware advantage had built up. It also didn't help that even after launch, the PS1 was still considered by some to be the more powerful console, since the N64 could not pull off the FMV eye candy that the PS1 could (One late port of RE2 aside), and guess what software companies tended to run in advertisements? Janky 3D models, or slick CG cutscenes?

The PS2 was pretty much a repeat. The perceived power and hype of the PS2 was so much greater than the DC that it was killed immediately a couple months after US launch. By the time Nintendo and Microsoft had managed to launch their consoles a year later, the PS2 had too much momentum to stop.

As for the Wii, Nintendo was targeting a completely different audience than Sony and Microsoft were. That crowd was completely abivalent to console power. Among the traditional audience that actually cares about such things (and bought the SNES, Genesis, PS1, DC, Xbox, etc) Nintendo got destroyed. Core Gamers abandoned that platform in droves, as is painfully obvious now that the new audience attracted by motion controls has moved their attention elsewhere. The Wii itself has been dead for 2 years or more, and it's successor is on life support.

The lesson here is that power when combined with smart marketing and a strong library absolutely matters in a console's success. to say anything else is simply historical revisionism.
 

onQ123

Member
Can you give an example of use in a console game?

a Ship in the middle of a big body of water CPU & GPU only rendering & simulating the what's close to you but the things off in the distance are being pre calculated & rendered before you get to them.
 
The point is that non of these systems was the most powerful.


I would rather PS4 win because it seems like a better system but saying that it's going to win just because it's more powerful is short sighted.

That's very true.

ps... Did you ever figure out if those numbers came true from my site?
 

Man

Member
The point is that non of these systems was the most powerful.
At release they were the most powerful.
PS1 delivered 3D gaming to your livingroom, it was a paradigm shift.
PS2 evolved that significantly, it's promise of supercomputer on a chip was the center of the hype.
PS3 is looking to end up #1 this gen in a year.
PS4 outlook is looking really swell right now.

Where's that excellent KevY2K post when you need it.
 
I just don't get how they are going to sell the power of the cloud without always-online. I mean I guess it has potential but how are they going to allow an 'offline' version of a game without severely impairing it?

I dont know one person that turns on his console and doesnt log into Live. And even when you appear offline, you're still online. I really don't see what the issue is here. Really blown out of proportions.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
The article offers the same potential uses for cloud processing that everyone discussing it rationally has offered in the past, including lighting and AI.

But how significant is the improvement, they make it sound like it's not even worth it.
 

Bitmap Frogs

Mr. Community
I dont know one person that turns on his console and doesnt log into Live. And even when you appear offline, you're still online. I really don't see what the issue is here. Really blown out of proportions.

Only 30 million Xbox owners.

The weird thing is that MS knows it already...
 

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
I dont know one person that turns on his console and doesnt log into Live. And even when you appear offline, you're still online. I really don't see what the issue is here. Really blown out of proportions.

by Microsoft's own estimates about 1/3 of Xbox owners never connect to the internet.
 

leroidys

Member
Pretty much this... Anything that would require the GPU would be heavily latent-dependent.

Just a clarification, but this isn't necessarily true. GPUs are increasingly used for certain tasks that benefit from its architecture (synchronous parallel processing vs asynchronous CPU) that don't necessarily have to be latency sensitive.

I would love to hear how.

Cloud computing in response to your game is entirely different than retrieving data or streaming. Regardless of bandwidth, latency is inherent to your distance (and the speed of light). for every input it has to communicate to a server and calc a "cloud" response. So even if it was 26k txt file, it would still have an inherent delay to communicate to a far away server.


my work with clouds has seen it more of a virtual warehouse of static metadata that can be accessed and retrieved than anything else.

This is cloud storage vs cloud computing.
 
The article offers the same potential uses for cloud processing that everyone discussing it rationally has offered in the past, including lighting and AI.

But not in a context that's useful for gaming. The article says it MIGHT be useful for computing background tasks in a game like GTA, but would be nigh-worthless for a game more in line with Gears of War, Halo, etc.

In addition, Microsoft is in the tough position where third parties aren't likely to use the cloud processing abilities for anything tangible, since the PS4 and PC platforms won't be running games that way- leaving any serious display of what the cloud can do solely to microsoft exclusives. and microsoft isn't exactly sitting on a pile of games well suited to showing it off. Cloud processing is completely useless for their heaviest hitting franchises.
 

Soi-Fong

Member
I dont know one person that turns on his console and doesnt log into Live. And even when you appear offline, you're still online. I really don't see what the issue is here. Really blown out of proportions.

While you may not know one person who does not log onto Live, there are many more even here in the United States who have bad internet connections or have no access to the internet at all. Stop being so close-minded and believing in MS' bullshit.

I suggest you read the article again. This "may" be technically feasible now, but the infrastructure won't be in place for at least another decade if not many more.
 
There are many intensive tasks that can be asynchronously offloaded to the cloud.
AI (decision making, pathfinding)
Cutscene rendering

Also providing a server infrastructure for dedicated servers is HUGE to third party devs who aren't big enough to do that.
Having dedicated servers for multiplayer games alone is a huge win in today's market.

In addition, Microsoft is in the tough position where third parties aren't likely to use the cloud processing abilities for anything tangible, since the PS4 and PC platforms won't be running games that way- leaving any serious display of what the cloud can do solely to microsoft exclusives. and microsoft isn't exactly sitting on a pile of games well suited to showing it off. Cloud processing is completely useless for their heaviest hitting franchises.
Microsoft is siting on a pile of 15 unannounced exclusives... Idk what you're talking about.
 

dallow_bg

nods at old men
it could be a compute job that the devs would have offloaded to the GPU but now can use the Cloud leaving the GPU resources free to be used for better graphics.

a Ship in the middle of a big body of water CPU & GPU only rendering & simulating the what's close to you but the things off in the distance are being pre calculated & rendered before you get to them.

I hope you don't really believe this.
 
While you may not know one person who does not log onto Live, there are many more even here in the United States who have bad internet connections or have no access to the internet at all. Stop being so close-minded and believing in MS' bullshit.

I suggest you read the article again. This "may" be technically feasible now, but the infrastructure won't be in place for at least another decade if not many more.

And they wont have access to it just like those same people who apparently dont have internet didn't have access to spartan ops in Halo4. Thats it thats all.
 
Microsoft is siting on a pile of 15 unannounced exclusives... Idk what you're talking about.

This is the problem. Halo and Gears of war are proven sellers. New IPs have a MUCH harder time making a dent. And how many of these are completely open world games in the style of GTA or Red Dead that could feasibly make use of cloud processing for world building? Budget constraints mean the answer here is one, maybe two.
 

Shahed

Member
I dont know one person that turns on his console and doesnt log into Live. And even when you appear offline, you're still online. I really don't see what the issue is here. Really blown out of proportions.

If anything I go out of my way to avoid logging into Live. It takes longer to boot up and start playing a game if you're connected to Live. I only put the Ethernet in once in a while to download a patch or firmware update, or when I buy something from Arcade
 
I dont know one person that turns on his console and doesnt log into Live. And even when you appear offline, you're still online. I really don't see what the issue is here. Really blown out of proportions.
There are 30 million people out there actually doing exactly this.
 

kaching

"GAF's biggest wanker"
a Ship in the middle of a big body of water CPU & GPU only rendering & simulating the what's close to you but the things off in the distance are being pre calculated & rendered before you get to them.
Compelling Old Man and the Sea game action coming to a Xbox One near you in 2014. Powered by the Cloud!
 

AlphaDump

Gold Member

This is cloud storage vs cloud computing.

I know. It was more explaining the cloud, it's a third party server, regardless if it is a computing or storing. ie - Latency will inherently exist.

I'm just curious of the real world capabilities in comparison to PS4. I could see simple text files and configs, like cookies, being sent to your xbone in real time, but streaming gigs of data and having it all be reactional in a computing server cloud that specifically focuses on your game in realtime is hard to wrap my head around, i guess.
 
I know. It was more explaining the cloud, it's a third party server, regardless if it is a computing or storing. ie - Latency will inherently exist.

I'm just curious of the real world capabilities in comparison to PS4. I could see simple text files and configs, like cookies, being sent to your xbone in real time, but streaming gigs of data and having it all be reactional in a computing server cloud that specifically focuses on your game in realtime is hard to wrap my head around, i guess.

If microsoft were rendering the entire game elsewhere, it wouldn't be an issue. The only tough part would be latency between your controller and the server- this is how Gaikai and Onlive work.

The problem here is that microsoft is planning to do SOME things locally, and SOME things in the cloud, and latency and bandwidth differences mean that cloud processing is entirely unusable this way for all but a very limited set of circumstances that aren't latency or bandwidth dependent. The article gives the example of destroying a destructible environment in GOW, and having the lighting react dynamically...several seconds later. It would be jarring as hell.
 

Soi-Fong

Member
If microsoft were rendering the entire game elsewhere, it wouldn't be an issue. The only tough part would be latency between your controller and the server- this is how Gaikai and Onlive work.

The problem here is that microsoft is planning to do SOME things locally, and SOME things in the cloud, and latency and bandwidth differences mean that cloud processing is entirely unusable this way for all but a very limited set of circumstances that aren't latency or bandwidth dependent. The article gives the example of destroying a destructible environment in GOW, and having the lighting react dynamically...several seconds later. It would be jarring as hell.

Add to this, it's funny MS apologists stating that multiplatform games not having much difference since, development is always on the low-spec machine, yet I do not see third parties wasting time trying to get a handle on the cloud or even trying to develop around it.

If they were to put this much work, they might as well just use that extra work and time on the PS4 where it is simpler to take advantage of that power.

I cannot see many developers actually taking time trying to get around latency issues and such. They already have to deal with the Xbox One's godawful architecture and having to work with that.
 
I agree with the article's conclusion. It's possible this could change things, but we need to see the proof. Personally, I do think developers will find a way to use this. It will mean engineering games differently, but the question is, is the cost of this system and the additional resources it provides worth it for the extra engineering costs? That remains to be seen. I'm hoping they will show some games that use this at E3.

I do think the OP's thread title is wrong though. This article is in no way "evidence-based". In reality, it's the opposite. There is a lack of evidence on the subject, which is why DF is saying they need to see the proof and not executives talking about what's possible.
 

AlphaDump

Gold Member
If microsoft were rendering the entire game elsewhere, it wouldn't be an issue. The only tough part would be latency between your controller and the server- this is how Gaikai and Onlive work.

The problem here is that microsoft is planning to do SOME things locally, and SOME things in the cloud, and latency and bandwidth differences mean that cloud processing is entirely unusable this way for all but a very limited set of circumstances that aren't latency or bandwidth dependent. The article gives the example of destroying a destructible environment in GOW, and having the lighting react dynamically...several seconds later. It would be jarring as hell.

ha that is exactly how I am imagining it.
 

Man

Member
I do think the OP's thread title is wrong though. This article is in no way "evidence-based". In reality, it's the opposite. There is a lack of evidence on the subject, which is why DF is saying they need to see the proof and not executives talking about what's possible.
Existing real world examples and technologies is the evidence.
 
a Ship in the middle of a big body of water CPU & GPU only rendering & simulating the what's close to you but the things off in the distance are being pre calculated & rendered before you get to them.

Good point. The cloud will be best for pointlessly simulating things you can neither see or interact with.

There are many intensive tasks that can be asynchronously offloaded to the cloud.
AI (decision making, pathfinding)
Cutscene rendering

Why would you re-render cutscenes on the cloud every time a person plays your game? Putting aside that these cloud servers will not actually be fast enough to do that on demand without looking way worse than what the Xbox One itself could render in realtime, it would be far more economical to just stream a prerendered video files of the cutscene so that you only have to render it once and then let everyone stream the same file. Of course, if you're doing that it's not really cloud computing and you might as well have put it on the disc.

Also providing a server infrastructure for dedicated servers is HUGE to third party devs who aren't big enough to do that.
Having dedicated servers for multiplayer games alone is a huge win in today's market.

Many PS3 games have had dedicated servers but none of the Xbox adherents ever seemed to think that was a "huge win".

Microsoft is siting on a pile of 15 unannounced exclusives... Idk what you're talking about.

They've announced 2 of them already. Also, 15 isn't that impressive. That's a pretty average year of output for Sony Computer Entertainment.
 
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