I wonder if we'll finally get a MHW target?
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
It's going to be something insane like 8 million.
Or something insane like 2m.
I don't think it would be an issue if everything else they were doing was successful. It's a harder sell when everything else is underperforming.
frankie_baby
Member
Hey they gotta put something they at least have a shot at beating
If they can't crack 2 million I think the company is legitimately fucked.
I'm not even bullish on anything Capcom but I expect around 4 million which would be in line with recent entries.
also, related to Capcom (in addition to http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=250283453&postcount=799)
Q1 2016 vs Q1 2017
and forecast for FY
Q1 2016 vs Q1 2017
and forecast for FY
frankie_baby
Member
As its shipments then that should be doable but i can see a lot of retailer caution after recent capcpom games
Gotdatmoney
Member
There are assumptions about if the game does under the 3DS games investors will be pissed. I am relatively sure if Capcom has any brains they will not project sales higher than the 3DS titles. If they have any directions they are going to frame this as an inevitable generational transition.
They aren't going to frame it as "we bout ti double the franchise fam!!!"
Still, they mostly would be avoiding the shit storm if they just released World on the Switch.
Jim_Cacher
Member
I hope Fire Emblem Warriors can do good numbers. It is a fun game and surprisingly polished.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
The problem is with all their other underperformances a conservative prediction isn't going to cut it. Otherwise they'll have to dramatically revise down their guidance for the year, which would be the sane thing to do but I'm not sure if they'd be willing to actually do it.
BrokenJohnCena
Member
a big hardware shipment coupd help it a lot
Gotdatmoney
Member
I mean, everyone here already knew that forecast was bullshit anyway
The Infinite bomb hurts for sure. But maybe those revelations Switch ports pull a USF2. . .lmao (I'm laughing but those and Doon probably will clean up during the holidays honestly)
I just think if they have any solod leadership they should be able to project World reasonably instead of pretending it's going to do something it just wont
frankie_baby
Member
I mean, everyone here already knew that forecast was bullshit anyway
The Infinite bomb hurts for sure. But maybe those revelations Switch ports pull a USF2. . .lmao (I'm laughing but those and Doon probably will clean up during the holidays honestly)
I just think if they have any solod leadership they should be able to project World reasonably instead of pretending it's going to do something it just wont
Doom is gonna eat their lunch, they'll probably do better than the ps4 version but they wont sell much and the lack of retail presence in europe will hurt them
Gotdatmoney
Member
The price advantage they have will help. It's 2 games for less than nornal retail price. I have no idea why there is no physical release in Europe though. Wtf is that about?
Well yes. 2m is insane for a different reason than 8m. But still insane.
I think the logical target would be 4m but perhaps that's why Capcom hasn't given one yet? If MHW doesn't hit whatever target they set, after 4/5 3DS entries flew past their projections, that's not good.
frankie_baby
Member
Capcpom dont have much of a European presence, all their nintendo games are effectively "published" by nintendo and for other systems by someone else, guess they just didnt think it was worth it
I'd imagine NOE's likely not into the whole needing to download RER2 aspect of the physical collection.
Gotdatmoney
Member
What are they gon do with MHW then?
Still, find it mad dumb that they are lushing out extra skus of a game and they cant be bothered for a retail release
frankie_baby
Member
Thats quite possibe, I'd reckon they'll both to well as cheap (sub 20 quid?) Eshop downloads though just nothing spectacular and certainly not enough to make a dent in capcpom's ridiculous targets
frankie_baby
Member
By the looks of it i think its Koch media that handles them
Koch Media is the distribution for quite a few major publishers in Europe, including Squeenix, Koei-Tecmo, Bethesda... hell, even Microsoft is listed on their website: https://www.kochmedia.com/en/games/distribution/
That's not really new, though, at least in Capcom's case.
That's not really new, though, at least in Capcom's case.
BrokenJohnCena
Member
BrokenJohnCena
Member
nvm
Gotdatmoney
Member
Oh okay. So this is a none issue.
So back to the board in why no European physical release.
lyrick
Member
Probably because they're a public company that has pretty much failed at everything they've set out to do this year outside of selling a bit more of a Street Fighter 2 port than expected.
Looking into their forecast for the rest of their FY, It pretty much looks like it's also going to go be a failure (including sales of Monster Hunter World). I honestly can't see any reason why an investor would want to hold onto Capcom stock while they continue to try and figure shit out. The Company is a genuine fucking mess right now. Maybe they can right their ship next fiscal year, but for now all signs point to a company that is not growing anywhere where it matters.
Have you ever read reports from investor meetings and Q&A sessions? If Capcom aim is to expand MH popularity worldwide (and in doing so it makes a big investment---Capcom marketing aims at positioning MH: World as a top global product), investors will expect higher sales with respect to previous entries, or a big growth in Western markets. Period.
Capcom is not in the position of having an underperforming MH game, after an underperforming RE game, an underperforming SF game, and a bombing MvC game, on top of a mobile division that has yet to take off. Capcom can explain that it is a long-term investment, sure. Can Capcom credibly convince investors that yes, perhaps, maybe, in the future MH will grow in Western markets to make up for the loss in Japanese sales? Can Capcom be actually able to grow MH into a global franchise in the like of RE? Given Capcom recent business decisions, and the state of the market, I don't think it's reaching saying that it's very likely they can't. Remember that Capcom expects to sell 10m games in this fiscal year. If they miss this target (and likely so, given MvC performance---it was expected to sell 2m), investors will not care about a mild increase in Western sales for the MH franchise. 1.5-1.7m units in the West with <2m in Japan with respect to 1m in the West and 3m+ in Japan will not look good.
It was Capcom stating in one of their meetings that 3DS was constraining MH sales worldwide. Selling less with a much bigger effort (Capcom will take care of marketing and distribution in North America and Europe) will not look good. You can believe the opposite, and it's perfectly fine, but business talk is a different thing
I don't think AC japan release is going to important to push for Switch AC there. As from what we have seen, Japan does not seems to have the synergy effect that the game provide WW.
We have yet to see the game, but if it looks good I'd be pretty confident on FE Switch being the best selling title on the series.
No, it's not the same. It comes out only one year later and, unlike DS and 3DS, Switch is not backwards compatible.
Short gap between releases can go either way but lack of backwards compatibility is a clear disadvantage at sales potential.
I think Japan will have the smaller loses analogically since 3DS remains active this year with the last wave of big releases. Western sales could suffer more since there isn't the hype of Pokemon Go anymore and the system has returned to its apathy status.
Gotdatmoney
Member
Have you? It's not as simple as you are positioning it despite writing lots of paragraphs all you really are saying is if they lose Jaoanese sales and dont outsell the 3DS entries it's a failure. Eh, there are more factors to consider than raw sales here.
No. Capcon has stated that they want to grow the series in the West. They haven't implied anything in terms of expanding the series total sales compared to past entries. You're implying that. And what inverstors expect is based off of how Capcom has positioned their strategy. Capcom has not given numerical expectations for a reason. Or do you think that's an accident?
I'll ask you again since frankly you're not saying anything here. Apart from release MHW on the Switch (which I mean everyone already agrees they should have done this) what else can they do? MH is limited in the West by the 3DS. The 3DS is a dying platform with 5 MH games on it. The system can't support another mainline game. The only other systems they can move the series too would require the same increase in budget regardless. What are they suppose to do?
Forget the sales target of 10m or w/e because we all know that's bullshit and they were never going to hit it regardless. The whole strategy of a game can't carry a fiscal unit goal that was planned to include many games. It's a pointless thing to keep harping about.
It was Capcom stating in one of their meetings that 3DS was constraining MH sales worldwide. Selling less with a much bigger effort (Capcom will take care of marketing and distribution in North America and Europe) will not look good. You can believe the opposite, and it's perfectly fine, but business talk is a different thing
Again. Capcom said the 3DS is constraining the series "in the West". They never said that moving to consoles will allow them to drastically increase net sales. If they did provide the quote. And further more, again, where does MHW go if not PS4/XB1/PC? Switch sure, we agree they can and should do that despite the Switch not being a known entity at the time of the decision to make this game. Ie we didn't know whether it would be a flop, a good system or a flatout beast. Look at 3DS software sales. It's dying. Now it's suppose to house MH game number 6? And the expansion?
Everything you are stating ignores the reality of the market at play. MHW was going to be a big budget game regardless. Even if the game was on the Switch you would be going from 3DS (a system that is like Gamecube with some extra shaders) to Switch is well beyond PS3/360. No matter what this next game was going to be expensive. Capcom missing projections on other games doesn't change the frame of reference for MHW. MHW isn't going to magically shoulder more sales expectation because Infinite flopped.
And if Capcom has competent leadership (I mean they don't but bare with me here) thry shouldn't have much trouble explaining that they really only had one viable path going forward with the series.
Godzilla's Left Toe
Member
Nice.
They haven't given concrete figures but they were playing up "strong positive reception" after E3, so they're ginning up their investors either way. Next report we hear from, don't be surprised if they lean even more on "strong positive reception" and "preorders" to deflect from everything else failing. They'll have to start giving figures for this too, and it will be interesting to see if they inflate expectations to cover for other nonperformances.
Capcom's biggest problem this year won't have much of anything to do with MHW, unless it too bombs unilaterally but I don't expect that. Their problem come end of FY is that *everything else* bombed this year to varying degrees of awful (MvCI, DR) to potentially passable but not good (RE7). Their only successes are old-gen ports, and USFII.
And the real elephant in the room will be the fact they fumbled on Marvel given current IP strength and unknown sums of capital spent on licensing (and whatever petty change they threw at the actual game). That is going to be a real kick in the balls, though. MvCI may well be the biggest failure on capitalizing on a hot property in some time, and the poster child for this year for catastrophic AAA performance. So its not only a failure to meet forecasts, its an utter failure in potential. Going from a forecast of 2 million to not even a million is disaster incarnate.
When your entire catalog, mobile initiative, and cross-media penetration except one game is in the metaphorical depths of Hell, that one game is sort of irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Their Q&A sessions will be... interesting.
Gotdatmoney
Member
Oh I know. They are avoiding putting figures to it for a reason. And part of that is because they know projecting it well past the 3DS numbers is dangerous especially with all their other undeeperformers.
I agree, which is why I find all this MHW must do way better now or inverstors will be pissed stuff funny. The investors are going to be pissed no matter what. The units projection was horse shit and the games bombing are a reflection of that. Investors aren't going to pin blame on a title meeting expectations for valid reasons. They will pin it on failure to project all the products that didn't.
Yup
Yup which is why there relectance to support Switch is really weird to me.
That's not true. You should read those paragraphs more carefully
In fact, my reasoning wasn't even framed in the dichotomy failure/success. It was about how Capcom could sustain the existence of the franchise in the handheld market (i.e, on Switch) according to how MH: World will perform. Some insider is sure that Capcom is developing a MH game for Switch. Given the information we know, I was wondering how that would fit the plans: which type of game could be; when it should be released; and so on. Also, I discussed possible scenarios following the MH: World release. Implying that MH: World is not a risky project is naif if you ask me. Implying I simply said MH: World will be a failure if it doesn't sell as well as 3DS entries is wrong.
True. However, do you truly believe they want to grow the series in the West for the sake of it, and not to increase worldwide sales? I mean: do you really believe they simply want to re-distribute the same or lower sales volume from one territory to the other? If you believe so, you must not have much confidence in Capcom ability to profitably run a company (well, it shows). It's not reaching to think that their aim is to sell more of a franchise, not less! Indeed, in one of my previous posts (and I was clear in that), I asked: if they are not able to increase substantially Western sales (to make up for a decline in Japan), how should this work? It's a long-term plan, you say: they increase awareness of the IP in Western markets (to the detriment of the domestic market) in order to start a growth of the franchise in those territories. Well: when? How? Are they going to release yearly entries hoping the Western market will buy G expansions as Japanese gamers were doing? Are they going to release MH: World 2 in 2020, hoping the franchise will boom thanks to WOM from the first episode? How would an hypothetical Switch game enter the equation, if it will ever exist? I don't think these are trivial question, that's why I introduced them. Very unfair on your part to write that I'm not saying anything here.
Look, I explained my position plenty of times, even a few posts ago. If you don't want to read again, I'll briefly recap here. MH: World platform choice was reasonable when it was made, something like 4 years ago; it was pretty smart, in fact! But I'm pretty sure Capcom didn't expect Generations to sell so well (in Western markets too), being a "celebration" title and not a main entry; and didn't expect PS4 to sell so bad in Japan. Things changed. Events unfolded. And MH should have moved from 3DS sooner or later. What I criticize in Capcom strategy is the statement they made in their campaign to promot Word. Capcom made it crystal clear that MH: World is the next real MH, and that the handheld market/Switch is an afterthought---first worldwide release, huge marketing campaign, something they never bothered before, to the point that MH was distributed/promoted by Nintendo on 3DS (and we didn't even get the spectacular Portable 3rd!). The point is, the MH audience has been used to handheld MH. This audience is there, exists---some of them will move to PS4, some of them probably not, especially in Japan. Capcom is saying to MH fans: "You helped us to establish brand awareness over time and to grow/sustain franchise sales, but now move on, on different platforms/with a different format". In Japan, this is especially risky, given PS4 sales. In the West, Capcom might succeed if it is able to attract many new customers. Will they be able to do so? I'm a bit perplexed, for the reasons I've already mentioned.
Companies are not making statements that are clearly bullshit for the sake it. At some point, the management believed those projections---they were confident in those sales targets. You say they are bullshit; investors will look at them and will ask explanations why they were not achieved. That's the problem with Capcom (or any other company, by the way---we saw how Nintendo strategy changed over time following bad financial results, from "no mobile games" to Pokémon GO, Super Mario Run and Fire Emblem Heroes): you can accommodate lower sales of your top franchise with the promise of working to make it grow in the medium-term... If you're in a healthy position, where the riskiness of a project is mitigated by more certain assets/products. It's not the case here, but I'm glad you have a different opinion; it's nice to discuss.
Running around Monster Hunter World at circles thread after thread has become very tiring. The game comes out in January. When sales are revealed it will become obvious if Capcom's risk was worth it or not. Until then there is no point repeating the same things all the time.
BrokenJohnCena
Member
I guess it's because MHW is appealing to the "gaf audience"
When is Capcom expected to reveal MH: World sales expectations?
Phife Dawg
Member
I still remember that betrayalton anouncement thread for Tri, lol. It has been a bit quiet during the 3DS' MH reign l guess, pent up demand I would say. I just scroll by and don't mind that much.
frankie_baby
Member
After they know what it sold so they can say it met them
MHW is one of the hottest games next year and has a sense of betrayal
It will be a tool for argument for a long time no matter how it does
Laplasakos
Member
TheLegendaryN
Member
We can bundle those long posts up after launch and release them as 'Monster Hunter World - A GAF novel'. What a write-ups...
Like Chris said, they've become very tiring.
Like Chris said, they've become very tiring.
Primethius
Banned
At least he's transparent.
frankie_baby
Member
Its called a joke, lighten up
TwilightPrincess
Member
Would be kinda funny if MHW bombed and Nintendo bought Capcom afterwards. Not going to happen, but let me dream, they could save Mega Man. And Viewtiful Joe.
Gotdatmoney
Member
How likely are we pegging DQ11 3DS to cross 2m? About 270k out. Doable with the holidays?