For the last twenty years, Sony has dominated the mindshare of Japanese third parties. PS1 and PS2 were enormous, which led to strong support for PS3 also.
Nintendo has had mixed success with third parties on home consoles since the release of Nintendo 64. Although Wii was a huge success, third parties had already made the transition to "next-gen," and little other than low-budget titles were released for the platform before its decline.
The Japanese home console market has been rapidly shrinking for more than half a decade. PS4 would be considered a "dead system", if it were sat alongside Wii or PS2. Even Nintendo 64 is giving PS4 a run for its money, and its LTD tops Wii U's by just 450k. And yet, PS4 is single-handedly holding up the home console market.
Sadly, as the home console market declines, developing PS4 games targeted at the domestic market just isn't enough. It really is a case of "pick your poison" as a developer, you've either got to risk alienating the domestic audience by making your games more western-friendly; reduce the fidelity of your gaming experiences by creating handheld games; or risk it all by shifting resources to mobile.
However, there is one thing in Japan that can be guaranteed: the consistent, unprecedented success of Nintendo's handheld platforms.
Since 1989, Nintendo has shipped the following handheld platforms:
1989: Game Boy: 32mm
2001: Game Boy Advance: 17mm
2004: Nintendo DS: 33mm
2011: Nintendo 3DS: 21+mm
In comparison, PS2 sold 23mm units, and Wii sold 12.77 units. PS4 sits at 3.7mm units.
As did the PlayStation line, the Game Boy and *DS lines have produced repeated mega-successes for third parties. However, there has always been a clear distinction between handheld and home console titles, as each is suited to a very different type of experience and therefore, a different platform.
There is no doubt that a title such as Dragon Quest or Monster Hunter would sell more units if it were released on a single platform with 30mm units, rather than one with 20mm. This is one limitation of conventional platforms.
Nintendo has stated that Switch is a "home console", but the writing is on the wall: Wii U severely underperformed, and 3DS is desperately awaiting its successor. Nintendo Switch is very clearly the great grandchild of the Game Boy. It is the successor to the 3DS, just as the "third pillar" DS was to the Game Boy Advance. Nintendo Switch is a Game Boy-style handheld which packs a mightier punch than the company's current flagship home console.
The difference is that when the user arrives home, this handheld becomes their home console.
Developers will continue to create portable mega-successes and bring them to Nintendo's platform, as they have done since the late 80s. And Nintendo will undoubtedly continue to report huge sales numbers success as a result.
But now, developers can bring their home console experiences to a system that will likely achieve PS2-like (or, if you prefer, 3DS-like) numbers, without making enormous sacrifices to fidelity or taking high risks on mobile or unfamiliar/alienating markets.
When the user gets home, these home console experiences await.
Final Fantasy XV just opened at its series-lowest since FFV, released exactly 24 years ago. We are still waiting for the first PS4 game to crack 750k.
There is little doubt that PS5 will be released in the coming years. After all, PS4 is a beast overseas. But looking at the numbers, it is obvious where the home console market is headed in Japan. The domestic market will either have to take a back-seat, or the Japanese-targeted titles will have to move to other platforms.
Switch gives Japanese developers a chance to continue doing everything they already do and know, all in one place, on a platform which is an extremely safe bet. Few sacrifices will need to be made to fidelity, if any, and developers will likely make bank in doing so.
For those who have worked in Japan, you will know that Japan is a risk-averse, insular economy which actively seeks and enjoys familiarity. Switch speaks to business desire in a way that no other home console since PS2 has.
Switch is a platform where the biggest-selling handheld titles Monster Hunter, Pokémon, Yokai Watch, Dragon Quest, Animal Crossing, and more have a chance to meet the biggest-selling home console titles. Whichever titles will join them, and have a chance of their level of success, is up to third parties.
It seems doubtful that Sony will pivot and follow Nintendo's lead just to retain a single market: an "unconventional" PS5 risks the western markets the markets in which Sony performs exceptionally. Unless PS4 stumbles overseas, PS5 will be a conventional PlayStation. In the same way that PS4, PS3, and PS2 were.
A conventional PlayStation will not save the Japanese home console market. A "third time lucky" PSP isn't completely off the cards, but it is quite apparently that Sony abandoned the handheld market long ago.
With few hugely-popular first-party titles in their domestic market, Sony is about to be left with very little leverage.
For this reason, Sony should be worried.
What are your thoughts? Outside of the promise of access to international markets, what can Sony do to entice and retain Japanese third parties?
Nintendo has had mixed success with third parties on home consoles since the release of Nintendo 64. Although Wii was a huge success, third parties had already made the transition to "next-gen," and little other than low-budget titles were released for the platform before its decline.
The Japanese home console market has been rapidly shrinking for more than half a decade. PS4 would be considered a "dead system", if it were sat alongside Wii or PS2. Even Nintendo 64 is giving PS4 a run for its money, and its LTD tops Wii U's by just 450k. And yet, PS4 is single-handedly holding up the home console market.
Sadly, as the home console market declines, developing PS4 games targeted at the domestic market just isn't enough. It really is a case of "pick your poison" as a developer, you've either got to risk alienating the domestic audience by making your games more western-friendly; reduce the fidelity of your gaming experiences by creating handheld games; or risk it all by shifting resources to mobile.
However, there is one thing in Japan that can be guaranteed: the consistent, unprecedented success of Nintendo's handheld platforms.
Since 1989, Nintendo has shipped the following handheld platforms:
1989: Game Boy: 32mm
2001: Game Boy Advance: 17mm
2004: Nintendo DS: 33mm
2011: Nintendo 3DS: 21+mm
In comparison, PS2 sold 23mm units, and Wii sold 12.77 units. PS4 sits at 3.7mm units.
As did the PlayStation line, the Game Boy and *DS lines have produced repeated mega-successes for third parties. However, there has always been a clear distinction between handheld and home console titles, as each is suited to a very different type of experience and therefore, a different platform.
There is no doubt that a title such as Dragon Quest or Monster Hunter would sell more units if it were released on a single platform with 30mm units, rather than one with 20mm. This is one limitation of conventional platforms.
Nintendo has stated that Switch is a "home console", but the writing is on the wall: Wii U severely underperformed, and 3DS is desperately awaiting its successor. Nintendo Switch is very clearly the great grandchild of the Game Boy. It is the successor to the 3DS, just as the "third pillar" DS was to the Game Boy Advance. Nintendo Switch is a Game Boy-style handheld which packs a mightier punch than the company's current flagship home console.
The difference is that when the user arrives home, this handheld becomes their home console.
Developers will continue to create portable mega-successes and bring them to Nintendo's platform, as they have done since the late 80s. And Nintendo will undoubtedly continue to report huge sales numbers success as a result.
But now, developers can bring their home console experiences to a system that will likely achieve PS2-like (or, if you prefer, 3DS-like) numbers, without making enormous sacrifices to fidelity or taking high risks on mobile or unfamiliar/alienating markets.
When the user gets home, these home console experiences await.
Final Fantasy XV just opened at its series-lowest since FFV, released exactly 24 years ago. We are still waiting for the first PS4 game to crack 750k.
There is little doubt that PS5 will be released in the coming years. After all, PS4 is a beast overseas. But looking at the numbers, it is obvious where the home console market is headed in Japan. The domestic market will either have to take a back-seat, or the Japanese-targeted titles will have to move to other platforms.
Switch gives Japanese developers a chance to continue doing everything they already do and know, all in one place, on a platform which is an extremely safe bet. Few sacrifices will need to be made to fidelity, if any, and developers will likely make bank in doing so.
For those who have worked in Japan, you will know that Japan is a risk-averse, insular economy which actively seeks and enjoys familiarity. Switch speaks to business desire in a way that no other home console since PS2 has.
Switch is a platform where the biggest-selling handheld titles Monster Hunter, Pokémon, Yokai Watch, Dragon Quest, Animal Crossing, and more have a chance to meet the biggest-selling home console titles. Whichever titles will join them, and have a chance of their level of success, is up to third parties.
It seems doubtful that Sony will pivot and follow Nintendo's lead just to retain a single market: an "unconventional" PS5 risks the western markets the markets in which Sony performs exceptionally. Unless PS4 stumbles overseas, PS5 will be a conventional PlayStation. In the same way that PS4, PS3, and PS2 were.
A conventional PlayStation will not save the Japanese home console market. A "third time lucky" PSP isn't completely off the cards, but it is quite apparently that Sony abandoned the handheld market long ago.
With few hugely-popular first-party titles in their domestic market, Sony is about to be left with very little leverage.
For this reason, Sony should be worried.
What are your thoughts? Outside of the promise of access to international markets, what can Sony do to entice and retain Japanese third parties?
