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kingkitty · Aug 11, 2015

These are my hot takes on people who are not on trial today. I know I missed a couple of players, but here's my stuff for now.

swamped - Makes herself noticeable by starting the first lynch as a discussion starter. Could be a bold play by despair, trying to look helpful to the town by starting off the conversation. Would seem a lot easier, and safer just to let someone else cast the first stone.

cornburrito - Occasionally shows confusion, but seems be a well meaning hope player. I don't like corn in my burritos.

Kalor - As least in Day 1, he seemed very agreeable with the masses. I got the vibe he didn't want to step on too many toes.

Czartim - Posts a lot, but a good percentage might not be life and death essential.

ViviOggi - Joined an early bandwagon against AB. Hard to type name.

goshu - Seems like a thoughtful townie with his posts, which makes it more of a shame that he (may have) hinted at his early role in day 1. Could this be some clever play by despair? Seems a bit risky if there happened to be another player with the same type of role.

Makai - Didn't want to commit to anything on Day 1. Started off with a no-lynch. Sticks out from the pack doing that. I could be misreading this, but it seemed like he was afraid Day 1 would become a role-claim fest. But then he earlyish role claims. His excuse was because he was at work and he'd miss the deadline, which I think is understandable. Still sucks how that all played out though.

Rest - As I said before in Day 1, he seemed a little too combative in the argument with crab, who at the time seemed pretty straightforward.

zippedpinhead - Doesn't stand out that much to me.

pau - Doesn't stand out.

salvapot - Stuck out by voting for a no-lynch.

*splinter - Showed confusion at bold maneuvers on Day 1.

This probably has been touched upon by the others, but there's at least a despair or two who are simply blending in. Not necessarily posting little, but just trying not to stick out. Anyways, I'm off to eat more food.

ViviOggi · Aug 11, 2015

Not a fan of being reduced to my clueless jump on the AB bandwagon but the read lists are appreciated. I'll do that as well later today.

CzarTim · Aug 11, 2015

lol @ AB's post. Get blarg in here to translate it.

ViviOggi · Aug 11, 2015

Also I agree with your last paragraph kingkitty, I've been pondering on my D2 scum reads for a while and found it hard to pinpoint any.

Terrabyte20xx · Aug 11, 2015

So we still have about a day before we hit the deadline, but there is something about day two that is now possible. Since we started actually looking at other people besides the two duelists, we have entered an unique and helpful position.

Knowing what we know now, we can make an educated vote, not for who we think is dispair, but who's death will give us the most information. I myself have an idea on who it should be, but I want to hear someone else's idea first, so that I don't sway the conversation one way or the other in the same post that I bring it up.

Zippedpinhead · Aug 11, 2015

Reads ala Zippedpinhead:
1. Crab Hope, Really do not think he is despair. However, he has not been present that much today. Many people tend to not think rationally when he posts.
2. Swamped active yesterday, not so much today. On vacation, I hope she enjoys it, because we can use her insight here. Hope
3. AbsolutBro No read yet. He is a really good player at this game, need another day to really get a feel for his faction.
4. Kgtrep Reading Hope, but a used power role for Hope. Had a severe case of tunnel vision day 1 leading into day 2
5. TL21xx Substitute player, been involved a bit more than Ty4on
6. CzarTim A much more focused Czartim. Giving Cornburrito and Launch a run for their money. Hope.
7. CornBurrito Reminds me of Czartim from last game. Very energetic, gets very focused. Only keeps one ball in the air at a time (all effort on one person) BUT when presented with another option, he does switch targets.
8. Barrylocke Where are you? The less you post the more I think Despair.
9. Kingkitty Has stated that Day 2 being between only 2 people is why he hasnt been as active. Hopefully he brings it day 3
10. Kalor Forgot me on his lists of reads. Dont know whether that is a good thing or a bad thing
11. Rest Almost punished day 1. Wanted the vote to tie at one point, which is sort of understandable, but also kinda anti-town. Hasnt been as active day 2
12. Makai Dont trust you in the slightest.
13. SalvaPot largely agrees with me and I agree with a lot of his assessments, except the no lynch
14. ViviOggi more active today, but still not as active as others. Not reading anything.
15. Pau She is in the same boat as vivioggi, and Absolutbro. Havent posted as much as others so more difficult to read.
16. Terrabyte20xx leaning hope but not for any particular reason
17. Sawneeks No good read, she could be anything
18. Goshujinsama I dont trust the accidental role claim. Could have been a Despair ploy, could have been newbie jitters. Maybe Ill have a better read tomorrow.
19. Ty4on Substitute player.

Kalor · Aug 11, 2015

Terrabyte20xx said:
So we still have about a day before we hit the deadline, but there is something about day two that is now possible. Since we started actually looking at other people besides the two duelists, we have entered an unique and helpful position.

Knowing what we know now, we can make an educated vote, not for who we think is dispair, but who's death will give us the most information. I myself have an idea on who it should be, but I want to hear someone else's idea first, so that I don't sway the conversation one way or the other in the same post that I bring it up.

I can think of arguments for voting for either person.

Voting Kgtrep means that we can find out some definitive answers to their role such as role alignment. However if they are the only person who can initiate a Bullet Time Battle then that makes this information useless.

On the other hand if we vote Crab then that will clear up any misgrievances that some people have about him and find out what role they have. They have said some stuff that seems to hint towards them having a power role so we could find out about that.

Pau · Aug 11, 2015

We could always test Makai since he seems so sure about Crab. If Crab isn't Despair, then go after Makai tomorrow.

But I don't know if people are willing to sacrifice Crab for that.

CornBurrito · Aug 11, 2015

I am. I want a goddamn seafood dinner on D2.

Deleted member 231381 · Aug 11, 2015

Pau said:
We could always test Makai since he seems so sure about Crab. If Crab isn't Despair, then go after Makai tomorrow.

But I don't know if people are willing to sacrifice Crab for that.

Even though I am Hope, that doesn't meam Makai is Despair. He can also just be wrong about me. There are twenty-one players, and only five or so are Despair, so people will be wrong quite often. By itself, being wrong isn't a scumtell.

*Splinter · Aug 11, 2015

Pau said:
We could always test Makai since he seems so sure about Crab. If Crab isn't Despair, then go after Makai tomorrow.

But I don't know if people are willing to sacrifice Crab for that.

I get a lot of confirmations if Crab is Despair:
Makai - Probably Hope
CornBurrito - Probably Hope
kgtrep - Confirmed Hope
Kalor - Likely Despair

Or if he's Hope:
Makai - Suspicious
CornBurrito - Suspicious, maybe Hope
kgtrep - Probably Hope
Kalor - Likely Hope

Terrabyte remains probably Despair either way.

This is just some of the most notable (for me). kgtrep gives me pretty much nothing either way except info on his role (which I don't see much value in unless there's a major surprise in there).

CzarTim · Aug 11, 2015

yeah let's not set up any chain lynches.

Terrabyte20xx · Aug 11, 2015

*Splinter said:
I get a lot of confirmations if Crab is Despair:
Makai - Probably Hope
CornBurrito - Probably Hope
kgtrep - Confirmed Hope
Kalor - Likely Despair

Or if he's Hope:
Makai - Suspicious
CornBurrito - Suspicious, maybe Hope
kgtrep - Probably Hope
Kalor - Likely Hope

Terrabyte remains probably Despair either way.

This is just some of the most notable (for me). kgtrep gives me pretty much nothing either way except info on his role (which I don't see much value in unless there's a major surprise in there).

Okay this has been bugging me, why am I only dispair in your eyes? What have I done that could possibly make you so sure that I'm dispair?

*Splinter · Aug 11, 2015

Terrabyte20xx said:
Okay this has been bugging me, why am I only dispair in your eyes? What have I done that could possibly make you so sure that I'm dispair?

Sorry if it seems passive aggressive to just keep throwing your name out like that. I've been meaning to do a proper write up on my suspicion of you and will do so in the next couple of hours (need my notes/pc for it)

The short version is day 1 suspicions I already explained, followed by your trust in Crab which seemed to come out of nowhere and at an odd time.

On the other hand, you're posts have been less suspicious the past ~40 hours (during Crab's absence) and I should amend my previous post to say that if Crab is Hope then suspicions of you are slightly weaker and with slightly different reasoning (plus I would be less sure in everything if I'm so wrong on Crab).

If that sounds like "guilty by association" you'll have to wait for a better explanation coming soon.

TL21xx · Aug 11, 2015

So sorry for not being active yesterday friends, I was driving across Texas pretty much all day and didn't have a chance to log on. I'll be more active soon, I promise!

And yes, AbsoluteBro, I am trying to avoid dogpiles. I prefer getting a good read of the situation before I commit.

CornBurrito · Aug 11, 2015

Terrabyte20xx said:
Okay this has been bugging me, why am I only dispair in your eyes? What have I done that could possibly make you so sure that I'm dispair?

Sorry to say this but you also strike me as potentially Despair. If Crab is Hope that is. Mostly because of how buddy buddy you have been with him.

*Splinter · Aug 11, 2015

Ok Terra, a slightly better explanation (hopefully)

Here is my last explanation, to save me repeating myself:

*Splinter said:
You've been extremely reluctant to share your thoughts. When you do they are generally well presented and informative, so it's a shame for Hope that you won't share them more often. Several players have already pinged you for this, and your activity has increased slightly in response. But your earlier posts were almost completely devoid of analysis or accusation, and in fact you failed to even follow your own advice:

(Actually that doesn't make sense, what I mean is you were doing the exact thing that you warned Despair could be doing.)

You voted for goshujinsama. This was after his role claim but before Corn spelled it out.

You voted for Rest at a perfect opportunity to swing the vote his way without being the person who 'started' it.

I'm fairly sure I've forgotten a point... Oh well

None of these things, even in combination "convince" me you are Despair. But as I said you are my main suspect, and looking through the thread I struggle to find anything to suggest I should trust you.

You accepted this and offered the explanation that you were just unlucky. I accepted this explanation as possible but unverifiable, and do include it in my considerations.

Nonetheless this left me reasonably suspicious of you, certainly the front runner.

Crap, I'm reading back through Makai's reveal and I slightly mis-remembered the order of events. The first post I want to quote is this one:

Terrabyte20xx said:
Anyone as skilled and versed in this game as Crab is should always have a gigantic eye of skepticism. If there was ever someone who was best equipped to fly under the radar, it's Crab.

Now I remembered it that you posted this before Makai's reveal. That doesn't totally change my next question but it has weakened the influence of this event on my opinion...

The second quote is this one:

Terrabyte20xx said:
You know, dispite everything that's happening, I still trust Crab. I think he's doing what should be done, and his reaction is contributing to keeping my trust. So I am not going to vote Crab, not yet.

So my question is: what happened to make you go from skepticism to "still trust", given that the only thing between these posts was Makai revealed and Crab came under attack from multiple posters. Now I realise the first quote is after the reveal and kind of line with the first skepticism of Crab, but my question remains. Where did this trust come from? It didn't feel justified or consistent - you had kept him at arms length before this point (I'm sure there is another quote similar to the first).

Even with the corrected sequence of events, I hope you can see that this would build upon my distrust. Now I've been a "little" too focused on Crab since then, and honestly my opinion on you just hasn't moved much throughout Day 2.

I might have given the impression that my suspicion is stronger than it is by mentioning you a few times - sorry, I post too much - you're still up there but this is only Day 2.

tl;dr
Suspicious early play followed by sudden, unexplained, strong support of Crab from Makai's reveal onward. Note: this is independent of Crab's possible guilt.

Terrabyte20xx · Aug 11, 2015

I very much like your above post. It's a shame we haven't seen many posts like it, and I am included in the group who need to step our games up.

That being said, I would like to answer a question you posed: How did I go from skeptical to trust?

The answer was his responses to being heavily pressed. He defended himself using logic and did so while also imparting good advice for town that I found I agreed with. But keep in mind that I still have a sliver of doubt. In this game you have to have one, otherwise it would be impossible to win.

*Splinter · Aug 11, 2015

Terrabyte20xx said:
The answer was his responses to being heavily pressed. He defended himself using logic and did so while also imparting good advice for town that I found I agreed with.

I guess this is where I disagree with you then. Post 914 was a good response but when pressed further by Corn's wall of quotes (944) he exploded with this post, which I don't think helped his case at all. Your statement of trust came shortly after this.

*Splinter · Aug 11, 2015

Sawneeks I hadn't noticed this before, but you kind of did the same thing I was accusing TB of. First you made this statement when voting Hagi. I disagree with the logic but hey its an opinion, that isn't what I'm questioning here.

Sawneeks said:
Vote: Hagi

If Hagi ends up being Town I'm going to very seriously consider Crab and kgtrep as Mafia. Until then, let's see how this goes.

So Hagi dies, is revealed town, and you are now apparently 'considering' Crab and kgtrep.
Day 2 starts and, by chance, these two players are the only ones up for vote. But for some reason, you don't seem too happy about this (bolding mine):

Sawneeks said:
What a way to start Day 2. I still need to read everything as I only skimmed through the last couple of pages really quick but it does look like we are stuck with kgtrep or crab. Maybe I can find more info from the novels both of you have written in response to one another but it looks like things are kind of straight forward? Who knows, I will come back in a bit and post some thoughts later.

Did your overnight considerations take you away from these two? Can you explain why?
Finally you return with this statement:

Sawneeks said:
I'm still skeptical on Crab but after reading through Kg's Bible on Crab I'm much more inclined to believe that he is Town as well. What it feels like is it's going to come down to 'why should we keep Crab over Kg or vice versa?'

Unless I'm misreading this, kg's argument further convinced you that Crab is Hope. Could you explain why/what part of kg's posts prompted this conclusion?
I'm not accusing you based off of this alone but I'd like to hear more detail, if possible.

ViviOggi · Aug 11, 2015

[m] Rest: Been extremely quiet for a long time, coupled with my earlier suspicions I'm leaning Despair
[ f ] Sawneeks: Unsure, latest posts felt like Hope
[m] kgtrep: Has to be Hope
[m] CornBurrito: Posts a lot, fosters discussion but tends to tunnel a bit. I have no reason to assume Despair
[m] ViviOggi: Incredibly Hope
[ f ] Pau: Has been contributing more recently, but could be scum reacting to suspicion.
[m] *Splinter: Hope
[m] Crab: All but vanished after his godlike deflection at the start of D2. Evidently annoyed at kgtrep's power usage and been busy for a day, still I expect more from someone who called for broader discussion. Actually leaning Despair again, plus lynching him should give us good information to work with
[ f ] swamped: Unsure, on vacation. Gut says Hope but I'm keeping in mind slight inconsistencies in her posting style
[m] Kalor: I remember liking his recent contributions but he's a bit non-committal overall
[m] Zippedpinhead: Has stepped it up recently after weaker contributions on D1 but I'm not fully convinced that my earlier suspicions were off-base. Really unsure about him
[m] CzarTim: Probably Hope
[m] Makai: Fishy for reasons mentioned by many, he basically went all-in on Crab very suddenly (a notion I don't mind by itself) and I'm not sure if I believe his role claim
[m] SalvaPot: Unsure, slightly leaning Hope
[m] AbsolutBro: Busy, quality contributions for the most part, likely Hope
[m] Barrylocke: No idea, leaning Despair blending in for now
[m] Terrabyte20xx: Left no real impression somehow but has been questioned quite a bit recently. Have to reread
[m] kingkitty: Still suspicious/confusing and inactive for long periods of time. Slightly leaning Hope atm
[m] goshujinsama: Leaning Hope
[m]Ty4on: Replacement
[m]TL21xx: Replacement

Rest · Aug 11, 2015

goshujinsama said:
[...]It was how Rest called up on you to tie the votes (post no. 737). It sat very off with me and I had thought maybe Rest had done a small misstep and revealed that he and you may be privy to a hidden channel of discussion between yourselves.

If I had some other communication with him, why would I ask here instead of there? I don't understand that.

Deleted member 231381 · Aug 11, 2015

I was busy yesterday, rather than disappeared. I was going to be more active today, but everyone gained +2 points in sensible when I disappeared, so there didn't seem to be much point. If there's any specific points you want me to answer, I'll do it, but whenever I take an active role everyone wants to crucify me, so I'm playing it passive from now.

Deleted member 231381 · Aug 11, 2015

Like, any broader discussion I personally attempt to take part in immediately gets sidetracked because people consider all of my points in relation to whether or not I am Hope or Despair. That's fine from your perspectives, but given I know I am Hope, it just makes any and all participation frustrating. I feel like town progress more when I'm not here because they obey the first rule of fight club.

CzarTim · Aug 11, 2015

f i g h t
c l u b

Deleted member 231381 · Aug 11, 2015

Also, DuckpadMcLaunch, you only answered one of my questions properly. If a player has two equal-shortest-route paths, which one do they take? That could be important both now and later on; it's not fair to the players if you decide it randomly. Is it left-bias, right-bias, east-bias, west-bias?

Pau · Aug 11, 2015

Crab said:
Even though I am Hope, that doesn't meam Makai is Despair. He can also just be wrong about me. There are twenty-one players, and only five or so are Despair, so people will be wrong quite often. By itself, being wrong isn't a scumtell.

Sure, in most cases. But when that person is potentially claiming to have more information or a power role, it becomes suspicious.

LaunchpadMcQ · Aug 11, 2015

Crab said:
Also, DuckpadMcLaunch, you only answered one of my questions properly. If a player has two equal-shortest-route paths, which one do they take? That could be important both now and later on; it's not fair to the players if you decide it randomly. Is it left-bias, right-bias, east-bias, west-bias?

That's because I don't want to put my foot in my mouth.

If there's any confusion on a path or if the distance is equal between two paths, I will clarify it to the individual. Otherwise, it is the shortest distance.

Also, why you disrespecting my name bruh?

Deleted member 231381 · Aug 11, 2015

Pau said:
Sure, in most cases. But when that person is potentially claiming to have more information or a power role, it becomes suspicious.

I mean, I agree - I find it frustrating Makai's role claim hasn't been examined more carefully, because frankly it was dreadful. I don't want town to start setting up chain lynches (get X, if X isn't scum, then get Y), because even if Y has persecuted X to the ends of the earth, X then being innocent doesn't mean Y was scum, it probably just means they're a bad player who couldn't step back and stop tunnelling. It also means that you don't really examine things as carefully the next day, because you decided the day before, so mafia, if you weren't right, gets a free day of being unpressured and town gains nothing from it.

I find Makai really shady at this point, too, but rather than commit to lynching him tomorrow now, I'd rather commit to lynching him now tomorrow, if you get my gist.

ViviOggi · Aug 11, 2015

That seems fair, Crab. No specific questions on my mind and I don't have the time to look at post histories again.

Tomorrow should be interesting, also *Splinter keep up the good work. I think you might be reaching with the Sawneeks thing but I like how you've been searching for inconsistencies everywhere.

ViviOggi · Aug 11, 2015

Wait actually I did have something from yesterday:

ViviOggi said:
That being said I noticed that you've had a number of outbursts lately, Crab. When called out by CornBurrito you quickly made a markedly out-of-character post (#1396) and soon reminded us that emotions on display aren't necessarily what people are actually feeling (#1502). Since you've stressed yourself that you're playing a character could you tell me what you're hoping to gain by repeatedly lashing out like this as a Hope player?

I have some ideas on why you posted like this but I'd still like to hear your own thoughts. Gotta get some sleep now though.

*Splinter · Aug 11, 2015

ViviOggi said:
That seems fair, Crab. No specific questions on my mind and I don't have the time to look at post histories again.

Tomorrow should be interesting, also *Splinter keep up the good work. I think you might be reaching with the Sawneeks thing but I like how you've been searching for inconsistencies everywhere.

Yeah probably, I just want more people to explain their position beyond gut feeling, hell maybe I'd even find something I agree with.

I should probably ask Crab something, but I just went to bed... Tomorrow I guess

LaunchpadMcQ · Aug 11, 2015

Remember students: Preguntando se llega a Roma!

sandalphon · Aug 11, 2015

*Splinter said:
goshu read everyone but me can't you see I crave attention?

Absolut I don't understand what you mean by roundabout, but that was a cool exercise, might try it later

Apologies, Splinter. It seemed that I left you out of the cut and paste section since you were at the very top, due to the asterisk at the beginning on your name. My bad.

My read for you: Active and has a keen eye. Contributes to discussions regularly. You make consistent pick ups of interesting behaviours of other players. I remember early in the game you picked up on there was a hard derail by Makai following two votes on Sawneeks (post no. 454). Hope.

Would we be able to get an updated vote count, please?

Deleted member 231381 · Aug 11, 2015

ViviOggi said:
Wait actually I did have something from yesterday:

I have some ideas on why you posted like this but I'd still like to hear your own thoughts. Gotta get some sleep now though.

#1396 has no further motives. It's just saying that I can furious in the context of this game and (obviously) not resent you outside of it, because tensions were running high at that point. Don't read that as game material, it's not, and I marked it OoC (probably more accurately OoG) as such.

#1502 is only loosely related to me and is more closely related to CzarTim's #1500 - it's a slight admonishment to CornBurrito for thinking that joking is always just jokes when he was getting cross at CzarTim for that.

Swamped · Aug 12, 2015

I just got back everyone! All I can say is UGH. You guys post far too much. I have nearly 600 posts to read properly from this day phase.

It is entirely possible that I will have missed something crucial in my Day 2 read. If there is something in particular that you want me to address please let me know! In the mean time, look forward to my upcoming posts.

CzarTim · Aug 12, 2015

Oh don't worry you literally missed nothing

Swamped · Aug 12, 2015

CzarTim said:
Oh don't worry you literally missed nothing

Whose bright idea was it to put you and Crab in the same game with LMQ as moderator? Only way it could be worse is if Sorian and Palmer were in this game too. I suppose I should be thankful for that. CornBurrito and *Splinter seem to be giving you a run for your money too.

Ty4on · Aug 12, 2015

Nothing big as I've been busy, but looking a bit through AbsolutBro's posts (bless your postcount, especially with so little fluff) I found this kinda interesting. The important bit is below it. This starts almost 3 hours after Makai role claimed and 30 minutes before Hagi was lynched.

AbsolutBro said:
[...]

Crab said:

I would suspect someone who has managed to avoid every single major wagon, because they cover a diverse array of players that many people have fairly good reason to suspect.

Click to expand...

I had this exact same thought and took a look at the player list. If you take out the major bandwagons (My early one, goshujinsama, Rest, Makai and KingKitty) you're left with 6 players:

kgtrep
~~Makai~~
SalvaPot
Barrylocke
~~goshujinsama~~

Makai and goshu have both claimed PRs in one way or another; whether I believe them is another matter. That leaves 3.

kgtrep is currently voting Hagi.
Salva is currently voting No Punishment.
Barrylocke is currently voting ViviOggi.

(incidentally this is really weird to type while the Google doc keeps updating).

Of the 3, I don't have any real strong feelings of scummish behaviour. I'd say "Barry's been real quiet", but that would be beyond hypocritical of me since I've barely been around. (which is partly why my scum sense isn't really tingling just yet).

I didn't really like Rest asking me to vote just to tie it up, especially so early on.
I don't really trust several players taking fairly aggressively confrontational stances early on, especially on D1.

The other thing we have to ask ourselves is how much we trust the Hope claims by Makai and goshujinsama. Sure, their roles may be real, but that doesn't say much about their actual affiliation.

Going to post this and get caught up. Still have 30 minutes.

He shortened Crab's post. Here is the entire post:

Crab said:
Essentially: as a mafia, I very rarely have my vote on the person who gets lynched, because people suspect that. There are probably going to be 5 mafia in this game and 18 town; there's easily enough town to lead an all-town wrong lynch on someone, especially right now when it only takes about 3 votes because we're so divided. Right now, I would suspect someone who has managed to avoid every single major wagon, because they cover a diverse array of players that many people have fairly good reason to suspect. It seems implausible you couuld have not once voted for any of those players. So, that leads me to suspect kgtrep, who has done just that.

At this rate I might be forced to vote for someone else to prevent a tie, though, given we have 9 minutes.

Crab was 1 hour wrong with the time, but later when only 10 minutes were remaining and Hagi was bandwagoned this happened:

AbsolutBro said:
I'm going to come back to this post, only because I have very little else and it just immediately rubbed me the wrong way. He's spent the entire day so far emphasizing that people should not come out as PRs, then does that very thing when he was barely on the line and there was plenty of time left for votes to change.

Honestly I feel like this post is a bit of a trap. Coming out as a PR automatically paints a giant target on you. Unless his PR gives him some sort of immunity to NKs or something, it's as anti-town as you get. I feel like it's also a trap for other reasons:

1. People who have PRs that might have been voting for him will see the title and think "hey, that sounds like mine!" or something. This is primarily if we have Hope and Despair versions of the same PR (e.g.: Hope and Despair switchers, for instance). Their backing off (which would likely be done with little or no explanation because other PRs would want to avoid outting themselves) might give Despair some idea who the Hope PRs are.

2. MAKoto NAegI

I mean, I don't really believe in coincidences. I can't be the only one that see this as something sketchy?

I know Makai is pretty much in the clear for the day and voting is unlikely to switch heavily in the next 10 min, but I have to:

[hightlight]Vote: Makai

I don't get scum tells from Hagi or Rest, even if a couple of Rest's posts rubbed me the wrong way. I can't in good conscious vote for them just because they're the front runners. And if I'm wrong about Makai, if Despair murders him and he turns out to be Hope aligned, well, sucks to be me I guess.

He made a later post with a properly formatted vote. This was the only vote Makai had at the end of day 1.

TL;DR: 2 hours after Makai's role claim and 1 hour before Hagi's lynch Crab posts how despair would avoid bandwagons or more specifically those who are lynched because in retrospect it looks bad. 30 minutes later AbsolutBro replies that he agrees with him and tries to look for people who have avoided all of the bandwagons. Then, 10 minutes before Hagi is about to be lynched, AbsolutBro posts why he want to vote on Makai. Makai's only Vote.

It's as if he is avoiding the bandwagon, but he was busy at the time so I might be reading too much into it. Sorry for the long post, I don't like to cut away more than fluff/irrelevant content from quotes.

Rest · Aug 12, 2015

Makai said:
I did exactly what you asked, you just refuse to acknowledge it.

These are the only posts I care about. I will switch my vote to kgtreb if you can prove that this isn't role-fishing:

Crab said:

Okay, so what will happen on Night 1 that would make sure that one of us is/is not Despair? What are you expecting from this night?

Click to expand...

Crab putting your feet to the fire is not a scum move. I was right there with him when he was asking that, and would have voted for you if I hadn't been serious about my vote. The way you were acting, not even giving your thoughts as to who we might vote for and why, was very suspicious.

In fact, I still don't give much credit to your role claim, and still have suspicions about you not helping town decide who to lynch by giving your thoughts. Not voting is not the same as not having having suspicions, and opinion, or even a hunch.

Crab retroactively claims to have suspected you of having some kind of power role, but that could be BS. No one had any reason to suspect you of being a PR, and even if you are, you could have stayed mum on that subject and still addressed the request to give an opinion about the state of the game and players.

Crab said:
There is no situation for which "THE INFO IM WAITING ON COMES FROM MY PR" is an acceptable answer; it never helps town, so why would you answer me that way?

Basically, that.

Makai said:
You demand my suspects. I give you my suspects. You don't think these are legitimate, so you rolefish (but really you weren't rolefishing and just wanted me to give another set of suspects). Later you claim to have known that I was a power role, yet you continued pushing me with the clock around my neck. You are clearly scum.

I also don't ever recall you giving any suspects on day one, can you say which post that was?

SalvaPot said:
Also, I don´t like the way he forced the second day into a U.S. President Election day, what if I want to vote for Jim Carry? Oh, thats right, I can´t, because he is not on the ballot and because it would be a waste of a vote.

Write in votes count in the US.

CzarTim said:
Also you shouldn't assume people are town just because they agree with you. those early quick votes on crab are weird (*cough* rest *cough*)

I'm not sure how you figure that, I've been anti Crab for a long time.

Also, it's Rest. Proper noun and such.

CornBurrito said:
Let's pretend that kgtrep did not use his power today. What would you discuss? Who WOULD you vote for if you weren't locked into two choices? Why?

I would actually be talking about kgtrep right now. His behavior towards the end of day one was weird to me. But, with his PR revealed, I think that actually explains it, so if Crab is Despair I probably won't be looking at him too closely Day 3. I had some thoughts on Terrabyte20xx, but with this day's developments being what they are I can't remember what he said or what posts it was in, so I'll have to go back and look. After all the catch up I'm doing right now, I don't think that's going to happen today (or maybe even tomorrow.) Thank goodness night phase is three days long.

Pau said:
We could always test Makai since he seems so sure about Crab. If Crab isn't Despair, then go after Makai tomorrow.

But I don't know if people are willing to sacrifice Crab for that.

Crab grilled Makai hard, and I think probably feels like Crab forced his role reveal (if that wasn't a bluff.) As much as I feel like Makai has made some good points, it still feels flavored by OMGUS. His hard on for Crab could be retributory, so I'm not sure that Crab turning up town would necessarily say anything about Makai.

Makai · Aug 12, 2015

Rest said:
I also don't ever recall you giving any suspects on day one, can you say which post that was?.

http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174258411&postcount=836

Rest · Aug 12, 2015

Sawneeks said:
Also the odd silence from Rest in Day 2, we haven't heard quite a lot from TL21xx, Pau, Ty4on and suddenly both SalvaPot and AbsolutBro are now posting much more than Day 1. All little things really, but I still found them odd.

ViviOggi said:
[m] Rest: Been extremely quiet for a long time, coupled with my earlier suspicions I'm leaning Despair

I wanted to address these on their own. I made exactly one post on NeoGAF yesterday, specifically to check in here and make sure you guys knew I hadn't bailed. Again, I'll refer to my post history: I'm pretty active on GAF, I post every day or nearly every day. I was busy the last few days, and my posting supports it.

Rest · Aug 12, 2015

Makai said:
http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174258411&postcount=836

I see. I hadn't interpreted that at the time as airing suspicions, though I do see now how you could have meant it to be.

LaunchpadMcQ · Aug 12, 2015

Day Phase 2 ends in:

Current Vote Count:
11 Votes Needed for a Majority

Crab (6)
kgtrep
CornBurrito
*Splinter
Rest
Makai
Terrabyte20xx

kgtrep (8)
CzarTim
SalvaPot
goshujinsama
TL21xx
Zippedpinhead
Pau
kingkitty
Barrylocke

Sorian · Aug 12, 2015

Swamped said:
Whose bright idea was it to put you and Crab in the same game with LMQ as moderator? Only way it could be worse is if Sorian and Palmer were in this game too. I suppose I should be thankful for that. CornBurrito and *Splinter seem to be giving you a run for your money too.

Hey, HEY, don't besmirch my good name.

Carry on students.

LaunchpadMcQ · Aug 12, 2015

Sorian said:
Hey, HEY, don't besmirch my good name.

Carry on students.

You got no authority here punk.

Beat it.

Makai · Aug 12, 2015

Rest said:
I see. I hadn't interpreted that at the time as airing suspicions, though I do see now how you could have meant it to be.

I have done exactly what I said I would do in that post. I suspected Crab and CzarTim on Day 1. On Day 2, I am convinced that Crab is scum.

Swamped · Aug 12, 2015

I guess there are several things that need to be brought up, especially as the deadline is in less than 24 hours.

1. kgtrep vs Crab

Swamped said:
Anyway, now that i have a little time i just wanted to post my inclination on who to vote for. We only have two choices today. It's not a secret that i was suspicious of Makai's role claim. It actually tells us nothing about alignment. It could be Hope or non-Hope. In fact, it's possible that he had been planning that reveal from the beginning, given his stubbornness to engage during Day 1, to make us all think he was a Hope PR. So once he revealed, why did Crab immediately assume he was Hope aligned? This is one reason im leaning towards voting for Crab.

The other is that I'm fairly certain that kgtrep is Hope, but i can't say the same about Crab because i don't have enough proof about him. Kgtrep said his power can only be used once, and he says he didn't want to die before using it. I agree that these one shot Hope powers should be used as early as possible (i actually have first hand experience dying from one in the SW game!). This power is all about gambling. If we all had proof that Crab was Despair there would be no point in using this ability. So what I'm trying to say is I trust kgtrep's judgement.

I haven't seen an explanation to the bolded question. Crab's assumption that Makai was Hope aligned makes me think that Crab could be Despair, as they would be the only ones who would know other people's alignments for certain. If there is an explanation for this, could someone point me in the correct direction?

Further, I am convinced that kgtrep is Hope because of his power, and the work he put into building this case (even if I don't agree with all the points, I can understand his intention). I cannot say the same about Crab, probably because it is only Day 2 and I don't have enough information. To me, there is a slightly larger chance that Crab is Despair in comparison to kgtrep. In my opinion there are people who are more suspicious, but I only have a choice between two.

If someone asked me to choose between jack fruit flavored ice-cream and strawberry flavored ice-cream, I would choose jack fruit simply because it was the lesser evil.

VOTE: Crab

Also, I'm not exactly sure how the votes here will help us find Despair. I think it will be even easier than usual for Despair to blend in since there are only two candidates. Day 2 will be a challenging one to go through for re-reads. If I were Despair and Crab wasn't, who would I vote for? If I were Despair and Crab was, who would I vote for?

(Having said all that I really think that Launchpad did an awesome job coming up with this ability. If you have played the DR games you'll know how fitting it is!)

2. Franconp's death.

To me, it feels like Despair wanted to off a quiet person who didn't have many reads or anything. It still feels like a strange choice because several people voiced suspicions about him, so to keep him alive would have made him an easy mislynch. Like others, I also took a look at the map to see if that would clarify anything. Do they know something about the map that we don't? I still don't have a clear idea of how it functions, but I guess it's only Day 2.

Tbh, I was really hoping someone would invite me to a secret Gossip party at the pool during the night lol.

. Anyway, this line of thinking is probably a dead end given that Fran was an ordinary. Hopefully tonight's kill will give us clues, maybe relating to dorm room placement or something.

3. Replacements

Haven't really had a chance to interact much with TL21xx or Ty4lon, welcome guys! I know it must be tough having to catch up with the thread, form opinions, change opinions etc. But it's super fun, right? I would ask you who your top three suspects are, but since I know nothing about you guys, maybe I'll just ask for your opinion on me.

I think it was Akiyama from Liar Game who once said:

"People SHOULD be doubted. Many people misunderstand this concept. Doubting people is just a part of getting to know them. What many people call trust is really just giving up on trying to understand others, and that very act is far worse than doubting. It is actually apathy."

Anyway, more to come, including updated reads!

Rest · Aug 12, 2015

CornBurrito said:
This is what really scares me. Most everyone voting for kgtrep hasn't bothered discussing any of the evidence he posted against Crab. Or we get people like Zip and Malone who go "yeah he makes a good case but lol whatever yolo" and can't argue against any if the evidence but seem willing to ignore it. Like, what the fuck. The fact that people are so trusting proves that Desoair very well could go with a Fake Town Leader strategy. Crab and others keep pretending it would never work but the evidence doesn't support that in this game.

This post was made 36 hours ago, and no one that has voted this way has addressed it at all. We've gotten reads from a lot of people, which is a good thing, but I don't like that so many votes for kgtrep are being given to him by default, especially since no one seems to think he's Despair.

Can people say if they went back and reviewed what he said?

If you haven't done so, would you mind doing so now?

I think it's better for Hope if people vote in a way that they actually think will help. As much as I was pleased to see Crab up on the chopping block at the time, now I'm not so sure. Many people have complained that they feel shoehorned in, and now it seems that the complacence that that has caused is making people throw up their hands and vote, instead of taking a look at the reasons for voting for Crab or kgtrep.

Makai · Aug 12, 2015

Rest said:
This post was made 36 hours ago, and no one that has voted this way has addressed it at all. We've gotten reads from a lot of people, which is a good thing, but I don't like that so many votes for kgtrep are being given to him by default, especially since no one seems to think he's Despair.

Can people say if they went back and reviewed what he said?

If you haven't done so, would you mind doing so now?

I think it's better for Hope if people vote in a way that they actually think will help. As much as I was pleased to see Crab up on the chopping block at the time, now I'm not so sure. Many people have complained that they feel shoehorned in, and now it seems that the complacence that that has caused is making people throw up their hands and vote, instead of taking a look at the reasons for voting for Crab or kgtrep.

kgtrep voters need to respond to these two posts in particular:

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