Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
Its gotta be both or none
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Nintendo's new platform codename: "Project NX"
- Thread starter Lupin the Third
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Eteric Rice
Member
It depends on what the hook is. I'll still likely wait a year or so before buying one. Got burned to many times with launch buys.
If the hook really is cross play games in carts, and if they're able to get the Vita devs on board (as well as other Japanese devs) I'll be all over that.
If one of the hardware iterations is a $149.99 set box device that can play the new Zelda... A lot better.
As of right now, not by much unless Nintendo does a massive marketing push.
Eh, I'd say whilst it is overwhelmingly likely that handhelds are just going to decrease further it's still only been one generation and one in which both vendors fucked up royally. The 3DS was a product conceived before the smartphone boom and it shows.
Consider the fact that the 3DS launched without the eShop and with friend codes. Even after the eShop launched it was a while before we saw full game downloads, patches and DLC and now we're seeing stuff like F2P games.
Seeing what a post-smartphone handheld looks like is the most interesting thing about NX to me.
EDIT:
Well I'm not brave enough to be making predictions like that(especially when we don't even know what the system is) but I think it could do quite a bit better if it has a significantly better lineup which is possible if the handheld and console share games.
They just went from selling over a hundred million consoles on one gen to selling possibly 10 million in this gen their is no way to tell how many it will sell in the next. I mean before the ps4 and xbox one gen started it felt like everyone including myself seemed to think Microsoft was gonna destroy Sony this gen.
What about it?
Impossible to predict at this point.
I really doubt the next console from Nintendo will be more powerful than PS4/Xbox1.
Very few of the 1st party games published by Nintendo are pushing the WiiU to its limits. I don't think there's much reason to believe Nintendo wants to scale up its production budgets to current-gen levels.
Very few of the 1st party games published by Nintendo are pushing the WiiU to its limits. I don't think there's much reason to believe Nintendo wants to scale up its production budgets to current-gen levels.
With better hook and launch... never say never.
Considering all we know about Nintendo's current situation, the climate of the game industry, the qualities that successful products currently have, the ability of Nintendo to address their issues and the issues not within their power to deal with....
The only reasonable guess I can make is that it will sell the same as the Wii U, give or take a few million.
Mayhaps, but mobile gaming continues to grow stronger and continues to siphon the target market of handhelds.
Pokemaniac
Member
I think that it could potentially do quite a bit better, but it really heavily depends on their execution. I wouldn't really be confident enough to make any more specific predictions until we have way more details.
I generally agree with this sentiment. I find it somewhat odd that people are treating the 3DS's performance as completely unattainable for the NX handheld when the 3DS suffered from some pretty huge screwups, itself, many of which are pretty similar to some of the Wii U's failings. I get that the market has contracted, but the 3DS isn't quite a prime example of an appealing handheld.
More power doesn't mean they have to increase their production budget.
Eolz
Member
It's possible.
A small possibility, sure, but not impossible. Launch might be better, attract Vita and/or new crowds, use different business models making it more popular and accessible, etc
If it had been this gen and there had been no Vita, I would agree with you. But I think, especially most of Vita's support is Japanese, that the mobile market might eat up a considerable portion of what Sony is leaving behind. And it wouldn't take any fancy marketing campaign or new business model for mobile to accomplish that.
axisofweevils
Holy crap! Today's real megaton is that more than two people can have the same first name.
I'm actually wondering if Nintendo will bother to even split the sales between console / handheld. I think it will be more likely for them to state "The NX Family sold (X)".
Trevelyan9999
Banned
The market is fickle really, the Wii U has not sold well due to it being the "Wii U" not because it's a product of Nintendo. The NX will be a new beginning for Nintendo in a lot ways and adios to the "Wii" branding that will be 10 years old by the time it comes out.
Satoru Iwata:
http://time.com/3955733/satoru-iwata-nintendo-interview/
This is why I am eager to see what the NX is in regards to the innovations that will be appealing to the consumer as Iwata wanted. If the communication is simple yet easily understandable and "must have" in terms of innovations besides just graphics, I'm sure the NX will not have the same fate as the "unexplainable to the consumer in a 30 second commercial" Wii U. Nintendo took that approach with the Wii and it worked perfectly, but that was for the non-gamer.
Can they do this for the gamers now? That's what I'm excited for
I honestly don't think they can, at least not immediately. Most already see Nintendo as the kiddie company or the company that only offers first party games. That kind of stigma takes years to repair, if ever.The market is fickle really, the Wii U has not sold well due to it being the "Wii U" not because it's a product of Nintendo. The NX will be a new beginning for Nintendo in a lot ways and adios to the "Wii" branding that will be 10 years old by the time it comes out.
Satoru Iwata:
http://time.com/3955733/satoru-iwata-nintendo-interview/
This is why I am eager to see what the NX is in regards to the innovations that will be appealing to the consumer as Iwata wanted. If the communication is simple yet easily understandable and "must have" in terms of innovations besides just graphics, I'm sure the NX will not have the same fate as the "unexplainable to the consumer in a 30 second commercial" Wii U. Nintendo took that approach with the Wii and it worked perfectly, but that was for the non-gamer.
Can they do this for the gamers now? That's what I'm excited for
Father_Brain
Banned
Perhaps, but I think you overestimate both the ability of first-party Nintendo IP to move hardware in the current market and the degree to which price point is to blame for Wii U's woes.
Yup, I can't see it even reaching GC numbers. Maybe 5-6 million more than Wii U if all goes well.
I think a lot of people underestimate the extent to which Wii U's abysmal sales are due to fundamental market factors outside Nintendo's control, as opposed to things like the Game Pad, marketing, price point, etc.
Father_Brain
Banned
I really do think that this is wishful thinking, and that the most fundamental reason for Nintendo's current position is that more and more of their target audience just doesn't want to buy a piece of hardware just for first-party Nintendo games. Especially not when most of those games cost $40-60 a pop.
But it's a cyclical thing. People don't buy Nintendo systems because they're mostly first party, & third parties don't support Nintendo systems because those who get said systems only buy Nintendo games.
My moderate prediction is 40-50 million for the NX platform, feel free to split up the numbers between console and handheld.
If they go any higher I think it would be a success, if they go (a lot) lower it might really hurt nintendo as a first party player.
Assuming that the NX Platform sells 50 million in 5 years, I think it'll be a 35/15 or 30/20 split in favor of the NX Handheld.
Father_Brain
Banned
And I just don't see a plausible path for them to break out of that cycle, short of somehow catching lightning in a bottle again.
Astral Dog
Member
Wii U was such a disaster and did many, many obvious mistakes its impossible to predict any number, an Nx with better execution ,decent price and an appealing hook should do much better, in theory, that said competition is fierce.
It's more complex than that. Shovel Knight did well on Nintendo systems. I think it really comes down to how developers go at that group. If they give them all the bells and whistles as the over versions, then they have a good shot. If they're giving those owners a stripped down version of the game compared to every other version, they'll be dead in the water. Of course, it also doesn't help that Nintendo has been lacking in certain areas (graphics, online functionality, DLC, online store, low spec hardware, etc.). But with the NX perhaps they'll solve that problem and that will allow studios to add the same stuff to all versions of their game. If people don't perceive a lack of value, then they're more than likely to jump in on a Nintendo platform.
Well it depends on a number of things. Like you say you think people don't want to buy hardware just for Nintendo software but is that because of a lack of interest in what Nintendo software or is it because there's just not enough software? If it's the latter then unifying development/libraries could be a remedy to that.
I'd also say that moreso this gen you've had little reason to buy a Wii U if you have a 3DS. You want 3D Mario? 3DS. You want 3D Zelda? 3DS. You want Smash Bros? 3DS. You want third party games? 3DS.
3DS has all the software they need but handhelds as a device are losing appeal in the west.
I'm not bold enough to suggest it will really work, especially considering how well it would have to executed, but it's definitely worth a shot.
Father_Brain
Banned
I agree that it's worth a shot, at least. Given that they don't have a chance in hell of winning the AAA core market back, can't concurrently support two incompatible platforms anymore, and obviously can't compete directly with mobile (hence the DeNA deal), it's the best (or least bad, anyway) option they have for post-Wii U/3DS hardware.
But that said, I don't see it succeeding, unless Nintendo sets the bar for "success" pretty damn low.
You mentioned PS4 parity in the same sentence I quoted you on. I don't think it will aim to exceed the PS4 either, but meeting the market leader 3 years later is going to be something the market will mandate, at this point, before a purchase of this hardware is even remotely considered.
They might try to take a loss again if they have enough reason to believe that there will be a net positive for them and feel the construction costs of their hardware will fall fast enough to make it a temporary loss.
And here we have it again. When you market anything to the consumer, perceived value is always of high concern.
When you look at GameCube, Wii and Wii U's 3rd-party games, all it took was 1 or 2 games in the entire market to be the "worst version" or "B-to-C-tier" efforts and it had a knock-on effect to everyone else, the perception became that 3rd-party games were ALL like that.
Perceived value is a huge factor in success in the video game industry. If you don't have it, you suffer. So Nintendo has to give every effort to improving their perceived value, and that's going to mean giving no one any excuse to think that there have been corners cut in either the hardware or the games available on that hardware.
James Scott
Banned
I wonder if we'll see a Vita TV like SKU for NX. The Vita TV failed because the device it was based on wasnt inticing in the first place, but if it can play every NX handheld game at a very low price then maybe it can work out.
Probably a smart way of handling it. Makes it seem quite a lot better.
I still think Nintendo should just make a cheap Nintendo box for like $250 and an even cheaper $150 for the handheld. That's where the Wii/DS were priced at. Make it cheap enough for the kiddies to convince their parents to buy it for them for christmas then Nintendo can sell software and amiibos to them easier. Let's face it, kids are Nintendo's bread and butter and they don't give no fucks about hardware specs.
Well I think it depends on a lot of underlying factors that you can't always accurately examine. For instance going back to my point about the 3DS being conceived in a pre-Smartphone world you could look at the factors for why Smartphones are supplanting handheld. I'd break it down into three factors personally:
- They're ubiquitous. Everyone has a phone anyway.
- They improve every year. Even the Vita is struggling to run modern Smartphone games like Rise of Mana and that isn't even ambitious.
- There is a lot of software available and with a very low barrier of entry.
I think the first point is impossible to address unless Nintendo was to make a Smartphone, which just isn't feasible. The second point could be addressed if NX is really an OS as speculated/hinted at and the third point could be addressed if rumours of being able to run Android apps is true.
Now even if Nintendo perfectly addresses both of those points it doesn't mean they'll be met with any success but I don't think it's impossible that a handheld could be more attractive to consumers than the 3DS in the future.
Of course a lot depends on execution and that's where Nintendo tends to fall down.
Toadthemushroom
Member
By making an ever evolving and expanding platform rather than a cyclical one that's cut short after ~5 years, Nintendo are in this for the long run.
It might not be really compelling on day one, but there will probably be enough so that Nintendo fans jump on board at the very least.
Then the rest is up to time as the platform evolves on a functional level, and as it builds a decent enough library of games. Perhaps when the "next gen" rolls around for Nintendo's competitors Nintendo will be in a much better place, maybe even to roll out upgraded hardware and they will have a sizable of software.
At some point it should become "good enough" for more and more people, though it depends on how long Nintendo can hold onto this position. It's not infeasible to think that perhaps Sony and Microsoft will adopt this sort of platform for the future, though to do so requires a clean break that they might not see worth the effort.
Nintendo is lucky in a way since 3DS and Wii U are both facing dead-ends in a year or so, so it can replace them both with a new platform. Sony couldn't with PS3 and Vita, so it can't build a new platform that tightly integrates with the PS4 -- it's simply too late for that.
Microsoft has done a half-way house with Windows 10 and Xbox One, but it's not really the same thing, especially for big games. Developers can't easily target PC and Xbox One with, say, Halo Wars 2 for example, and MS doesn't necessarily want to encourage developers to bring all of their content to both systems anyway (though you could argue they'd be happier with them publishing on MS's Store than Steam).
I guess NX's larger success in the long term also depends on how their new cloud-based membership system (co-managed by DeNA) plays out for them. As we know, the aim of the service is to act as a bridge between all of Nintendo's devices, and while I'm sure it'll work well in Japan I do wonder whether the masses here will be more encouraged to try out Nintendo's dedicated offerings. At the very least it will hugely raise awareness of them, I guess.
The other interesting thing is NX puts Nintendo in a good place to react to change, compared with rolling out a single, set-in-stone platform and having to commit to it for 5 or so years. You can almost see why Pachter is worried that the same thing will happen with consoles that happened to handhelds, that Microsoft and Sony being locked into this 5-10 year console lifecycle means they might not be able to react to a changing market in good time, if systems like Apple TV start changing the market underneath their noses as the years go by.
Nintendo couldn't really react to the handheld market's disruption until 2011, for example, and even then the platform they replaced DS with arguably wasn't best suited for the long term, since their way of thinking, when developing 3DS, would have been different.
(On a related note, I think this is what Nvidia is trying to do with their "Shield" platform, though I do question whether they have the chops to manage a platform, as it hasn't really gone anywhere in the last 2-3 years)
It might not be really compelling on day one, but there will probably be enough so that Nintendo fans jump on board at the very least.
Then the rest is up to time as the platform evolves on a functional level, and as it builds a decent enough library of games. Perhaps when the "next gen" rolls around for Nintendo's competitors Nintendo will be in a much better place, maybe even to roll out upgraded hardware and they will have a sizable of software.
At some point it should become "good enough" for more and more people, though it depends on how long Nintendo can hold onto this position. It's not infeasible to think that perhaps Sony and Microsoft will adopt this sort of platform for the future, though to do so requires a clean break that they might not see worth the effort.
Nintendo is lucky in a way since 3DS and Wii U are both facing dead-ends in a year or so, so it can replace them both with a new platform. Sony couldn't with PS3 and Vita, so it can't build a new platform that tightly integrates with the PS4 -- it's simply too late for that.
Microsoft has done a half-way house with Windows 10 and Xbox One, but it's not really the same thing, especially for big games. Developers can't easily target PC and Xbox One with, say, Halo Wars 2 for example, and MS doesn't necessarily want to encourage developers to bring all of their content to both systems anyway (though you could argue they'd be happier with them publishing on MS's Store than Steam).
I guess NX's larger success in the long term also depends on how their new cloud-based membership system (co-managed by DeNA) plays out for them. As we know, the aim of the service is to act as a bridge between all of Nintendo's devices, and while I'm sure it'll work well in Japan I do wonder whether the masses here will be more encouraged to try out Nintendo's dedicated offerings. At the very least it will hugely raise awareness of them, I guess.
The other interesting thing is NX puts Nintendo in a good place to react to change, compared with rolling out a single, set-in-stone platform and having to commit to it for 5 or so years. You can almost see why Pachter is worried that the same thing will happen with consoles that happened to handhelds, that Microsoft and Sony being locked into this 5-10 year console lifecycle means they might not be able to react to a changing market in good time, if systems like Apple TV start changing the market underneath their noses as the years go by.
Nintendo couldn't really react to the handheld market's disruption until 2011, for example, and even then the platform they replaced DS with arguably wasn't best suited for the long term, since their way of thinking, when developing 3DS, would have been different.
(On a related note, I think this is what Nvidia is trying to do with their "Shield" platform, though I do question whether they have the chops to manage a platform, as it hasn't really gone anywhere in the last 2-3 years)
PdotMichael
Banned
The WiiU showed there is no second market outside of the PS4/Xbox One - even the end of the Wii did it.
It's also impressive how speculations are facts now.
There absolutely is, even with the sorry sales of Wii U it can produce genuine hits. Potential is there - just shows how poorly pitched and planned the product is - too few games, not packaged the right way. Still manages to successfully launch new IPs like Splatoon. The 3DS is also a part of this equation - it does well, and the games that sell it are of a variety that have nothing to do with what does well on the ps4xbonesteam. Very Japanese, very console-y experiences. The NX family will at the very least have more games, so already it's better off. The handheld variety will be set up for an accepting Japanese market (which you seem to ignore) and be a prime choice for Japanese non-mobile studios with no real alternatives left other than Nintendo handhelds.
Toadthemushroom
Member
Yeah, I think 3DS shows people are willing to pick up a "second system", even if it's not necessarily a handheld.
In addition to what Peru mentioned, it didn't help that 3DS essentially cannibalised the Wii U this generation. Not just in terms of the kind of IP Nintendo put on both and the style of game being similar, but in how Nintendo's publishing partners saw the systems -- it makes more rational sense to target the 3DS than it does the Wii U.
In addition to what Peru mentioned, it didn't help that 3DS essentially cannibalised the Wii U this generation. Not just in terms of the kind of IP Nintendo put on both and the style of game being similar, but in how Nintendo's publishing partners saw the systems -- it makes more rational sense to target the 3DS than it does the Wii U.
Blood Diamonds
Banned
I really hope they nail the launch for the NX because I feel like it's super important for them to deliver a great launch with this system. A new Mario game that's not New Super Mario Bros something and maybe a new ip or just anything that makes it better than the 3DS and Wii U launch periods.
Father_Brain
Banned
Million-selling titles even on a platform with "sorry sales" are pretty much exactly what I'd expect when a company is catering mainly to an existing, loyal fanbase rather than expanding it.
PdotMichael
Banned
The WiiU sales are disastrous and the 3DS doesn't perform that hot in the NDS&PSP world where smartphones are taking more and more of the dedicated handheld market.
Nintendo can't live in their own bubble. The market changes all the time, customers change and Nintendo will change.
Also the idea that shared library (also killing a large part of the own profit) will save Nintendo, although Sony's attempts wonderful showed that too similar lineups will just make the weaker device redundant, is quite crazy.
But the market stigma will remain for a good long while until the common person eventually realizes that Nintendo is adjusting. At the very least, that would take 5 years to happen.
As for the shared library, clearly Nintendo is incapable of supporting two libraries of games on their own, so any lost potential profits would be minimal at best. Beats the alternative, with two of the same games coming out for both console & handheld while Nintendo struggles to get enough games out to support both. By having a shared library, while you won't have 2 Smash games & 2 Mario Karts, said Smash & Mario Kart games won't eat into each other's sales (like Smash 3DS did for Smash U). On top of that, there would be more games coming out with more variety, which would tie into Nintendo solving their "the audience isn't there" problem for the long-term.
When you say second market do you mean outside of the demographic the other two service? Or just having a second console?
I would add Zelda to the list as well.
Couldn't agree more on the second part. A quick look at Nintendo's noteworthy western subsidiaries and partners shows that there's at most 350 employees working across Retro Studios (200), Monster Games (50), and Next Level Games (70). That's roughly 7 percent of their total workforce worldwide. Mario and Pokemon are huge brands without a doubt, but Nintendo are incredibly naive if they think their future platforms will be able to compete in a market that has become very western-centric without a strong western development pipeline, even if NX somehow manages to scoop up all of Sony's current Japanese support as exclusives or multiplats.
What's hurting Nintendo right now aren't market forces outside their control or some intrinsic inability to regain a substantial part of the core market no matter what they do - it's their own unwillingness to recognize and adapt to industry trends.
Nothing will perform to the standards of the previous gen. The 3DS itself is a device caught between two eras and is a bad metric in and of itself.
Sony's shared library is irrelevant when their own products do not have even a fraction of the pull of Nintendo's own, and, all the same, developing two of the same product is an enormous sink on resources and manpower. The 3DS itself sells to a vastly expanded audience to the WiiU in spite of its many shortcomings and dated ass hardware and capabilities. You're too quick and eager to discount the fact that, even for what it is, it still sold decently. Even with the inevitable atrophy to the market, a more modern-aligned product to market will still have reason to be successful even if not wildly so. Moreover, this is a long term play and so the effects and reach of the NX will be years in the making.
Retro is expanding, at the very least. It'd do them wonders to make Retro the center piece of the western arm and expand it while also supplementing it with more than just two studios.
Mithos
Member
If Nintendo gets a lightning in a bottle effect with NX, then the thirdparties will be standing there with their pants down and be to late to the party again, since either they already are porting their multiplatform games or they will be 1-2 years late.
That would take years to go into effect. Obviously this is the best course of action for the long-term, but it won't help with Nintendo's short-term.
PdotMichael
Banned
The problem right now is that there are still people who think that Nintendo alone + the bunch of Japanese developers could carry systems alone (though the companies with a focus on the Western market would prefer the Playstation/Xbox systems like it happened with the Wii.)
The facts are that the WiiU sales are nonexistent at this point and the dedicated handheld market is shrinking at a dramatic pace. And the winning formula is to do more of the same again?
The facts are that the WiiU sales are nonexistent at this point and the dedicated handheld market is shrinking at a dramatic pace. And the winning formula is to do more of the same again?
This a fallacy, no one is saying its the "winning formula". The statement and general mindset is that a better-for-the-era handheld (and console, co-ecosystem that incorporates a lot of mobile capabilities/advantages) can be *healthy*.
In fact there's very little *more of the same* in this discussion as the NX will most definitely not be very similar in capabilities to the 3DS or WiiU.
None of us are saying that Nintendo should never reach out to third parties. We're saying that Nintendo should take precautions to where they'll be capable of supporting the NX Platform on their own. Basically, Nintendo should prepare for the worst-case scenario. This way, any third party support they get will be icing on the cake. And how would a shared library be "more of the same"? If anything, it would solve one of Nintendo's biggest problems with the Wii U & the 3DS.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Wrong thread.
You wouldn't want a third party Nintendo. Trust me on that.
EDIT: Oh, you meant to say that in the other thread.
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