Support NeoGAF

[AniHawk]

How do Nintendo hardware refreshes historically sit alongside new platform introductions?

gb - april 1989
gb pocket - july 1996
gb light - april 1998
gbc - october 1998

gba - march 2001
gba sp - february 2003
gba sp+ - september 2005
gb micro - september 2005

ds - november 2004
ds lite - march 2006
dsi - november 2008
dsi xl - november 2009

3ds - february 2011
3ds xl - july 2012
2ds - october 2013

 

[pieatorium]

that's where i put it, although if they can hit their forecast for this fiscal year, they may exceed my guess by a million or two.

you're expecting the ps4 to sell less than the ps3 in europe/pal by over 10 million despite their being two less competitive platforms this time?

 

[AniHawk]

you're expecting the ps4 to sell less than the ps3 in europe/pal by over 10 million despite their being two less competitive platforms this time?

i expect the world to burn.

basically, i don't look at the wii u doing poorly and the xb1 doing poorly and see the ps4 doing well and think 'the ps4 must be mopping up all those lost wii/360 owners!' i think 'well if those markets are being hit this bad, it will even affect sony in their biggest market.' it's not unlike the handheld market in general with the vita and the 3ds.

 

[Pikma]

i understand the idea of relative success. compared to the vita, the 3ds is doing great. considering the problems with the device as a concept and its appeal to customers in the smartphone era, it's doing great. historically for handhelds and especially for a nintendo handheld, it is not doing great. i don't think it's necessarily its performance is poor, but it's definitely disappointing and mediocre at best.

I didn't compare it to the Vita though, I compared it to the existing potential market, which has considerably shrinked. The fact the platform has peaked already means that there's not that many people left interested in a handheld gaming device nowadays. And again, historically, Nintendo didn't have this kind of competition before, not from a partially external market.
I mean, I see where you're coming from, the only thing I don't agree with is the "mediocre at best" adjective

 

[Welfare]

So being optimistic the wii u will sell 10-12 million at most?

15 million is the max I'd say. Probably 13 million.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

15 million is the max I'd say. Probably 13 million.

That's my range.

I don't expect much better than that.

 

[KratosEnergyDrink]

MK8 already isn't really moving hardware, it's selling to people that already own a Wii U for the most part. Bayonetta and HW are also unlikely to really do anything. That just leaves Smash Bros. It may very well move hardware, but I can't imagine a scenario where the Wii U outsold the PS4 and Xbox One outside of them having an unbelievable collapse in sales. The holiday lineups for both of those consoles are significantly stronger than what the Wii U has to offer.

What? The holiday lineups for XB1 and especially PS4 are very ... mediocre.

No one will deny that MK8 will sell very well this holiday? Smash Bros will moving hardware. Bayonetta 1+2 and Hyrule Warriors will not move move tons of hardware but they will do their thing to support the big sales generated by MK8 and Smash Bros.

And perhaps even the exclusive Sonic Boom and the Wii U Watch Dogs will sell a small amount of Wii U ... like a dozen ;-)

It is really hard to predict Bayonetta 2 sales and how this will affect Wii U hardware sales. Bayonetta 1 had low sales on PS3 and Xbox360. But after its price went very low it seems many gamer tried it and loved it and now want to play Bayo 2.

It was a ingenious move by Nintendo to port Bayo 1 as well. With all the fuzz created by the news that Bayo 2 will be a Wii U exclusive the game got great attention and new Bayo-Gamer could now get the whole package on Wii U (and it seems the best Bayo 1 version, without stuttering or tearing). If you look around the gaming boards there seems to be a nice amount of gamers that plan to get a Wii U for even this game. How this will extrapolate in real sales? I think at the moment, no one can really tell.

 

[Miles X]

Last years Wii U holiday sales not "awful" and the Wii U had only one big game for holidays (Mario 3D World).

This holiday Wii U has MK8 and Smash Bros. On top of that Hyrule Warriors and Bayonetta 1+2. Wii U and has the outlook of games like Xenoblade X, Splatoon, Fatal Frame 5 and Zelda for next year. Wii U will sell very well this holiday.

Yes they were. 2 - 3m shipped for holiday season is awful.

I'm not even continuing this if you think niche titles like Bayonetta and Hyrule Warriors are going to make a difference.

 

[Nikodemos]

Is it just me or does the attach rate for the 3DS family seem rather low? The DS had, after the same number of years a 5.6 rate, compared to 3DS's 3.89.

 

[efyu_lemonardo]

fucking hell, this is depressing.

 

[Log4Girlz]

Even though Nintendo intends to have a unified artchitecture/OS, I really wouldn't expect them to suddenly be releasing titles across both formats. That won't happen, I can almost promise it.

If they don't they are done for

 

[Evenflow]

MK8 already isn't really moving hardware, it's selling to people that already own a Wii U for the most part. Bayonetta and HW are also unlikely to really do anything. That just leaves Smash Bros. It may very well move hardware, but I can't imagine a scenario where the Wii U outsold the PS4 and Xbox One outside of them having an unbelievable collapse in sales. The holiday lineups for both of those consoles are significantly stronger than what the Wii U has to offer.

Ok I've seen this posted like ten times now, and I have to ask what in the world are you guys reading from this report to come up with this? Year over year Wii U more than tripled in sells and kart was only available the last month of the quarter... I would call that selling systems, even if the numbers are still low. If next quarters results are even YOY then this might be a valid opinion.... but I expect them to be close to double. Either way might be to early to say, but between NPD and this, I think MK is selling systems.

 

[Pie and Beans]

What? The holiday lineups for XB1 and especially PS4 are very ... mediocre.

To your tastes perhaps. Meanwhile, Destiny, Call of Duty, Evolve, and Assassins Creed: Unity are what retailers will be pushing and people will be buying. Hell, WiiU still wont have Minecraft by that point either.

Is it just me or does the attach rate for the 3DS family seem rather low? The DS had, after the same number of years a 5.6 rate, compared to 3DS's 3.89.

Pokemon/Mario/Animal Crossing machine. People are buying in on bundles for their kids, and then thats it. This is the root of Nintendo's "buy this, get this free!" promotions in the hope it sparks those consumers to get a hunger for more.

 

[sphinx]

europe is squiggly lines, that's true, but i think microsoft has the ability to and will push for more of a presence over there - and really any 'tier one' region.

You really have to come here, mainland Europe, and see for yourself, in stores, how things are developing.

It's not a matter of pushing for more through advertising. MS advertised titanfall to hell and back here in Germany and The amount of shits that were not given by the germans would blow your mind.

It's truly competing against wiiu for the #1 spot as the least popular console ever in recent history

 

[Zeyphersan]

Ok I've seen this posted like ten times now, and I have to ask what in the world are you guys reading from this report to come up with this? Year over year Wii U more than tripled in sells and kart was only available the last month of the quarter... I would call that selling systems, even if the numbers are still low. If next quarters results are even YOY then this might be a valid opinion.... but I expect them to be close to double. Either way might be to early to say, but between NPD and this, I think MK is selling systems.

Because the game shipped 2.82 million units, but only 510,000 consoles were shipped? If that's not "preaching to the choir" I don't know what is. That's a HUGE discrepancy. Yeah, it obviously sold systems, but not enough to be called "a system seller"

 

[Phediuk]

I thought they said their losses last year were only because of a one-time spending spree.

Guess that was bullshit.

 

[Phediuk]

Is it just me or does the attach rate for the 3DS family seem rather low? The DS had, after the same number of years a 5.6 rate, compared to 3DS's 3.89.

Yes, 3DS software sales have been piss-poor from the beginning.

 

[Hellraider]

What? The holiday lineups for XB1 and especially PS4 are very ... mediocre.

Just because they are not exclusives doesn't mean they are mediocre. Huge AAA multiplatform games sell consoles.

If you think exclusives like Hyrule Warriors and Xenoblade can sell more consoles than multiplatforms like Destiny and Assassin's Creed you must be a fool.

 

[SolidSnakex]

What? The holiday lineups for XB1 and especially PS4 are very ... mediocre.

No, actually they aren't in terms of games that are going to sell and could move hardware. There's Destiny, Evolve. GTAV, AC: Unity, CoD: AW, sports titles etc. That doesn't even include games that will help fill out their lineups as well as potentially help move hardware. Look at what Watch_Dogs did during a typically dead period of the year. It sold 4m units in a week, and shipped 8m in a little over a month.

 

[boiled goose]

If an account system was clearly the answer then the Vita would be flying off shelves right? I do think that a variable price scheme, etc. would help the 3DS make its value proposition better, but it's not going to suddenly change the tide for the console. Nintendo has started experimenting with the price scheme in the US and I see even retail 3DS games have dropped to about $30-35 on launch. Mobile developers are also starting to struggle and their ridiculously low price scheme is killing them as well.

I completely agree the account system is not a silver bullet. Of course not. Rather,the lack of such a system is symptomatic of Nintendos underlying issues. Region locking for example is another symptom of the same problem. The underlying problem being nintendo inability to make offer content in a way that consumers and deveopers invest in.

The vita has all sorts of issues and it actually shares some with 3ds... overpriced games and hardware for one. Additionally, thr vita doesn't have a proper account system like a described. Crossbuy is nice, but it is a patched up solution to an intrinsically disjointed strategy. When i buy a song on iTunes or a game on steam, i dont crossbuy it for my laptop and my desketop or my iphone and my ipad. You buy it for the account.

 

[Canis lupus]

10 million is a safe bet, 12 million if miracles exist

3DS will cap at 60 mil

I don't expect 3DS to reach 60M.

Nintendo will fall short of its 12M projection (again). I expect LTD at the end of FY14 to be at 52M, so 9M for the year. This'll be its last year of big sales, next year it will fall off a cliff like DS, and when that actually does happen, 3DS will not have enough legs to carry it over 60M. It could be 4M next year, 1M the year after it, and then discontinued. Why do I make this prediction? Because it seems like Nintendo is shifting focus form 3DS to Wii U. 3DS has barely any games for 2015. They'll probably announce a new handheld next E3.

 

[Game Guru]

Hmm... I find it interesting that Nintendo Family Sales for this time period are 1.4 million (Including 3DS, Wii U, and Wii) while Xbox Family Sales are 1.1 million (Including 360 and XB1) for the same time period. This is... bad. This is very bad. We still need to wait for Sony's numbers which should be good, but it is bad that sales for both Nintendo and Microsoft systems are so low.

 

[AniHawk]

You really have to come here, mainland Europe, and see for yourself, in stores, how things are developing.

It's not a matter of pushing for more through advertising. MS advertised titanfall to hell and back here in Germany and The amount of shits that were not given by the germans would blow your mind.

It's truly competing against wiiu for the #1 spot as the least popular console ever in recent history

well, more than marketing, i think they're better positioned just in that their system is newer and has a library that's much more appealing to the console gamer. it's probably too early to make any definite declarations of how well it will do, but man if 30m in sales dried up from gen to gen on not just one but two platforms in europe, then we're in real trouble folks.

 

[Zeyphersan]

I completely agree the account system is not a silver bullet. Of course not. Rather,the lack of such a system is symptomatic of Nintendos underlying issues. Region locking for example is another symptom of the same problem. The underlying problem being nintendo inability to make offer content in a way that consumers and deveopers invest in.

The vita has all sorts of issues and it actually shares some with 3ds... overpriced games and hardware for one. Additionally, thr vita doesn't have a proper account system like a described. Crossbuy is nice, but it is a patched up solution to an intrinsically disjointed strategy. When i buy a song on iTunes or a game on steam, i dont crossbuy it for my laptop and my desketop or my iphone and my ipad. You buy it for the account.

"Cross-buy" had to be Sony's solution because the PS3, PS4 and Vita all run different processors and have to be created differently. Luckily Sony is getting out of this problem by not having a Vita successor

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

What is going on with Nintendo? Another quarter with losses depsite Mk8 coming out and doing really well. Just looking at the grpah tells me there is something wrong with they way nintendo are handling things right now.

3DS has completely collapsed. Think its safe to say its not going to reach PSP.

I really would of thought a profit would be made this quarter considering Mk8's success.

 

[Evenflow]

Because the game shipped 2.82 million units, but only 510,000 consoles were shipped? If that's not "preaching to the choir" I don't know what is. That's a HUGE discrepancy. Yeah, it obviously sold systems, but not enough to be called "a system seller"

But it shipped 160,000 last year, that is a HUGE discrepancy.... what would it have needed to ship for you to say it successfully sold systems?? These things take time, that's one month of Kart sales and its an evergreen seller...

 

[Canis lupus]

What is going on with Nintendo? Another quarter with losses depsite Mk8 coming out and doing really well.

3DS has completely collapsed. Think its safe to say its not going to reach PSP.

I really would of thought a profit would be made this quarter considering Mk8's success.

Losses everywhere and

DS to 3DS, 155M> ~60M
Wii to Wii U, 100M> ≤20M

Gonna look terrible on Iwata's résumé, managing to lose 180M customers.

 

[boiled goose]

"Cross-buy" had to be Sony's solution because the PS3, PS4 and Vita all run different processors and have to be created differently. Luckily Sony is getting out of this problem by not having a Vita successor

Haha yes. Im cautiously optimistic about Nintendos talk regarding a unified development environment.... at the very least all of their hardware should be able to play basic vc games without needing to completely report everything to each new hardware....

The benefits to this unified approach are soooo many. It promotes loyalty, it encourages owning more hardware, it smoothes gen transitions, it encourages impuluse software buys, it encourages hardware upgrades, it increases userbase, it allows for a more diverdified hard ware strategy, it reduces dev costs, it builds dev expertise, etc etc etc.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

Eh they will be fine like always, Really dont know what to say when these news seem to always come and then go.

 

[BeforeU]

Man I feel bad for Nintendo. We all gamers should. I hope they recover from this mess. When people say Xbox One is replica of PS3 situation, I would say that's not true. That's not true at all. Wii U is a perfect replica of PS3 situation. Look at the install base drop from PS2 to PS3, and Wii to Wii U. The good thing is, Nintendo isn't losing billions of $ R&D like Sony did during PS3 era. Though company like Nintendo can't even survive the hit Sony took.

 

[Zeyphersan]

Haha yes. Im cautiously optimistic about Nintendos talk regarding a unified development environment.... at the very least all of their hardware should be able to play basic vc games without needing to completely report everything to each new hardware....

The benefits to this unified approach are soooo many. It promotes loyalty, it encourages owning more hardware, it smoothes gen transitions, it encourages impuluse software buys, it encourages hardware upgrades, it increases userbase, it allows for a more diverdified hard ware strategy, it reduces dev costs, it builds dev expertise, etc etc etc.

Preaching to the choir on this one man. If I can buy a VC title and have it set for all my Nintendo hardware from here until the future, with my saves being updated on each one, I will become a virtual console FIEND

I mean more than I already am

Hell, if that means that all future games can be forever played on any new console (that meets the minimum specs) they'd get me to go all-digital. THAT'S how much a unified platform would mean to me

 

[Coolwhip]

Changed times and poor decisions by Nintendo got them in the red. I wonder what they will try next. The console market is probably only going to get worse.

 

[boiled goose]

Preaching to the choir on this one man. If I can buy a VC title and have it set for all my Nintendo hardware from here until the future, with my saves being updated on each one, I will become a virtual console FIEND

I mean more than I already am

Hell, if that means that all future games can be forever played on any new console (that meets the minimum specs) they'd get me to go all-digital. THAT'S how much a unified platform would mean to me

Exactly... i would treasure my ever growing collection of Nintendo classics... instead i dont own a wiiu or 3ds...

Nintendo could release different handheld form factors, tablets, a cheap vc only box, etc. I really believe this is necessary for Nintendo to compete in today's environment.

 

[Kysen]

Hmm... I find it interesting that Nintendo Family Sales for this time period are 1.4 million (Including 3DS, Wii U, and Wii) while Xbox Family Sales are 1.1 million (Including 360 and XB1) for the same time period. This is... bad. This is very bad. We still need to wait for Sony's numbers which should be good, but it is bad that sales for both Nintendo and Microsoft systems are so low.

PS3 and vita have collapsed, don't expect shining results from Sony either.

 

[Kazuma Kiryu]

HW numbers are pretty much as expected, consumer apathy towards the WiiU continues and 3DS keeps on falling, despite what some fans might say.
Surprised at the loss though.

What? The holiday lineups for XB1 and especially PS4 are very ... mediocre.

Well, now we know not to take your posts seriously.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Losses everywhere and

DS to 3DS, 155M> ~60M
Wii to Wii U, 100M> ≤20M

Gonna look terrible on Iwata's résumé, managing to lose 180M customers.

Right. Thats the worrying thing here. Their handheld business has contracted severely and is continuing to decline. A new handheld is needed. Their home consoles are in a dire situation as well and WiiU sales will most likely peak this year or maybe next year. They then have to manage the launch of QoL, Amiibo and the next handheld successor. Nintendo really needs at least one of those investments to pay off in the short time.

 

[confuziz]

Nintendo should team up with Sony and release all their better titles on the next console (PS5) for a reduced fee. Nintendo happy with more sales and don't have to worry about their underpowered hardware. Sony happy because even more people buy their consoles and because they can crush microsoft.

Everyone happy. I should work for them.

 

[Log4Girlz]

The benefits to this unified approach are soooo many. It promotes loyalty, it encourages owning more hardware, it smoothes gen transitions, it encourages impuluse software buys, it encourages hardware upgrades, it increases userbase, it allows for a more diverdified hard ware strategy, it reduces dev costs, it builds dev expertise, etc etc etc.

Nothing but positives by going this approach in today's day and age. The whole "but handhelds and consoles need to have separate games" is ridiculous.

 

[Game Guru]

well, more than marketing, i think they're better positioned just in that their system is newer and has a library that's much more appealing to the console gamer. it's probably too early to make any definite declarations of how well it will do, but man if 30m in sales dried up from gen to gen on not just one but two platforms in europe, then we're in real trouble folks.

While XB1 has a library that is much more appealing to the console gamer than the Wii U, PS4, a much more successful and popular console, has much of the same library. The XB1 has to rely just as much on its first-party and franchises like Halo, Gears, and Forza as the Wii U and 3DS have to rely on its first-party and franchises like Mario, Pokemon, and Smash. I don't think the fact that XB1 shares most of its library with the PS4 is going to help the XB1 sell well.

 

[Canis lupus]

Nintendo should team up with Sony and release all their better titles on the next console (PS5) for a reduced fee.

 

[Zeyphersan]

Nothing but positives by going this approach in today's day and age. The whole "but handhelds and consoles need to have separate games" is ridiculous.

Handhelds and console stopped having separate games when the Super Game Boy came out. Now, there are certain games I prefer to play on one or the other, but that's purely preference. I can't tell other people what to do.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Nintendo should team up with Sony and release all their better titles on the next console (PS5) for a reduced fee. Nintendo happy with more sales and don't have to worry about their underpowered hardware. Sony happy because even more people buy their consoles and because they can crush microsoft.

Everyone happy. I should work for them.

Lets play along this silly scenario

Sony would get an extra 10-20 million people buying the PS4 for what would a costly deal.

Nintendo would lose massive revenue from there not being a hardware business. I don't think software sales will not make up for it and in turn less software would be made.

 

[yon61]

Nintendo should team up with Sony and release all their better titles on the next console (PS5) for a reduced fee. Nintendo happy with more sales and don't have to worry about their underpowered hardware. Sony happy because even more people buy their consoles and because they can crush microsoft.

Everyone happy. I should work for them.

I want this to happen.

 

[KingSnake]

Do those games share the same engine? News to me.

It's a speculation, but it would be quite strange if they developed the Wii U games from scratch and not starting from existing engine and assets.

Releasing different configurations of the same console in a single generation would result in those configurations competing with one another, unless there is significant price difference like with PC components. Developers will need to optimize for each different configuration to ensure their games run smoothly all around. The time spent will obviously scale with the number of configurations, but a more important issue is the difference in power. If the power difference is large enough developers will either need to make concessions with their game or make it exclusive to certain configurations. The latter would kill the point of a scalable console. If the power difference is small then there's less of a need for different configurations and pricing points.

I think there are two lessons that Nintendo learned this generation:

1. They need to sell cheap hardware. Price killed 3ds' launch and didn't give Wii U any chance.
2. Under current development requirements they are not able to support properly 2 gaming devices. That's the reality.

So if this common framework (which should be based on Wii U) would provide the proper tools for Nintendo to make more scalable games (which doesn't exclude games that would be dedicated just for the handheld or just for the console) then Nintendo could offer more hardware options (not too many, of course) and they could target both the usual customers that buy it for cheap to play Nintendo games but also the ones that buy cool gadgets. So yes, the idea is to have a gap in price (for both hardware and games). If the whole idea is just to share some assets (which they already do) and engines, I fully expect a handheld and a console for cheap and very close together in the power (on the lower side) and I expect them to have again troubles in development because I don't see how this will solve current issues. There was SSB 4 given as an example earlier. Well, they already postponed 3ds version for that, that's how smooth it goes.

 

[kingkaiser]

I thought they said their losses last year were only because of a one-time spending spree.

Guess that was bullshit.

Write-Offs don't work like that. The losses they took last year because of spending have to be written-off partially during a timeframe of several years.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

Nintendo should team up with Sony and release all their better titles on the next console (PS5) for a reduced fee. Nintendo happy with more sales and don't have to worry about their underpowered hardware. Sony happy because even more people buy their consoles and because they can crush microsoft.

Everyone happy. I should work for them.

This wetdream some fans have is always fun to read... everytime lol

 

[Game Guru]

PS3 and vita have collapsed, don't expect shining results from Sony either.

I understand that PS4 seems to be the only console anyone gives a damn about, but... I can't see Sony selling only 1.5 million for the quarter for Vita, PS3, and PS4 combined. If that did happen, I would seriously start reconsidering the future of dedicated hardware to play games in comparison to PC and mobile platforms.

 

[Zeyphersan]

This wetdream some fans have is always fun to read... everytime lol

It's always Sony, interestingly enough

 

[lefantome]

I agree Nintendo is great at games, but it's bad at hardware and services, they should focus on what they do best, allowing people to enjoying their games without having to buy an hardware they don't like just for them.
Hopefully they won't pull a Sega and they'll keep their quality output on other platforms.

Someone will take their place in the console business, having 3 platforms is great for competition.

Regarding the handheld place their have interpreted it in the best way, until the 3ds. I guess their better opinion is something similar(and way better) to Playstation Mobile offering dedicated hardware too, so they can work both in the mobile and handheld market with the same cheap technology.

 

[MegaMelon]

Nintendo should team up with Sony and release all their better titles on the next console (PS5) for a reduced fee. Nintendo happy with more sales and don't have to worry about their underpowered hardware. Sony happy because even more people buy their consoles and because they can crush microsoft.

lol