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[Randolph Freelander]

So, then if he's saying the PS4 is selling more, it's probably true, but the exact margins may be off considerably, could be 5% more, 10% more, 30% more, or whatever.

Does that seem like an appropriate conclusion to reach from this?

Just from my memory, and when he provides enough predictions, he typically isn't close enough to win GAF's NPD predictions, just to use one measuring stick. Again, from memory, he's middle of the road. That doesn't make what he says any more or less insightful, because obviously he'll have more data points than most anybody here, but collective GAF is usually just as accurate on monthly predictions as Pachter is, I think.

 

[JABEE]

both consoles are sold out. This has more to do with inventory allocation rather than demand.

It could go either way.

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

They got Kutagari-y.



You stole my hat.

You good sir have the greatest avatar on gaf

 

[quickwhips]

Good Launch for both consoles. I think most people knew this before they launched because of yields and price points. MS will have to find a way to keep up.

 

[EmCeeGramr]

There was a faustian pact Iwata made for Wii U sales(he's holding strong to that 9m by March #), but it turns out Iwata doesn't have a soul and Satan is taking it out of his ass.

This universe is actually a simulation; Iwata is currently in 2010, imagining what the world would be like if he went forward with his Wii successor plans. We are all virtual beings in this reality. In 10 seconds (or 1.5 years in our time) Iwata will decide that it's a silly idea and we will cease to exist.

 

[Aquamarine]

NPD's monthly report gets released at December 12th after market close (sometime around 5:00 PM EST - 6:30 PM EST we'll start getting PR).

We don't get leaks until later on (or the following day), though.

 

[Codeblue]

66% of 1080P is almost 720P

66% ahead would imply that Xbone is 33% of PS4.

 

[Visualante2]

150k Wii U is the point where we can start really brainstorming the real cause for the Wii U's demise, like Iwata angering a wizard or mummy back in 2011, or the majority of consumers mistakenly believing that the Wii U is made of live spiders.

Nintendo's silence on new software [going forward] speaks to the WiiU being terminal. If these numbers are correct; I wouldn't even discount Zelda making the hop to whatever replacement they have like Twilight Princess.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

I'd do the former, personally. Dragging it out may damage capital, but if they kill it early, they have NO IDEA how the market will react with, literally a new generation starting two-three years after Wii U came out. It might be an even BIGGER disaster depending on how it's rolled out, reminiscent of Sega and it's retarded amount of consoles before going third party. Nintendo would be better off releasing within a year or so of a potential PS5 or XB2.

They need all the R&D time they can get. They kill it now, what do you replace it with? I doubt they're even at the planning stage of a new console (well maybe, considering how much of a fail it is, but the point still stands)

Pretty much. They can't kill it now and hope to have anything on market anytime soon, and even if they could manage that, it would have hugely damaged their relationship with the people that did/do own the system.

They need to lock down and target the dedicated audience who did buy, please them, keep them buying and locked-in and hope they can eke some kind of profitability out of it, and prepare LIKE FUCK for what comes next. Even if it's just a case of making the most of software on target for 2014, courting indies and keeping that aspect chugging over, and then looking to where they go from there.

 

[Simousse]

I can be wrong, but I am not sure Pachter would share his personal prediction to investors. My guess is he has solid numbers. We will see in three days.

 

[chubigans]

Very surprised that Battlefield and Assassin's would look weaker than expected. Maybe AC3 dented the franchise a bit?

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

150k Wii U is the point where we can start really brainstorming the real cause for the Wii U's demise, like Iwata angering a wizard or mummy back in 2011, or the majority of consumers mistakenly believing that the Wii U is made of live spiders.

Hahahaha ahh man this is great

 

[allan-bh]

Pachter is not good at predictions.

People that follow NPD predictions thread know that.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Why? Everything has been pointing to this happening for months. The only question we had was could Sony meet demand.

Does this include BF numbers?

I suppose when I heard the percentage difference it really rang home

I would've thought MS had hit 900K by the end of November but I guess that's just about a week of sales

 

[Graphics Horse]

This universe is actually a simulation; Iwata is currently in 2010, imagining what the world would be like if he went forward with his Wii successor plans. We are all virtual beings in this reality. In 10 seconds (or 1.5 years in our time) Iwata will decide that it's a silly idea and we will cease to exist.

So that's what those ibm Power 7s were used for.

 

[Giant Panda]

Goddamn, if I were Nintendo, I'd start investing in making a ninth generation console stat that doesn't have a fucking gimmick (AKA a REGULAR controller) and it's a technical marvel.

NO NO NO. It doesn't need to be a regular controller, there's still plenty of possible innovations left for controlling games. The controller just needs to be able to handle all the popular genres well without breaking the bank.

 

[shandy706]

A couple million next-gen consoles in just two weeks of November! That's crazy.

Heck the X1 was only available for 8 days unless he's counting the first week of December too.

 

[Rogue_Ledr]

What I am interested to see is what sales are going to look like next year after the holiday rush is over and both companies can finally create sufficient stock for their markets.

Who will be selling more then?

 

[Syph Medwes]

66% of 1080P is almost 720P

goddamn

 

[Randolph Freelander]

I wonder what Wii U retail space will look like next year. What does Vita look like now?

Vita now might not even be an apt comparison, because there are 2 new entrants. Seemingly, 360 and PS3 would continue to wane, but presumably not fast enough for them to lose space while allowing Wii U to keep it.

 

[Spottiettiedop]

If close to accurate, I wonder how much Sony could have sold in the States, if they chose to only do 13 countries like MS.

 

[McDougles]

Your attempt to downplay is sad. Truth is we didn't need Mr. Patcher to state the obvious.

Look at the thread before you say my silly joke looking into the insight of us at GAF is sad.

 

[LicenceToK1ll]

66% ahead would imply that Xbone is 33% of PS4.

False for example:if100 XO's are sold it follows that 166 Ps4 are sold. 100/166 is 0.6*100=60.2% of the number of ps4's sold.

 

[Graphics Horse]

If close to accurate, I wonder how much Sony could have sold in the States, if they chose to only do 13 countries like MS.

Not a whole lot more, maybe 200k max. they already got the lion's share.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

If close to accurate, I wonder how much Sony could have sold in the States, if they chose to only do 13 countries like MS.

Probably not much more. They already allocated the signifant share to North America. if you sorted allocations descending and took the lowest 10 or whatever countries and shuffled those consoles to the top (even just top 2 or 3), I bet you're not shifting around that many systems, all told.

 

[Log4Girlz]

Let's say he's wrong. Even at 250k units, the Wii U is doomed. That is such an abysmal sales number. This is Nintendo's Saturn. Or more appropriately, Uranus.

 

[EmCeeGramr]

-Black Friday shoppers all "double dog dared" each other not to buy Wii Us while waiting in line

-A prominent celebrity has been appearing on talk shows claiming that "that new Wii controller" will cause autism in children, both current and future, as well as retroactively inducing autism in any adult children

-Iwata and Miyamoto are actually pulling off a Producers-esque scam. Neither will show up to the next shareholder's meeting, and scattered reports in the years afterward will place them in South America where they live off of embezzled billions

-Ol' Otis down at the distribution center for every retailer in America forgot to ship out the Wii U's because he didn't have his dadgum reading glasses on

-Iwata's family is being held hostage and he has to continue to mismanage the Wii U in order to secure their release. If he attempts to signal for help or in any way explain the situation, his family are goners.

-Nintendo is following an ancient spell that can make the Wii U a complete success, but the spellbook clearly indicates that the anguish and tears and frustration of a failing console is the energy needed to produce the result. Revealing the existence of the spell will break the magic, like birthday wishes or shooting stars.

 

[antitrop]

You have to imagine that whatever MS paid EA for Titanfall exclusivity, it probably won't be enough to make up what the game would have sold on PS4.

Whoops.

 

[AniHawk]

I wonder what Wii U retail space will look like next year. What does Vita look like now?

Vita now might not even be an apt comparison, because there are 2 new entrants. Seemingly, 360 and PS3 would continue to wane, but presumably not fast enough for them to lose space while allowing Wii U to keep it.

vita's got its own section at target. it's off the wall and onto racks at gamestops though.

i imagine there will be a 'nintendo section' before long.

if this is accurate, i think they'll either do the gamepadless $200 wii u soon or try something completely different in late 2015. i have to think after a year of shit, they'd be at least considering those two options. the problem is software. i think the wii u might have been ready in late 2011, but software wasn't there. if they follow the wii u up with something else, they can do some multiplatform stuff.

there's a point where they don't sell enough consoles to sell enough games to make enough money back. i doubt 3d world maybe scratching a million worldwide (shipped) is going to be what they need going forward. i thought that pikmin 3 getting to roughly 500k worldwide was a sign of improvement, but it looks like any remaining interest in the system collapsed shortly afterward.

 

[BigDug13]

All Sony needed to do this generation was to reach relative parity in sales with the XBO in the U.S. and UK, the 2 regions that actually favored the 360 over the PS3.

I think no matter the numbers, they're on the right path of at the very least meeting that goal.

XBO is still going to sell just fine, but we are not going to see another 80 million vs 80 million PS3 vs 360 generation this time.

 

[Formosa]

Not surprised about the 2:1 PS4:X1 ratio... Most people will to get a 1080 over 720 any day.

 

[1st Course]

Nintendo:

764K (N64, November 1997)
718K (N64, November 1998)
465K (N64, November 1999)
275K (N64, November 2000)

424K (GameCube, November 2002)
751K (GameCube, November 2003)
350K (GameCube, November 2004)
272K (GameCube, November 2005)

981K (Wii, November 2007)
2040K (Wii, November 2008)
1260K (Wii, November 2009)
1270K (Wii, November 2010)
863K (Wii, November 2011)
420K (Wii, November 2012)

Lowest month: 272K (GameCube, November 2005)
Highest month: 2040K (Wii, November 2008)

Goddamn, the Wii was really something else.

 

[Aquamarine]

Pachter's Accuracy in 2013

Example:
January 2013 - NPD Reporting Month
50. - Pachter's ranking (out of all the GAF predictions)
61. - Total amount of GAF predictions
249,000 - Amount of sales off of the real NPD sales

January 2013: 50./61. Pachter - 249,000
February 2013: 64./72. Pachter - 270,000
March 2013: 46./79. Pachter - 139,500
April 2013: 52./65. Pachter
May 2013: 22./49. Pachter - 32,699
June 2013: 45./61. Pachter - 104,000
July: 43./57. Pachter - 49,000
August: 6./50. Pachter
September: 5./62. Pachter - 159,000
October: 51./51. Pachter - 313,000

 

[Massa]

Goddamn, if I were Nintendo, I'd start investing in making a ninth generation console stat that doesn't have a fucking gimmick (AKA a REGULAR controller) and it's a technical marvel.

Technical marvel is not something that will ever work for Nintendo again. Imo they should be designing a $129-149 next-gen system for launch in 2015. Simple box, simple controller, classic Nintendo games.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

-Nintendo is following an ancient spell that can make the Wii U a complete success, but the spellbook clearly indicates that the anguish and tears and frustration of a failing console is the energy needed to produce the result. Revealing the existence of the spell will break the magic, like birthday wishes or shooting stars.

Maybe. But the Roivas family has gone missing as well as a number of runes.

 

[Anth0ny]

In line with my predictions. Good shit Sony.

 

[anexanhume]

You good sir have the greatest avatar on gaf

Pachter's Accuracy in 2013

Example:
January 2013 - NPD Reporting Month
50. - Pachter's ranking (out of all the GAF predictions)
61. - Total amount of GAF predictions
249,000 - Amount of sales off of the real NPD sales

January 2013: 50./61. Pachter - 249,000
February 2013: 64./72. Pachter - 270,000
March 2013: 46./79. Pachter - 139,500
April 2013: 52./65. Pachter
May 2013: 22./49. Pachter - 32,699
June 2013: 45./61. Pachter - 104,000
July: 43./57. Pachter - 49,000
August: 6./50. Pachter
September: 5./62. Pachter - 159,000
October: 51./51. Pachter - 313,000

To be fair to the Pach, he has pre-announced sales numbers from Sony and Microsoft to go off of. He simply has to guess sales distributions and additional sales in a one or two week period.

 

[Pain]

3 more days till we know for sure!

 

[illmatic22]

-Iwata and Miyamoto are actually pulling off a Producers-esque scam. Neither will show up to the next shareholder's meeting, and scattered reports in the years afterward will place them in South America where they live off of embezzled billions

This is my favorite reason

 

[Aika'svyse]

I Think I must be getting old, this is the first gen where I really don't care who outsells who. I just want then to come out with the best games, I see both as a success so far, one was able to come out with a lower price and get high sells numbers, one was able to come out with a higher price and be really competitive.

 

[AniHawk]

Technical marvel is not something that will ever work for Nintendo again. Imo they should be designing a $129-149 next-gen system for launch in 2015. Simple box, simple controller, classic Nintendo games.

i agree, but it puts their handheld in an awkward place.

although a $100 handheld would be pretty nice.

 

[Can Crusher]

150k for Wii U would be a kiss of death. I doubt it's that low. I doubt Pachter is right on any numbers.

 

[chubigans]

Pachter's Accuracy in 2013

Example:
January 2013 - NPD Reporting Month
50. - Pachter's ranking (out of all the GAF predictions)
61. - Total amount of GAF predictions
249,000 - Amount of sales off of the real NPD sales

January 2013: 50./61. Pachter - 249,000
February 2013: 64./72. Pachter - 270,000
March 2013: 46./79. Pachter - 139,500
April 2013: 52./65. Pachter
May 2013: 22./49. Pachter - 32,699
June 2013: 45./61. Pachter - 104,000
July: 43./57. Pachter - 49,000
August: 6./50. Pachter
September: 5./62. Pachter - 159,000
October: 51./51. Pachter - 313,000

Whoa, what happened in October?

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Technical marvel is not something that will ever work for Nintendo again. Imo they should be designing a $129-149 next-gen system for launch in 2015. Simple box, simple controller, classic Nintendo games.

This. What Nintendo really needs isn't a super powerful box that competes with Sony and MS, it's on the the software side. Their real wildcard platform isn't hardware, it's a revamped storefront and virtual console that is easy to use, cross platform, has a reliable account system and features hundreds of games right from the jump, both classic VC titles from the last 30 years of Nintendo gaming and new games from both indie developers and Nintendo themselves at cheaper price points. Basically stop trying to compete with Sony/MS head on, and instead try and legitimize and incentivize the current sewer where these shitty Android tv systems like Ouya and GameStick are currently slumming it.

 

[SwiftDeath]

You have to imagine that whatever MS paid EA for Titanfall exclusivity, it probably won't be enough to make up what the game would have sold on PS4.

Whoops.

In my mind the lost sales on PS4 (over what MS paid) might not even be the bigger problem

PS4 owners are now going to go to other games to get their FPS fix as such Titanfall 2 will have a harder time breaking through the mindshare if Destiny does super well on PS4

 

[yellow submarine]

XB1 sold 1 million+ to consumers based on XBL numbers, Pac is off the mark.

 

[Crimson_Gold]

XB1 sold 1 million+ to consumers based on XBL numbers, Pac is off the mark.

You do realize that NPD is US only right?

 

[Majmun]

XB1 sold 1 million+ to consumers based on XBL numbers, Pac is off the mark.

He's talking about november.

The 1mln+ number could also include part of december.

 

[Tsundere]

XB1 sold 1 million+ to consumers based on XBL numbers, Pac is off the mark.

Another USA = World guy?

 

[Into]

XB1 sold 1 million+ to consumers based on XBL numbers, Pac is off the mark.

Hello, NPD =/= World

Do not correct someone when you yourself do not grasp such a significant difference.