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[zomgbbqftw]

lol, it is hilarious that people are questioning well known analysts that often has insider info, unlike Patcher for instance who barely know's what he is talking about.

I'm actually not that bothered. If someone makes a suggestion that can make give a more accurate picture then that's great.

 

[uncleniccius]

Well we have the GDDR5 down as a low power variant, 1.35v 5.5Gbps, that could have comparable power characteristics to Xbone if they are using the high quality DDR3 that has been quoted around here.



Again, on what basis? Sony have said they have a dedicated chip for it, developers have told us that they are pleased that none of the social features detract from their resources and dedicated silicon isn't really costly. It makes sense to wall off the OS and background functions to a secondary chip behind a hypervisor as it will be more hack resistant.

A thread on B3D means nothing tbh, yes there is a lot of informed opinion, and yes AMD's APUs do include a encode/decode functions, but for now we'll err on the side of caution and price in dedicated silicon, if it turns out they aren't when we get inside the box then it can be eliminated as a cost, or at least reduced to a single core A7 ($3).

One of our guys think that Sony are using a dual core A9 with AV hardware and 256MB stacked RAM and the whole OS runs within those limitations. We obviously chose not to price that in!

Oh OK, thanks guys.
I had heard people claiming that the PS4 was going to overheat because "GDDR5 ram gets way hotter" and I wanted to know if it was BS.

You'd probably know this in your position Zombie, so what money do Sony make off of a retail game from a third party? Would a new third party game+a new PS4 lead to profit?

 

[Brad Grenz]

Based on cost of the wafer, yields, estimated die size and AMD's fee.

Cell cost so much because yields were very, very poor (mid twenties is what I looked up recently) and for RSX Sony got ripped off by Nvidia, who hasn't?

That high RSX figure also included the GDDR3 Video RAM which was on package with the GPU.

 

[spwolf]

Oh OK, thanks guys.
I had heard people claiming that the PS4 was going to overheat because "GDDR5 ram gets way hotter" and I wanted to know if it was BS.

You'd probably know this in your position Zombie, so what money do Sony make off of a retail game from a third party? Would a new third party game+a new PS4 lead to profit?

I think platform fee is said to be $10 for retail game.

but there are more costs involved than just building a product, a lot more... so they need to sell few games to make it even... this is where PS+ fee helps a lot...

 

[Bluekaveli]

Thank you, I've been waiting on this forever.

 

[TheGreyHulk]

Looks nice. One thing is for sure, that is that Sony had full intentions of minimizing losses in the short & mid term unlike the PS3 which took heavy, HEAVY losses initially and was still losing in the mid term. They're aiming for profitability a year after release which is very good.

 

[spwolf]

Looks nice. One thing is for sure, that is that Sony had full intentions of minimizing losses in the short & mid term unlike the PS3 which took heavy, HEAVY losses initially and was still losing in the mid term. They're aiming for profitability a year after release which is very good.

i think even bigger plus is that they might be able to shrink the costs long term as well, something they seem unable to do with PS3 right now.

 

[hamchan]

Selling it at or near cost is extremely good for Sony. A console with one game and they're already in the profit zone.

 

[strata8]

How do we know exactly what yields are like with PS4? This APU blows away any other APU AMD has produced to this point.

Put me in the "$65-80 sounds too low" camp, for a 1.8TF GPU that has an octocore CPU on board... Of course, I base that on nothing concrete and am not going to tell you you're wrong as others in this thread are trying to do from their armchairs with regard to various details.

It's possible.

2 x 4-core CPU module (26mm2) = 52mm2
Kabini uncore = 40mm2
7870 GPU die = 212mm2

So you're looking at a maximum of maybe 300mm2 for the whole APU. AMDs Trinity chips are 250mm2 and they sell those for $50-130 in retail.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

I don't think this is thread worthy so I'm posting it here.

Had a conversation with a source in semi-conductors this morning, said that one of the major memory manufacturers is currently testing 8Gbit GDDR5 chips of identical specification that would be required for 8GB at 176GB/s. The source said that chips would be ready for commercial devices by the middle of 2014 and would lower the cost for Sony by around a third if they use these chips. They added that it seems like these chips are built to order for one major buyer (Sony I'm guessing).

 

[coldfoot]

I don't think this is thread worthy so I'm posting it here.

Had a conversation with a source in semi-conductors this morning, said that one of the major memory manufacturers is currently testing 8Gbit GDDR5 chips of identical specification that would be required for 8GB at 176GB/s. The source said that chips would be ready for commercial devices by the middle of 2014 and would lower the cost for Sony by around a third if they use these chips. They added that it seems like these chips are built to order for one major buyer (Sony I'm guessing).

That's excellent news, means 8 chips instead of 16, lower motherboard complexity, lower power, and maybe $299 PS4 in holiday 2014 along with Naughty Dog's new blockbuster to completely demolish the competition?

 

[Shahed]

I don't think this is thread worthy so I'm posting it here.

Had a conversation with a source in semi-conductors this morning, said that one of the major memory manufacturers is currently testing 8Gbit GDDR5 chips of identical specification that would be required for 8GB at 176GB/s. The source said that chips would be ready for commercial devices by the middle of 2014 and would lower the cost for Sony by around a third if they use these chips. They added that it seems like these chips are built to order for one major buyer (Sony I'm guessing).

Does that mean PS4 price drop next year? Bit too soon for E3, but maybe announced at Gamescom/TGS? Or would Sony just decide to take a profit off the system instead?

Assuming this works out of course

 

[USC-fan]

That's excellent news, means 8 chips instead of 16, lower motherboard complexity, lower power, and maybe $299 PS4 in holiday 2014 along with Naughty Dog's new blockbuster to completely demolish the competition?

Shouldnt lower motherboard complexity other than having all the chips on one side.

Doubt they would drop the price that fast. I think the will drop the price when they move to 22NM chips so 2015.

 

[weekend_warrior]

There won't be a price drop that soon, Sony will just pocket the extra profit margin.

 

[SenatorBot]

Or they can just price cut it to $299 and achieve market dominance as neither MS or Nintendo can even hope to match the PS4 with that price point anymore.

Then over the years add on bundles to the $299 before a major price drop by the 4th year.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

That's excellent news, means 8 chips instead of 16, lower motherboard complexity, lower power, and maybe $299 PS4 in holiday 2014 along with Naughty Dog's new blockbuster to completely demolish the competition?

Unlikely to be a price cut. I think they will just take the extra margin and make up first year losses.

Does that mean PS4 price drop next year? Bit too soon for E3, but maybe announced at Gamescom/TGS? Or would Sony just decide to take a profit off the system instead?

Assuming this works out of course

Profit IMO.

Shouldnt lower motherboard complexity other than having all the chips on one side.

Doubt they would drop the price that fast. I think the will drop the price when they move to 22NM chips so 2015.

Since PS4 has been designed for a clamshell arrangement, I think they will go for lower complexity rather than sticking the chips all on a single side which would require and airflow redesign.

 

[The_Inquisitor]

First year they will not cut price period. I don't see that happening for at least a year and 1/2.

 

[reezoo]

Is it possible for MS to create problems for sony by lets say using GDDR5 in its own devices like Surface?

 

[Raymo]

Is it possible for MS to create problems for sony by lets say using GDDR5 in its own devices like Surface?

That's a ridiculous example, but Sony most likely has contracts in place that allocate large amounts of the chips for future use in the PS4. This is common practice.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

That's a ridiculous example, but Sony most likely has contracts in place that allocate large amounts of the chips for future use in the PS4. This is common practice.

This is what I was going to post. That's how business works.

 

[Lagspike_exe]

Is it possible for MS to create problems for sony by lets say using GDDR5 in its own devices like Surface?

Yeah, I heard Kaz called the memory guys and told them to ship 10m GDDR5 chips to Foxconn and they were like "Awwww, Ballmer already called. ". Things like these are arranged months and months before the production starts.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Is it possible for MS to create problems for sony by lets say using GDDR5 in its own devices like Surface?

Not in your wildest fanboy dreams...

 

[razgriz417]

Sounds like great news, if Sony can get these memory makers used to making GDDR5 for cheap, hopefully we'll see more GDDR5 in larger quantities on video cards as well

 

[vpance]

Moneyhat foundries? That's a new one.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Seems like everythings coming up Sony. They must be very, very pleased.

 

[reezoo]

Yeah, I heard Kaz called the memory guys and told them to ship 10m GDDR5 chips to Foxconn and they were like "Awwww, Ballmer already called. ". Things like these are arranged months and months before the production starts.

I just asked a question : ) but buzz around PS4 is very very positive. Demand might be way more than what sony has planned.

 

[reezoo]

Not in your wildest fanboy dreams...

I own PS1, PS2, PSP and PS3. Getting PS4 from wify as birthday present.

 

[pieatorium]

Unlikely to be a price cut. I think they will just take the extra margin and make up first year losses.

cutting to 350 and having a 400 camera bundle with family/party game for 2nd holiday would be more likely than a straight drop to 299 imo.

Alot of other factors to consider, how the sales momentum turns out especially in comparison to competition. If xbox starts slow ms will feel pressure to cut and if they do then sony would be crazy not to undercut and keep that advantage.

 

[DBT85]

I don't think this is thread worthy so I'm posting it here.

Had a conversation with a source in semi-conductors this morning, said that one of the major memory manufacturers is currently testing 8Gbit GDDR5 chips of identical specification that would be required for 8GB at 176GB/s. The source said that chips would be ready for commercial devices by the middle of 2014 and would lower the cost for Sony by around a third if they use these chips. They added that it seems like these chips are built to order for one major buyer (Sony I'm guessing).

Very interesting.

Didn't 4Gb only just make an appearance?

Shouldnt lower motherboard complexity other than having all the chips on one side.

Doubt they would drop the price that fast. I think the will drop the price when they move to 22NM chips so 2015.

I disagree on the motherboard, If they are definitely using clamshell for the launch models then they'll keep using it for later models unless there is some technical reason that they can't.

Do agree on the price point though. They'll make a revised model with new internals once they can use these chips, but they won't price cut until they need to or until they have 22nm chips. More likely to bundle a game or a PS+ sub than drop the price $30-40 IMO.

 

[AlStrong]

That's excellent news, means 8 chips instead of 16, lower motherboard complexity,

They may just keep using the same motherboard and instead produce devkits with 16GB (single design to maintain & produce) as right now they are limited to 8GB max*. A die shrink may be a better case for significant motherboard redesign.

*16x4Gbit chips in clamshell (16-bit I/O per chip). In clamshell mode, they're actually just splitting the 32 I/O lanes between two GDDR5 chips that normally feed a single one, so the complexity isn't really reduced. They would just be connecting the other 16 lanes to the one chip (for retail kits that only need 8x8Gbit chips).

 

[DieH@rd]

I don't think this is thread worthy so I'm posting it here.

Had a conversation with a source in semi-conductors this morning, said that one of the major memory manufacturers is currently testing 8Gbit GDDR5 chips of identical specification that would be required for 8GB at 176GB/s. The source said that chips would be ready for commercial devices by the middle of 2014 and would lower the cost for Sony by around a third if they use these chips. They added that it seems like these chips are built to order for one major buyer (Sony I'm guessing).

Sony already showcased plans to switch from sixteen 4gbit to eight 8gibit memory chips when they become available. They even shown a diagram of such memory system in a interview with some Japanese website.

And yes, they can elect not to change motherboard, just to remove one layer of chips from current clamshell configurations.

 

[Lagspike_exe]

I just asked a question : ) but buzz around PS4 is very very positive. Demand might be way more than what sony has planned.

Tretton also thinks so, so we may see some shortages, but I guess they'll stabilize the supply starting early next year.

 

[Mokubba]

I don't think this is thread worthy so I'm posting it here.

Had a conversation with a source in semi-conductors this morning, said that one of the major memory manufacturers is currently testing 8Gbit GDDR5 chips of identical specification that would be required for 8GB at 176GB/s. The source said that chips would be ready for commercial devices by the middle of 2014 and would lower the cost for Sony by around a third if they use these chips. They added that it seems like these chips are built to order for one major buyer (Sony I'm guessing).

Would this be one of the reasons they raised their internal projections or would that be for the next fiscal year?

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Would this be one of the reasons they raised their internal projections or would that be for the next fiscal year?

Next year for sure, the launch units and units built until the middle to end of next year will use the 4Gb chips for sure.

Also remember that these chips have just gone into testing so won't enter mass production for a long time.

 

[DieH@rd]

Very interesting.

Didn't 4Gb only just make an appearance?

Yeah, Q1 2013 according to Hynix predictions from Q4 2012. Nobody is still using them in the wild as far as I know.

They may just keep using the same motherboard and instead produce devkits with 16GB (single design to maintain & produce) as right now they are limited to 8GB max*. A die shrink may be a better case for significant motherboard redesign.

*16x4Gbit chips in clamshell (16-bit I/O per chip). In clamshell mode, they're actually just splitting the 32 I/O lanes between two GDDR5 chips that normally feed a single one, so the complexity isn't really reduced. They would just be connecting the other 16 lanes to the one chip (for retail kits that only need 8x8Gbit chips).

Can this possibly lead to the situation in which all launch PS4 games will not be able to use all avaiable RAM for games? If devkits have 8GB max, ~1-2 gigs would be carved out for PS4 OS, ~1 for dev tools and rest for games. Interesting situation.

 

[anexanhume]

20nm will be available next year so they could push out a shrink in 2015 for sure. I think the volume/cost curve doesn't support a 20nm version next year though.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Yeah, Q1 2013 according to Hynix predictions from Q4 2012. Nobody is still using them in the wild as far as I know.

No one is using them because Sony have likely bought up 100% of supply for the next 12 months!

 

[coldfoot]

They may just keep using the same motherboard and instead produce devkits with 16GB (single design to maintain & produce) as right now they are limited to 8GB max*. A die shrink may be a better case for significant motherboard redesign.

*16x4Gbit chips in clamshell (16-bit I/O per chip). In clamshell mode, they're actually just splitting the 32 I/O lanes between two GDDR5 chips that normally feed a single one, so the complexity isn't really reduced. They would just be connecting the other 16 lanes to the one chip (for retail kits that only need 8x8Gbit chips).

But devkits are produced in the few thousand range and sold for thousands of dollars apiece. Consoles are manufactured in the millions and they are extremely price sensitive.

Doesn't make financial sense to not cost reduce the consumer model because you don't want to keep a different design for the devkits. They can keep the launch PS4 design for the devkits with 8Gbit chips, so 16 GB GDDR5, whereas the consumer console model could have a much simpler motherboard, etc. for greater cost savings.

 

[4lejandro]

I don't think this is thread worthy so I'm posting it here.

Had a conversation with a source in semi-conductors this morning, said that one of the major memory manufacturers is currently testing 8Gbit GDDR5 chips of identical specification that would be required for 8GB at 176GB/s. The source said that chips would be ready for commercial devices by the middle of 2014 and would lower the cost for Sony by around a third if they use these chips. They added that it seems like these chips are built to order for one major buyer (Sony I'm guessing).

That's excellent news, means 8 chips instead of 16, lower motherboard complexity, lower power, and maybe $299 PS4 in holiday 2014 along with Naughty Dog's new blockbuster to completely demolish the competition?

Is it possible for MS to create problems for sony by lets say using GDDR5 in its own devices like Surface?

XBONE 16GB GDDDDRRR5 for 2014 CONFIRMED! BELIEVE!

now seriously, this is GREAT news for Sony, seems like they are catching a break after all these years of hard work (to turn the PS3 around, Vita struggles, etc) Go Sony!

 

[J-Rzez]

It would be insane if Sony actually had the most consoles available for a launch and still sold out, which is entirely possible at this point it looks.

 

[prag16]

Are you guys calling for $299 PS4 for Christmas 2014 batshit insane?


Then again, I said something similar (if less extreme) about those calling for a $399 launch price...

 

[DieH@rd]

Are you guys calling for $299 PS4 for Christmas 2014 batshit insane?

Then again, I said something similar (if less extreme) about those calling for a $399 launch price...

IMO, Sony will wait to Q1 2015 pricedrop even if they manage to put cheaper components in PS4 during late summer 2014.

 

[boredandlazy]

Only way I can see Sony reducing the PS4 price in the near to mid term is if Microsoft reduces the XBOne price first.

 

[travisbickle]

Sony have said they have a dedicated chip for it, developers have told us that they are pleased that none of the social features detract from their resources and dedicated silicon isn't really costly. It makes sense to wall off the OS and background functions to a secondary chip behind a hypervisor as it will be more hack resistant.

A thread on B3D means nothing tbh, yes there is a lot of informed opinion, and yes AMD's APUs do include a encode/decode functions, but for now we'll err on the side of caution and price in dedicated silicon, if it turns out they aren't when we get inside the box then it can be eliminated as a cost, or at least reduced to a single core A7 ($3).

One of our guys think that Sony are using a dual core A9 with AV hardware and 256MB stacked RAM and the whole OS runs within those limitations. We obviously chose not to price that in!

Anything more about this?

Am I reading it right and you think there's a separate chip/ram for the OS?

Does that mean none of the main cpu/gpu/ram resources of the PS4 will be used for OS functions? or will they still restrict cores,ram, gpu power?

 

[Vormund]

Only way I can see Sony reducing the PS4 price in the near to mid term is if Microsoft reduces the XBOne price first.

Yup. They just have room to move on price if they need to when the new chips come in.

 

[Tycho_b]

Anything more about this?

Am I reading it right and you think there's a separate chip/ram for the OS?

Does that mean none of the main cpu/gpu/ram resources of the PS4 will be used for OS functions? or will they still restrict cores,ram, gpu power?

There is a second chip running console in low power mode, for bacground updates etc. I am not sure it has a separate memory pool and/or OS is running on it

 

[zomgbbqftw]

IMO, Sony will wait to Q1 2015 pricedrop even if they manage to put cheaper components in PS4 during late summer 2014.

Q1 would be a waste of a price drop, the elasticity between January and October is quite poor so they would literally be throwing money away by cutting before around September (notice that the majority of PS3 price cuts are announced at Gamescom and come into force at the end of August).

My gut feeling is that Sony will hold the price for holiday 2014 but offer special bundles with the camera and a couple of games included for $399 and then offer a 1TB version at the same price once those are sold out in January. Then in Q4 2015 they will drop to $299 which will be possible because of 8Gb RAM chips and a 20nm APU (TSMC are targeting Q2 2014 for 20nm mass production).

Anything more about this?

Am I reading it right and you think there's a separate chip/ram for the OS?

Does that mean none of the main cpu/gpu/ram resources of the PS4 will be used for OS functions? or will they still restrict cores,ram, gpu power?

We won't know now until we can do a teardown which will have to wait until after release. I would doubt there is separate RAM though, it will just draw from the main pool.

 

[spwolf]

i wouldnt be surprised if first drop is to $349... whenever it is.

 

[Synless]

i wouldnt be surprised if first drop is to $349... whenever it is.

Yeah, it sure as hell won't be a $100 price drop right off the bat, this isn't like PS3.

 

[jeff_rigby]

Revised analysis.

APU (CPU/GPU) - 65-80
8GB GDDR5 - 80-105
OS Chip (supposedly ARM based) - 10-18
Video encode/decode chip - 0 (included in OS chip, we figure)
Blu-ray drive - 25-35
Hard drive - 30-35
I/O - 9-12
Wireless chip + antenna - 4
HDMI+HDCP - 11-15
Other - 10-30
DS4 - 20-29
Mono headset - 3
Cabling/misc - 3

Total parts/silicon - 272-364

Goto of PC Watch thinks the HDMI port is part of the Sony second custom chip. This makes sense for two reasons:

1) The CEC line needs to be monitored by the Standby routines running in the second Chip as Southbridge.
2) HDMI HDCP 2.0 can be supported by the AMD Trustzone processor. HDCP 2.0 is an update from 1.3 which only supported HDCP on HDMI to TV. HDCP 2.0 supports DRM copy protection from source (DLNA, Cloud server or Blue ray player) to any sink (Display) using a transport like Miracast, WiFi, Wide WiFi or any Network stream as well as the HDMI port to TV.

USB3 is part of the AMD APU but the other IO is part of the second custom chip if it follows the ARM Trustzone recommendations.