Lol, you're not taking in to account limited, deluxe and collectors editions, micro transactions and other variables as well. Your posts continue to be poorly thought out.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Halo 5 sales in the UK [Excludes digital sales]
- Thread starter Kathian
- Start date
Lol, you're not taking in to account limited, deluxe and collectors editions, micro transactions and other variables as well. Your posts continue to be poorly thought out.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
Man, this is pretty sad seeing people wishing Spectre to fail.
Obliterator
Member
No we do not know that. You keep saying this with no evidence
Like I keep on saying, I KNOW ITS NOT ACCURATE. Although, just from sheer quantity of the different editions and the volume it sells, it's not going to bump the average that higher considering you can also pick the game up for £35! Even if it was higher, there's no chance its 20%.
Disprove me with evidence, rather than being like 'lol'. That makes you 'hilariously bad'.
Refer to the maths I did on the previous pages. Disprove that and then you can say that.
Bottom line: If the average price was around 41-45 for the whole nation, that means physically the game would of sold practically nothing in days 2-7.
EDIT: I give up now. I'll wait for any hard data to comment on this.
The Mad Draklor
Member
We cannot say that with absolute certainty. We have no empirical evidence that suggests either way. However, just because we don't know, doesn't mean we automatically assume the digital rate is over 20%. That's textbook Appeal to Ignorance fallacy.
The burden of proof is on the person making the positive claim (e.g. digital rate is over 20% "by a chunk").
Obliterator
Member
Keep in mind one console sale bundle is equivalent to 8 copies of the game and those are surely included in the revenue figure
n0razi
Member
CoD/BF/Destiny all took a good chunk
Throughout this thread, people have posted sales split figures from numerous other games in the UK, as well as studies that record statistics of the split based on polling. We cannot know the percentage breakdown for Halo 5, because we do not have that information, but we do have historic data and statistical precedence that people have used to estimate, but they are just that, little more than estimates.
Your evidence thus far has been anecdotal based on your own friends list, even though you all share games and buy from the US store instead of the UK one in the first place! Yet you initially used that to assume digital sales would be greater than retail sales. Now you are using broken logic and maths to formulate yet another wonky theory, masquerading as fact, and asking others to provide evidence to the contrary, when there is none.
Silver lining for Craig though. He won't have to slit his wrists.
Xbox/Halo (same thing) fans were so sure (praying) that Halo 5 was going to do Halo 3 or even Halo 4 numbers, yet it sold 30-50k or more less than ODST. I really don't know where people were seeing any large amounts of hype for this game. People were so sure that it was going to break records or at least live up to sales expectations that anyone who pointed out the lack of hype even with the countless marketing tactics were marked down as trolling. Not only that, but a couple goof balls are in such denial of these poor Halo sales that they've actually claimed digital to be either bigger than physical or anywhere above 20%, which would be the highest case. That's some good stuff.
ShogunDarius
Member
How does that work? I'm confused
Katana_Strikes
Member
Then stop posting it, it's not taking in to equation what the revenue entails just based on an average price band for just the game itself. You could be widely off and until you have hard facts then your workings out are nothing but worthless.
It doesn't work. No one knows what is included in the 1 day revenue figure, so there isn't much point in debating it. Sure they could include every single thing that has the Halo 5 name on it (the halo 5 bundle, Req packs, even merchandise), or it could just be game purchases. Impossible to tell without more info.
Maintenance
Member
So they spun it by saying revenue instead? Good job.
Oh that must be it then. All those £39 sales are bringing down the average price to £40.
/s
Obliterator
Member
The day 1 revenue will include anything Halo 5 related. Regular copies, CEs, bundles etc.
Do you know this somehow, or are you assuming just because you think they would want to report the biggest number that they can - even if misleading?
Obliterator
Member
Because all sales PR works that way. Activision will do the exact same thing for BO3. The revenue is always higher than the average price of the game × units
Standard practice in virtually all industries when reporting revenue. So, not misleading.
MS might have incompetent PR in Europe. They fired everyone and farmed it out, right? It could just be game sales. Not likely, but possible.
Just seems odd to me to include bundles, being that the far greater portion of what you are purchasing has nothing to do with the game. You could be right, but still hard for me to believe. Also. People received those bundles before launch day, so including them in a 1 day total is pretty disingenuous.
Edit: *many people
EzekelRAGE
Member
But the bundle may be why they are purchasing the game, so it would be counted in with the revenue for anything related to that game. Also even if bundles and stuff sold before *day 1*, it is still most likely grouped with day 1/week 1 sales.
Nah, I don't think it's revisionist at all. Halo was the face of Xbox back then too (even moreso). I'm not saying that MS shouldn't have expected more than they got... but expecting to replicate Halo 3 today is wishful thinking imo. Halo 3 only had CoD4 as a viable competitor, and CoD4 was the challenger to the throne that year, not the series that's spent the last decade almost as the defacto FPS standard. Expecting to match that year whilst fending off not only the much bigger CoD of today, but also the recent release of a new edition of Destiny and a huge mp focused Star Wars... combined with the console being outsold by the PS4 (whereas the PS3 was barely a factor at Halo 3's launch)... I don't think it's revisionist to say that matching Halo 3 would not be a very smart bet to be making at any point in Halo 5's life.... and that's ignoring that it's following on from Halo 4 and MCC, rather than Halo 2.
Like I said before... Sega may have missed all that until the first week's sales come in... but nobody else should have.
Primethius
Banned
Look at the sales data for all the Halo titles in their launch weeks. They all pull pretty high, consistent numbers. To suggest that Halo 4 only did comparable numbers because of install base is frankly only speculative and I think we'll just have to agree to disagree. All titles have a dedicated userbase that buys the title at launch. What you see as Halo 4 selling the same as prior titles due to an increase in install size, I see the consistent Halo userbase that buys Halo titles continuing to do so.
You keep suggesting that Halo's not as big as it was and that MS should have known this. But you're not really offering any evidence to suggest this prior to these numbers. Yea, with hindsight, everything is crystal clear and we can clearly see that the franchise has declined. But no one really expected such a drastic, massive decline.
And I visit the NPD threads, the PAL threads and the Media Create threads. I don't recall anyone suggesting such a massive drop off for the franchise. Most would have pegged it to launch at pretty crazy numbers. Now if you predicted it somewhere, I'd love to see that. But otherwise, we're really just arguing about stuff in hindsight with the benefit of the numbers and no evidence to suggest otherwise.
[Week 11, 2002] HALO: COMBAT EVOLVED (MICROSOFT) – NO DATA
[Week 46, 2004] HALO 2 (MICROSOFT) - 260,000
[Week 39, 2007] HALO 3 (MICROSOFT) - 370,000
[Week 09, 2009] HALO WARS (MICROSOFT) - 65,000
[Week 39, 2009] HALO 3: ODST (MICROSOFT) - 212,000
[Week 37, 2010] HALO: REACH (MICROSOFT) - 390,000
[Week 46, 2011] HALO: COMBAT EVOLVED ANNIVERSARY – 48,000
[Week 45, 2012] HALO 4 (MICROSOFT) - 336,000
[Week 46, 2014] HALO: THE MASTER CHIEF COLLECTION (MICROSOFT) – 96,000
[Week 44, 2015] HALO 5: GUARDIANS (MICROSOFT) - 150,000
Look at the numbers. Yea, it seems pretty clear it's revisionist. MS shouldn't expect numbers like Halo 3/4/Reach? Or even numbers close to ODST? They should only expect numbers 50k more then a remaster? Like, I'm impressed some of you gents predicted this decline of Halo. I'd love to see you guys make more predictions like this in sales thread. We need insight like this.
So Halo 5 did about 206,000 copies day 1?
Never mind, 206K is day 1, 150K is week 1.
Basically this...
I don't think you can do much with the revenue figures outside of a simple comparison of revenue. Too many variables between today's market and 2004.
ph1l0z0ph3r
Member
I do think digital sales play a part but more in terms of people game sharing and only 1 person having to buy the game for 2 people to get access to it.
What you are seeing at the launches of Halo 2 -4 isn't just dedicated userbase. It's dedicated userbase + increasingly massive numbers of new users.
Halo3 sold a ton, largely in part thanks to a shit ton of people new to halo buying it. How do you think it went from 260,000 with H2 to 370,000 with H3? New players of course...
No, it'd be revisionist if I claimed that the sales of previous games were not what they actually are. Attributing reasons to it isn't revising history... especially when "hindsight" causes it to all make perfect sense. Any discussion for Halo 4 being bolstered by userbase is no more speculative than your claim that it's a result of maintaining the same core userbase, as prior to Halo Reach it was actively growing due to new players climbing on board.
I don't generally bother making predictions, so for example I don't have a post in that thread about how Halo 5 would fare, but my lack of a prediction in either direction doesn't automatically count as a likely prediction that it'd match prior entries... that's silly. There have been tons of predictions of Halo 5 showing a significant decline as a result of the console's position in the market, MCC issues, and games it would be launching near... just like there's many predictions of RoTR suffering similarly... it's not like everyone was claiming it'll break records (or even remain stagnant), so I'm not sure why you're acting like it was something that nobody considered in their wildest dreams.
Well I got $37.31 as the unit value from the Halo 2 numbers, and then did 7.7mil/37.31 and got 206K copies.
$37.31 sounds about right for the cut, right?
Any reason why you have completely ignored the talk in here that the revenue number for Halo 5 includes microtransaction and more expensive versions revenue? I even replied to your previous post in this thread with that fact. It's impossible to deduce a unit sales number from this revenue number. All you can do is make an estimate for the absolute maximum possible number.
Primethius
Banned
As I said, it's all speculative. There's no evidence either way to support either position. What we know is that Halo has maintained fairly consistent numbers throughout the years. See the rest of my post bellow on the rest of the matter.
Sorry, I haven't seen a single prediction that says that Halo 5 will suffer an over 50% decline in launch sales. Nor even suggestions of the sort. A decline? Sure. People expected some sort of decline. But there's a difference between a 10-20% decline and one over 50%.
There's nothing wrong with ascribing reasons to why the game fell. I've done that too. What I'm arguing about is how ridiculous the notion is that people predicted the franchise would decline 50%. And hey, I already stated, if you predicted this decline, more power to you. But it comes as a surprise to the vast majority of people in the sales threads (and I'm sure MS included).
Edit: I'm an idiot, ignore.
I think bombshell is right. There are more variables in play today than when Halo 2 launched. I think ultimately it's not only revenue from microtransactions but also LE, CE and potentially console bundles which muddle up the water too much. Revenue wise there is a pretty good chance Halo 5 might ultimately surpass all the previous entries in the series depending if Req packs take off. However, if we are talking units sold Halo 5 seems to be below 2 and potentially ODST in the UK.
Right ok. So how many predictions DID give a percentage? Are people's predictions here ever that specific? Do people say RoTR is gonna suffer X%, or do they just say it's fucked because of Fallout 4?
And again, I'm not saying that everyone foresaw the current drop. But this discussion is sparked by an apparent expectation for the game to essentially match the series peak. It already dropped with the prior numbered entry, and then that entry had the population crater, and then the next game released broken causing the sales to be impacted AND the population to be impacted again... so I think predicting the next point on the graph to actually reverse course (on a younger, less populated platform), makes so little sense I can't believe we're still actually discussing it. But hey.. if that's what MS thought, then that's what they thought.
What do you mean there's no evidence either way? Halo 2 sold 260,000 on day one Halo 3 sold 110,000 more than that...
How else can you have such an increase without bringing in new people?
So even if Halo 4 did do well thanks to support from some base, it's immediately clear that people who were new to 360 at H4's launch weren't as excited for Halo as were new 360 owners at H3's launch. That's evident by the minimal effect installed base had on launch numbers.
It's not rocket science. It's not speculative. Look at all of the numbers available, and you see a clear decline in interest.
Can't say I predicted a 50% decline in interest (which I don't think is the case anyway) but expecting H5 to mirror H3, given the state of the industry, is nonsense.
Primethius
Banned
I wasn't arguing for it to match the series peak. Just that the expectation for numbers was considerably higher (300k+).
I mean... does that not make sense to you? Halo 3 was the peak because it was bringing in new people. ODST/Reach/4 all maintained the userbase. Halo 5 saw a 50% decline.
And I've said this before and I'll say it again. If you predicted an over 50% decline for the series with Halo 5, more power to you. Most of all the predictions and discussions on the matter I read predicted much better numbers. Halo 3 peak numbers? No. But this level of decline? No way.
Well, that was kinda the context of Trup1aya's post that I quoted and agreed with. Although I'd even say that 300k is very (very) optimistic as that would be very little decline from Halo 4 (relative to Halo Reach) considering all the other non-invisible factors since then.
I think them all bringing in new people makes sense, and that new people help to offset other people leaving. That sounds far more likely as a console is acquiring tens of millions of new users, rather than there be practically zero drop-off AND practically zero new blood over the span of 3 entries... and then magically a huge drop off once something that would filter out later console purchasers occurs.
There's a reason we see so many cross-gen games that stay somewhat in the expected range, rather than rise by whatever the last-gen versions sell.
Saying ODST/Reach/4 "maintained the userbase" is speculative... It's more likely launch week sales remained relatively consisent because departures from the base were offset by exponential growth of the Xbox 360 installed base.
Baffled by the fact people keep minimalizing the impact of installed base on software sales... why to multiplats sell much more on Ps4? Because there are more PS4s obviously. But it's unfathomable that H4 sold like H3 largely due to the fact that there were 4 times more Xbox 360s when H4 came out. Yeah ok!
darkinstinct
...lacks reading comprehension.
More people buying day 1/week 1 does not mean more people buying overall. Halo CE was a long seller, it averaged 50k copies a month for two years in the US alone.
Primethius
Banned
In my very reply, I mention 300k.
And again, now we're just arguing decline percentages with the benefit of hindsight. And that's cool and all. But it's with the benefit of hindsight.
I mean, yes? It's speculative. I'm not sure what we're even arguing about anymore. I've said this time and time again, if you predicted a 50% decline. More power to you, but guess what? Most people, including MS, did not. And unless you have a prediction stowed away somewhere that you can point to, this is all coming across as empty rhetoric with the benefit of hindsight. I have no intention of debating with you about things like this.
Iorv3th
Member
You have to remember that 260,000 for H2 is just the launch week. The dedicated fan base surely grew more than just from launch week sales. I don't know what the official lifetime numbers for halo 2 are, but
chartz (i know) list them at over 8million
I don't agree the state of the industry has nothing to do with it, it's the state of the halo franchise and the recent games from the series.
Those are the two main factors if there is such a significant decline.
It's not the benefit of hindsight... The fact that sales of halo games didn't increase with Xbox installed base shows a decline in the titles strength.
No I can't say I predicted a 50% decline. Never gave it that much thought honestly... But given the installed base of the Xbox 1, THE ONLY WAY it could possible do H3 numbers is if it garnered a similar amount of excitement t as H3. The installed bases are nearly identical. The excitement levels aren't even close. Expectations need to consider those facts...
Oh so the fact that there is a lot more competition in the FPS market is irrelevant... Ok.
Sure. And the not so dedicated fan base likely grew with it...
Totally agree. Too easy say this AFTER the numbers are out. I ALWAYS made predictions numbers.
Similar threads
- Locked