I think it'll do significantly better.
Yes, there are a bunch of people who didn't like the first game, but I think a lot of them were expecting something that it wasn't, and I'd imagine Kojima will add stuff to the sequel to address those expectations.
On the other hand I think plenty of people, especially on PC, found a game that was unexpectedly more in their wheelhouse than they thought. The strategy/planning elements of the game are pretty unusual for a console title after all.
I also think that this game is going to be a real technical/artistic showstopper, even more than the original, and that's going to hook in a bunch of people.