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[jryi]

Retail chains in Tier 2 countries would order from distributors, not retailers. So those shouldn't be tracked in Germany. Of course individuals importing from German retailers would be tracked, but I wouldn't imagine that's a significant number considering the wide availability in their home countries from the retail chains importing themselves.

It would be really interesting to get some insight into the ratio of self-imported vs bought from a retailer here in Finland. At least on the forums that I frequent, I've seen many who told that they bought an Xbox One from German or UK Amazon (more the former). The first batch of unofficially imported Xboxes was priced so high that it didn't really make sense to buy one if you had a credit card. (Probably still doesn't.)

So I would imagine it's not an insignificant portion of all Ones bought by Finns that were ordered directly from German Amazon, thus showing in the statistics here.

 

[theprodigy]

This is really random, but does anyone have PS3 vs 360 LTDs in Italy?

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

Seriously? Close to exiting the gen by 2016? So basically not even a full 3 year life span? The Wii U's lineup shows that the system will be around without a successor until at least 2015.

Xbox One coming possibly having a shorter life than the Wii U even with more third party support and sales? Really?

I should clarify. I think they will have that option on the table for as early as then if sales don't pick up.

There is a few reasons why MS is more likely to cut a gen short than Nintendo.

-The type of device that MS are selling with the Xbone is basically a PC-in-a-box/set-top box. This type of hardware is much easier to replace with a successor than was historically the case the previous generations. In fact it is the most pliable gen right now to release successor consoles, if we are talking about a bump in specs and more of the same but just more powerful. Nintendo are not about pushing the power envelope, so a beefed-up spec successor, with their type of audience, is likely to benefit them less.

-Nintendo doesn't have a recent precedent of doing this, MS obviously did with the Xbox.

- MS knows the inception of the Xbone has been heavily flawed. It was originally meant to be a set-top box/console hybrid, now they are trying to position it as just a powerful console (that is not very powerful). Their volte-face on nearly every aspect of the system has resulted in something confused. It still has this stigma, and it will likely still have that damaging sales for a long while yet. It may be best to start anew with a clean slate. As poorly as the Wii U has sold, I don't think the design philosophy behind it has been anywhere near as confused as the Bone.

 

[nib95]

Well damn. That's a pretty hefty difference between the new consoles, and the gap looks to be widening.

 

[Saty]

I don't know what you mean by PC-focused. Its market share is surely higher in Germany than in France or the UK, but it's not like it's like half the sales or anything.

In the sense that it's probably the best market to assess that specific MS tactic in. If MS ain't bringing its games to Windows to spur Xbox sales or canceling PC versions (in the case of Alan Wake) then a market that skews the most towards PC would be the best place to check if that tactic has enough of an impact.

Those LTD's aren't giving me the impression that this tactic is finding success, though i guess yo can always say that the current gaps would be even bigger w\o that tactic.

 

[quetz67]

-The type of device that MS are selling with the Xbone is basically a PC-in-a-box/set-top box. This type of hardware is much easier to replace with a successor than was historically the case the previous generations. In fact it is the most pliable gen right now to release successor consoles, if we are talking about a bump in specs and more of the same but just more powerful. Nintendo are not about pushing the power envelope, so a beefed-up spec successor, with their type of audience, is likely to benefit them

Really a nice what if scenario.

MS comes up with XBoxOne 2 in 2016. Launching with a mega impressive Gears of War and all 3rd party games will be more or less 1:1 PS4 ports, but with beefed up effects and perfect IQ.

XBone owners will be pissed, but as of now most of them are early adopters with enough money anyway. Those who haven't decided to get a PS4 by then woukd have a really good altenative.

Sounds pretty good and kinda worked for the 360, but at what price? Another round of gigantic R&D and marketing costs, just 3 years too early. Loss of consumer trust as nobody knows what MS would do next, if they fail. And the problem with a lack of first party studios will not change.

 

[Mikke]

DAMN IT, why did I miss out on that? I've been on the fence for a while now and would've bought one immediately...
Media Markt, right? And was it seriously on everything? Seems crazy.

Yeah, Media Markt. There were a couple of exceptions (iTunes coupons, things like that), but consoles were included in the deal

 

[get2sammyb]

Really a nice what if scenario.

MS comes up with XBoxOne 2 in 2016. Launching with a mega impressive Gears of War and all 3rd party games will be more or less 1:1 PS4 ports, but with beefed up effects and perfect IQ.

XBone owners will be pissed, but as of now most of them are early adopters with enough money anyway. Those who haven't decided to get a PS4 by then woukd have a really good altenative.

Sounds pretty good and kinda worked for the 360, but at what price? Another round of gigantic R&D and marketing costs, just 3 years too early. Loss of consumer trust as nobody knows what MS would do next, if they fail. And the problem with a lack of first party studios will not change.

It's an absolutely horrendous idea. For starters, they'd be going back to an install base of zero, against a PS4 that will probably have hit at least 25 million by that point. The console will come with a premium price point as it will boast beefed up specfications, so Sony could just drop the price and make it seem ridiculously expensive. Developers will have no incentive to utilise its extra power if they're already making games for the PS4, and is anyone really going to pay significantly more for an Xbox Two with a slightly sturdier frame rate and some extra effects? They'd also be writing off all the investment that they've made on the Xbox One, and irritating their biggest fans in the process.

I mean, if I'd bought an Xbox One looking forward to new Halo games and Gears of War, I'd be pretty peeved if Microsoft then told me that I'd need to buy an Xbox Two some three years later to play them.

It's not happening.

 

[rokkerkory]

9 months in and we are talking about early retirement for X1 already? lol

 

[quetz67]

9 months in and we are talking about early retirement for X1 already? lol

Customers fleeing in hordes after the 2nd console was pretty much a success I can't see how that would not be something to talk about. But I don't see an early successor, I see them leaving the business after this gen or earlier.

 

[Brad Grenz]

I never said it was 5 million a year in my post (why would I if the system hasn't even been around for a year yet?).

You said exactly that:

If MS can continue on getting at least the same amount of sales in just the NA for the whole gen (around 5 Million per year)

And now you're conflating life to date figures with year to date figures AGAIN:

On track to sell a little over 4 Million this year? The system is at 3 million in NA sales alone right now. You honestly think the system will be under 500K for both November and December in NA? Wii U sold close to 500K in North America last December alone and this was (again) when it was was up against the PS4 and Xbox One launches. The Xbox One won't have a better 2014 Holiday season in America than the Wii U last year? I honestly can't agree with that.

As was already pointed out, it's only at about 1.1M in 2014 right now. It will be lucky to cross 1.5M before October. I expect sales to pick up somewhat through the holidays but 3M is still a pretty likely figure for the whole year in America.

I'm sorry but the thought of it happening is absurd. The system is maintaining solid third party support and some of the system's big exclusives aren't coming out until 2016 at the earliest. It would make far more sense to say the Wii U has a high possibility to be replaced (or ended) in 2016 but even that seems like it won't be the case based on what they showed at E3.

Continuing third party support right now is a function of inertia, ease of porting and existing contracts. Besides, the problem isn't third parties, the problem is Microsoft brass. If they think this is ultimately a money loser they will cut their losses. Nintendo does not have the luxury of abandoning WiiU that way. Console gaming isn't a vanity project for them, and at this point that's all Xbox amounts to with current sales.

 

[BKK]

It's an absolutely horrendous idea. For starters, they'd be going back to an install base of zero, against a PS4 that will probably have hit at least 25 million by that point. The console will come with a premium price point as it will boast beefed up specfications, so Sony could just drop the price and make it seem ridiculously expensive. Developers will have no incentive to utilise its extra power if they're already making games for the PS4, and is anyone really going to pay significantly more for an Xbox Two with a slightly sturdier frame rate and some extra effects? They'd also be writing off all the investment that they've made on the Xbox One, and irritating their biggest fans in the process.

I mean, if I'd bought an Xbox One looking forward to new Halo games and Gears of War, I'd be pretty peeved if Microsoft then told me that I'd need to buy an Xbox Two some three years later to play them.

It's not happening.

I think the idea would be that it would just be a souped up XB1, and games would run on either system, just with higher settings on XB1 Xtreme or whatever they want to call it. As most AAA games also get a PC version, where devs have to allow for a wide range of hardware from low to high it wouldn't be too much extra effort for devs. This is the way the industry is heading, with forward and backwards compatibility as consumers come to expect constant product refreshes for platforms such as IOS and Android. It's certainly a big reason why both Microsoft and Sony switched to X86 architecture.

It's not a new idea either, lots of PC Engine games are coded to take advantage of extra RAM when available, but still run with lesser features on consoles without the extra RAM. Lots of Game Boy Color games do this too, with the original Game Boy still being forward compatible with them.

 

[Glorified G]

Do you think HALO MCC or Sunset Overdrive will change something with these numbers ?

Just thinking that Sony´s big exklusives are basically all coming in 2015.

Maybe now MS could get back some of its market share the rest of 2014.

Nevermind the fact that the 3rd party games released this fall will mean much more than just a handfull of exclusives, the lineup between the two this year is nearly identical. Open world third person game (infamous, SO). Racer (Forza, DC). Cross platform games (Titanfall, LBP 3). Re-releases (TLOU, Halo)

If you believe Sony's big exclusives are coming out next year, then the exact same could be said about MS. Largely exclusves are irrelevant anyway.

 

[Bogey]

Introducing a whole new console doesn't make a lot of sense for Microsoft in my opinion. The performance gap of what, 30% maybe? Isn't really worth starting again with a customer base of zero and probably a much higher price.

If performance is a big concern of theirs, I'd just eventually start building xbox ones with slightly improved hardware to be on par with PS4. No need to market this as a brand new console or give it a different name; just sell it as a modernization of the xbox one, just like the xbox slim wasn't really a new console, but just a modification of the existing one.

Then, a crucial aspect would be to only allow games that fully support both the "old" Xbox one as well as the potential new one. All games can be played with the less powerful version, but the better one might offer similar features to PS4 versions (better resolution, higher framerates etc.).

To be fair though, I'm not really sure the performance difference is really the big, deciding problem xbox is having right now. It may be a very reasonable concern around here, but I'm not even sure the average gamer realizes its less powerful when making their purchase decision.
Take Apple, for example. While their products have some validity, I'd guess that >80% of their customers would, from a logical point of view, be better of with competitors' hardware in terms of pricing, speed and at times even functionality. But it's "cool", so people still get it and ignore most rational factors in that decision.
I'd blame a similar factor for Xbox, it just has a horifically terrible reputation. Probably mostly due to the xbox's nightmare pre-launch, e.g. DRM strategy, always-on kinect etc.). Plus of course a certain group effect, you'll want to play with your friends so you'll buy the same console as they're having, so it's somewhat of a self-reinforcing trend that will be more than difficult to break.

 

[serversurfer]

Posts like that make me feel as if some participate in sales threads just for stealth console warring. Such an unlikely thing to happen especially with the system maintaining third party support.

So sales will continue because 3rd-party support will continue. And 3rd-party support will continue because sales will continue?

Is this circular logic, or a self-fulfillilng prophecy?

I never said it was 5 million a year in my post (why would I if the system hasn't even been around for a year yet?). I said that the system should reach 5 Million in American sales before the year is over. And again, this is America alone. While the console isn't doing well in many areas outside of North America, we are talking about the 2014 sales of the system before adding in all those other territories. (At least) 5 Million in worldwide sales before the year is over is a pretty safe prediction for the Xbox One.

Hell, even I would agree that 5M WW LTD through 2014 is a safe prediction. I might even be willing to go as high as 6M. But as Brad points out, you're including the launch sales with their "annual sales." What we're talking about here is annual sales in the 2-3M range, not the 5-6M range. That's quite a difference. With only 3M sales worldwide every year, it will be difficult to maintain enough mindshare to sustain a rate of 3M/yr over the entire generation. So, that 3M/yr may well drop as the years go by. Maybe they sell 3M in 2014, but only 2M in 2015, or whatever.

Really, if the XBone does end up flopping, I could see the Wii U getting a little resurgence as a result. If you're a two-console sort of consumer, the Wii U probably provides a better compliment to your PS4; it's cheaper than XBone, and offers a better variety of games when compared to the PS4.

 

[infiniteheteroskdasticity]

I'm not at all surprised with the numbers. The Xbox One is basically dead in Europe. The 360 had a year's headstart, a lower RRP, better multiplat performance and a big online advantage at the time and still got crushed by the PS3 around the continent. The Xbox One has none of those advantages and had to deal with one of the worst marketing efforts in some time and this is the obvious result.

The Xbox One reveal was so US focused they might as well have colored the console in the stars and stripes and put large NSA stickers on Kinect. The geniuses in their European marketing team believed some weak exclusive content on FIFA and a co marketing effort would be all they'd need to compete there. The recent restructuring of Xbox Europe shows that Microsoft finally gets how badly they screwed up.

There's no way they're going to get anywhere close their 40% target in Germany but there are things they can do to improve their non US performance. They need the 20nm node shrink asap. This would let them make a much smaller SKU and they could drop useless fluff like the HDMI in and cut costs radically. The Xbox One's sweet spot is at around 75% of the price of the PS4 in Europe/UK. It won't outsell it or anything but it will keep them from getting blown away.

 

[On Demand]

9 months in and we are talking about early retirement for X1 already? lol

Imagine the total sales for PS4 in europe vs XB1.

No, MS shouldn't give up. But it's pretty easy to see that PS4 has won WW sales. As you said it's 9 months in but look at the sales gap already.

 

[Bgamer90]

You said exactly that:

I said that after talking about the (good) possibility of Xbox One sales in America reaching and/or being above 5 Million at the end of the year in the US.

I didn't use that to automatically mean 5 Million per year. I just simply said that if sales are 5 Million per year overall that the system should reach 30 Million when the gen is over (that is again, if the gen is long enough).

And now you're conflating life to date figures with year to date figures AGAIN:

As was already pointed out, it's only at about 1.1M in 2014 right now. It will be lucky to cross 1.5M before October. I expect sales to pick up somewhat through the holidays but 3M is still a pretty likely figure for the whole year in America.

Ah, I understand where you are coming from now. I didn't mean it that way. I was talking about overall sales at the end of 2014 (and even said so in my previous post). Not sales in 2014 alone. See now that it was easy to take it that way in my first post. I meant around 5 Million overall per year instead of in just the US. That's with the assumption that sales will rise as more people move into this gen and less cross gen games get made/released.

For example, the PS3 sold about 1 million more in 2008 in the US than it did in 2007 in the US if I remember correctly.

Edit: Ah, also see that I just said "year" instead of "end of the year" in my other post too. Again, my mistake.

Continuing third party support right now is a function of inertia, ease of porting and existing contracts. Besides, the problem isn't third parties, the problem is Microsoft brass. If they think this is ultimately a money loser they will cut their losses. Nintendo does not have the luxury of abandoning WiiU that way. Console gaming isn't a vanity project for them, and at this point that's all Xbox amounts to with current sales.

I just don't see MS cutting support of the Xbox One in 2016. I did make mention in that other thread a few days ago that I could definitely see MS trying to release a successor before the PS5 releases but I can't see that being the case simply two years from now.

 

[Bgamer90]

So sales will continue because 3rd-party support will continue. And 3rd-party support will continue because sales will continue?

Is this circular logic, or a self-fulfillilng prophecy?

3rd party support is helping to sell the system as well as online subscriptions. If sales of the games remain pretty solid then yes, it should keep on getting support in/after 2016.

Hell, even I would agree that 5M WW LTD through 2014 is a safe prediction. I might even be willing to go as high as 6M. But as Brad points out, you're including the launch sales with their "annual sales."...

Yeah, there was a mix-up. I didn't mean it that way.

Really, if the XBone does end up flopping, I could see the Wii U getting a little resurgence as a result. If you're a two-console sort of consumer, the Wii U probably provides a better compliment to your PS4; it's cheaper than XBone, and offers a better variety of games when compared to the PS4.

"Better variety" depends on what someone is interested in but I agree that the Wii U is a better console to have alongside the PS4 than the Xbox One is since there's more differences in features & gaming content.

The Wii U isn't going to "resurge" though in my opinion if it remains the price of a primary console ($300). As you said, many will find it good as a secondary console that compliments the PS4 but it needs to be a cheaper price before that view becomes popular.

____________________

It's an absolutely horrendous idea. For starters, they'd be going back to an install base of zero, against a PS4 that will probably have hit at least 25 million by that point. The console will come with a premium price point as it will boast beefed up specfications, so Sony could just drop the price and make it seem ridiculously expensive. Developers will have no incentive to utilise its extra power if they're already making games for the PS4, and is anyone really going to pay significantly more for an Xbox Two with a slightly sturdier frame rate and some extra effects? They'd also be writing off all the investment that they've made on the Xbox One, and irritating their biggest fans in the process.

I mean, if I'd bought an Xbox One looking forward to new Halo games and Gears of War, I'd be pretty peeved if Microsoft then told me that I'd need to buy an Xbox Two some three years later to play them.

It's not happening.

Agreed. It would put the Xbox brand in a Sega-like situation. I mean, I could see some hardcore gamers being okay with that but many mainstream and/or more casual people would be pretty ticked off.

 

[GameAddict411]

That was the weird thing during that generation. More people had PS3s, but I always felt like the most active people played on 360, which probably helped with sales, too.
That has changed now, of course.

and this is why MS will never reach the X360 greatness ever, the worse thing about it is that MS made it so damn easy for Sony to dominate the market again. they made the worse possible decisions they could ever take, completely forgot what made the X360 so successful and most importantly had the most disastrous PR team in human existence(they made matters much worse instead of cooling the fires that raged for months).

 

[mike4001_]

Well .... Thank you Don :-/

 

[Callibretto]

It's an absolutely horrendous idea. For starters, they'd be going back to an install base of zero, against a PS4 that will probably have hit at least 25 million by that point. The console will come with a premium price point as it will boast beefed up specfications, so Sony could just drop the price and make it seem ridiculously expensive. Developers will have no incentive to utilise its extra power if they're already making games for the PS4, and is anyone really going to pay significantly more for an Xbox Two with a slightly sturdier frame rate and some extra effects? They'd also be writing off all the investment that they've made on the Xbox One, and irritating their biggest fans in the process.

I mean, if I'd bought an Xbox One looking forward to new Halo games and Gears of War, I'd be pretty peeved if Microsoft then told me that I'd need to buy an Xbox Two some three years later to play them.

It's not happening.

what if they make all xbox1 games forward compatible with xboxone 2? it's basically pc with different spec, the xbox1-2 get to play all xbox1 games in 1080p 60fps

 

[Guymelef]

what if they make all xbox1 games forward compatible with xboxone 2? it's basically pc with different spec, the xbox1-2 get to play all xbox1 games in 1080p 60fps

That's not how it works

 

[Boombloxer]

It's a really simple fact that swapping over console bases isn't really like phones.

All it does is make people mad and not purchase it. It can break, but if you announce "this is a new box because our shit isn't selling", not that many people will have confidence in the platform, which is what happened with Sega.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Sony is really starting to pull out in front. The difference between 2nd and 3rd place this gen is looking to be less significant than the difference between 1st and 2nd will be.

Microsoft's biggest issue is that their relevance is so confined to so few markets at this point, and even in those markets they are struggling to maintain relevance.

Their success last gen appears to have been largely the result of huge blunders by Sony rather than a strong affinity for their platform/brand.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

It's a really simple fact that swapping over console bases isn't really like phones.

All it does is make people mad and not purchase it. It can break, but if you announce "this is a new box because our shit isn't selling", not that many people will have confidence in the platform, which is what happened with Sega.

So how come the Xbox 360 sold so well after the original Xbox was unceremoniously dropped after a short life?

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

So how come the Xbox 360 sold so well after the original Xbox was unceremoniously dropped after a short life?

Well Xbox -> Xbox 360 was only 4 years, which was considered short at the time, but not hugely off the 5 or so years of previous generations. So by that timescale 2017 would be the earliest that MS could release a successor to the Xbone. Also the 360 didn't come roaring out of the gates, it took a while to gain the momentum that carried it to where it ended up, aided by Sony messing up so spectacularly with the early years of the PS3.

However I think the Xbox's short lifespan wasn't a big of a deal as it could have been due to the generation having already shifted in 2000 with the release of the PS2. As an individual console the Xbox had a shortened lifespan, but the generational lifespan was largely the same as it had always been (and that's not including the Dreamcast which could push it back as early as 1998, depending on which launch you want to take it from).

With the WiiU being a non-starter so far, I think this generation only really started last year with the PS4/Xbone launch. If MS were to try a shortened lifespan this time, I think the perception of such would be a lot greater than the Xbox -> 360 lifespan.

 

[Leyasu]

"supreme victory"

My thoughts are that this gen will follow the OG xbox.. Over in 4 years, and the xbone buried in neveda.. Which is good because I want a real successor to the 360.. And the xbone aint it

I only own an xbone by the way

 

[michaelius]

So how come the Xbox 360 sold so well after the original Xbox was unceremoniously dropped after a short life?

Mainly because Sony fucked up PS3.

 

[Leyasu]

Mainly because Sony fucked up PS3.

And microsoft fucked up the bone..

It will be super interesting next gen. Micorosft will be out of the door before sony me thinks

 

[Night Angel]

And microsoft fucked up the bone..

It will be super interesting next gen. Micorosft will be out of the door before sony me thinks

Just like this gen, eh? And it'll have better specs, too, because MS has all the money and Sony is poor.

And don't even get me started on all of the 3rd party exclusives it will get.

 

[EGM1966]

So how come the Xbox 360 sold so well after the original Xbox was unceremoniously dropped after a short life?

Couple of points.

Dropping your first entry into a market when it's already faltering is relatively easy - you don't have enough market share or brand presence to annoy your customers. Dropping an entry after you're established and known in the market is a different affair. With the OG Cbox MS had nothing to risk killing it, this time they would because of how long 360 was on the market.

To be blunt Sony errors vs MS good moves had a lot more to do with the success of 360 than most fans would be happy to accept. The 360 didn't really take off until after PS3 released (in US & UK) and the market could compare them and PSN vs Live. Once Sony gifted MS with a series of blunders they never caught up on those markets.

OG Xbox delivered 4 years - probably the absolute minimum the market would accept. People are suggesting killing the Xbox One after 3 years or less - that's very likely to see a backlash.

360 release timed with early days of HD TVs and was for a long time the only showcase device from gaming perspective of note.


I just don't see a quick swap working this time. Not only that but this time around if MS shoved out a quick BC update then Sony could do the same and would be building on the bigger base.

I feel MS are going to have to stick it out for 4 years minimum and then try and grab an earlier launch than Sony.

Personally though I think with 360 they caught a bit if a perfect storm in US and UK and I'm not sure I see that happening again unless they find a way to catch those markets at the right time again.

 

[NastyBook]

#4DieSpieler

LMAO! I wasn't expecting this.

 

[Duster]

I can't see MS releasing a new console early, I think a lot of their current issues stem from a lack of trust following RRoD, the initial XB1 "vision" and other more minor problems.
I think they need to rebuild that trust gradually over time by being as consumer friendly as possible so killing a console early or screwing over early adopters (again?) with a two-tier system would be the last straw for many.

 

[clutch.as.it.gets.]

I just think MS deserve their lack of success. Xbox for me was about three important pillars: hardcore gaming, powerful hardware and online.

With xbox one they killed off the first two ("TvTvTv", "'We purposefully did not target the highest end graphics") and were even able to turn online into a big minus in form of online DRM to turn the xbox one into a rental machine with games with expiration dates.

Like i said: well deserved, MS.

 

[Boke1879]

Sony is really starting to pull out in front. The difference between 2nd and 3rd place this gen is looking to be less significant than the difference between 1st and 2nd will be.

Microsoft's biggest issue is that their relevance is so confined to so few markets at this point, and even in those markets they are struggling to maintain relevance.

Their success last gen appears to have been largely the result of huge blunders by Sony rather than a strong affinity for their platform/brand.

Exactly. A year headstart and an overpriced PS3 really helped MS. This time they don't suffer the same luxuries.

 

[unknownstranger]

I don't see how launching a new system a year before Sony would help Microsoft. Unless they know exactly what Sony is doing with PS5, launching a year earlier than it will likely let Sony launch with much better hardware. The same perception would happen again except for Microsoft getting a head start, which I'm not sure would make a big enough difference.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

Couple of points.

Dropping your first entry into a market when it's already faltering is relatively easy - you don't have enough market share or brand presence to annoy your customers. Dropping an entry after you're established and known in the market is a different affair. With the OG Cbox MS had nothing to risk killing it, this time they would because of how long 360 was on the market.

To be blunt Sony errors vs MS good moves had a lot more to do with the success of 360 than most fans would be happy to accept. The 360 didn't really take off until after PS3 released (in US & UK) and the market could compare them and PSN vs Live. Once Sony gifted MS with a series of blunders they never caught up on those markets.

OG Xbox delivered 4 years - probably the absolute minimum the market would accept. People are suggesting killing the Xbox One after 3 years or less - that's very likely to see a backlash.

360 release timed with early days of HD TVs and was for a long time the only showcase device from gaming perspective of note.


I just don't see a quick swap working this time. Not only that but this time around if MS shoved out a quick BC update then Sony could do the same and would be building on the bigger base.

I feel MS are going to have to stick it out for 4 years minimum and then try and grab an earlier launch than Sony.

Personally though I think with 360 they caught a bit if a perfect storm in US and UK and I'm not sure I see that happening again unless they find a way to catch those markets at the right time again.

Ok good points. I do understand how with the original Xbox it was much different circumstances.

But aside from the original Xbox, we haven't seen how MS reacts when they have a console that is selling poorly compared to the market leader. Who knows what they are thinking right now with the Xbone.

But I just genuinely can't see them committing to a long game plan with the XB1 a la how Sony did with the PS3 to slowly turn things around. Part of the reason for this is because the Xbone was envisioned as something that would catch fire with the mainstream and expand on their 360 userbase in every way. Now that that goal looks impossible I don't think they'll just be content now to chase the much smaller hardcore fanbase with 40-50 million sales WW and slowly turn things around over the course of 4-5 years. That is not what MS are in this business for. Sony on the other hand has no choice. They either commit for the long term with the PS4 and make it a success or they start a slide that leads them to going out of business entirely.

 

[Bundy]

Already mentioned, but:

+ A few weeks ago, the PS4 was still not available (sold out) in germany at retail and is currently again sold out in every german Media Markt, because of the -19% event

+ Amazon Germany is the No.1 import source for most of the EU countries, if you want a Xbone

So imagine how these numbers would look like if the PS4 was in stock since the start of 2014 + remove the Xbones, which have been imported.

End of story: The sales gap would be much MUCH bigger :-O
And it's getting bigger as we speak (as mentioned, die Media Markt -19% deal was huge in germany).
It really was this all over again, a few days ago:

 

[Boombloxer]

Well, you mentioned the real question and goal in your last paragraph.

It's a different world, so looking at the battle for the living room is not exactly their goal--it's cloud and mobile now. So if the original plan didn't work, how will the brand be leveraged to adapt to that? Should it be tied to more hardware? After say, 4 years of these kinds of Ls, it is worth continuing? Is there anything that can be done?

All hard questions.

 

[get2sammyb]

Ok good points. I do understand how with the original Xbox it was much different circumstances.

But aside from the original Xbox, we haven't seen how MS reacts when they have a console that is selling poorly compared to the market leader. Who knows what they are thinking right now with the Xbone.

But I just genuinely can't see them committing to a long game plan with the XB1 a la how Sony did with the PS3 to slowly turn things around. Part of the reason for this is because the Xbone was envisioned as something that would catch fire with the mainstream and expand on their 360 userbase in every way. Now that that goal looks impossible I don't think they'll just be content now to chase the much smaller hardcore fanbase with 40-50 million sales WW and slowly turn things around over the course of 4-5 years. That is not what MS are in this business for. Sony on the other hand has no choice. They either commit for the long term with the PS4 and make it a success or they start a slide that leads them to going out of business entirely.

So, what is their goal, then? Why are they going to plough billions of dollars into launching another system so soon after they've just done the same for the Xbox One? To beat Sony - a Japanese electronics manufacturer that's otherwise in dire straits? It just doesn't make sense.

 

[FacelessSamurai]

Xbone will be replaced by Xtwo in 2017 at the earliest, maybe even in 2018. Console will sell between 30 and 40 million worldwide, so not a huge success, but more than OG Xbox and more than enough for MS to stay in the business (they've been making games for much longer than they've been making consoles, they are in it for the long haul imo).

MS' game division has a much better team than at Xbone launch, so gaming focused system with multimedia features and multitasking like Xbone with specs competitors can't match (hardware sold at a loss), crazy marketing, more paid exclusives, and same price as competitors. Boom.gif

 

[Kazuma Kiryu]

MS' game division has a much better team than at Xbone launch, so gaming focused system with multimedia features and multitasking like Xbone with specs competitors can't match (hardware sold at a loss), crazy marketing, more paid exclusives, and same price as competitors. Boom.gif

You mean like now?

 

[Bgamer90]

But aside from the original Xbox, we haven't seen how MS reacts when they have a console that is selling poorly compared to the market leader.

Couldn't we say the same for the Xbox 360 too though? There were multiple months in which the Wii sold double what the 360 did in NA alone. I want to even say there were a few months in which the Wii sold almost triple since I remember a non-Holiday month in which the Wii was over 800,000 for NPD.

_____________________

Xbone will be replaced by Xtwo in 2017 at the earliest, maybe even in 2018. Console will sell between 30 and 40 million worldwide, so not a huge success, but more than OG Xbox and more than enough for MS to stay in the business (they've been making games for much longer than they've been making consoles, they are in it for the long haul imo).

I agree with this; 2017-2018 at the earliest.

 

[Night Angel]

MS' game division has a much better team than at Xbone launch, so gaming focused system with multimedia features and multitasking like Xbone with specs competitors can't match (hardware sold at a loss), crazy marketing, more paid exclusives, and same price as competitors. Boom.gif

Aren't a lot of the same faces still there?
Why would investors be open to selling hardware at a loss?
They already have crazy marketing.
They already have paid exclusives, and once more, where is this money coming from?

I don't understand where this idea that MS will surely outdo Sony comes from.

 

[Chobel]

Couldn't we say the same for the Xbox 360 too though? There were multiple months in which the Wii sold double what the 360 did in NA alone. I want to even say there were a few months in which the Wii sold almost triple since I remember a non-Holiday month in which the Wii was over 800,000 for NPD.

Not really, Wii wasn't really competing with X360. Wii went for casual gamers, X360/PS3 went for core gamers.

 

[Boombloxer]

Aren't a lot of the same faces still there?
Why would investors be open to selling hardware at a loss?
They already have crazy marketing.
They already have paid exclusives, and once more, where is this money coming from?

I don't understand where this idea that MS will surely outdo Sony comes from.

Not sure. But coming off a 30m unit gen is different from a 100m units gen.

 

[Bgamer90]

Not really, Wii wasn't really competing with X360. Wii went for casual gamers, X360/PS3 went for core gamers.

The systems were definitely different but I would still say they competed with each other. Nintendo had a plan to try and be #1 just like MS and Sony did back then. Wii also took a good chunk of people (many PS2 owners in fact) away from buying an Xbox 360 or PS3 during the beginning of the gen.

 

[Abdiel]

Xbone will be replaced by Xtwo in 2017 at the earliest, maybe even in 2018. Console will sell between 30 and 40 million worldwide, so not a huge success, but more than OG Xbox and more than enough for MS to stay in the business (they've been making games for much longer than they've been making consoles, they are in it for the long haul imo).

MS' game division has a much better team than at Xbone launch, so gaming focused system with multimedia features and multitasking like Xbone with specs competitors can't match (hardware sold at a loss), crazy marketing, more paid exclusives, and same price as competitors. Boom.gif

Why would Microsoft choose to throw money down a hole like this? They refused to take a loss on the console at time of release, despite 'not targeting the highest end graphics' in the first place. Even their 'price cut' takes out the source of almost, if not all of the difference in the price between the SKUs.

The entire premise is just flawed, and makes no sense. It's not a business venture MS gets anything out of. You're talking about taking what would be an overall loss for this generation, and then promptly throwing even MORE money at the division? It'd be a farce. If MS chooses to stay in the industry (and I'm not saying they're going to bow out, either) they're not going to do so by using tactics that would require even more aggressive cost sacrifices on their side.

Neither Sony or MS is working on the same principles as before, with heavy loss-leading hardware, but with MS, the entire gaming division represents what amounts to a drop in the bucket. If that drop becomes a drain instead, the possibility of the division being axed/sold becomes distinct.

 

[Night Angel]

wise words

Yep. Reads like a fan fiction.