Support NeoGAF

[Obscuritas]

Exactly.

The idea that some believe there was a Rasputin like person leading all of Nintendo down the 100m path no one else wanted to go down is one of the more hilarious things I've read around here.

Didn't you know, last time I was walking around their HQ I was able to get in and forecast 10+ million copies for Star Fox Zero. Someone called Shigeru wanted to promote me, too.

 

[MuchoMalo]

Given Miyamoto's fondness for Star Fox Zero in his recent interview, I wouldn't be surprised if it was him.

Now I want to know who made this projection and is he fired yet

Thinking about it, I don't think that Miyamoto actually made the predition, but I think he may have played a huge part in Wii U's hardware and was told to back off as a result. It's not like they could fire the man himself, after all. Nintendo isn't Konami.

 

[Jimrpg]

Sad excuse for a company.

 

[FyreWulff]

Imagine being in the gaming press right now and having to interview anyone from Nintendo, maintaining a friendly demeanour about Wii U or NX, knowing full well that really you should be taking the piss out of them and calling them out on their bullshit failure and antiquated approach to gaming.

it's a shame there's no real journalism in gaming press.

they're the only ones not going multiplatform with their first party titles or desperately consolidating divisions and property to keep the lights on

for being antiquated they be doin jus fin

 

[Hermii]

I still think calling it Wii U was a huge mistake.
Wii 2 however might have had a completely different reaction.

If they called it Wii 2, just kept iterating on the Wiimote instead of having a gamepad and either made it cheaper or more powerful or both would have been a better plan. Still woudnt have sold near 100 million ofcourse.

 

[RootCause]

That's pretty wild. 😮

 

[Omnistalgic]

it sounds nuts, but the consensus in 2010 and 2011 when they were probably making these sales estimates was a different world than 2012 and 2013. the bottom fell out big time when nintendo stopped supporting the wii's new market in 2010 and the casual 360 crowd jumped onto the ps4 in 2013.

it was a popular sentiment here that nintendo would or could top the market, and not that they'd wind up in third place on the console side. i was pessimistic from the start, and even my guess was far higher than what happened in reality: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769

Lol so many Sony is dead...sometimes GAF really doesn't know wtf they are talking about. I wasn't browsing then, but I definitely never thought Sony was in trouble to the degree of exiting the console market, I was very much looking forward to their next console and thought it had the best exclusives already by then. Dunno what that consensus on GAF was about. Maybe it was because Sony the company was losing a lot of money every year and PS3 wasn't the top dog. Still it was waay overblown, just like this NX prediction. It's Nintendo, they could do anything lol.

I'm going conservative and saying they will replicate their sales of 3DS and WiiU somehow with NX.

 

[Berrigal]

What's 85 million units between friends?

 

[mckmas8808]

They should fire whoever thought that and hire me. I could have told them it wasn't going to sell 100 million before it ever hit the market.

The bad part is the Wii barely sold 100 million units.

 

[darkinstinct]

I mean, I can see the logic in

- We made a console called the Wii
- It sold like gangbusters
- We're making a new console that ALSO has the word "Wii" in it
- SURELY it'll also sell like gangbusters.

Nintendo had believed that the massive sales of the Wii had re-created a level of brand awareness they haven't had since the late 80s/early 90s. I think they honestly needed something like the WiiU to make them see otherwise.

It's what Microsoft did. They sold 20 million Kinect sensors in a year, they sold many more Xbox 360 after Kinect released, they thought if they put a Kinect 2.0 in every SKU for Xbox One it will sell gangbusters. That's the problem with numbers and statistics, they only tell a representation, not the representation. If they had taken the time to actually listen to their customers (the ones that bought a Wii or a Kinect) they would've found out that it's novelty wore off fast and that they prefer a classic gaming console. Considering Microsoft is now tracking everything you ever do they seem to have learned. I don't know about Nintendo, they still seem to think that they need a gadget to gain attention. Personally as a customer I am at a point where I want them to either make a real console (powerful, competitive) so I can do all my gaming there or they should just go third party and release their games everywhere. I won't buy the fourth Nintendo console in a row that has little to no third party support or inferior versions. Nintendo themselfs releases maybe four games that I am interested in over a console life cycle. That's not worth buying a console for.

 

[mckmas8808]

It's what Microsoft did. They sold 20 million Kinect sensors in a year, they sold many more Xbox 360 after Kinect released, they thought if they put a Kinect 2.0 in every SKU for Xbox One it will sell gangbusters. That's the problem with numbers and statistics, they only tell a representation, not the representation. If they had taken the time to actually listen to their customers (the ones that bought a Wii or a Kinect) they would've found out that it's novelty wore off fast and that they prefer a classic gaming console. Considering Microsoft is now tracking everything you ever do they seem to have learned. I don't know about Nintendo, they still seem to think that they need a gadget to gain attention. Personally as a customer I am at a point where I want them to either make a real console (powerful, competitive) so I can do all my gaming there or they should just go third party and release their games everywhere. I won't buy the fourth Nintendo console in a row that has little to no third party support or inferior versions. Nintendo themselfs releases maybe four games that I am interested in over a console life cycle. That's not worth buying a console for.

This should be a good point to remember that just doing version 2.0 doesn't work in the console space.

You have to keep redefining yourself.

 

[bachikarn]

I mean, I can see the logic in

- We made a console called the Wii
- It sold like gangbusters
- We're making a new console that ALSO has the word "Wii" in it
- SURELY it'll also sell like gangbusters.

Nintendo had believed that the massive sales of the Wii had re-created a level of brand awareness they haven't had since the late 80s/early 90s. I think they honestly needed something like the WiiU to make them see otherwise.

I think if it was called Wii 2, it probably would have sold a lot more. The guys logic of it being a successor of the Wii means it should sell well is not inherently flawed (100M was obviously a huge stretch). As several people have mentioned, it seems like Nintendo did not understand their own branding and did not realize most people would not think of Wii U as a Wii successor. This was very obvious after their first E3 showing, but inexplicably, they decided to stay with the name. I used to completely disagree with the idea that Nintendo lucked into the DS and Wii, but their actions with the 3DS and Wii U make me think it was a lot of luck.

 

[Zombie James]

I think if it was called Wii 2, it probably would have sold a lot more.

I think it's silly to think the Wii U would have been a success if it had a different name. The Wii U's problems extend far beyond its name.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

I think it's silly to think the Wii U would have been a success if it had a different name. The Wii U's problems extend far beyond its name.

It might have alleviated some of the initial confusion, but yeah at the end of the day people simply didn't want the Wii U as a product. You don't fail as massively as it did because of a name. It was a failure from conception.

 

[bachikarn]

I think it's silly to think the Wii U would have been a success if it had a different name. The Wii U's problems extend far beyond its name.

Don't get me wrong. It would have been a failure, but it would have still sold more initially IMO. People didn't even know what it was. With proper leveraging of the branding, it would have done better, but still no where no as close as the Wii.

 

[low-G]

Nintendo was still in 2007 mindset thinking they carved out a new market.

They created a gimmick. People left, as they always do. Boom, failure.

Same deal with mobile gaming. It's a flash in the pan thing.

To retain customers you have to create quality products. That's something they stopped during the Wii era, for the most part. Now that they created amazing Wii U stuff, surprise surprise, only the people who have decided to give them a chance since the NES days, like me, are still around.

 

[Sulik2]

Nintendo marketing and sales run by idiots confirmed.

 

[AquaWateria]

I still don't understand why some people believe Nintendo should release a top of the line hardware in terms of specs. Unlike Sony or Microsoft who have the ability to fall back to other parts of their conpany, Nintendo can't. They're solely a gaming company that can't take the risk of making a hardware thats Scorpio or Neo level that costs 500 dollars and they shouldn't.

They really can't take losses on a console that costs 500 or 400 dollars.

 

[Jubenhimer]

Nintendo was still in 2007 mindset thinking they carved out a new market.

They created a gimmick. People left, as they always do. Boom, failure.

Same deal with mobile gaming. It's a flash in the pan thing.

To retain customers you have to create quality products. That's something they stopped during the Wii era, for the most part. Now that they created amazing Wii U stuff, surprise surprise, only the people who have decided to give them a chance since the NES days, like me, are still around.

No they didn't. Nintendo still put out plenty of good games on both the Wii and DS. Even the casual games are very good. Don't make the assumption that just because it's casual, it automatically means it sucks.

 

[Sakujou]

I mean, I can see the logic in

- We made a console called the Wii
- It sold like gangbusters
- We're making a new console that ALSO has the word "Wii" in it
- SURELY it'll also sell like gangbusters.

Nintendo had believed that the massive sales of the Wii had re-created a level of brand awareness they haven't had since the late 80s/early 90s. I think they honestly needed something like the WiiU to make them see otherwise.

so why is playstation/xbox selling so well?
they also have the name of their predecessor.

this was clearly some kind of propaganda and wrongdoings of journalism.

wii u is similar to wii
xbox 1 is the SUCCESSOR of the xbox one.

welp call me stupid, but microsoft never had to deal with the same of problem like nintendo.

 

[Doctor_Thomas]

This should be a good point to remember that just doing version 2.0 doesn't work in the console space.

You have to keep redefining yourself.

Only when it comes to gimmicks

Sony have, pretty much, released the same console 4 times and hit the nail 3 out of 4 times and got it right eventually on the other.

 

[LegendofLex]

so why is playstation/xbox selling so well?
they also have the name of their predecessor.

They also have like 100s more games than Wii U, including most of the games people want to play.

 

[Theanine3D]

I think it's silly to think the Wii U would have been a success if it had a different name. The Wii U's problems extend far beyond its name.

It might have helped them at least reach GameCube numbers though, which is still far better than what they ended up with.

 

[Jubenhimer]

I know the common narrative is that the Wii brand was dead when Wii U launched, but going by my own experiences, I don't think this was the case. As late as 2012, the retirement home I was working at still had Wii bowling nights every week. I also still saw Wii games being played at parties all the time (primarily Brawl, NSMB Wii, MK Wii, and Just Dance). And whenever I stepped foot in a GameStop, parents were still coming in and buying Wii games, even after the Wii U launched (I remember overhearing a parent coming in asking for Mario Kart for the Wii, even after MK8 had come out)

I honestly think casuals were actually too satisfied with the Wii, so much so that they saw no need to pay $300+ for a new box (if they actually managed to figure out that it was, in fact, a new box, and not an addon, lol). The Wii already did what they wanted, and better graphics are not a selling point to them. On top of that, it had a confusing new controller that effectively negated what was so special about the Wii to them (motion controls).

This is why I don't buy the whole "casuals got bored of their Wii's and moved on to tablets" claim because there's almost no evidence to support that. As you said, Wii's are still being played. Nintendo just failed to create an adequate follow up.

 

[SlipperyMoose]

What is the LTD sales of the Wii U now?

 

[Respect]

 

[Father_Brain]

I don't think shrinking is the correct word. I think what we're mostly seeing with Wii U is an audience who will buy Nintendo hardware no matter what, and no matter how bare their release schedules, because the software on offer is just worth it. The poor sales are symptomatic of a failure to entice a significant number of buyers outside that collective. And in all likeliness, it's doable again in a worst case scenario. I think NX will fare much better, though.

Well, that's the big question (one of them, anyway): whether their problem this gen is more that demand for Nintendo IP is constraining demand for Nintendo hardware, or whether demand for Nintendo hardware is constraining demand for Nintendo software.

I'm reasonably confident that it's more the former, and that all the much-discussed failings specific to Wii U and 3DS are secondary to the limited appeal of their software libraries.

 

[MatrixMan.EXE]

Lol so many Sony is dead...sometimes GAF really doesn't know wtf they are talking about. I wasn't browsing then, but I definitely never thought Sony was in trouble to the degree of exiting the console market, I was very much looking forward to their next console and thought it had the best exclusives already by then. Dunno what that consensus on GAF was about. Maybe it was because Sony the company was losing a lot of money every year and PS3 wasn't the top dog. Still it was waay overblown, just like this NX prediction. It's Nintendo, they could do anything lol.

I'm going conservative and saying they will replicate their sales of 3DS and WiiU somehow with NX.

A lot of that thread was just wishful thinking rather than predictions based on actual facts.

 

[Omnistalgic]

A lot of that thread was just wishful thinking rather than predictions based on actual facts.

That makes sense...

 

[Bitch Pudding]

A lot of that thread was just wishful thinking rather than predictions based on actual facts.

Besides, the second they announced the concept - and especially the name - of their new console most people here on GAF called it DOA, if I remember correctly.

 

[Hilarion]

To retain customers you have to create quality products. That's something they stopped during the Wii era, for the most part.

I'd make the case that Brain Age and Wii Sports are both top 10 all-time Nintendo software pieces. Brain Age especially was very warmly received both publicly and critically and is a clean, sleek, streamlined experience that delivers exactly what it needs to.

I certainly got more out of Brain Age than I got out of any number of "classic" Nintendo games from previous eras and it's very disappointing to me that that series seems to be dead.

 

[Poetic.Injustice]

What is the LTD sales of the Wii U now?

About 13 million.

 

[AzaK]

I'm I'm being generous, maybe they thought of the idea of Wii U in 2006/2007 ish. Then touch tablet controls would have been almost forward thinking and they may have predicted a huge move in that direction. However, the execution would then be the problem. It was a proprietary device, expensive, more insular and old, less usable technology compared to what came in 2007.

Then you fast forward a couple of years and see that the iPhone is a hit and casual gaming is now on those platforms, but you've already invested 2-3 years in this new platform. Can you change and do something different in 2-3 years?

 

[perfectchaos007]

Can't blame any marketing team outside of their house marketing in Japan. The marketing teams in America and PAL territories only take orders from Japan. And the Japan team is out of touch with the Western world. Got lucky with Wii though....won't happen again

 

[Skittzo0413]

I'm I'm being generous, maybe they thought of the idea of Wii U in 2006/2007 ish. Then touch tablet controls would have been almost forward thinking and they may have predicted a huge move in that direction. However, the execution would then be the problem. It was a proprietary device, expensive, more insular and old, less usable technology compared to what came in 2007.

Then you fast forward a couple of years and see that the iPhone is a hit and casual gaming is now on those platforms, but you've already invested 2-3 years in this new platform. Can you change and do something different in 2-3 years?

I'm pretty sure we have direct quotes from Nintendo people that this was exactly the case. People on Gaf tend to claim that the Wii U was a lazy attempt to cash in on the popularity of tablets but ignore the fact that it was relatively far along in planning and development before the iPad ever came out.

Really the execution, marketing, and honestly the core concept itself led to its failure. Nintendo threw away years of sticking to their "lateral thinking with withered technology" mantra (which had just netted them their biggest ever successes) by including a very expensive, new and proprietary streaming technology to attempt to regain the core gamer market while assuming the expanded market would buy anything they put out. Even with the same core concept, the marketing and even the damn name of the thing could have been much better and given it a great deal more success (very unlikely near 100M though).

Honestly based on their recent quotes and secrecy (which the Wii U had little of) I'm convinced they've learned a great deal from these mistakes and will begin righting the ship pretty well with the NX.

 

[R00bot]

Sad excuse for a company.

What the fuck? They're a multi billion dollar company that has been around for over 100 years and making a profit for all but one or two of those years, yet one guy within the company makes a wrong estimate of sales and suddenly they're a sad excuse for a company?

Get outta here.

 

[legend166]

I still don't understand why some people believe Nintendo should release a top of the line hardware in terms of specs. Unlike Sony or Microsoft who have the ability to fall back to other parts of their conpany, Nintendo can't. They're solely a gaming company that can't take the risk of making a hardware thats Scorpio or Neo level that costs 500 dollars and they shouldn't.

They really can't take losses on a console that costs 500 or 400 dollars.

Sure, but their problem with the Wii U was they released it for $350 and it was still underpowered (relative to the competition) because it had a controller with a gimmick that no one really wanted.

You've got to go one way or the other.

 

[boiled goose]

Wii was novel.

WiiU wasn't. All you have to do is look at the name and the console.

 

[Hilarion]

What the fuck? They're a multi billion dollar company that has been around for over 100 years and making a profit for all but one or two of those years, yet one guy within the company makes a wrong estimate of sales and suddenly they're a sad excuse for a company?

Always been curious about that point. How on Earth was Nintendo staying in the black in, say, 1937-1945? Making Hanafuda cards for soldiers?

It's just bizarre to me that this playing card company stayed afloat and profitable through the largest war in human history, and one the Japanese really got hammered in during the last few years of the war.

 

[R00bot]

Always been curious about that point. How on Earth was Nintendo staying in the black in, say, 1937-1945? Making Hanafuda cards for soldiers?

It's just bizarre to me that this playing card company stayed afloat and profitable through the largest war in human history, and one the Japanese really got hammered in during the last few years of the war.

I guess if you stay smart and use your funds wisely it can be almost impossible for a company to go bankrupt, eg. you could have 2 workers through that period and have almost zero cost to running the business, but in the end it's still the same company.

Most companies go bankrupt by attempting to stay relevant and keeping their employee count high, hoping that they'll have a breakthrough that will make it worth it. I guess they'd rather die than become irrelevant, although downsizing can definitely be the correct thing to do in harsh climates (such as a war or two lol).

Just to stress I have no idea if Nintendo actually did this lol just a guess.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

Honestly Wii U should've released in 2010. It could've been a PS4 Neo like upgrade to the Wii. I think it would've been a lot more succesful had it been released a few years earlier and served as a more powerful, HD Wii with a tablet.

 

[jroc74]

Honestly Wii U should've released in 2010. It could've been a PS4 Neo like upgrade to the Wii. I think it would've been a lot more succesful had it been released a few years earlier and served as a more powerful, HD Wii with a tablet.

I agree.

I also feel it shoulda released in 2006.

IMO the GC shoulda been the Wii and the Wii shoulda been the Wii U. If that would have happened Nintendo would have the home console market on lock. At the least they would be in a better position today as far as mindshare.

 

[iidesuyo]

Honestly Wii U should've released in 2010. It could've been a PS4 Neo like upgrade to the Wii. I think it would've been a lot more succesful had it been released a few years earlier and served as a more powerful, HD Wii with a tablet.

Yes, I agree. Wii overstayed its welcome by two years, especially since SDTVs were outdated and HDTVs were finally standard.

100m units sold were still out of reach.

 

[Jubenhimer]

Going into the NX, what Nintendo needs to do is return to what made the Wii a success, improve in areas were it fell short, and modernize it's philosophy for 2017. Most importantly, they need to get families playing again. Old people, young women, kids, parents, etc. need to be included. To do this, they'll need to break down the barriers that seperate mobile gaming from dedicated gaming. Create and highlight games that scale between being out and about, and at home nicely. Build on My Nintendo and mobile games to encourage people to use your ecosystem. And do this all, with a control interface that's so simple, ANYONE can pickup and play.

Much to the dismay of "gamerz", Nintendo needs another Wii like success. They need to reach out to everyone, and the NX must be the glue that holds all their ventures together.

 

[trixx]

Lmao has to be a joke. Only sold 1/10th gawd damn

 

[Slurpy2k20]

I mean, I can see the logic in

- We made a console called the Wii
- It sold like gangbusters
- We're making a new console that ALSO has the word "Wii" in it
- SURELY it'll also sell like gangbusters.

Nintendo had believed that the massive sales of the Wii had re-created a level of brand awareness they haven't had since the late 80s/early 90s. I think they honestly needed something like the WiiU to make them see otherwise.

The Wii U was a fucking marketing disaster, in every single sense. I truly think it has some of the best games of this generation, but everything else was wrong.

 

[Father_Brain]

Going into the NX, what Nintendo needs to do is return to what made the Wii a success, improve in areas were it fell short, and modernize it's philosophy for 2017. Most importantly, they need to get families playing again. Old people, young women, kids, parents, etc. need to be included. To do this, they'll need to break down the barriers that seperate mobile gaming from dedicated gaming. Create and highlight games that scale between being out and about, and at home nicely. Build on My Nintendo and mobile games to encourage people to use your ecosystem. And do this all, with a control interface that's so simple, ANYONE can pickup and play.

Much to the dismay of "gamerz", Nintendo needs another Wii like success. They need to reach out to everyone, and the NX must be the glue that holds all their ventures together.

Yup, they just need to catch lightning in a bottle again. Easy.

I agree that casuals/kids/families make more sense to target than the alternative, but if I'm wrong and NX is a success, I really think it'll be purely on the back of first-party software, not on any magically compelling input gimmick. You can't get any simpler or more pick-up-and-play than mobile.

 

[Skittzo0413]

Yup, they just need to catch lightning in a bottle again. Easy.

I agree that casuals/kids/families make more sense to target than the alternative, but if I'm wrong and NX is a success, I really think it'll be purely on the back of first-party software, not on any magically compelling input gimmick. You can't get any simpler or more pick-up-and-play than mobile.

I don't know how true this is. Consider eye tracking- if the NX has a sophisticated eye tracking feature which accurately detects your gaze position that could greatly simplify controlling games which use a cursor or reticle, for instance. There are also a lot of problems with mobile games that require text communication, quick precise movement, camera movement... Mobile is only really a simple way to play a few genres of games, and Nintendo can surely find ways to simplify controls of other types of games and hopefully expand those audiences again.

Your point about being the easiest to pick up and play is definitely true though, and Nintendo has mentioned this noting that their smartphone games are attempts at being "gateway" games that entice users to buy their hardware and full games, by offering rewards and discounts and banking on increased IP exposure/brand loyalty. It's not a bad strategy but we'll see how well it works.

Incidentally Nintendo's stock shot up today likely because of the apparent success of pokemon go, which isn't even really a Nintendo game. But that shows their brand and IP awareness is still quite strong.

 

[Jubenhimer]

Yup, they just need to catch lightning in a bottle again. Easy.

I agree that casuals/kids/families make more sense to target than the alternative, but if I'm wrong and NX is a success, I really think it'll be purely on the back of first-party software, not on any magically compelling input gimmick. You can't get any simpler or more pick-up-and-play than mobile.

Which is why I suspect the NX controller will probably be a tactile smartphone screen with shoulder buttons and analog sticks. The biggest development possibility IMO, would be that developers can now make the controller whatever they want. They can tailor the interface to the software, rather than tailor the software to the interface.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

they're the only ones not going multiplatform with their first party titles or desperately consolidating divisions and property to keep the lights on

for being antiquated they be doin jus fin

I think people overstate how "fine" they are. They're in a dangerous spot right now. The NX is a big, big, big deal.