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[Opiate]

Well I agree, and I did think Nintendo was in the right during the Wii era, but I disagree that the QOL market is going to be any less competitive. Mabbe it's less risky in that it will cost less than launching a new platform, but if this platform fails they will have taken a nice little chunk of development away from the next Nintendo platforms.

Also the writing is on the wall for the end of Wii U with their vague promises.

Absolutely, this isn't really an endorsement of their chosen strategy. I'll just say I have no idea how it will do.

I'm only speaking about the choice to go towards "casuals" instead of focusing on "hardcore" gamers. "Hardcore" gamers have the extreme benefit of being highly predictable and reliable, but the extreme downside of being almost entirely unprofitable. Casuals have the downside of being a market that is still evolving and which is therefore much harder to predict, but has the benefit of real earnings potential.

Given those two choices, I'd pick the latter. That doesn't mean that every approach to the market is a good one, just that going after the market is a good idea.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Stump more or less nailed it.

 

[Griss]

Here's what I got from the meeting last night:
(long series of points)

Agree with almost every single word of that. That was my takeaway from the meeting as well, and I'm extremely worried.

However, you do have to read between the lines a bit. They can't just stand up and say 'Wii U is fucked'. If they know they won't have anything ready for two years or more, what more can they do but lamely carry on pretending it's a good product, even if they're cancelling things left right and centre behind the scenes? Sure, we can all see that the emperor has no clothes, but if the emperor actually has no clothes to wear then what can he do but pretend?

As for the 3DS it's hard to know whether they're blind to the huge problems they're facing there or whether it simply wasn't appropriate to add to the blizzard of bad news around the conference.

What lends credence to the idea that they are actually blind is the idea that a smartphone app will help make people buy hardware in any way. You're not going to siphon off a percentage of the smartphone users by marketing to them. They're gone. The plan is patently ridiculous, and unless they actually have games on there, there's no reason for a non-Nintendo owner to ever download the thing.

I also completely agree on their potential lack of ability to compete in the health and edutainment sectors. Wii Fit U is not a good product, and it shows fundamental problems in their approach to that kind of utility/health software. As you say, Western companies are more agile and aggressive, and importantly more in-tune with what a western consumer expects from such products. Which is typically an emphasis on weight loss and fitness rather than wellness.

I've finally lost all faith in Iwata. I think the next two years will be a nightmare as the WiiU fails to recover and is pulled from retail while the 3DS declines faster than they expect. After that, a lot will ride on the 'Qwol'. If that doesn't work, they are super fucked.

If I was in charge, I'd replace Iwata right now. Everyone gets old and loses their touch at some stage. It's not a tragedy. He's a lovely guy who had some massive successes. But his strategy going forward is muddled at best, and in the short term there's nothing but pain.

EDIT: As you mentioned, their one hope of salvation might be to get established in the BRIC countries at competitive prices before their rivals do. Those countries are culturally behind the west, and there is the possibility that dedicated games consoles could still find success there. Of course, there's the possibility that all those people skip to cheap phones as well, but they need to try to 'crack that nut', as you say.

 

[metalslimer]

I agree with this. What worried me most about this conference is Nintendo's seeming inability to address fundamental Wii U and 3DS complaints...especially Wii U's considerable failure all throughout 2013.

They deflected concerns with their strategies for FY3/2016 with QOL and unifying platforms / NNID to some degree, but it's FY3/2015 that worries me.

What's incredible to me is that it actually worked. Iwata basically said nothing of note will happen this next FY and delayed everything they have to do the next FY. Their Wii U strategy is to develop NFC games and games for the gamepad. We'll see how low their projection is for hardware shipped this next FY,

 

[Mpl90]

Answers bolded

Here's what I got from the meeting last night:

- Nintendo thinks the 3DS is doing fine. They didn't mention it. It's clearly the stronger of their two pieces of hardware, there's no denying that. But I don't think it's correct to assert that it's not a cause for concern. Even with Pokemon's strong results out of the gate, there's been significant overall software erosion in both first-party and third-party categories. I think this is a risk. It's a risk because less licensing revenue from third parties means Nintendo has less money to cover their burn rate or hardware R&D losses. It's also a risk because their own software costs more to make and sells less overall. That's not a trend you want to continue going forward. To me, the Wii U's failure seems relatively minor in comparison to some of the generation-over-generation structural comparisons for the 3DS. I would be worried about that going forward.

The meeting was much more towards mid and long-term perspective, that's why they didn't talk that much about 3DS and Wii U, I feel. And also because it's a product that's going to enter its fourth year on the market soon, so I don't know how much you can change, except for games pricing. Maybe, it'll be a focus of another Investor Meeting

- Nintendo thinks there's no real problem with what the Wii U is, but rather with how they've taken advantage of the Wii U. They've cited their failure to communicate the GamePad's value and their failure to deliver must-have software. It does not seem clear that they've acknowledged any possible weakness in the GamePad conceptually. I think their first product to "emphasize the GamePad" being Mario Kart, and their "emphasis" being that the Wii U apparently boots up faster than your TV (which is clearly not true) suggests that there are conceptual weaknesses in the product. It feels like kicking the can down the road a little. They've repeatedly said before that when they do poorly "it's because they didn't release software that consumers valued" and to do well they will "release software that consumers value". This seems like a pretty vague, almost circular definition. The trick is to figure out why consumers did not value the software, and Nintendo doesn't seem as clear about that. I think there are real challenges at the software pricepoint they're at. I think there are also game design challenges, even with some of the amazing games they're releasing.

What said about 3DS, but also the high probability Nintendo themselves know the platform's not going to be big, at all. Iwata himself stated that "a price-cut can't change things either", so we're basically seeing them trying to extract as much as possible before the generational shift

- I think NFC games are interesting and obviously a genre that's proven lucrative. I have skepticism they're going to materially change the platform for several reasons. The first is that those games are already available on Wii U, but also on every other platform. There's nothing about the Wii U gamepad's NFC reader that can't be accomplished with current implementations. I do think Nintendo can have software success with an NFC game. The other risk is that figurine games require significant retailer buy-in, which I don't think will be a problem in the US, but in countries where the Wii U has already lost retailer stock space I'm not sure they'll be able to find sufficient support for NFC stuff.

I suppose the NFC software will try more to create a base of people buying those figurines, and less something that can change the platform. Again: it's seemingly time to do what's possible to earn a profit (if possible) from Wii U, not to make it a decent success either, since it'll never be, whatever comes out for it

- To me, as a briefing, this basically felt like a company saying "We're doing ok. We don't need to make major changes. We're working on stuff for the future, and we've got great stuff coming down the pipeline." It did not feel like a company unveiling a bold new direction for the future in the face of massive investor pressure and worry about the company's continued stability.

I'll humbly say I disagree: what said about NNID becoming a center of their strategy, bigger focus on emerging markets, licensing, and the presentation of the new business sound, all together, like big changes compared to the past. Obviously, how they'll exectue them is going to be the key, as always...but, intention-wise, it's not so "we're doing ok" as you think: talking so much about how things will change in the future means they start knowing they're not doing ok now, but can't do so much to change that now

- The idea of moving to accounts and a real networked ecosystem is a good thing, no doubt. Everyone supports that. It's a little baffling that it was presented in philosophical terms, as though it was discovered conceptually but still years away from being implemented in reality. The rest of the world moved to device-agnostic content networks a long time ago. iTunes at the turn of the millennium. Gaming in 2006-2008.

All those words about changing premium pricing model through NNID sounded more than just philosophical to me.

- The "we're going to market our stuff on smartphones and then people will buy our hardware" claim makes no sense. Sorry. "We're going to connect with our customers on smartphones and then people will buy our hardware". The difference between marketing and connection is that consumers don't like marketing but do like connection? Anyway... I don't think providing another outlet for consumers to get info and updates is a bad thing. But I also don't think it's going to materially change things. Like, I feel like the problem is that the hypothetical consumer on a subway checking their Nintendo app is actually satisfied with the device they're using and carrying. The games and non-game options they have in the palm of their hand. Right, like I think that's the actual problem with Nintendo's offerings right now and this doesn't resolve that.

It's certainly going to be interesting to see what they mean with the mobile strategy. Providing another outlet for customers is certainly good, but it's to be seen how they'll execute that, and what they're going to do outside and inside of that. Especially HOW this service will be

- I think their efforts to expand into developing markets will pay massive dividends. Sony has done very well in EMEA markets. BRIC are the great nut every business is trying to crack. I totally support that. And licensing is always good, but mostly the frosting on top of a vibrant product business rather than a business on its own. Still, these are good ideas.

Nothing to add

and then...
- Health and Lifestyle products. First, I think diversifying is a good thing for Nintendo. I think having other streams of revenue is a good thing. I think there's a lot of money to be made in health and lifestyle products. But I have pretty significant reservations about what Nintendo is talking about. I don't think releasing another hardware device with another software ecosystem is diversifying. And to be clear, that's 100% what they're talking about here. They're not talking about releasing paper calorie diaries or resistance bands or paint-by-numbers kits. They're clearly talking about something that you carry around with you, even if it's "not wearable".

- So they're either talking about a self-contained device or they're talking about a hardware platform with software. Self-contained devices are dead. Dead dead dead. No one is making them in any product category anymore. The growth market is in devices that communicate with each other. The fitness market is all about smart monitors that communicate with your smart phone and each other and allow you to export and remix data and put it through rich web services. My worry is that if Nintendo enters this market, they won't have a best-of-breed product because they'll basically be re-inventing the wheel. And if they tether stuff to a new piece of hardware, why not just get fitness products that work with the smartphone you already have? I own Personal Trainer: Walking. It's neat. But today I wouldn't buy it because for the same money or less I'd get a better pedometer with more flexible data reporting tethered to devices that are more well suited for recording and analysis. That's my worry.

- Nintendo's approach to fitness stuff historically has been a very eastern "wellness" type approach. Wii Fit emphasizes "balance", rather than fitness. If you try to compare Wii Fit to other fitness games, like EA Sports Active or Zumba or Your Shape or the Kinect Nike Fit game, you'll see the difference immediately. The pedometer and the emphasis on steps and walking is similarly a sort of wellness approach. They released Face Training (Facening), which is based on some sort of Japanese beauty fad where you make funny faces in the mirror and you become more relaxed and beautiful. I can't comment on whether that approach will do well in Japan long-term. But I don't think it will do well in the US or Europe long-term. To the extent that there's a demand for "Wellness" type approaches, I think Yoga is pretty much the only eastern technique that would have much resonance over here. Wii Fit was a blue ocean product for sure--no one had quite synthesized fitness software in that way. But now there are dozens of competitors, and many of those competitors work with leading fitness companies and experts and I think Nintendo would be at a disadvantage today, in 2014.

- I also read a lot about educational products. Learning to draw, books and reading, early childhood education, tactile experiences for both infants and children with disabilities who need sensory stimulation, etc. I do not believe Nintendo would make a best-of-breed product in these categories. There's been a lot of art options emerge over the last few years. One great thing about smartphones and tablets is that developers talk to each other, learn from each other, iterate quickly. A lot of the first-generation best software on tablets has been dethroned by subsequent software. A lot of services build on each other and integrate with each other. Lots of applications support exporting to Dropbox or whatever. It's very handy. For books, there have been a lot of companies doing book sales, and a lot of initiatives in the area of childrens and educational books. I trust Apple and Amazon's abilities to go out and meet with publishers and developers and build systems that encourage content more than I trust Nintendo's. It's difficult for me to see a product niche within the broader lifestyle category that is not already filled with strong competitors who strike me as having a better foundation to compete.

- Where does Nintendo think their casual market went? Okay, so people bought Brain Training and Wii Fit and Nintendogs and Big Brain Academy and Personal Trainer: Cooking and Personal Trainer: Walking and 100 English Books and whatever else Nintendo released. Those were all successful products. But demand in that market segment just evaporated. Where does Nintendo think those people are today? Why did Nintendogs on 3DS tank in comparison? Why did Brain Training tank so badly it can't even get a retail release in a major territory? Why is Wii Fit an also-ran, as we'll see over the coming months? What happened to the demand? This is an important question because the idea of launching all these products and more similar products as part of a new company approach is predicated on understanding why they left and how to get them back. The 3DS costs a little more than the DS did, but not much. So it's not hardware buy-in. I believe it's because those people either are not conceptually interested anymore, or are but have found more satisfying product options elsewhere. So the first question I'd ask about launching new non-game focused products or casual game focused products is--how are we solving the problem that we have in the first place?

- I legitimately believe that Japanese companies who are Japan-focused first but need global sales are going to have an increasingly difficult time penetrating the US market. The Silicon Valley tech culture is incredibly fast-paced, competitive, and enormous. The old ways of developing a business don't stand up to it, and Japan doesn't have a similar area or process for incubating aggressive start-ups (in part due to increased employee retention and less turnover in the employment culture there). I'm not an expert when it comes to Japan, but if I were a Japanese company I'd be either thinking global or thinking a lot more local and giving up on global expansion.

I am very open to Nintendo making products that aren't games. I am very open to Nintendo making products that don't target me. But I am not convinced they understand the challenges they face, and I am not convinced based on the preliminary information they're offering that their secret master plan that they'll reveal later is likely to be a home run. I leave open the possibility that it'll be a single or a double. I am interested both as a consumer and in terms of their ongoing business success, and neither angle is super promising to me right now.

I believe in what tehrik said: they didn't want to talk about it now, but later...however, financial results forced them to start talking about that now, even if without so concrete words, given they don't want to unveil everything yet. Still, the "not-wearable" part sounds more like a service, to me: something that, with a monthly fee, can be accessed across a big range of devices, like smartphones, tablets, tvs and Nintendo consoles as well. That can qualify as a not-wearable product, IMHO. Especially considering their leapfrog from console to not-wearable. Certainly there are risks and obstacles, but I feel that, if done right, it could be something big for them. And I think there's already some know-how for those things after years and years of BT, Wii Fit and what not, and I'll admit...I want to think they know how to implement that in order to make the whole QOL product as successful as they want.

 

[hunnies28]

Instead of Wii U, I would like a DS VC on my 3DS.

Still reading, maybe it was mentioned?

 

[Effect]

Was sick last night so I really couldn't focus completely on what was being said. I thought the idea of a third pillar focusing on quality of life items makes sense as a way of diversifying Nintendo's offerings as a company. On that front I have no problem. I'm even looking forward to seeing what they are going to reveal.

3DS they think is fine and it is. However it underperforming compared to the DS should be a concern and I hope it is. However as far as Wii U is concerned I've read nothing on how they plan to address the problems it's having. In fact what I did read suggest they think things are going to be better...... just because. Not that they have to make any differences in approach, who they target, etc. Was a doubling down on what they've been doing which is crazy. The release schedule is still barren as well from what I can tell with a number of titles simply having no dates still.

I was waiting until this meeting to see how things were going to go before I started to shift my attention else where and decide how I was going to spend my gaming budget in the foreseeable future. I'm still undecided where it's going to go but I do know less money is going to be spent in Nintendo's direction. The meeting and Q&A just confirmed to me I'm not the customer Nintendo wants or has any desire in attracting or even maintaining. I'm a bonus. Someone that buys their products because I've always bought them and without them having to address me directly. If I am someone they want and are trying to attract I just honestly don't see it. I have the Wii U. I like it and I still say I bought into their initial sales pitch which they are likely backing away from. I will buy games that interest me as they come out but I really don't believe I'll be there for their next console or even perhaps their QoL products.

I do agree that the QoL direction is likely to have a more eastern focus. While I'm curious about it I do wonder if it will even interest me in the end. The difference between wellness and fitness was indeed clear on the Wii. I ended using EA Sports Active far more then I ever did Wii Fit or Wii Fit Plus. Primarily because I didn't feel Wii Fit really was doing anything for me or helping me accomplish want I wanted to do. However Sports Active did for a number of months. It does make me wonder just how much of a success Nintendo's approach will be in a world where Zumba exist and is extremely popular in the west. Even if the QoL products are well made and work will they even be attractive outside of Japan if they are primarily being designed, no reason to think they aren't, with the Japanese market in mind. Something Nintendo seems to have no desire in changing.

 

[Opinionatedfish]

So, we'll see Nintendo Infinity at E3?

Personally, I feel that the Nintendo Game Pad needs a slight redesign. I need two cameras in it. One facing inward and one facing outward. I also want three NFC chips in the unit so that I can do things like this. Also, I want it to be tap payment compatible with tap compliant credit cards. (No reason...)

 

[Rocky]

Instead of Wii U, I would like a DS VC on my 3DS.

Still reading, maybe it was mentioned?

The 3DS already has that.

 

[metalslimer]

I believe in what tehrik said: they didn't want to talk about it now, but later...however, financial results forced them to start talking about that now, even if without so concrete words, given they don't want to unveil everything yet. Still, the "not-wearable" part sounds more like a service, to me: something that, with a monthly fee, can be accessed across a big range of devices, like smartphones, tablets, tvs and Nintendo consoles as well. That can qualify as a not-wearable product, IMHO. Especially considering their leapfrog from console to not-wearable. Certainly there are risks and obstacles, but I feel that, if done right, it could be something big for them. And I think there's already some know-how for those things after years and years of BT, Wii Fit and what not, and I'll admit...I want to think they know how to implement that in order to make the whole QOL product as successful as they want.

Except the success of those products are somewhat irrelevant to today's market. What I fear is that Nintendo seems to think that all those markets exist that bought all of their Touch Generations products and just don't want a dedicated gaming platform.

 

[The Technomancer]

Actually...thinking about it I can see the whole "leap past wearable devices" thing being a software solution.

lol

It would finally be "Nintendo on smartphones"

 

[Griss]

I was waiting until this meeting to see how things were going to go before I started to shift my attention else where and decide how I was going to spend my gaming budget in the foreseeable future. I'm still undecided where it's going to go but I do know less money is going to be spent in Nintendo's direction. The meeting and Q&A just confirmed to me I'm not the customer Nintendo wants or has any desire in attracting or even maintaining. If I am I just honestly don't see it. I have the Wii U. Will buy games that interest me as they come out but I really don't believe I'll be there for their next console or even perhaps their QoL products.

Yeah. And this is because Nintendo is only interested in high margin products. Gamers won't support those high margin prices anymore, so Iwata is off chasing a blue ocean where they can sell cheap hardware and software with huge markups on the understanding that if it takes off, it's Wii/DS 2, fitness boogaloo.

It drives me crazy that they won't commit to competing at lower margins by hiring more employees and trying to earn back that money through volume of sales, but it's just not their way and it never has been. This is why people consider Nintendo 'cheap'. Because they are. Sometimes it's genius, but it means they can't and won't compete properly in either the hardcore gaming market or the smartphone market as they currently are.

My question to Iwata is... what happens when there are no high margin markets left in the software/peripheral business that you can try? Are you going to just shut down the company? Why not just fucking invest some of that warchest in making a better product rather than spending $1.2 billion buying shares to keep people happy and cover your own backside? One day they are going to be forced to compete at low margins in some market, whether it's mobile or fitness or elsewhere. I thought today might be the day that Iwata mentioned that, but no. 'Stay the course while we search for our new Hyrule', to use a Wind Waker analogy.

 

[Aizu_Itsuko]

Nintendo had all the time and the motivation in the world to find a way to capture people's imagination with the GamePad and so far they have not been able to come up with anything. The next Donkey Kong shows a blank screen ffs.

It's a dead weight. Unles they have some awesome ideas for it they decided not use until now (yeah, right), I think it's time to just drop it.

 

[Griss]

I believe in what tehrik said: they didn't want to talk about it now, but later...however, financial results forced them to start talking about that now, even if without so concrete words, given they don't want to unveil everything yet. Still, the "not-wearable" part sounds more like a service, to me: something that, with a monthly fee, can be accessed across a big range of devices, like smartphones, tablets, tvs and Nintendo consoles as well. That can qualify as a not-wearable product, IMHO. Especially considering their leapfrog from console to not-wearable. Certainly there are risks and obstacles, but I feel that, if done right, it could be something big for them. And I think there's already some know-how for those things after years and years of BT, Wii Fit and what not, and I'll admit...I want to think they know how to implement that in order to make the whole QOL product as successful as they want.

But the image they showed depicted them 'leapfrogging' mobile phones, suggesting that it's not simply an app or system of connected apps. If it is, how on earth are they going to make money on that when that market is already congested and already sells for the low low price of 'free'? How can they consider that 'leapfrogging' anyone?

No, this being Nintendo it must be a peripheral of some sort. It'll repurpose existing technology, be simple to make and be able to be sold at a huge profit. That's what they've had success with in the past, it's what they want to do. The question is what the hell kind of form that peripheral could take that isn't wearable and isn't already out there in the market.

I gave my guess here, but I have no confidence in it at all.

 

[metalslimer]

But the image they showed depicted them 'leapfrogging' mobile phones, suggesting that it's not simply an app or system of connected apps. If it is, how on earth are they going to make money on that when that market is already congested and already sells for the low low price of 'free'? How can they consider that 'leapfrogging' anyone?

No, this being Nintendo it must be a peripheral of some sort. It'll repurpose existing technology, be simple to make and be able to be sold at a huge profit. That's what they've had success with in the past, it's what they want to do. The question is what the hell kind of form that peripheral could take that isn't wearable and isn't already out there in the market.

I gave my guess here, but I have no confidence in it at all.

But this is also focusing other QOL aspects, so it can't just be a balance board with a smartphone app.Unless their quality of life platform will actually be a set of products.

 

[Griss]

But this is also focusing other QOL aspects, so it can't just be a balance board with a smartphone app.Unless their quality of life platform will actually be a set of products.

You don't think you could sit your baby down on the balance board and have him play some edutainment games by wobbling all over it?

You're probably right, and he did say it might not be something you use in the living room, but it's my best guess at this time. It just feels like everything bar subdermal implants has already been done, so I'm guessing it won't be as revolutionary as they make it sound.

What about a fitness device that sits in your car, and analyses your breathing and shit every time you get in? Then you call out your weight to it and it logs it. It gives you points for not crashing the car, and plays number games by voice with the kids in the back seat. At this stage, nothing would surprise me.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Still, the "not-wearable" part sounds more like a service, to me: something that, with a monthly fee, can be accessed across a big range of devices, like smartphones, tablets, tvs and Nintendo consoles as well. That can qualify as a not-wearable product, IMHO. Especially considering their leapfrog from console to not-wearable. Certainly there are risks and obstacles, but I feel that, if done right, it could be something big for them. And I think there's already some know-how for those things after years and years of BT, Wii Fit and what not, and I'll admit...I want to think they know how to implement that in order to make the whole QOL product as successful as they want.

Stop me when you disagree:

Companies should do the kinds of things that they're best at. I'm not an artist, so it stands to reason that my efforts to break into the art world would be met with failure. I don't have the kind of creative or visual intelligence to do well in that field. Likewise, it would probably be unwise for me to start up an airplane manufacturing company, because it seems like making planes would be really expensive so I'd need a lot of upfront capital and I'd also need to hire people who know things about airplanes and manufacturing and everything else. Sometimes a big company with enough capital can expand into a new sector if they are aggressive with hiring, attract talent, etc.

And the same is true for big companies. If Intel decided to start an app store (they did), I'd expect it to fail (it did) because Intel is not really a content company at its core. It's an excellent engineering firm. They probably hired some people for the App Store, but they certainly didn't make waves with their hiring or put emphasis into it.

Now, clearly Nintendo makes excellent and imaginative software. There's no doubting that. So if someone said "Nintendo's new strategy is to emphasize software", I think that would be a good move. Hold up, I told Nintendo to emphasize software and their response was that they're best at hardware+software. We'll put that aside and assume for a second you're correct and the "QOL" business is software and service oriented.

Well, is Nintendo's core competency making rich network services? You tell me. They outsourced Swapnote (now mostly shut down because they lack the capacity to manage it or deal with the first minor PR issue they had with it), external companies helped with Miiverse which itself was a rough around the edges launch, Pokemon Bank is a simple CRUD website and launching it brought down their whole network and required a pretty amateur hour rescheduling of the product. They outsource their web browser (poorly, too, who the hell thinks NetFront is a viable option today). They don't have a web-accessible eShop. They used GameSpy for matchmaking and other services for the original Wii. They have never ever dealt with or been able to deal with hacking or cheating in any of their online games. None of their netcode has been notably good. So based on Nintendo's history, do you think Nintendo would be well suited to really aggressively go after building rich network services? That's what you're proposing they're doing.

Now, let's again assume you're correct and it's software. Let's assume Nintendo does a great job delivering. How is this a blue ocean? Name a lifestyle thing you think fits or is consistent with what they would do? Personal Trainer: Cooking was pretty cool, I bet they're release a cooking and recipe service. Here's your competitor #1, whose free application is wildly popular on iOS and who is owned by Conde Nast, one of the biggest publishing and magazine companies in the world with decades and decades of experience selling cooking and recipe content. Maybe they'll get into knitting. Knitting is pretty cool, very popular among hip young crafty types. Ravelry.com--enormously popular. Maybe they'll launch a sell-your-creative stuff marketplace? Etsy. Maybe they'll do a a diet tracking or calorie counting or exercise website? There are literally hundreds of these. Maybe they'll partner with a major fitness brand? Who? Microsoft is partnered with Nike who also makes products designed for iOS; Majesco has the Zumba license and no one cares anymore. Gold's Gym has already partnered with fitness software. Xbox One sells Beachbody Insanity and P90X stuff. There's tons of CrossFit software. There's tons of software offering exercise videos, exercise plans. Have you ever heard of Zombies, Run!? It's a wildly popular iOS software where you go jogging with headphones on and occasionally your music is interrupted by zombie noises so you feel scared and run faster. It's part game, part entertainment experience, part fitness. You want to sell books? Project Gutenberg has the contents of 100 English Books for free. So does Kindle. Nook. Libraries all across North America. the iBookstore. We have hundreds of competitors in that field. Want to draw? Tayasui Sketches, Inspire, Procreate, Paper, Art Set, Inkist, SketchBook Pro, ArtRage. I don't even draw, and these are all programs I'd had on my iPad. Want to keep a journal? EverNote. Want to keep a diary of the meals you've eaten? Hundreds of services. Want to keep a diary of the places you've been? FourSquare. Want to list and review beers you've consumed? Untappd. There are social networks and apps for literally everything you can do at this point. All of them have popped up in the last 5 years. That's what's changed between Nintendo's big successes in these fields and today. Half of these programs sync with each other and with Dropbox and with web services. Almost all of these have web services, communication elements, sharing and social elements. So I don't see a lot of uncontested territory in lifestyle stuff.

I'd be happy to go tete-a-tete in literally any product category. None of this is to say that Nintendo couldn't make a competitive entry in some of these categories, but rather to stress that this isn't a blue ocean, it's not a safe space, and I think they'll find the competition even more fierce because the barrier to entry is low and Silicon Valley startup culture and the app revolution has brought an insane bounty of development onto the scene. Things have changed. It's a big deal.

Someone here said that Nintendo's QOL stuff felt like a CES briefing. I agree. CES is a January trade show in the US for people who make electronics and software services. There are tens of thousands of products shown every year. And every year big companies talk about their vision of how they're going to change the future by entering "untapped" (really tapped by dozens of products and services) and none of them ever deliver. It's all philosophical talk.

CES has an annual awards vote. They have a category for Health and Fitness. There were 17 nominees this year. A tinnitus solving hearing aid. A smartphone/3G enabled blood glucose monitor. A pill box that knows when you've fucked up. A sensor that tells if you have pre-concussion head injury brain damage. A body fat and muscle analyzer. A basketball that reports data over wifi to help you improve your game. A watch that can track people with dementia so they don't wander off. Watches that record your gps position to track your running, count calories, measure your heart-rate, respiratory rate, provide you with coaching on your running technique. And most of these devices are made by companies with more money than Nintendo who have been doing this for longer.

I have no idea if you were ever interested in lifestyle products or services before last night. It's ok if you weren't, of course. But I'm just saying if you weren't and you're under the illusion that people aren't already doing pretty much every permutation of hardware and software and services, well, that's wrong. They are. They're huge competitors. I'll also add that any service being "accessible on Nintendo consoles" is useless. No one wants Nintendo's current console. That's the whole point of diversifying. By this E3 the Wii U will have at best the 6th largest active install base among consoles. Lower if you include mobile. Lower still if you include the AppleTV and various SmartTV platforms. It'd be like trumpeting that your software even works on Symbian or BlackBerry.

 

[Version 3.0]

DS games on Wii U? I'm on board!


...I wonder which 2 or 3 games we'll be blessed with over the next 3 years.

 

[Dimentionalist]

This. It's fucking painful to read. He just doesn't get it.

I honestly thought the failure of the Wii U would be the slap in the face he needed. I guess not!

My thoughts exactly. I kept shaking my head and saying "no, no" to myself while reading the tweets from the investor's meeting. It seems like they're trying to further isolate themselves with the Wii U instead of embracing the meaningful changes that the industry has undergone over the past few years, while simultaneously not understand what put the Wii U in its current predicament in the first place.

 

[btkadams]

The 3DS already has that.

i think he means digitally, not using carts. it does seem like an odd omission. i'd buy digital ds games for my 3ds.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

You don't think you could sit your baby down on the balance board and have him play some edutainment games by wobbling all over it?

You're probably right, and he did say it might not be something you use in the living room, but it's my best guess at this time. It just feels like everything bar subdermal implants has already been done, so I'm guessing it won't be as revolutionary as they make it sound.

What about a fitness device that sits in your car, and analyses your breathing and shit every time you get in? Then you call out your weight to it and it logs it. It gives you points for not crashing the car, and plays number games by voice with the kids in the back seat. At this stage, nothing would surprise me.

For a quick bit of perspective, Google X in the past year has debuted self-driving cars, internet weather balloons, and contact lenses that measure your blood sugar.


I'm not saying that Nintendo's can't move into the QoL field, I'm saying that the competition there is far, far more tech savvy and cut throat than Sony and MS' videogame divisions. It took 4 years for MS and Sony to market and release an alternative to the Wiimote. It's estimated to take about 6 months for Android phones to duplicate the iPhone 5s' fingerprint scanner.

My biggest fear is that whatever innovation Nintendo is sitting on, it will be obsolete within a year because they are not a bleeding edge tech company any longer.

Edit: Damn, beaten by stump again. :/

 

[metalslimer]

Stop me when you disagree:



I have no idea if you were ever interested in lifestyle products or services before last night. It's ok if you weren't, of course. But I'm just saying if you weren't and you're under the illusion that people aren't already doing pretty much every permutation of hardware and software and services, well, that's wrong. They are. They're huge competitors. I'll also add that any service being "accessible on Nintendo consoles" is useless. No one wants Nintendo's current console. That's the whole point of diversifying. By this E3 the Wii U will have at best the 6th largest active install base among consoles. Lower if you include mobile. Lower still if you include the AppleTV and various SmartTV platforms. It'd be like trumpeting that your software even works on Symbian or BlackBerry.

Wow....

My biggest fear is that whatever innovation Nintendo is sitting on, it will be obsolete within a year because they are not a bleeding edge tech company any longer.

And this is just such a huge problem with thinking that anything Nintendo ever does from now on will be a replica of the Wii and DS success. The DS was launched in 2004 and it took years before touch screen gaming was a real thing outside of that. In today's market the DS would have been obsolete in less than a year.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Answers bolded

The meeting was much more towards mid and long-term perspective, that's why they didn't talk that much about 3DS and Wii U, I feel. And also because it's a product that's going to enter its fourth year on the market soon, so I don't know how much you can change, except for games pricing. Maybe, it'll be a focus of another Investor Meeting

They basically said that 3DS is fine and that the Wii U can still do fine and that all they need to do is focus on the Wii U pad. That's more than enough to back up Stump claims.

Games pricing, further improving your account system, apps, digital ecosystem, etc.. there's a lot that Nintendo can do for a proper transition to their next handheld instead of letting things stay that way and keep bleeding marketshare for 2 years. Keeping the status quo is the worst thing, everything they do now for the 3DS can be used as starting point for their next handheld.

What said about 3DS, but also the high probability Nintendo themselves know the platform's not going to be big, at all. Iwata himself stated that "a price-cut can't change things either", so we're basically seeing them trying to extract as much as possible before the generational shift

And focusing on the Wii U Pad is the worst way to extract as much, because the concept of the pad itself is the weakest thing of the system.

I'll humbly say I disagree: what said about NNID becoming a center of their strategy, bigger focus on emerging markets, licensing, and the presentation of the new business sound, all together, like big changes compared to the past. Obviously, how they'll exectue them is going to be the key, as always...but, intention-wise, it's not so "we're doing ok" as you think: talking so much about how things will change in the future means they start knowing they're not doing ok now, but can't do so much to change that now

The problem is when a company faces times like Nintendo in which basically are betting their future to a wild card, is because normally they understand they didn't do the right calls and now they have to assume those risks. Nintendo instead claimed that they are fabulous, that's there's not a single problem with how the company works and made their calls in the last years, that the Wii U can be rebounded without acknowledging the problems of the product itself and that their handheld is fine without neither understanding the difficulties that market is facing.

Is not a discourse of "We can't change right now", they're basically saying that there's nothing wrong right now.

All those words about changing premium pricing model through NNID sounded more than just philosophical to me.

It was a vague as the the QoL stuff, is barely a concept instead of clear ideas that aren't even happening in years. Should be a thing in a few months, is baffling that they are waiting and consider the actual NNID good enough.

I believe in what tehrik said: they didn't want to talk about it now, but later...however, financial results forced them to start talking about that now, even if without so concrete words, given they don't want to unveil everything yet. Still, the "not-wearable" part sounds more like a service, to me: something that, with a monthly fee, can be accessed across a big range of devices, like smartphones, tablets, tvs and Nintendo consoles as well. That can qualify as a not-wearable product, IMHO. Especially considering their leapfrog from console to not-wearable. Certainly there are risks and obstacles, but I feel that, if done right, it could be something big for them. And I think there's already some know-how for those things after years and years of BT, Wii Fit and what not, and I'll admit...I want to think they know how to implement that in order to make the whole QOL product as successful as they want.

The problem if it's a service is not something Nintendo has expertize in doing so, but they have several players who can quicky work on that, if it's a hardware it faces the same problem. I think Nintendo dosn't understand that is not exactly a novel idea (even less in 2015/16), there's big players right now starting to dig in that area, players much well suited to face this market. Is not like DS and Wii where all the big players in the game industry looked to the other way and Nintendo was alone digging that gold mine and was kinda a terrain where they already had the necessary qualities to do so.

Also BT and Wii Fit are clearly products of another era that have been surpassed and dismantled by the competition. I really think that Nintendo didn't looked at the surroundings and the competition while creating this master plan and how fast they evolve and change.

Or rather see Stump post:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=98968682#post98968682

 

[Hermii]

I really have no good idea on what a non wearable health and learning device that you dont want to use in your livingroom is.

 

[Griss]

For a quick bit of perspective, Google X in the past year has debuted self-driving cars, internet weather balloons, and contact lenses that measure your blood sugar.


I'm not saying that Nintendo's can't move into the QoL field, I'm saying that the competition there is far, far more tech savvy and cut throat than Sony and MS' videogame divisions. It took 4 years for MS and Sony to market and release an alternative to the Wiimote. It's estimated to take about 6 months for Android phones to duplicate the iPhone 5s' fingerprint scanner.

My biggest fear is that whatever innovation Nintendo is sitting on, it will be obsolete within a year because they are not a bleeding edge tech company any longer.

I already said the exact same thing, man. I'm right there with you.

Where Stump outlined all of Nintendo's online and networking failures above is the real reason I think he should be fired. He's allowed the company to become incompetent at core abilities that they need due to an unwillingness to invest. It's unforgivable. They're so far behind almost every competitor in every potential tech market... how the fuck are we expected to believe that they'll make up the difference in a year or two when they've fallen further behind every year for the last decade?

 

[eighty(one)]

I don't see why or how NFC is exciting. I get it, Skylanders and Disney Infinite sold well....but both those games are already on Wii U and it's not helping.

Is there any benefit to NFC other than quick credit card swipes and toy scanning?

I'd love a Nintendo game, where the worlds (in game), are centered around worlds from varied Nintendo IP's. Imagine playing a mission based/collect-a-thon/arena brawler hybrid set in Hyrule, Zebes, Mute City, Mushroom Kingdom and other series' lands (Kid Icarus', Animal Crossing, Pikmin, Star Fox, etc.) - all in one game, guided by a cool story narrative.

There could even be expansions adding new worlds (DLC), using collectible figures and NFC.

Your heroes and their abilities are also utilized by incorporating a Skylanders like system of collectible figures, all from Nintendo's many storied IP's.

Ness? No problem.

Ice climbers? They'd be there too!

Samus' gunship? Playable.

I'd love this!

 

[The Technomancer]

I'd love a Nintendo game, where the worlds (in game), are centered around worlds from varied Nintendo IP's. Imagine playing a mission based/collect-a-thon/arena brawler hybrid set in Hyrule, Zebes, Mute City, Mushroom Kingdom and other series' lands (Kid Icarus', Animal Crossing, Pikmin, Star Fox, etc.) - all in one game, guided by a cool story narrative.

There could even be expansions adding new worlds (DLC), using collectible figures and NFC.

Your heroes and their abilities are also utilized by incorporating a Skylanders like system of collectible figures, all from Nintendo's many storied IP's.

Ness? No problem.

Ice climbers? They'd be there too!

Samus' gunship? Playable.

I'd love this!

It would be cool, definitely but I mean, they can basically do it with the Smash Bros approach and do it with Pokemon and while that's cool, I don't see either of them saving them financially

 

[eighty(one)]

It would be cool, definitely but I mean, they can basically do it with the Smash Bros approach and do it with Pokemon and while that's cool, I don't see either of them saving them financially

Wouldn't save them, but damn - it'd surely be a huge hit - if they played their cards right.
2 seperate experiences across WiiU/3DS, but the figures and expansions work on both. The worlds could be based on same world, but rendered and formatted completely differently.

Thereby, justifying NFC, nostalgia and both platforms successfully with a seperate but unified gaming experience.

(Although 3DS would need a separate way to incorporate, without NFC).

 

[Griss]

Stop me when you disagree:

Companies should do the kinds of things that they're best at. I'm not an artist, so it stands to reason that my efforts to break into the art world would be met with failure. I don't have the kind of creative or visual intelligence to do well in that field. Likewise, it would probably be unwise for me to start up an airplane manufacturing company, because it seems like making planes would be really expensive so I'd need a lot of upfront capital and I'd also need to hire people who know things about airplanes and manufacturing and everything else. Sometimes a big company with enough capital can expand into a new sector if they are aggressive with hiring, attract talent, etc.

And the same is true for big companies. If Intel decided to start an app store (they did), I'd expect it to fail (it did) because Intel is not really a content company at its core. It's an excellent engineering firm. They probably hired some people for the App Store, but they certainly didn't make waves with their hiring or put emphasis into it.

Now, clearly Nintendo makes excellent and imaginative software. There's no doubting that. So if someone said "Nintendo's new strategy is to emphasize software", I think that would be a good move. Hold up, I told Nintendo to emphasize software and their response was that they're best at hardware+software. We'll put that aside and assume for a second you're correct and the "QOL" business is software and service oriented.

Well, is Nintendo's core competency making rich network services? You tell me. They outsourced Swapnote (now mostly shut down because they lack the capacity to manage it or deal with the first minor PR issue they had with it), external companies helped with Miiverse which itself was a rough around the edges launch, Pokemon Bank is a simple CRUD website and launching it brought down their whole network and required a pretty amateur hour rescheduling of the product. They outsource their web browser (poorly, too, who the hell thinks NetFront is a viable option today). They don't have a web-accessible eShop. They used GameSpy for matchmaking and other services for the original Wii. They have never ever dealt with or been able to deal with hacking or cheating in any of their online games. None of their netcode has been notably good. So based on Nintendo's history, do you think Nintendo would be well suited to really aggressively go after building rich network services? That's what you're proposing they're doing.

This is basically why I've been banging the 3rd party drum so long. Nintendo has one skill that they are better than anyone else in the world at. One thing. And that's making quality family friendly software.

There are two markets out there that have proven to be willing to pay for or at least play such software. One is the hardcore community on PS4 and XB1. They bought Knack. They'd buy Mario and Zelda. There are tons of lapsed Nintendo fans there, like myself. The other is on mobile. Those are their potential markets, and they are better than their family-oriented software competitors in one (hardcore market), and could be better than competitors in the other if they put their minds to it, with far stronger IP than most companies in that sector.

I still think there's a market for dedicated handhelds, it's just going to keep shrinking. I expect them to continue to make handhelds. But other than that... I don't see how they can avoid these markets forever.

 

[Effect]

Is not a discourse of "We can't change right now", they're basically saying that there's nothing wrong right now.

This is really concerning. This wasn't an expo or some random interview. This was them talking with their shareholders. At a time one would think they'd be honest about the assessments of how business has gone and what they will be doing going forward to correct any negatives they might be facing. Talk about how you are going to expand. Great but that expansion into another market, that already has a ton of players, does not excuse or make the problems you are facing with your current offerings go away.

Not targeting kids enough isn't an answer to the Wii U's issues or even the problems their portable market will face. You can put all the ads you want on Cartoon Network. If you aren't providing a product that kids actually want it doesn't matter and that is part of the problem. What are you targeting them with is extremely important. Brand recognition is also important.

I do hope that the talk about partnering and licensing of IPs is referring to animation/cartoon and toy offerings. That there are no cartoons based on Nintendo properties on TV, when they're ideally suited for it, in their main consumer markets has always bothered and confused me. That's THE way of getting the attention of kids and making them love your products and then demand them. During the NES and part of the SNES era, where Nintendo was at their peak this was done. You had partnerships with cereal markers, fast food chains, etc. Brand management is something that is completely foreign to Iwata's Nintendo and I hope at least that is changing.

 

[Opinionatedfish]

i think he means digitally, not using carts. it does seem like an odd omission. i'd buy digital ds games for my 3ds.

Yup. He means that, I'm sure.

To be honest, I own this many DS games. There's only a few of those that I would re-buy digitally.

For me, that list of DS games I would totally re-buy digitally on the 3DS looks like this.

• Phoenix Wright 4 and Investigations. Since 1 - 3 are being re-released on the 3DS.
• Chrono Trigger DS
• Mega Man Zero Collection
• Jam Sessions 1

And that's actually it... because I own practically everything physically and the only DS games that I always carry on me are Jam Sessions 1 and Chrono Trigger DS. Having all of the Phoenix Wright games digitally would be kind of neat.. since I didn't get to buy a physical version of PW5 as it was only released digitally in the USA.

 

[Kimawolf]

Im willing to give them the benefit of the doubt because they got lightning in a bottle not once but TWICE. They accurately predicted the entire touch generation phase shift and the DS right on the money. They accurately predicted the rise of motion gaming and created the Wii and while everyone laughed and said they were finished it turned out to be massive. They took a misstep in, once again going for a more traditional audience with both 3DS and Wii U. And even with 3ds failing its handedly beat its competitor. So I cant just proclaim they are morons or completely out of touch ust because i dont get it at the moment and they are not catering to my little sliver of the pie.

When Nintendo fails, they can fail hard, but when they are on point they change the industry. So for noe anyhow, I will with hold judgement.

 

[AniHawk]

This is basically why I've been banging the 3rd party drum so long. Nintendo has one skill that they are better than anyone else in the world at. One thing. And that's making quality family friendly software.

There are two markets out there that have proven to be willing to pay for or at least play such software. One is the hardcore community on PS4 and XB1. They bought Knack.

ps4 owners bought knack. a decent amount of them did. it's probably going to sell well over time due to its status as a launch title. i'm not sure it's representative of the audience of the ps4 as much as it being one of the precious few exclusives on the system and one of the most-promoted games for the platform.

They'd buy Mario and Zelda. There are tons of lapsed Nintendo fans there, like myself.

this is the point where i ask for the receipts. making a really big choice and a definitive statement on a subjective feeling doesn't instill me with a lot of confidence. you feel there are others like you, but i don't think the numbers are there and no one can really prove that one way or the other, at least for ps4 and xbox one.

if people are going to talk about third-party in a realistic sense, i want to see them back up their arguments with how they'd make more money than they are now. if there's this huge nintendo fanbase secretly on other platforms, i need to see evidence of that to be swayed into thinking it's a good idea. for me, it's too simple of a solution to be realistic.

 

[Fine Ham Abounds]

I can't exactly blame them for trying to focus on giving the Gamepad value, I mean, they want to make their current hardware work, but I frankly see the DS VC as a nonstarter and should be such a vastly distant priority to bringing more VC to and bolstering the 3DS.

The more this whole thing is sinking in, the more I'm feeling bad about this. I try not to give in to the whole doom and gloom culture, but reading this brings me closer than ever to feeling not that the people at the top in Nintendo are isolated not just from the industry but from the modern world as a whole. This whole thing has Research in Motion written all over it - a company with so much brand recognition and momentum that by the time they realize they're in trouble they've forgotten how to walk.

When I got to the part about "entertainment's reason for existence is to put smiles on people's faces", I found myself simply unable to tell if this is Iwata being deliberately vague or obfuscative, or if this cloying superficiality is a real reflection of the underlying level of inspiration and intelligibility at Nintendo nowadays. I suppose "improving people's quality of life in enjoyable ways" is the attempt at being more specific, but as a base concept for this new QOL directive, it seemed just as vapid but also reaching. I mean, it didn't even make sense to me as a seque.

Maybe I'm totally offbase and all of this makes perfect sense for a historic toy company in 2014. I just don't know anymore.

The only light I'm drawing from this whole thing is my own interpretation (fantasy, really) that the vague talk of implementing a proper account system with digital value being a priority could be great if they modeled it after PSN or Steam. Of course, you could read the same portion of the presentation and interpret it as implying they are going to continue with the eshop and simply offer a discount if you buy 5 games at once. I don't think that would be spectacularly attractive.

 

[John Harker]

Basically yeah. I think they're taking a reasonable approach. Of course it's hardly what some people expected but there are plenty of genuinely good ideas there.

Yea. well i've been hinting for awhile they weren't going to drop gamepad or heavily play in the hardware pricing game, not my fault if people didn't want to hear it or disappoint themselves.

they also aren't the only 'game-maker' who is trying to crack into health care, either

 

[jvm]

A colleague of mine was talking with me as we discussed the slides from Iwata last night, and he had an interesting comparison: the Coleco Adam.

That is, a toy and video game company stepping out of their core business into another industry that they simply weren't bred for.

For Coleco, it was stepping out of the toy and video game business and into the home computer market. The Adam was a huge boondoggle that never caught on with consumers.

Now Nintendo appears poised to move from being a toy and video game company to being a player in the health and lifestyle market. Sounds crazy to me too.

Spoiler

I should confess that as a nerd in that period, I desperately wanted a Coleco Adam. ColecoVision was still cool and the lure of enhanced versions of ColecoVision games was irresistible. And you could sell the idea to your parents as a home computer! In the end, I loved my Commodore 64 much more than I think I'd have ever enjoyed an Adam. In the mid-1990s I bought a complete Adam from a thrift store for a few dollars. It worked, but was just as terrible a system as I had read that it was. I sold it, plus blank tapes that apparently people like to have, for a nice profit.

 

[Guevara]

Here's what I got from the meeting last night:

- Nintendo thinks the 3DS is doing fine. They didn't mention it. It's clearly the stronger of their two pieces of hardware, there's no denying that. But I don't think it's correct to assert that it's not a cause for concern. Even with Pokemon's strong results out of the gate, there's been significant overall software erosion in both first-party and third-party categories. I think this is a risk. It's a risk because less licensing revenue from third parties means Nintendo has less money to cover their burn rate or hardware R&D losses. It's also a risk because their own software costs more to make and sells less overall. That's not a trend you want to continue going forward. To me, the Wii U's failure seems relatively minor in comparison to some of the generation-over-generation structural comparisons for the 3DS. I would be worried about that going forward.

This is huge to me too, and very few people seem to be mentioning it. I don't have much to add, but the fact that the 3DS is often the best selling platform in a territory really obfuscates the problem. They are the biggest piece of a shrinking pie. Nintendo has to see it, even if they won't admit. They "saved" the 3DS this gen in a public and embarrassing way, hopefully this means they have a plan for next gen.

 

[Porcile]

I'm reading on a website that Super Mario 3D World has sold (or is that shipped?) nearly 2 million copies? Even if that includes bundles, that strikes me as very impressive considering Wii U hardware sales and limited user base to sell to. Nintendo software still has a lot of power...

 

[metalslimer]

This is huge to me too, and very few people seem to be mentioning it. I don't have much to add, but the fact that the 3DS is often the best selling platform in a territory really obfuscates the problem. They are the biggest piece of a shrinking pie. Nintendo has to see it, even if they won't admit. They "saved" the 3DS this gen in a public and embarrassing way, hopefully this means they have a plan for next gen.

I have a terrible feeling they are going to be severely developmentally strained going into their next handheld generation. I do like what we're hearing about the infrastructure, but Nintendo's hardware developmental team seems woefully unprepared for this development.

I'm reading on a website that Super Mario 3D World has sold (or is that shipped?) nearly 2 million copies? Even if that includes bundles, that strikes me as very impressive considering Wii U hardware sales and limited user base to sell to. Nintendo software still has a lot of power...

If it had a lot of power it would have sold more systems. The actual good news is that their is an actual buying base in that small audience of Wii U owners. That's also a shipped number.

 

[Zalman]

I'm reading on a website that Super Mario 3D World has sold (or is that shipped?) nearly 2 million copies? Even if that includes bundles, that strikes me as very impressive considering Wii U hardware sales and limited user base to sell to. Nintendo software still has a lot of power...

There is nothing wrong with the software itself. Nintendo still has some of the strongest IPs in gaming. They just need to get their decision-making together.

 

[The Boat]

A colleague of mine was talking with me as we discussed the slides from Iwata last night, and he had an interesting comparison: the Coleco Adam.

That is, a toy and video game company stepping out of their core business into another industry that they simply weren't bred for.

For Coleco, it was stepping out of the toy and video game business and into the home computer market. The Adam was a huge boondoggle that never caught on with consumers.

Now Nintendo appears poised to move from being a toy and video game company to being a player in the health and lifestyle market. Sounds crazy to me too.

The difference being that Nintendo isn't stepping out of the video game business at all.

 

[RobFox64tm]

So here are my take aways from the presentation:

-Nintendo will not stop producing dedicated hardware for the time being, which means they will attempt at least one more cycle.

-Short term, they will continue to support the Wii U platform and try to rejuvenate sales with more Game Pad focused software.

-They will use Wii U as a testing ground for a much more extensive NNID account system that will tie all future Nintendo hardware/software, and smart devices, together.

-They will extend marketing to smart devices, and use their IP to expose a broader audience to the Nintendo brand through expanded licensing.

-They will cultivate a new business, separate from the gaming side, that will utilize quality of life and health products to attract a potentially untapped market.

Nothing here sounds too bad to me, honestly. The fact that they want to develop these quality of life products separately from their core gaming products gives me some hope that any future hardware from them will have a more focused target audience, rather than trying to appeal to gamers and the expanded audience with one proposal. Of course this is all written in a very vague manner, but I think it's clear that they aren't throwing in the towel anytime soon. As a Nintendo fan, I'm relieved that isn't the case, and that they seem to be identifying some key problems they've had recently. Of course I hope they make better choices going forward, but what I've read here is encouraging enough.

 

[Guevara]

And seriously, if you bought a Wii U and did not buy Mario, what are you even doing with it?

 

[Linkhero1]

The difference being that Nintendo isn't stepping out of the video game business at all.

Yup. It seems like another pillar going forward. If it fails they still have gaming to go off of, but they're still going to end up spending a lot of money on something that has too many risks.

 

[metalslimer]

Nothing here sounds too bad to me, honestly. The fact that they want to develop these quality of life products separately from their core gaming products gives me some hope that any future hardware from them will have a more focused target audience, rather than trying to appeal to gamers and the expanded audience with one proposal

Ok, if you are a core gamer with little interest in these QOL products, how does this help you in any way? The developmental resources will still be taken away to develop these types of games. Nintendo isn't ever going to make a PS4 type console because they are moving these products to a different system. If anything, with an entire platform (or ecosystem or whatever they are doing) focus will be even more split and their console will be even less focused

 

[jvm]

The difference being that Nintendo isn't stepping out of the video game business at all.

I'm sure with Buck Rogers plastered over every box for the Adam, Coleco felt they too weren't betraying their core competencies, and would sneak into the market and thrive. But, ultimately, they were undone precisely at the time their core business model was crumbling.

 

[vinnygambini]

A colleague of mine was talking with me as we discussed the slides from Iwata last night, and he had an interesting comparison: the Coleco Adam.

That is, a toy and video game company stepping out of their core business into another industry that they simply weren't bred for.

For Coleco, it was stepping out of the toy and video game business and into the home computer market. The Adam was a huge boondoggle that never caught on with consumers.

Now Nintendo appears poised to move from being a toy and video game company to being a player in the health and lifestyle market. Sounds crazy to me too.

Did you even read the presentation materials? This is considered a ''third pillar'' and certainly fits with their lifelong moto as provided in their financial guidelines:

Nintendo continues to pursue its basic strategy of “Gaming Population Expansion” by offering compelling products that anyone can enjoy, regardless of age, gender or gaming experience.

Iwata:

We will also take on the challenge of expanding into a new business area.

We will attempt to establish a new platform business with which we can leverage our strengths, but which is independent from our video game platform business.

 

[metalslimer]

Did you even read the presentation materials? This is considered a ''third pillar'' and certainly fits with their lifelong moto as provided in their financial guidelines:

Nintendo continues to pursue its basic strategy of “Gaming Population Expansion” by offering compelling products that anyone can enjoy, regardless of age, gender or gaming experience.

Yeah it's just a 3rd pillar. Remember what happened with the last 3rd pillar. I'm glad the gameboy still exists. I don't know why everyone is denying the fact that money is drying up in Nintendo's current sector and if this new venture takes off core gaming will be a much smaller part of Nintendo's business.

Iwata even started off the meeting talking about how Nintendo has changed constantly over it's 125 year history.

 

[RobFox64tm]

Ok, if you are a core gamer with little interest in these QOL products, how does this help you in any way? The developmental resources will still be taken away to develop these types of games.

It's really too early to say if that will be the case or not though. Nintendo could expand and build more development teams before that time comes. It's not like what was stated here alleviated all of my concerns either, but I know that major changes take time. Nintendo is under the gun now, more so than they've ever been, so I'm willing to wait this out and see where they go from here.

 

[Osiris]

Yeah it's just a 3rd pillar. Remember what happened with the last 3rd pillar. I'm glad the gameboy still exists. I don't know why everyone is denying the fact that money is drying up in Nintendo's current sector and if this new venture takes off core gaming will be a much smaller part of Nintendo's business.

Iwata even started off the meeting talking about how Nintendo has changed constantly over it's 125 year history.

It's an unhealthy dose of

..with a significantly sized side order of...

It's really too early to say if that will be the case or not though. Nintendo could expand and build more development teams before that time comes. It's not like what was stated here alleviated all of my concerns either, but I know that major changes take time. Nintendo is under the gun now, more so than they've ever been, so I'm willing to wait this out and see where they go from here.

You're aware that that "massive warchest" of cash is dwindling rapidly, and unless they turn things around soon they will be going to way of Sega don't you?

They don't have the luxury of making hail mary passes like this, they are one generation away from annihilation, and are acting like they have a millennium to turn things around.