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Kotaku UK Rumor: Xbox One, Windows 10, Halo 5, & Minecraft notably below expectations

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Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I'm not sure if the 2x is supposed to be literal or not or just an illustration, but they note both were below expectations.

Kotaku UK said:
Besides the technical problems with Windows 10, though, Lionhead’s bigger problem was that for the entirety of Fable Legends’ development cycle, the potential audience for the game was shrinking. Xbox One sales were falling far short of projections. Windows 10 installs, too, were nowhere near what Microsoft had planned. The scale just wasn’t there. And for a free-to-play game, scale is everything.

“Let’s be honest – we make our projections based on a series of assumptions,” reflects a former employee who worked closely with Microsoft. “There are supposed to be 2x as many Xboxes out there as there are right now. There are supposed to be 2x as many Windows 10 installs as there currently are. So now, when we look at how much money Legends could make in the free-to-play universe, you have to halve it. Because we can only reach half the audience that was projected.”
One source reckons that the final decision was probably made about a week before, as Microsoft started doing its fiscal planning, deciding what products and studios to fund and not. Lionhead was not the only first-party studio that was having problems. Something had to give.

“I reckon [Phil Spencer] feels bad about Lionhead, but I think for him, he has to run all of Microsoft Studios as a business,” they say. “First-party studios isn’t doing so well. Halo 5 is a big miss, versus projections. Minecraft is a big miss, versus projections. Compared to either one of those, Lionhead is practically a rounding error. But I think if your division is under-performing, you have to go to your boss with something on the altar.”
Source: http://www.kotaku.co.uk/2016/06/09/how-fable-legends-took-down-lionhead
 

Caffeine

Member
win 10 installs fell short from projection ? that doesn't sound right unless they had unrealistic projections.
 

WadeitOut

Member
Fable Legends was a turd of a game. The excuses aren't necessary. Lion head hasn't produced anything of quality in a long time so they got dropped. The install base wasn't going to save the game from a quality stand point.
 

Toki767

Member
When they say there's supposed to be 2x as many Xbox Ones out there right now, I'm guessing they're probably implying PS4 has 2x as many consoles sold?
 

alr1ght

bish gets all the credit :)
Probably people using the W10 store, which is probably like 5% (gamers) of the install base.
 

DrArchon

Member
I'm impressed that Microsoft managed to fuck up Windows 10 so hard that they were giving it away for free and it still under-performed. That's kinda embarrassing.

Also shows why Microsoft is so adamant about combining W10 and XBO development. Why develop for two underperforming markets when you can develop for one larger market?
 

Chris1

Member
Halo 5 and Minecraft were also below expectations.

Just read that part, maybe new thread worthy?

“I reckon [Phil Spencer] feels bad about Lionhead, but I think for him, he has to run all of Microsoft Studios as a business,” they say. “First-party studios isn’t doing so well. Halo 5 is a big miss, versus projections. Minecraft is a big miss, versus projections. Compared to either one of those, Lionhead is practically a rounding error. But I think if your division is under-performing, you have to go to your boss with something on the altar.”

Halo was obvious but Minecraft is a surprise... their expectations must have been ridiculously high considering it's still selling loads. But I doubt they're worried about Minecraft all they have to do is pop out a sequel and rake in the cash.
 
Weren't they boasting massive W10 installs?
I get that f2p is very difficult without a massive audience, but I'm not sure how MS could expect 2x as much and is cancelling it and shutting down one of their biggest studios really the right way to handle exaggerated expectations?
 

gofreak

GAF's Bob Woodward
If both have disappointed so much it might explain the push to consolidate them under one banner, so they can potentially help each other out. Or kill each other. I guess we'll see how it goes for them, although I guess they feel they can't do much worse.
 
win 10 installs fell short from projection ? that doesn't sound right unless they had unrealistic projections.

Well what else would you project for a free OS install. If I where them I would have projected something like 75% of PC's would upgrade. Currently I don't think 50% of PC's have upgrade because Win7 is beast and people got used to Win8 and they don't want to change.
 
damn i thought phil harrison would've been great for xbox's eu branch
Something else happened in 2012: former Sony executive Phil Harrison joined Microsoft as corporate vice president in charge of its European game development efforts. Harrison has a long history in the games industry – he is a part of the story of a great many high-profile games of the last two decades – and he had a very clear vision for where games were going. Phil passionately believed in games-as-service: in other words, long-tail online games that evolved with their player bases, and were probably free-to-play. This belief would be what determined Lionhead’s direction (and, judging by Sea of Thieves, Rare’s too)...
Phil Harrison’s vision for all of his studios in Europe was now for service-based games. That’s what he thought was the future of games. He didn’t want to make anything that was a £50 box, fire and forget. He wanted long tails of revenue, even if there was a smaller up-front burst of revenue.”

“Harrison had a vision for the future where everything was games as a service,” says another. “I think many parts of Microsoft really struggled with that approach, despite the fact that Windows 10 was going in that direction. Harrison absolutely did not want a boxed product.”

Given Harrison’s background, this approach was understandable. Between his stints at Microsoft and Sony, he had been special advisor for a company called London Venture Partners, which invested in new business models in the gaming world and counted Supercell as one of its early seed investments. He had seen, close-up, how successful games-as-service could be. Lionhead had to come up with something that would fit the model.

looks like he was too enamored with mobile's games success at the time
 

Jebusman

Banned
250-300m install base still not enough? That's like 8 times PS4 install base.

I mean, I can only assume this was a joking comment, but incase it's not, I'm sure they have stats on exactly how large of their user segment is

A. Capable of playing games
B. WILLING to play games

If you did a Venn diagram of "Windows 10 users who meet system requirements, fans of fable, fans of f2p games and people willing to use the windows 10 store", the overlap between all those would be impossibly small.
 

Zomba13

Member
Next Windows 10 update prompt:

"Windows 10 is coming. You can't stop it. Accept it. Welcome Windows 10 into your PC. Your files are right where you left them." x*

(Ok) (Yes)

*Clicking the x welcomes Windows 10 into your hard drive.
 

Caffeine

Member
windows store being below projections makes a ton of sense.

its games for windows live 2.0 under a new name.
 
It must be really tough making a big budget game like this in the games-as-a-service mold, and it just shows how fast the industry can change, both as a whole and also around yourself.

By the time a game like this has been finished, 3-4 years after its conception, so much has changed, and reality doesn't match up with expectations. Shame.
 

Welfare

Member
When they say there's supposed to be 2x as many Xbox Ones out there right now, I'm guessing they're probably implying PS4 has 2x as many consoles sold?

Or they thought they would be doing much better by now compared to reality. This must've been something from pre launch or slightly after it or else that is some Nintendo-esque Wii U bullish projections.
 

Gestault

Member
I'm betting the Win10 install expectations is referring to the Windows 10 Store specifically. I would be so aggravated working on something that long and having marketing/management strategies fall through. It's not like a dev can control that.
 

ethomaz

Banned
I guess that was a bit obvious at least for the Xbone case.

It is possible tracking below 360 right now and the gap will increase because Xbone's peak happened last year and 360 just started to grow after the 3rd year.

And the target for Halo 5 was really missed.

I'm surprised about Minecraft but thinking about how much they paid then I guess MS expected way more than what they are selling to cover investments.
 

Moosichu

Member
Just read that part, maybe new thread worthy?



Halo was obvious but Minecraft is a surprise... their expectations must have been ridiculously high considering it's still selling loads. But I doubt they're worried about Minecraft all they have to do is pop out a sequel and rake in the cash.

It tells you something about bloated expectations when the best selling game of all time is 'below expectations'.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
damn i thought phil harrison would've been great for xbox's eu branch


looks like he was too enamored with mobile's games success at the time

Honestly, given what's selling today, I don't think he was really wrong.

The main miss he made is that on consoles, you sell a $60 game, and then you flood people with endless DLC and/or microtransactions along with new content for years.
 

gatti-man

Member
I'm impressed that Microsoft managed to fuck up Windows 10 so hard that they were giving it away for free and it still under-performed. That's kinda embarrassing.

Also shows why Microsoft is so adamant about combining W10 and XBO development. Why develop for two underperforming markets when you can develop for one larger market?

People need a why. Why upgrade if my current OS does everything I need? Why relearn where everything is and the GUI? It's a pain and not worth it to a ton of the user base. That's not counting businesses using legacy software. Microsoft really needs a why for its products.
 
damn i thought phil harrison would've been great for xbox's eu branch


looks like he was too enamored with mobile's games success at the time

He's always been that person, even at Sony.

The biggest things attributed to Harrison at Sony were Singstar & Sony London's more casual output like Buzz. He's always been more a services-kind person, especially with him championing Home.
 

zma1013

Member
Next Windows 10 update prompt:

"Windows 10 is coming. You can't stop it. Accept it. Welcome Windows 10 into your PC. Your files are right where you left them... maybe... we don't know... subscribe to our Cloud data backup service you Windows 7 peasants."

I fix
 
Microsoft shouldn't have tried to screw people over with it's half-baked budget console.

That blame rest entirely upon Don Matrick. I hope he is happy having basically destroyed all the progress Microsoft made with the 360. I would have never expected myself to go Sony, and I'm still bitter at them about the Dreamcast. But Sony simply has the best videogame consoles on the market right now.
 
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