Starfish Hero
Member
If Kid Icarus could do over a million, Splatoon can. Splatoon's reviews will probably end up just as polarizing, and it's considerably larger marketing push should make up for the smaller install base.
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Do we expect Splatoon to be the next major Nintendo I.P.?
- Thread starter Majestad
- Start date
It's funny you said that, Testfire 2 happened since your post and there was tons of Japanese players, and it was super early for them (7 AM I think).
Honestly, with the big marketting Nintendo is doing right now, it can reach one million. Hopefully the content patches will give it some legs.
I'm sticking with my original prediction. It'll be a modest success by Wii U standards that will justify a sequel on the next console, where it'll grow even bigger. Nintendo's playing the long-term game with Splatoon, & I strongly think that it'll pay off (though it'll probably pay off bigger with the sequel on the next console).
With the amount of advertising this game is getting & the Amiibos that are coming for this game, Nintendo's not gonna let Splatoon bomb.
With the amount of advertising this game is getting & the Amiibos that are coming for this game, Nintendo's not gonna let Splatoon bomb.
I'm guessing it'll work like it did for Mario Kart 8. If it sold like hotcakes, Nintendo will report on it as soon as possible. Though most of us aren't expecting MK8 or Smash numbers for this game, so we'll likely have to wait until sometime in June for a more accurate representation of how it sold.
This is my position as well. Albeit I do think, perhaps naively, that it's gonna hit at least 1m WW with no problem.
Or if they add the Inklings as DLC for Smash 4. Honestly, that last slot for Smash 4 DLC (since Wolf probably has the first mystery slot on lock) is either going to a ballot character that's within reason, the Chorus Kids, or the Inklings (who could also count as a ballot character since they've been pretty popular amongst voters).
I'm not expecting impressive sales from Splatoon. Most of the sales will be from North America, so maybe 250k is probably a safe guess. Likely 40-50k in Japan. I don't even know what to guess for Europe's sales except it won't be good. I just pray Nintendo gives the IP another chance in the future like it has with Xenoblade.
dangerskew
Member
When I pre-ordered Splatoon a week or so ago, the guy working (GameStop) told me that their store actually had more preorders for Splatoon than they did The Witcher 3.
Splatoon is guaranteed anywhere between 150k-200k within the first two weeks in Japan so it'll be off to a good start there. For all the jokes about "you're a kid now" adverts it feels that if nothing else that has just given it more attention, and Nintendo has been making more generalized adverts for Twitch, YouTube and even cinema screenings of Mad Max and Tomorrowland. Couple that with the TV advertising in some of the most unexpected countries, large store displays (someone posted pictures of a Splatoon-ified GameStop), the successful Testfire and that whole mess fest ordeal and I don't think its unreasonable to assume that the game will easily break half a million worldwide in its first two weeks or so. Nintendo also mentioned they're giving this the Mario Kart push with prolonged advertisement throughout the entire summer so legs might just be apparent.
By now its kind of evident that this is definitely going to make a bigger splash than most people expect.
By now its kind of evident that this is definitely going to make a bigger splash than most people expect.
Shikamaru Ninja
任天å ã® å¿è
I think Nintendo and specifically the premiere EAD team really want to establish a new IP this cycle. Obviously, Nintendo Land could have been that new title, but I think its interesting concept ultimately failed in execution. Thus, Splatoon now has that opening to creatively present something new to the current adopters of Nintendo hardware.
How much can it sell, that is another question. I think unlike Nintendo Land, this one will gather enough attention for a future sequel.
How much can it sell, that is another question. I think unlike Nintendo Land, this one will gather enough attention for a future sequel.
Burning Justice
the superior princess
I wasn't sure before the Testfire, but now I could definitely see it hitting 1m WW.
Jaded Alyx
Member
I think pre-order estimates in Japan are around twice that. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
Also 40-50k lifetime would be absolutely terrible. Or did you mean first week or something?
Yeah, pre-orders are around Pikmin Numbers right now, wich sold a little bit more than 100k in Japan first Week
I'm saying 1.5-2m WW. Nintendo are promoting it, there seems to be some (cautious) excitement in its direction and, for what little it's worth, it's 5th in the UK Amazon game sales chart - and this is a very Nintendo-unfriendly country. I don't expect it to be a major blockbuster, but do anticipate it doing well enough for there to be a Splat2n* on the NX.
*That's right, I went there.
*That's right, I went there.
Arc Christelle
Member
Splatoon 2 will sell gangbusters.
I'm not so confident that Splatoon will make it to 1m WW. It definitely won't mega bomb like other new Nintendo IP like W101 or Steam since this one has some hype and marketing behind it.
However, getting to 1 million seems like a tall mountain to climb since only the most popular Nintendo IP have made it so far, with series like DK, Kirby, and Pikmin all falling short.
Best guess though is that as long as it reaches a certain reasonable threshold for Nintendo, we can expect to see a sequel on hopefully a more popular platform given the effort put behind this title.
However, getting to 1 million seems like a tall mountain to climb since only the most popular Nintendo IP have made it so far, with series like DK, Kirby, and Pikmin all falling short.
Best guess though is that as long as it reaches a certain reasonable threshold for Nintendo, we can expect to see a sequel on hopefully a more popular platform given the effort put behind this title.
pixelation
Member
I honestly expect it to do about as well as the W101, inside the Nintendo bubble it may seem like the next big thing though...
It's been in #1 spot on Amazon Japan for weeks now. I think you guys will be surprised
Clearly someone hasn't seen all the promotion Nintendo's giving the game (something W101 lacked). That & the sheer fact that the game is getting its own line of Amiibos means that it'll outsell W101 by miles.
Put it this way, Nintendo would have had to just give the game its own Direct & intentionally ignore the game otherwise for it to bomb like W101 did (;_
. Either that or the game has to suck horribly, but clearly that's not the case, either.OrbitalBeard
Member
Let's try and think rationally for a bit here. The Wonderful 101 probably didn't sell more than a couple hundred thousand units worldwide. Splatoon is tracking around 100k in Japanese pre-orders alone. And it's pretty evident Splatoon will sell more units in the west.
I know it's fun for a lot of users to predict instant doom for every single Nintendo game released in this day and age but try to be at least somewhat realistic in your predictions.
theprodigy
Member
That's extremely pessimistic. TW101 was a crazy experiment, it wasn't marketed heavily at all, and reviewers weren't kind. It was something of a flawed masterpiece. Rotten in its core but so incredibly virant and original in its presentation that it exudes a strong personality. Bombastic, but messy. Splatoon meanwhile is safer, it has been marketed much more heavily, and impressions thus far are very good. It's going to have broader appeal for sure. Everybody knows what a third person shooter is, and it's broadening its net by making it the Mario Kart of third-person-shooters.
Is it going to do Pikmin levels? Maybe not, but maybe it will. But I think that's the bar to reach and it is achievable. Heck, I think outselling Pikmin 3 is certainly possible.
And Splatoon matched that with Japanese pre-orders alone. Splatoon's gonna be fine.
OrbitalBeard
Member
yeah, I screwed that part up and edited before you responded.
pixelation
Member
Seeing as how i'm not Japanese nor "in the know" of said market, i was unaware of this...
Advertising can only get you that far when the game that you're advertising doesn't cater to the general masses.
Clearly someone hasn't seen all the promotion Nintendo's giving the game (something W101 lacked). That & the sheer fact that the game is getting its own line of Amiibos means that it'll outsell W101 by miles.
Put it this way, Nintendo would have had to just give the game its own Direct & intentionally ignore the game otherwise for it to bomb like W101 did (;_
I'm not "having fun" here, i'm only answering to the question in the OP... i don't see it becoming Nintendo's next big franchise at all, maybe it's next Pikmin perhaps?...
Lord_Byron28
Member
Yep this summarizes my thoughts as well.
jailbird20022
Banned
It'll sell well, the hard part will be keeping the game relevant, both content and event wise.
Personally I want it to become a smash hit.
Personally I want it to become a smash hit.
and then get it's own Saturday morning cartoon like Kirby lol
I honestly wouldn't worry about that given all the praise given to the Testfire & other demos at events. Put it this way, Nintendo's not gonna give Amiibos to a franchise they think will bomb. Here's what will likely happen...
- Splatoon comes out & receives generally positive praise from critics (maybe a few points knocked off for lack of some multiplayer features) & players alike.
- The game won't sell MK8 or Smash 4 numbers, but it'll be a modest success by Wii U standards (like I said earlier). The Amiibos will sell like the other Amiibos, but Nintendo will likely make more of an effort to keep them in stock.
- Nintendo will get Sakurai to add the Inklings as playable characters for Smash, either in Smash 4 via DLC or in Smash 5. This is inevitable, the question is when.
- Splatoon gains enough traction to justify a sequel on the next console, where it'll sell even more copies thanks to the hype built up from the first game & the eventual inclusion of the Inklings in Smash.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Claiming numbers akin to The Wonderful 101 isn't the same as saying Splatoon won't be Nintendo's next big IP. The Wonderul 101 is a niche game that was barely marketed and sold an incredibly small amount of units. Splatoon could sell five times as many copies and still not be a huge new IP for Nintendo, though I'm fairly confident we're going to see a Splatoon 2 on NX regardless of how well the game performs on Wii U.
SHHHHHHH!
Only three games that aren't Mario or Zelda related have sold more than a million on Wii U: Nintedo Land, Smash and Wii U Party. And I wouldn't even count Smash as non Mario or Zelda related. I think some of the expectations for this game are way too high.
My offer stands...
OrbitalBeard
Member
You think 1 million is way too high of an expectation? It may not reach that number but that's a pretty realistic prediction, given how much Nintendo is supporting the game with marketing and Amiibos.
abstract alien
Member
I had no idea Wii U Party hit a million...
Exactly, and even then Nintendo Land and I believe Wii U Party were also bundled games for a time which contributed to their sales. 1 million for this game would be a gigantic victory.
I think it's high because this is a multiplayer focused game. Sure, it has a single player component that a lot of outlets say is quite good, but Nintendo games as a whole have legs which really help their sales numbers. I don't think this will have legs. It might get a little boost from word of mouth, but sales are going to plummet after 3-4 weeks.
PhoenixDawn
Member
I think a million is a reasonable level of performance to expect for Splatoon. It's high enough that it's certainly not a given with the Wii U's current userbase size, but it's definitely not out of reach by any means. I think it will have a lot longer legs than people are currently predicting just due to the fact that it sounds like it'll get ~biweekly content updates at least throughout this summer leading up to the major August update.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
This game is also bundled.
Nintendo Land was bundled with the Wii U, yes. But Wii Party U only came with an extra Wii Remote Plus (which Nintendo Land did when it was later sold separately). Wii Party U was also included in the Mario Kart 8 deal, which I got because I already had the other games offered.
Lord_Byron28
Member
Id compare Splatoon to how SSB started out. I expect it to be a modest success that will set up for a better selling sequel on the next system.
Context is different from Nintendo Land though since we are now ~3 years into the Wii U's lifecycle. Had it been a game bundled at launch like Nintendo Land then I think there wouldn't have been a doubt that the game could hit 1 million.
Splatoon still exists under wholly different circumstances that can't explicitly be compared to other titles.
For one thing the game is a brand new IP from a developer that, despite it's immeasurable quality, hasn't been widely known to put out brand new triple A IPs for a long time now. It had a highly well received demo. It's their take on a genre that's widely popular, and it's also a game that's being heavily marketed unlike most of the Wii U titles, even the million-selling ones. The only comparison for Splatoon in the latter category is Mario Kart, and that's the highest selling title the console has had.
So really, this poses a number of questions that we don't have a good frame of reference for.
Is a new triple A IP from Nintendo something that people actually want?
Is the twist on the formula something that people want to see and is it accessible and understandable enough to sell people?
Can a Wii U game with heavy marketing actually perform well despite the circumstances of it's console?
In Japan, the answer so far is looking to be yes. In the rest of the world we've yet to get an answer. But quite frankly I don't think it's entirely fair to discount it on the notion of being an unproven IP when plenty of major new IPs this gen have been the talk of the generation. People like new things, and that includes the people who own a Wii U. Legacy IPs isn't the only thing the console lives and dies on, it also lives on Nintendo's ability to sustain it with brand new ideas that people want to play.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Mario Kart and Smash Bros. are as well. Splatoon also has a far deeper single player component than MK and arguably Smash as well.
Nintendo is doing what they can to give the game legs. If their free DLC rollout works as intended, the game will be played for quite a long time.
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