I think there is no question that Sony can launch the hardware in October. A lot (if not all) of the the games at E3 were running on final hardware, and they have supposedly already ramped up production.
But will the games be ready? A lot of Sony's stuff was looking rough at E3, so the major question is whether they can get the games looking good by October.
And what about online? Will all of their new features be ready to go? Will PSN be set up to handle a big influx of users and activity? Maybe so, maybe not. If people are paying to play Call of Duty and the network is crappy, they will have a nasty backlash on their hands. Will Apps like Netflix and Hulu be ready as well?