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Strict voter ID law approved in Michigan House

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At the end of the day people should just look at WHY voter ID laws are being passed to realize that it's all downhill from here. It's not about any one detail specifically, like a cited form of ID. It's about keeping people from voting.

If state ID is no longer a problem for anyone, then voting laws will suddenly show up that try to physically prevent poor people, non-white people from voting. They'll try to shut down polling stations, move them across the state, insure they're only open at certain hours in suspiciously selected places.

Yes, when it gets to that point it'll start to become hilariously unconstitutional and the lawsuits will fly, but all that Republicans have to do is insure they win just one election and they're in control for another 8 years during which they can try to fuck things even further.

Try to see the big picture here. If Republicans actually cared about the sanctity of voting, they'd be reforming state laws to enable people to get voting IDs more securely but also more easily for those who need help, so that everyone is nice, identified, and ready to properly vote. They're not doing that. At all.

Pretty much.

Don't forget, in Wisconsin, the hours were you can get an ID were cut, but only in certain areas (ie minorities).
 
Ain't photo id pretty much standard? I was asked for it in the Polish embassy.

Why is this a bad thing? It means that someone can't vote as you.

But that doesn't actually happen. What does happen is that states that have voter ID laws, it is more difficult for the worst off among us to vote, and it's been exhibited that voter ID laws can be confusing, causing someone to bring the wrong documents or have miscommunication lead to them being denied even if they have the right ones.
 
Ain't photo id pretty much standard? I was asked for it in the Polish embassy.

Why is this a bad thing? It means that someone can't vote as you.

No, it's not, and certain kinds of ID are not allowed (depending on the state's laws).

As has already been explained in the thread, many people do not have easy access to ID, especially the poor. This is exacerbated by GOP efforts to, say, close down most of the DMV locations in minority-heavy districts, thereby further restricting access.

They are efforts to reduce turnout for groups that traditionally support Democrats. That's it. GOP officials have openly admitted this fact.
 
Boss★Moogle;226287117 said:
It's not hard to get and I think it's more racist to assume that black people don't have/can't get an ID, even if you don't have a car or driver's license (I don't) you can still have a state ID, they don't cost much at all.

I know this is from Fox News, so it's to be taken with a grain of salt, but maybe it'll make some people think a little before they start make assumptions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrBxZGWCdgs

How about taking a couple minutes to read the thread. There have been numerous people describing why it's difficult for some to get an ID.

Also take your own advice on maybe thinking a little (especially if you're going to link Fox news for chrissake).
 

Nilaul

Member
No, it's not, and certain kinds of ID are not allowed (depending on the state's laws).

As has already been explained in the thread, many people do not have easy access to ID, especially the poor. This is exacerbated by GOP efforts to, say, close down most of the DMV locations in minority-heavy districts, thereby further restricting access.

They are efforts to reduce turnout for groups that traditionally support Democrats. That's it. GOP officials have openly admitted this fact.

That is horrificly messed up. It is definitely being done to restrict access to voting.

A national photo ID like in some EU countries would had been a good thing but not if it's not easily accessible to everyone and for free.
 

Breads

Banned
Probably going to have to quote this on every page.

Perspective on how hard it is to obtain government issued IDs in the post-Real ID era. As a (now former) social worker.

First, when starting from scratch to obtain an ID now require:
  • birth certificate
  • proof of residency (so a bill, mail from the government with the mail still inside, a letter from a social service agency, etc.)
  • proof of social security number
Don't have a birth certificate? Well, to obtain one it requires (you may have guessed):
  • a state issued ID!
If not, then specific to Michigan you need three documents such as:
  • w2
  • ironically, voter registration card
  • letter from the Social Security Administration
  • school records, baptism records (yep)
Don't have a social security card? Well lets make it easy and just try to obtain a replacement card:
  • State issued ID!
If not, then the Social Security Administration requires you have proof of:
  • Citizenship which requires...a birth certificate!
  • Identity which requires....a state issued ID!
But if no ID for identity, the following might work in various combinations:
  • health insurance card (hoping living in a place, unlike Michigan, with expanded Medicaid and thus easy access to insurance at all)
  • school or employer ID
  • And actually hospital records signed by a doctor with your date of birth, social security number, and name on it.
Now if you have lived a stable life and have kept, or your parents have kept, all these records then you are probably fine. Unless you happen to work jobs without paid time off, more than one job, or have obligations to children.

But that's not life for everyone. Bad things happen. Evictions, fires, robberies. And in poverty? Well good luck afford all of the above. But wait, there have been funds provided for free documents! Well, those are often held in social service agencies that already have limited resources and so require people to come in at specific times.

I spent so much damn time trying to get documents for people just to get an ID. Because bad things happen all the damn time. Struggled myself to always remember the proper order of documents to obtain. And not all are lucky enough to even have connections to social service agencies to get help with obtaining all these documents.

And funds are limited. A good question for Michiganders to ask is if the non-profit agencies that will be tasked with helping disperse these waiver funds will be actually compensated or if it will eat into their service budgets.

Oh, and the fees that are waived for people with low incomes who can prove a disability or such? They need to obtain documentation from those agencies.

Think about how long my post is and think about how willing most people are to complete all these tasks and remember that this is a barrier to the most basic of rights in our democratic republic.

Don't forget to leverage the insignificant amount of voter fraud cases (double digit) against why this is being pushed to begin with. This innocent "everyone should have an ID what's wrong with that?" bullshit is not fine and is only being tolerated since voter suppression is a new concept for a lot of people.

But making it harder for tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of people who are indeed eligible to vote is a very real thing and this is literally doing just that. Why? Because it disproportionately silences democratic voters. That's why republicans are pushing it.
 

Nilaul

Member
Edit: too snarky
For me the National Photo ID card is God send. replaces the passport (I can fly to Teahapoo on it). Each generation the card becomes smarter (stores digital information) and perhaps in the future passports will be a thing of the past and it might even replace more cards. Once the National ID card gets a major update we get a new one for free (unless you loose it).

So a EU person comming into this thread, reading the first few comments will be completly mind buzzoled until he gathers a deeper understanding of the issue at hand.
 

Keasar

Member
Where are you from?

I'm from Europe, voting without an ID seems strange to say the least, to me.

Sweden.

Republican laws in the US. tries to make it difficult to vote by asking often for specific identifications. Identifications that are difficult often for minorities in the US. to get as compared for white folk.

Getting a ID once you're a citizen of Sweden is easy (go to a local police station, take a picture and fingerprint scan, pay 200 kronor, wait 2 days and boom, new passport) and you can vote using your passport, drivers license, anything that identifies you.
 

MIMIC

Banned
They need to be free 100%, period, if you want it mandatory to vote. Read the post above you that outlines the hurdles. Maybe you have no experience with the poor and disenfranchised, but that doesnt make it right to pass laws which disproportionately impact them. Voting is a fundamental right of being a citizen, or at least it should be.

I hate to play devil's advocate in support of GOP legislation, but fundamental rights have never automatically meant "free." There are several fundamental rights that are afforded to people, but still ultimately come with a price tag (the right to marriage, running for office, abortions, etc.)

I agree that ID for voting should be relatively easy to obtain, but it being a fundamental right has never meant that it was "free."

I mean, it would be absolutely reckless and irresponsible to allow someone to vote without some sort of official identification, whether it be photo ID, a voter registration card, or something else. And maybe it should be free, but that's never been what made a right fundamental.
 

MIMIC

Banned
From the article:

But the package seeks to make it easier for Michigan residents to obtain the kind of identification that would be required to vote. The legislation would provide mechanisms for low-income residents to obtain free state ID cards or birth certificates needed to obtain one.

The legislation, as approved Thursday, includes an $8 million appropriation to finance “election modernization, voter education and implementation” of the new rules, $2 million for free birth certificates and $1 million for the free ID program. The appropriations would effectively make the law immune to voter referendum.

Am I missing something? What is wrong with this?
 

Breads

Banned
From the article:



Am I missing something? What is wrong with this?

They are changing the laws to require something that was not previously required. For reasons (that benefit the GOP and no one else). What part don't you understand?
 

MIMIC

Banned
They are changing the laws to require something that was not previously required. For reasons (that benefit the GOP and no one else). What part don't you understand?

The part where people were complaining about it being too expensive to obtain the ID necessary to vote.
 

Breads

Banned
The part where people were complaining about it being too expensive to obtain the ID necessary to vote.

Read the post I quoted above. Even if its free the hoops they are forcing people to go through is discouraging enough. They better hope they have enough free time, contacts, and a good sense of where they came from if they hope to get it all done correct because they're in for some shit if the circumstances aren't just right. And unfortunately if you're disadvantaged, like a significant portion of Detroit for example, you're looking at a lot of people who were eligible to vote no longer being able to.

For reasons.

No shit they are willing to throw millions of dollars to make it easier for them to get IDs... just as long as they are able to change the laws to their favor to make them a requirement.

If you're interested in playing devil's advocate can you at least try to explain to me why this is even necessary.
 

MIMIC

Banned
Read the post I quoted above. Even if its free the hoops they are forcing people to go through is discouraging enough. They better hope they have enough free time, contacts, and a good sense of where they came from if they hope to get it all done correct because they're in for some shit if the circumstances aren't just right. And unfortunately if you're disadvantaged, like a significant portion of Detroit for example, you're looking at a lot of people who were eligible to vote no longer being able to.

"It should be free."

"Even if it's free..."

See, I don't know what I'm supposed to do with this. Laws change. All the time. And this is seemingly making a very appropriate and reasonable accommodation in light of the changed law. You seem to be building your argument off of the most extreme of circumstances that would make these perfectly reasonable accommodations impossible. It's free, but it's too much of a bother -- in between elections -- to take advantage of it? Do you know how many other basic things I could apply this logic to?

The main argument was that it cost too much and that the government should step in and pay for this, and now that it doesn't cost anything, it takes too much time?

No shit they are willing to throw millions of dollars to make it easier for them to get IDs... just as long as they are able to change the laws to their favor to make them a requirement.

If you're interested in playing devil's advocate can you at least try to explain to me why this is even necessary.

Firstly, I was only playing devil's advocate in terms of fundamental rights meaning that the "right" came free of charge with no strings attached. But, in regards to voting requiring ID: I do think that it's necessary. It strengthens the integrity of the process and no one can question it. I mean, didn't we just go through an election where where one side out right said that voter fraud is rampant and the other side suggested that the vote was hacked? Requiring an ID is almost common sense. What don't you need an ID for?
 

Breads

Banned
You're being obtuse.

Forget time or money.

The main issue is that it's happening at all for no real justification at all.

This:

I mean, didn't we just go through an election where where one side out right said that voter fraud is rampant and the other side suggested that the vote was hacked? Requiring an ID is almost common sense. What don't you need an ID for?

Is utter bullshit for reasons already discussed in this thread. Where was the evidence of fraud that justifies shutting out tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of voters? There is none. As for requiring an ID your common sense line is asinine and only speaks to your lack of understanding at how voter registration works and what is actually being prevented by adding these new requirements. This is voter suppression by any metric and to argue for it is a moral failure.
 

KingBroly

Banned
You're being obtuse.

Forget time or money.

The main issue is that it's happening at all for no real justification at all.

When you get shit like this:
http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/12/07/michigan-ballot-recount-election/95107886/

You get justification.

Most clerks insist the mistakes are made in good faith, but state Sen. Patrick Colbeck, R-Canton, and some of his colleagues asked for a state investigation into pollbook irregularities, citing Detroit Precinct 152, where only 50 ballots were found in a container that should have had more than 300 votes.

That's Voter Fraud, clear as day. Michigan not only requires you to reconcile machine errors on that day (Which they claim machines jammed and counted ballots twice), but Michigan also does two counts of the votes to make sure they're accurate. This "error" was only discovered when the Federal Judge forced the state into a hand recount for a couple of days.
 
Quoting myself because nobody responded previously. Someone posted a link to the same Ami Horowitz video but the only response to that is that it's from Fox News, which is not a valid argument against the point it's making.

The only other persuasive argument for me has been from the social worker whose job it is to help people get ID in difficult circumstances. There are always going to be people who have difficulties with whatever social and economy systems are in place. The poster in question will disproportionately see this as an issue as he deals with it all day. It is an issue, but difficult circumstances can happen to anyone. Imagine a block of flats with young rich white able bodied people living at the top and poor elderly disabled people of colour living at the bottom. Imagine a fire destroys everyone's possessions who lives in the flats. Every single one of those people is going to have the same difficulties getting voter ID, and any difficulties they do face, for example transport, is a difficulty they would face regardless of whether they're going to get voter ID or not.

Would be interested in seeing you guys who are really against voter ID to respond to these videos. Are the points they make valid?

Ami Horowitz: How white liberals really view black voters:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rrBxZGWCdgs

Some Black Guy: Voter ID laws are racist?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ok061tgm0dg

I'm from the UK myself, when I was younger I never got my shit together to register to vote but it turned out to be pretty easy to do once I grew up enough to be bothered to do so. You need a national insurance number which I think is the equivalent to the US social security number. If you have a distaster like your house and all your worldly possessions are destroyed, yes, getting ID sorted out is probably very tedious. However for the vast majority of people I wouldn't think obtaining and presenting ID is that much of an issue.
 

MIMIC

Banned
You're being obtuse.

Forget time or money.

The main issue is that it's happening at all for no real justification at all.

No reason is going to satisfy you, but my reason for requiring ID is that it's an appropriate safeguard for such an important and fundamental local/state/federal process.

You can call me obtuse all you want, but the reality is that an ID provides a simple layer of integrity and public confidence....a layer that you're trying to unnecessarily complicate.

Is utter bullshit for reasons already discussed in this thread. Where was the evidence of fraud that justifies shutting out tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of voters? There is none. As for requiring an ID your common sense line is asinine and only speaks to your lack of understanding at how voter registration works and what is actually being prevented by adding these new requirements. This is voter suppression by any metric and to argue for it is a moral failure

See, you're so blinded with rage that you overlooked the fact that I made no such allegation. The distrust with the election is already out there. DISTRUST, not actual rampant fraud. Maybe they're justifying it on fraud, but I'm not. I think requiring IDs to vote makes perfect sense.

Because the "time and money" argument is essentially moot, let's just forget it? No. Time and money was a valid reason to object to the ID. Now that that isn't much of a problem, I'm not going to overlook that and just concentrate on minute concerns when the greatest concerns with IDs were eliminated.
 
From that article it looks like they're funding free IDs. Which if true and there isn't any other sabotage here I may not really have a problem with

Edit: I stand corrected on this after reading the good points made on getting the correct documents together
 

numble

Member
No reason is going to satisfy you, but my reason for requiring ID is that it's an appropriate safeguard for such an important and fundamental local/state/federal process.

You can call me obtuse all you want, but the reality is that an ID provides a simple layer of integrity and public confidence....a layer that you're trying to unnecessarily complicate.



See, you're so blinded with rage that you overlooked the fact that I made no such allegation. The distrust with the election is already out there. DISTRUST, not actual rampant fraud.

Because the "time and money" argument is essentially moot, let's just forget it? No. Time and money was a valid reason to object to the ID. Now that that isn't much of a problem, I'm not going to overlook that and just concentrate on minute concerns when the greatest concerns with IDs were eliminated.

Can you explain how it isn't a problem anymore? Why are you so confident that the funds will adequately address the problem? Where does it say that the time problem is mooted?
 
The main argument was that it cost too much and that the government should step in and pay for this, and now that it doesn't cost anything, it takes too much time?

That was not the "main argument". It was one of the (many) reasons.

See the various other explanations people have offered. As I mentioned, for instance, these measures are often accompanied (purely by coincidence, of COURSE) by the closing of DMVs etc. in minority-heavy districts. Even if this particular plan wouldn't require DMVs, there are other ways to effectively set things up so as to disenfranchise minority/poor voters.

Hell, to stick with the DMV example: if you don't have a license, even GETTING to the DMV can be a challenge, especially if you're poor.

Then there's the fact that these laws are a solution in search of a problem. In-person voter fraud is not a thing that happens, at least not enough to institute new systems to deal with it. It's a myth, pushed by the GOP, precisely to justify these kinds of measures - because, as I said, the GOP has ADMITTED on more than one occasion that these laws are actually about stopping Democrats from voting. There's no ambiguity.


That's Voter Fraud, clear as day. Michigan not only requires you to reconcile machine errors on that day (Which they claim machines jammed and counted ballots twice), but Michigan also does two counts of the votes to make sure they're accurate. This "error" was only discovered when the Federal Judge forced the state into a hand recount for a couple of days.

That's not actually evidence of voter fraud. It's evidence of voting irregularities. There's no reason to believe that voter ID would have made any difference.

See, all voter ID does is prevent someone from pretending to be someone else when they cast their vote. That's it. That has nothing to do with them finding the incorrect number of ballots in the box afterwards.
 

MIMIC

Banned
That was not the "main argument". It was one of the (many) reasons.

See the various other explanations people have offered. As I mentioned, for instance, these measures are often accompanied (purely by coincidence, of COURSE) by the closing of DMVs etc. in minority-heavy districts. Even if this particular plan wouldn't require DMVs, there are other ways to effectively set things up so as to disenfranchise minority/poor voters.

Hell, to stick with the DMV example: if you don't have a license, even GETTING to the DMV can be a challenge, especially if you're poor.

Then there's the fact that these laws are a solution in search of a problem. In-person voter fraud is not a thing that happens, at least not enough to institute new systems to deal with it. It's a myth, pushed by the GOP, precisely to justify these kinds of measures - because, as I said, the GOP has ADMITTED on more than one occasion that these laws are actually about stopping Democrats from voting. There's no ambiguity.

Let me be clear. I think it should be easier all around to vote: more polling places, more ways to vote, a national voting day where your employer is required to give you time during the day to vote, etc. And I think that obtaining an ID should to vote should be easier...like in this case, the government paying for it and providing programs about how to obtain such ID.

I'm not for the GOP making it harder to vote. But I do think it makes sense to require ID to vote, as it adds a layer of confidence and tangible integrity to the process. Maybe not specifically a government-issued ID, but some way that can legitimately authenticate a person.
 
It is not necessary to protect the electoral integrity. Dr WiFi's money making scam and a bunch of rightwing idiots do not make it necessary.
 
Naturally, conservative voters will be okay with this, as they're supplied with IDs so it doesn't affect them, though it further distinguishes them from the have-nots, winnowing their own social status and intensifying their sense of self worth ala segregation.
 

Apollo

Banned
need a an ID to get a job and even to apply for government assistance so I don't see why this is a problem. PPl that complain know it was a way for the democrats to cheat elections. Everyone should want fair elections.
 
need a an ID to get a job and even to apply for government assistance so I don't see why this is a problem. PPl that complain know it was a way for the democrats to cheat elections. Everyone should want fair elections.

Show your work. If it's a way for "democrats to cheat elections", surely you can provide some evidence of that happening.
 
Show your work. If it's a way for "democrats to cheat elections", surely you can provide some evidence of that happening.
Has anyone provided any evidence that it helps anyone? I posted an article by Nate Cohn earlier in the thread where he, ahem, shows his work as for why he doesn't think these laws make a difference and everyone ignored it, continuing the thread as though it's just a given that it benefits the Republicans.
 

ty_hot

Member
In Brazil you can vote with any ID you have, it just need to have a picture. Wierd thing is: there is a Voters ID, that doesnt have your photo on it and thus wont allow you to vote. This "Voter's ID'" is not obligatory for absolutely anything in the country, there is not a single thing that you can't do unless you have one of those.

Btw, the electoral process in the USA is a total joke.
 

Breads

Banned
Has anyone provided any evidence that it helps anyone? I posted an article by Nate Cohn earlier in the thread where he, ahem, shows his work as for why he doesn't think these laws make a difference and everyone ignored it, continuing the thread as though it's just a given that it benefits the Republicans.

What does this have to do with the claim that democrats are cheating elections or that these laws are being put in place to make elections "fair".
 
What does this have to do with the claim that democrats are cheating elections or that these laws are being put in place to make elections "fair".

I made no comment about them being brought in to make it fair (that's clearly not the intention), and it's to do with the claim that it helps democrats because my point (by way of Nate Cohn) is that it doesn't help anyone, republican or democrat.
 

WedgeX

Banned
Has anyone provided any evidence that it helps anyone? I posted an article by Nate Cohn earlier in the thread where he, ahem, shows his work as for why he doesn't think these laws make a difference and everyone ignored it, continuing the thread as though it's just a given that it benefits the Republicans.

Cohn's whole argument assumes that because people without IDs don't vote as often then the affect is negligible. Never mind that the North Carolina case that Cohn references it comes out to approximately 127000 people without ID who voted who would need to obtain an ID or be forced to cast a provisional ballot. And we know, specifically in Michigan's case, that provisional ballots are only counted if a person can obtain identification within ten days of the election. And,well, see my previous post on the difficulty of doing so.

And Cohn randomly quotes Nate Silver as showing the "dubious" strength of relationship between voter ID and Republicans winning. Well. Silver doesn't touch strength of relationship at all. Silver is only talking about statistical significance which he logically dismisses regarding strength of a relationship since it...well, doesn't do that. And Silver declines to mention correlational coefficients. Silver does believe that there is an effect, although small, and actually shows his work:

jXR6OH5.png


And this was directly after 2012 where Obama won handedly. So then Silver did not think it made much of a difference with such wide margins. But as we saw in this election, the small swings are very important.

Then combine Silver's rough study with the LA Times:

LA Times said:
My colleagues Nazita Lajevardi and Lindsay Nielson and I analyzed validated voting data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study in order to follow voter turnout from 2006 through 2014 among members of different groups — almost a quarter-million Americans in all — in states with and without strict ID laws.

The patterns are stark. Where strict identification laws are instituted, racial and ethnic minority turnout significantly declines.

One way we analyzed the data was to compare the gap in turnout among races and ethnic groups. It is well established that minorities turn out less than whites in most elections in the United States. Our research shows that the racial turnout gap doubles or triples in states that enact strict ID laws.

Latinos are the biggest losers. Their turnout is 7.1 percentage points lower in general elections and 5.3 percentage points lower in primaries in strict ID states than it is in other states. Strict ID laws lower African American, Asian American and multi-racial American turnout as well. In fact, where these laws are implemented, white turnout goes up marginally, compared with non-voter ID states.

The racial and ethnic patterns persist even after we control for factors other than voter ID laws. We ran the data to check the influence of other state-level electoral laws that encourage or discourage participation, of particular issues in each state and congressional district, of the overall partisanship of each state, and of an array of individual demographic characteristics. Regardless of how we looked at the data, we found that strict voter ID laws suppress minority votes.

...

The political effects are strongest in primary elections. The turnout gap between Republicans and Democrats in primary contests more than doubles from 4.3 points in states without strict ID laws to 9.8 points in states with strict ID laws. Likewise, the gap between conservatives and liberals more than doubles from 7.7 to 20.4 points.

And we get a direction of where voter turnout among targeted populations is going to be.
 

Amir0x

Banned
I hate to play devil's advocate in support of GOP legislation, but fundamental rights have never automatically meant "free." There are several fundamental rights that are afforded to people, but still ultimately come with a price tag (the right to marriage, running for office, abortions, etc.)

I agree that ID for voting should be relatively easy to obtain, but it being a fundamental right has never meant that it was "free."

I mean, it would be absolutely reckless and irresponsible to allow someone to vote without some sort of official identification, whether it be photo ID, a voter registration card, or something else. And maybe it should be free, but that's never been what made a right fundamental.

Marriage is not like voting. Who is elected impacts everybody, and passing id laws which disproportionately impact the poor and disenfranchised is bullshit and immoral.

You want to require IDs for voting, you provide them for free. If people dont want to do that because they are selfish pricks with their tax dollars, then they need to fuck off with the request. Poll taxes by any other name is still a goddamn poll tax.
 

sangreal

Member
need a an ID to get a job and even to apply for government assistance so I don't see why this is a problem. PPl that complain know it was a way for the democrats to cheat elections. Everyone should want fair elections.
You think a way for people to cheat elections is to go to another registered voters polling place and cast their vote for them? Oh and of course you also have to make sure they don't vote themselves
 
Cohn's whole argument assumes that because people without IDs don't vote as often then the affect is negligible. Never mind that the North Carolina case that Cohn references it comes out to approximately 127000 people without ID who voted who would need to obtain an ID or be forced to cast a provisional ballot. And we know, specifically in Michigan's case, that provisional ballots are only counted if a person can obtain identification within ten days of the election. And,well, see my previous post on the difficulty of doing so.

And Cohn randomly quotes Nate Silver as showing the "dubious" strength of relationship between voter ID and Republicans winning. Well. Silver doesn't touch strength of relationship at all. Silver is only talking about statistical significance which he logically dismisses regarding strength of a relationship since it...well, doesn't do that. And Silver declines to mention correlational coefficients. Silver does believe that there is an effect, although small, and actually shows his work:

jXR6OH5.png


And this was directly after 2012 where Obama won handedly. So then Silver did not think it made much of a difference with such wide margins. But as we saw in this election, the small swings are very important.

Wait, what? That's not after the election, that's before the election - written in July, the election was in November. The red column is his expected impact on the swing (though the table doesn't make that obvious). It's not actually possible to know if his estimation is right - after all, maybe the swing in a given state was for a totally different reason. But we can look at the results on 2012 compared to 2008 and see if there's a correlation between the states he mentioned swinging further than those with no laws (or no changed laws). The ones he listed had the following swing:

Pennsylvania - 2.7 swing (this voter ID law was nixed before the election though, I believe)
Kansas - 3.6 swing
Idaho - 3.4 swing
Tennessee - 2.7 swing
Oklahoma - 1.1 swing
Rhode Island - 0.2 swing
Utah - 10 swing

Here's the swing for some states which don't have any voter ID laws at all:

Wyoming - 4.6 swing
West Virginia - 7.0 swing
New York - 0.1 swing
Illinois - 4.3 swing
California - 1.0 swing

It's still almost impossible to tell what impact the laws had. Silver predicted Utah would swing an extra 0.4% due to the voter ID laws, but it ended up swinging 10% so clearly there was something that pissed off the good people of Utah. He estimated it would have a 0.4% impact in Rhode Island, but the total swing only ended up being 0.2%. He showed his working, yes, but that doesn't mean he's right.

Then combine Silver's rough study with the LA Times:

And we get a direction of where voter turnout among targeted populations is going to be.

This doesn't show any workings at all, they just say that they accounted for "an array of individual demographic characteristics". It looks at the changes in demographic voting trends and appears to assign this entirely to voter ID laws. Maybe they're right.

We don't have demographic data on voting, though. We have a few estimates but even they can be hard to actually get to the bottom of (that this was written by Nate Cohn is a coincidence - it was the first thing I found on Google whilst searching for some numbers). Effectively we have hypothesis with no control. When millions up and down the country that voted for Obama in 2012 but stayed at home in 2016, how can you tell the effect that voter ID laws have?
 
Yeah, Michigan is a GOP state now. Fuck.

Things like this is why the GOP will never die.

They have the grass roots game, they even have memes. They can motivate their voters, and they control the media.

That's why they'll always sneak back into politics. You can't rely on social issues, the hypocrit card, and comedy (how the hell does that create the urgency to go out and vote) to get the Democratic base going. We really should be doing the exact same things the Republicans are doing, but Dems can't seem to get that going.
 

jabuseika

Member
Canadian Requirements from Elections Canada.

I'm not sure what people want to ultimately see in Michigan but I think some sort of ID is important as long as there is an easy and affordable way of acquiring identification. I believe the Provincial ID card costs around $35 CAD.

https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontario-photo-card

In Mexico, they also require a very specific ID to be able to vote at all levels.

If they're providing free ID cards, I don't see the problem. I think gerrymandering of voting districts is a bigger problem for minorities.
 
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