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Nintendo's Q3 Investors' Meeting slides, now in English

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Iwata said:
During the period we launched the DS and Wii, many also thought we had little future in video games. Wii U is not doing well now, but one game can change everything. For example, Pokemon for the Gameboy.

Wrap it up. Just... wrap it up.

Iwata said:
If you ask me how long do you have to wait, within one year is not possible, but if in 3 years we're still not there, then something is wrong.

Also Iwata buying himself 3 more years. Disbelief. Investors have little choice other than to just sell and get the fuck out on the next temporary high. Gamers are going to have to watch Nintendo die a real death over the next decade and deal with that.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
I didn't see a thread about Nintendo's actual sales figures for the last quarter. Sorry if I missed it.

Anyway, I wrote up two columns for Gamasutra showing where things are headed (a) digitally and (b) in terms of hardware shipment rates. Here they are:

Nintendo's digital biz growth slows dramatically

Five years of hardware declines leave Nintendo weakened

I'd appreciate thoughts on whether they'd be interesting for a separate thread. There's a lot of discussion here about what Nintendo's planning to do, and I don't know if these kinds of figures help inform that discussion or should be separate from it.

Sample images:
nintendo-digital-ttm-12-2013.png


ttm-nintendo-console-shipments.png


Thanks.
 

Cygnus X-1

Member
Wrap it up. Just... wrap it up.



Also Iwata buying himself 3 more years. Disbelief. Investors have little choice other than to just sell and get the fuck out on the next temporary high. Gamers are going to have to watch Nintendo die a real death over the next decade and deal with that.

I think we can all understand now why Lincoln, Arakawa and Main left the company after Iwata was named successor of Yamauchi. If you read the history of the Gamecube here you'll find that they were about to modernize the company back after the N64 era. It never happened eventually.
 
No, what they said between the lines was this:
Short term:
- The Wii U failed. It's probably beyond rescue but since we can't release another console at this time we'll keep supporting it and try to make it at least profitable again and/or use it to experiment with some idea's we're having.
Mid term:
- For profitability we're launching a new casual health device/platform as a 3rd pillar.
Long term:
- We will probably try to find a way to unify our handheld and console platforms in the future for easier development/more support/game-or-asset sharing. This will not be for the next 2 years though.

Yup, this is exactly what I fear, that by the time they figure all this out, most gamers will have abandoned them. The smartphone world have just added their gamepads, and will be more unified/mature in a couple of years time. Not sure if Nintendo will have too much of a chance to start selling dedicated hardware anymore. But hey, they could always go 3rd party worst case scenario, in the end it's about the software no matter what platform it's on.
 
Wrap it up. Just... wrap it up.



Also Iwata buying himself 3 more years. Disbelief. Investors have little choice other than to just sell and get the fuck out on the next temporary high. Gamers are going to have to watch Nintendo die a real death over the next decade and deal with that.

Mark my words, Iwata will continue to delay everything throughout this entire year and maybe next year as well with vague promises. And like Anihawk said, even if the QOL thing flops next year they will have a potential new handheld soon after to delay with and a new console possibly soon after that, so basically Iwata can continue to stall because he has a buttload of money to hold onto.
 
if people are going to talk about third-party in a realistic sense, i want to see them back up their arguments with how they'd make more money than they are now. if there's this huge nintendo fanbase secretly on other platforms, i need to see evidence of that to be swayed into thinking it's a good idea. for me, it's too simple of a solution to be realistic.

Well, they aren't making money right now. It can't be hard to make more than "not making money".

How well are the big third parties doing right now, like EA, Activision, and Ubisoft? If Nintendo went third party they would immediately be one of the big publishers, only without the 50 million dollar game budgets.
 

Well, you certainly have bought into this with full abandon. All I can say is that when I first read the presentation my initial reaction was "this is either the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning," and my gut feeling is never to bet against Nintendo, but the longer it lingers, the less I'm buying it.

Let them give concrete plans and sign some contracts, then I'll reconsider. Right now, this is vague as vague can be blue sky (not blue ocean) concept stuff that feels like a first idea he came up with while binging on cheesecake and crying into a glass of scotch.
 

L~A

Member
Ok.
Zefah, StreetsAhead, whoever wants...come over here.

As I said, it's 2AM in the morning right now, so I doubt anyone living in Japan is awake right now... and even if they do, I doubt they'd want to translate all that right now.

I wonder when they'll put the English version... probably next Wednesday, I think?
 

mrpeabody

Member
Here's just a few quotes:

This is the first step of our efforts to transform customer relationship management from device-based to account-based, namely, consumer-based, through which we aim to establish long-term relationships with individual consumers, unaffected by the lifespans of our systems.

Of course, when we do launch new hardware in the future, rather than re-creating an installed base from scratch as we did in the past, we wish to build on our existing connections with our consumers through NNIDs and continue to maintain them.

we will also try to change the way in which dedicated video game systems as well as software are sold that people have come to take for granted.

Dedicated video game systems are sold for two hundred or three hundred dollars, on which standalone software titles are distributed for 30 or 50 dollars. This simple model received widespread support from consumers that enabled us to create today’s market. The decision to change it is the manifestation of our recognition that we cannot expect this model to work forever amid dynamic changes in people’s lifestyles.

We aim to establish a new sales mechanism that will be beneficial to both consumers and software creators by encouraging our consumers to play more titles and increasing a platform’s active use ratio without largely increasing our consumers’ expenditures.

I read the same remarks you did. Iwata never says anything about crossplay, crossbuy, or carrying your existing purchases over to new systems. All he actually commits to is an account-based system not tied to hardware (which MS has had since 2002 but, you know, better late than never).

Untapped potential doesn't refer to third parties. It refers to the untapped potential of the hardware.

I misunderstood. I agree that the potential of the Gamepad has been untapped thus far, and Nintendo clearly intends to make the Gamepad a focus this year.

Whether that has a snowball's chance in hell of raising Wii U sales, is a point upon which we probably disagree :).

You also misunderstand the QOL. It's going to be a new product and there are no direct competitors. The Wii and the likes of Wii Fit prove that people are willing to pay money for health related products. No name mediocre apps even if they are $2 are not that much of a problem. Mario, Fifa, GTA etc all manage to sell millions despite the plethora of free games available on various devices. QOL will live or die by the quality of the product and the marketing.

Nobody knows what the QOL is going to be, because Iwata is so vague. He mentions "the hardware that will enable such an idea", but he also calls it "non-wearable", a term with no meaning.

My best guess is that "non-wearable" means "not independent". So the QOL will be a hardware device, not standalone but instead a small portable addon, similar to the Wii Fit Tracker, that connects back to the Wii U and/or 3DS.

If you already own a Nintendo console, and the QOL product is high-quality, great, this might be for you. If you don't, requiring the additional purchase of a dedicated gaming platform to run your health app puts this concept at a disadvantage.

Now, if they were to release a hardware doohickey that talks to a smartphone app, and DOESN'T require the 3DS or Wii U, then they're at least on a level playing field with the competition. The chances of that, though, are zero.

It's going to be a new product and there are no direct competitors.

Nintendo is not first and they are not alone. Health/fitness technology is a huge existing market with tons of competition. In the "wearable gadget" category, you have Jawbone, Fitbit, and Nike Fuel. For apps, you have your choice of hundreds, and they don't cost $40 a pop.

If Nintendo wants people to plunk down money to help them get fit, they are competing with all of that.

No name mediocre apps even if they are $2 are not that much of a problem. Mario, Fifa, GTA etc all manage to sell millions despite the plethora of free games available on various devices.

Nintendo might be able to get people to pay extra for the Nintendo name, but there's a limit. $10 instead of $2? Sure. $50? Maybe. A $250 piece of hardware? I doubt it.
 
Nobody knows what the QOL is going to be, because Iwata is so vague. He mentions "the hardware that will enable such an idea", but he also calls it "non-wearable", a term with no meaning.

My best guess is that "non-wearable" means "not independent". So the QOL will be a hardware device, not standalone but instead a small portable addon, similar to the Wii Fit Tracker, that connects back to the Wii U and/or 3DS.

If you already own a Nintendo console, and the QOL product is high-quality, great, this might be for you. If you don't, requiring the additional purchase of a dedicated gaming platform to run your health app makes puts this concept at a disadvantage.

Now, if they were to release a hardware doohickey that talks to a smartphone app, and DOESN'T require the 3DS or Wii U, then they're at least on a level playing field with the competition. The chances of that, though, are zero.

I don't think it's likely that they're looking at something portable. Why? Smart devices / wearables can duplicate pretty much any functionality that a dedicated pocket doohickey can, and if they can't, the necessary hardware can be added in the next yearly iteration.

I think it's much more likely that they're looking at connected home devices. The most obvious one would be Wii Fit like stand alone scales, but they could go for a wide range of smart home products which can't be worn/taken with you.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
About their mobile approach, maybe a first experiment is going on...in Canada?

QhPWm9y.jpg


Mario.ca is the mobile version of Nintendo's Canadian official site about latest news, games and merchandising, and it's been activated last November. All in a much more streamlined way compared to the desktop version of the site. Now, it seems that NoC is pushing it with a notable release for the first time.

As said, this is a streamlined mobile version of the site, not an app. Seeing how it's being pushed alongside DK, maybe it's a test for the overall mobile approach.

It's possible what I read over there was wrong, though, and that this is not the first time they promoted Mario.ca with a release, but I haven't heard of a US counterpart yet. Feel free to enlighten me if I'm wrong here.
 

hongcha

Member
Investor meeting Q/A is now available... in Japanese. I'd love to know why the hell they published it at; like, 2AM in the morning.

Clickey here!


I only had time to read through the first page, but not much is new. Basically, for the Wii U, all of their hopes are set on MK8 and Smash Brothers, and they want to sort of relaunch the system with these games and highlight the charm of the Gamepad. Iwata's hope is to eventually get a bit of profit out of the system (he's very realistic with his expectations here, it sounds like he really doesn't expect much from the U).
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I only had time to read through the first page, but not much is new. Basically, for the Wii U, all of their hopes are set on MK8 and Smash Brothers, and they want to sort of relaunch the system with these games and highlight the charm of the Gamepad. Iwata's hope is to eventually get a bit of profit out of the system (he's very realistic with his expectations here, it sounds like he really doesn't expect much from the U).

In regards to the licensing opportunities, did you read anything pertaining to that that would give us more information?
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
I only had time to read through the first page, but not much is new. Basically, for the Wii U, all of their hopes are set on MK8 and Smash Brothers, and they want to sort of relaunch the system with these games and highlight the charm of the Gamepad. Iwata's hope is to eventually get a bit of profit out of the system (he's very realistic with his expectations here, it sounds like he really doesn't expect much from the U).

It sounds like what many of us speculated, after all. I'd love to know more about the Q&A, but it'll probably be available in English around Wednesday...and we're not even sure all the content will be translated correctly, given the "Future Platform" slide mistranslation XD
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Nobody knows what the QOL is going to be, because Iwata is so vague. He mentions "the hardware that will enable such an idea", but he also calls it "non-wearable", a term with no meaning.

My best guess is that "non-wearable" means "not independent". So the QOL will be a hardware device, not standalone but instead a small portable addon, similar to the Wii Fit Tracker, that connects back to the Wii U and/or 3DS.

If you already own a Nintendo console, and the QOL product is high-quality, great, this might be for you. If you don't, requiring the additional purchase of a dedicated gaming platform to run your health app puts this concept at a disadvantage.

Now, if they were to release a hardware doohickey that talks to a smartphone app, and DOESN'T require the 3DS or Wii U, then they're at least on a level playing field with the competition. The chances of that, though,

You're describing the wearable devices category. Hahaha.
 

R-User!

Member
Some people thought that quote was referring to 3d world. Now that iwata mentions it again, im starting to think its their NFC game, a new IP. It may involve cards.

It really is an untapped market, combining physical cards with a videogame, on a tablet.

It could be the next big thing, at least in Japan.

Pokemon cards?
 
i assume they will. i'm guessing they'll target 6m wii us and 10m 3ds units

3ds number seems a bit low at first glance, but then again it's been trending down YOY and they don't have the Pokemon 2DS combo this time around.

That Wii U number would be pure pie in the sky stuff. They'll do better this year since it includes MK8 and SSB, but don't see them hitting 6M.

Edit: Then again they did predict 9M Wii U and 18M 3DS last year and didn't publicly revise that until 4 months ago. Surely they won't massively over-predict again?
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
i assume they will. i'm guessing they'll target 6m wii us and 10m 3ds units

I think your spot on on 3DS targets; however, I doubt Nintendo will be bullish with their FY15 targets. They'll most likely be conservative targets: 5 and 9 million respectively for Wii U and 3DS.
 
If I'm reading correctly, last year Nintendo shipped 2.8 million WiiU's. 6 million sounds like a big leap for the WiiU.

They projected 2.8M, which was revised down in January from the initial 9M. We'll find out if they met the new projection, but they were around 2.4M at the end of december so they should meet it with channel stuffing.
 

AniHawk

Member
3ds number seems a bit low at first glance, but then again it's been trending down YOY and they don't have the Pokemon 2DS combo this time around.

That Wii U number would be pure pie in the sky stuff. They'll do better this year since it includes MK8 and SSB, but don't see them hitting 6M.

Edit: Then again they did predict 9M Wii U and 18M 3DS last year and didn't publicly revise that until 4 months ago. Surely they won't massively over-predict again?

I think your spot on on 3DS targets; however, I doubt Nintendo will be bullish with their FY15 targets. They'll most likely be conservative targets: 5 and 9 million respectively for Wii U and 3DS.

If I'm reading correctly, last year Nintendo shipped 2.8 million WiiU's. 6 million sounds like a big leap for the WiiU.

That would be a terrible number for 3DS.

yeah, i'm predicting a more positive year than the wii u will see, based off of nothing other than false optimism (but honestly if they can't hit 6m this fiscal year i doubt they scratch 15m before the system is discontinued). and the 3ds is trending downward, definitely. maybe they'll say 14m to make it seem steady, but i honestly don't know what they have left to propel software sales. the machine is in decline.
 
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