Doug Heffernan
Member
Are you from the future?
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When do you think Microsoft will react to potentially losing next gen battle?
- Thread starter Tak3n
- Start date
Are you from the future?
Louis Cyphre
Banned
A $500 game console isn't going to be aimed at casuals in the first place. They need to get the price down for that. The point is you cannot generalize on how to release a game platform, otherwise they would all be the same with the same results. We've seen $600 game systems persevere and we've seen $200 game consoles die quickly. We've also seen hardcore devices like Vita fall flat while a casual system like the Wii wins a generation.
Let me guess, you hope for door #2 and will keep the doom and gloom comments coming until it happens.
It's not about "doom & gloom," it's about what's based on reality. Everyone's been saying the same thing.
I hope so. This 8-10 year cycle is too long especially with how fast technology is moving. 5-6 years is fine with backwards compatibility.
Dragonborn
Member
You don't have to be from the future to see the obvious. MS will never gain parity WW, at best (assuming the stars align for them) they'll do it in NA, but everywhere else? Not even close.
Since all the murmurs of investor discontent with Xbox started last year, and increased since Ballmer announced his resignation, I can't see how the Xbox can be sold off to another, external party.
The Xbox is tied into Microsoft services too tightly. How would Live subscriptions work? Smartglass integration? Skydrive integration? Windows app store integration?
I could see Xbox being spun off as a subsidiary. Still owned by MS, standing on its own and not supported by other MS revenue streams to obfuscate its financial success or otherwise. I just can't see how an Amazon/Samsung etc could take over the brand, without taking over a ton of other MS brands at the same time.
Can anyone with more business acumen than I comment on what I've just said?
The Xbox is tied into Microsoft services too tightly. How would Live subscriptions work? Smartglass integration? Skydrive integration? Windows app store integration?
I could see Xbox being spun off as a subsidiary. Still owned by MS, standing on its own and not supported by other MS revenue streams to obfuscate its financial success or otherwise. I just can't see how an Amazon/Samsung etc could take over the brand, without taking over a ton of other MS brands at the same time.
Can anyone with more business acumen than I comment on what I've just said?
Uno Venova
Banned
Like Hindle said, MS is going to make an effort to take Europe any second now, there's you parity.
OboroShogun
Banned
Worst case scenario is that they cut the price to match PS4 and people still don't bite. I think their best choice if the trouncing continues is to drop Kinect AND cut the price to $349. That way even if they are losing the graphics war they can sell it on decent first party exclusives, moderate third party money hats and a cheaper platform.
SwiftDeath
Member
Yep they don't even have crazy projections. Just 40% of the marketshare in Germany for instance
PS4 sold 250k, Xbox One 100k in Germany
Oh
Pop
Member
Just think, if you wanna get married and need a ring well you're in luck. Free Bones for everyone.
As for the numbers, Microsoft is getting whopped. Their one and only chance was Murica' and they're getting smashed here too. I'm not too surprised really with such a poor showing last year and what they really wanted to do to us gamers. They're the ones who did it to themselves. No amount of 180s is going to fix everyone's problems with them and that growth they call Kinect that most don't want or need. They're in hot fire right now and I'm not shocked as of now and I don't see March fixing any problems either.
As for the numbers, Microsoft is getting whopped. Their one and only chance was Murica' and they're getting smashed here too. I'm not too surprised really with such a poor showing last year and what they really wanted to do to us gamers. They're the ones who did it to themselves. No amount of 180s is going to fix everyone's problems with them and that growth they call Kinect that most don't want or need. They're in hot fire right now and I'm not shocked as of now and I don't see March fixing any problems either.
Again what is the fascination with dropping the kinect? It makes no sense! Why not make it $400 with kinect and a game?
The kinect is a great piece of tech. It's a feature that Sony can't match. They need to keep it
It always seemed strange to me that they were happy to gut their presence and influence in gaming on their own platform(Windows) to push another more expensive platform(for Microsoft) that by all accounts has pretty slim profit margins.
As a PC gamer what you said is blasphemous and I hope Microsoft keeps doing what they are doing. PC gaming is doing great and the last thing i need is Microsoft trying to throw around their weight again.
SwiftDeath
Member
Because the Xbox division doesn't want to give you the Kinect for free? Adding it to the package likely adds ~75 USD
Keeping it in the package while dropping the price $100, across say 10 million units sold before they can cut costs in a more meaningful way would result in 750 million to 1 billion dollars of unforeseen cost.
It might be a great piece of tech on paper, but much like the WiiU's Gamepad, there just isn't the software to justify it.
The single most mind boggling thing MS have done with the Xbone is base the entire console around the new Kinect, then not make any games for it to sell it to the masses. Not only that, but they seem to know that core gamers dislike it, so have rarely promoted it.
It's a dead weight, which is responsible for the high price of the Xbone, and gives little to no positive contribution to selling the troubled console to the wider market.
If they drop Kinect, they can fight the PS4 with cost. If the Xbone had launched $100 cheaper than the PS4, I'm sure the sales of the Xbox wouldn't be anywhere near as bleak as they are. The UK is a very cost sensitive market, for instance. But that wasn't something MS could do without making a massive lose per console, due to how much Kinect costs to include.
infiniteheteroskdasticity
Member
I agree to a point. It will be difficult but not impossible to transition. Luckily Amazon already has like for like equivalents for all those services and the Windows app store isn't really truly cross platform - the Xbox One has its own store. Amazon could likely transition Azure to Amazon's own cloud, Xbox Live subscriptions into Amazon's existing accounts, Skydrive to Amazon's cloud storage and Smartglass is just an app. The difficult thing is the Xbox One OS. It's got a lot of linkages back to Windows and any takeover of Xbox would have to include a licensing agreement where Microsoft provides support for the OS for a while or where they completely license the codebase etc to Amazon. Either way, a Amazon takeover would be complicated and any transition would likely be a stopgap until they announce a Xbox Two or something.
I can still see it happening for the right price but a spinoff into a separate subsidiary is far more likely.
Relativ9
Member
They need to recoupe the cost of R&D, once they've paid for the thing in either software or hardware they'll start lowering prices significantly. They dont have to beat Sony, just turn a profit. They're not going to sell the thing at a loss when it isnt guaranteed they could make it up in software sales and gold subscriptions.
Louis Cyphre
Banned
You may hope but not everyone wants or thinks MS will sell off the XBox division. Not everyone thinks the XBox One is selling as terribly as you make it out to be either. I have read quite a few comments about how the XBox One has actually outsold the XBox 360 in the same time frame. I have also read conflicting stories about the revenue XBox generates for Microsoft. You suggest it's lost them money every year. Do you or anyone else have any real data to back that up?
Dragonborn
Member
No, a strong launch is great but it doesn't matter in the long run if it doesn't sell consistently well. The X1 is tracking ahead of the 360 because of it's big launch. To put things into perspective, it's first Jan. was far below the 360's first Jan.
If you want proof of big launch =/= guaranteed success, ask the Wii U.
MikeXXIeaf
Banned
I don't think "losing" means to them what it means to you.
I think Sony launching in the same year is a great deal because early mindshare probably aid the momentum of the console into its mid-late cycle. So I reckon Microsoft has been reacting ever since the backlash of their console last year, they wanted a Wii phenomenon with Kinect but it backfires instead. Now that PS4 is cheaper, more powerful and has a history of delivering games the 'hardcore' mass wanted through first party studios, it's really hard for Xbox to come back.
OboroShogun
Banned
No one wants it though or at least not the vast majority. Even at the same price as Sony with a piece of tech no one wants, the majority of people are paying the same price for weaker tech. Dropping 100 bux and keeping the same productions costs is more of a financial hit than drop 150 and ditching about 70-90 bux worth of production costs and makes the product more attractive for the majority of people. That's my 2 cents.
Louis Cyphre
Banned
That is likely because MS over shipped the system and stock sat there. We will have a better idea in the next couple of months how it is tracking. When did the XBox 360 sell as much as the XBox One has so far?
My 2 cents is that people who haven't used it are the ones who don't want it. Or people that have no intentions on buying an xbox no matter what MS does to improve.
But I respect your opinion on the lowering costs, but I do believe MS needs something that stands out and they need to market the kinect better. They just can't be a weaker system at a lower cost IMO.
Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
Probably nothing this generation has just begun. Contrary to whatever people may want to happen.
Nobody who? Vast majority of what? There's no way to quantify your claims apart from your own anti Kinect bias.
Maybe a lot of GAF, but you can't even get GAF to unanimously agree about the worthlessness of Kinect, and this is just a tiny sliver of the gaming community.
Present circumstances show the Xbox brand is strongest in the living room, Windows PC gaming is weak, and Valve has tens of millions of users in community. It wouldn't be very bright to just make a switch when PCs are on the decline and they struggle with mobile and tablets. The TV is still relevant and will continue to be so for a while to come, so they should hold onto what they have while they build up on other screens. Maybe someday they won't need the TV, but right now they do less they want to go up against Valve.
All the PC studio closures (and Kinect focus...less new IP...DRM...) happened shortly after Mattrick joined. He's gone now, so it would be interesting to see what the team can do across multiple devices without him. Team Dakota has Project Spark on Windows 8 and Xbox One, Lift London has 3 or 4 games for mobile/tablet, and even Rare has a new job posting calling for experience with responsive design experience across devices. Additionally, MS has been testing streaming games to multiple Windows devices. I wouldn't say they're sitting on their hands, just slowly picking up the pieces after Mattrick.
Ultimately, I think the answer is to be on all screens and it's silly to count them out of anything long term.
January
Except they are not being profitable with the amount of Xbones they sold in terms of the amount of Xbones they still have in the stores.
Noones getting profitable at this point of time. They have yet to recoup R&D costs.
OboroShogun
Banned
I personally don't want to talk to my console or use motion controls for anything. They just aren't the level yet where actual complex games can use them. As much as we all want to do real dragon punches in Street Fighter do you ever see a complex fighting or action games being played with Kinect? The latency is alone is still to much of a problem even with the new Kinect. Even if it actually had software it's all as simple as the most basic Wii shovel ware but it doesn't even have that.
I believe they possibly would've dropped it already if it wasn't for the fact they manufactured a bunch that wouldn't sell otherwise and their OS is so dependant on it and it was too close to launch to scrap it.
If what we have seen so far is Microsoft reacting to Sony in an attempt to counter them, one must ask what they actually think a counter is? I was a huge Xbox and Xbox 360 fanboy but I wont buy an Xbox One unless the games are better than what the PS4 offers.
At the mid to end of the last gen console cycle if you had asked what the actual gamers wanted, I bet hardly any would have said a less powerful console with a next to useless forced peripheral in kinect. Had MS actually had some killer experiences available harnessing the Kinect this may have been a different story, but I reckon its safe to say the motion control stuff is a fad to serious and casual gamers alike.
At the mid to end of the last gen console cycle if you had asked what the actual gamers wanted, I bet hardly any would have said a less powerful console with a next to useless forced peripheral in kinect. Had MS actually had some killer experiences available harnessing the Kinect this may have been a different story, but I reckon its safe to say the motion control stuff is a fad to serious and casual gamers alike.
I think you've spent a bit too much time reading the "MS investors want to ax xbox division" thread.
You have to realize that not a single person posting there is a market expert, or a financial expert, or anyone even remotely qualified to make these kinds of statements, so don't take them as fact.
I'm always mystified in threads like these by people who STILL, in 2014, are doing the whole "Console Warz" thing. I mean, hell, I was a huge Nintendo fanboy growing up, and always will have a soft spot in my heart for Mario Inc., but I'm confused by how adults can really buy into the notion that these companies are in some way benevolent forces only concerned with creating "great experiences for great gamers!". They want your money, and they're trying to most effectively manipulate you into parting with it. I'm sure that there are plenty of individual developers and people within these companies who love gaming and really do care, but their heart is rendered more or less irrelevant by the crushing demands of free market capitalism.
That being said, PS4 is a system that's cheaper and more powerful than the Xbone. It's also, by most accounts, substantially easier to program for. It will win this console generation.
Exclusives don't matter anymore, because exclusives are stupid from a sales standpoint. That's why Nintendo has been so utterly fucked of late, because publishers aren't dumping millions into software that "takes advantage of the platform", thereby placing all of their eggs into one tiny basket within an extremely volatile market. People want cheap boxes to play the latest CoD/Assasin's Creed/Madden/etc., and the PS4 does that cheaper and better, therefore it wins. If you think that being able to talk to your console or "snap" to a TV show is a $100 luxury that the average person will buy into, you're living in a fandom bubble.
That being said, PS4 is a system that's cheaper and more powerful than the Xbone. It's also, by most accounts, substantially easier to program for. It will win this console generation.
Exclusives don't matter anymore, because exclusives are stupid from a sales standpoint. That's why Nintendo has been so utterly fucked of late, because publishers aren't dumping millions into software that "takes advantage of the platform", thereby placing all of their eggs into one tiny basket within an extremely volatile market. People want cheap boxes to play the latest CoD/Assasin's Creed/Madden/etc., and the PS4 does that cheaper and better, therefore it wins. If you think that being able to talk to your console or "snap" to a TV show is a $100 luxury that the average person will buy into, you're living in a fandom bubble.
That ship sailed when Apple started making a killing on iOS apps, and Valve started on SteamOS. Microsoft values the Xbox over Windows for gaming because they don't get any license fees from Windows games and Valve made SteamOS because they feared what MS could do with the Windows 8 store. MS really needed a consumer strategist CEO when they started the X1 and Windows/Phone 8 because Ballmer didn't know what the hell he was doing on the consumer side
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
This. For better or worse, multiplats will define this generation. The era of "exclusive system sellers" died around the PS2 era. Only the hardcore really care about that and they stop mattering about the 10m sold mark.
Having units in stores is not equivalent to meeting sales goals. Of course with R&D it will take a long time for these consoles/games to start making MS or Sony money. However, to say just a few months after a system has come out (which has sold 3 million units) that it needs a turn around is crazy.
From what i understand xbox has never made any profits just losses that's why some shareholders are tying to push MS to get rid off it.
The crazy thing is that many non-hardcore gamers do not see the appeal of the PS4 at all. I have plenty of friends who fall into the Madden, Call of Duty, and maybe one other game per year category. They were so satisfied with their Xbox 360 last gen that they are waiting for either a price drop or the next Halo to come out (or a COD that truly showcases next-gen capabilities).
I have tried to tell them that the PS4 controller is much improved over the PS3, the advantages to PS Plus, and some exclusive information but they are very comfortable with the idea of staying in the Microsoft ecosystem.
While I do think that Microsoft will need to make some changes at E3 (aka price drop), I do not think they are OVERLY worried. They are definitely not satisfied, but the console race is still early.
Also, while Gran Turismo is a system seller, how long will it be until a full PS4 version is released? (Not a prologue). You drop the price of the XB1 at E3 and release Halo this Fall, that will push A LOT of units.
Not saying that I think XB1 will win but these margains of victory for Sony will not sustain.
I have tried to tell them that the PS4 controller is much improved over the PS3, the advantages to PS Plus, and some exclusive information but they are very comfortable with the idea of staying in the Microsoft ecosystem.
While I do think that Microsoft will need to make some changes at E3 (aka price drop), I do not think they are OVERLY worried. They are definitely not satisfied, but the console race is still early.
Also, while Gran Turismo is a system seller, how long will it be until a full PS4 version is released? (Not a prologue). You drop the price of the XB1 at E3 and release Halo this Fall, that will push A LOT of units.
Not saying that I think XB1 will win but these margains of victory for Sony will not sustain.
SwiftDeath
Member
The Halo released this fall is almost certainly going to be the Halo 2 Anniversary Edition and not Halo 5. Halo 5 will likely be 2015
IAmRandom31
Banned
If I were MS I would be releasing a new SKU With GDDR5, no kinect and a beefed up APU and hand out 4 million trade vouchers for people who already bought the system.
No way the X1 will survive 6 more years of engine enhancements while struggling with standard last gen ports and having to go down to 720p for most newer engines. Will be unimaginable what they may be forcing devs to do even 2 years from now.
The trade would essentially be what they did with the replacement program for busted 360s. But do it fast while you only have maybe 4,000,000 to replace and not 10,000,000 at the end of next year.
No way the X1 will survive 6 more years of engine enhancements while struggling with standard last gen ports and having to go down to 720p for most newer engines. Will be unimaginable what they may be forcing devs to do even 2 years from now.
The trade would essentially be what they did with the replacement program for busted 360s. But do it fast while you only have maybe 4,000,000 to replace and not 10,000,000 at the end of next year.
Dragonborn
Member
And H2, while no doubt good, won't push systems, no where near what Halo 5 would do. Makes me wonder why they pushed it back, I would have thought they'd try their best to get it out this year.
IAmRandom31
Banned
I am picturing Scotty right now at 343 hitting switches trying hard to get the engine to accept 1080p but " WE NEED MORE POWER CAPTAIN! " lol.
Sorry, but it is kind of funny.
Due to resolution-gate I think the XB1 will always be 1 step graphically behind this generation. And short of an XB1 hardware upgrade (which isn't going to happen) Sony will continue to eat Microsoft's lunch this gen.
The only card Microsoft can play is to start the next gen ASAP by making this gen as short as possible.. 3-5 years max and announce a new console.
The only card Microsoft can play is to start the next gen ASAP by making this gen as short as possible.. 3-5 years max and announce a new console.
Crimson_Gold
Member
With investors already calling for The division to be sold, this would be suicide
This.
The moment Jack Tretton announced PS3's status quo for game libraries and people going ape shit live, rising and praising Sony, who ended this beautiful moment with an ad that went viral within hours and journalists not stopping to ask Mattrick and MS devs about DRM, Microsoft knew they had to fix their shit up.
Still a lot of work to do, though. Like getting rid of that obligatory Kinect.
I'm still bitter at MS for making me fear for a shit online-only gen for months.
JoeHeartsock
Neo Member
XB1 isn't dead yet, actually I want Titanfall, and Dead Rising 3 more than any exclusives for PS4. But for $100 cheaper, plus (slightly but still noticeably) better graphics, I am getting a PS4. The other issue is, all the exclusives I want on XB1, are 3rd party. I have more faith in Sony's 1st party than MS'.
I can see them slowly freeing up more RAM, Processing Power, and GPU memory to the gaming side of things. Keep in mind, with updates they can change the efficiency of how these things operate, even if they didn't want to drop some features all together.
Did they not make any profit in the 360 era? I know they spent a crap load on R&D, especially for the first Xbox.
Most compelling argument I've seen so far for MS pulling out of the home console market. Focusing on their existing successful platform and expanding on it instead would surely reap more rewards for them than playing distant second fiddle to Sony the whole generation long. Well said.
I can honestly say I never thought about it this way and this makes a damning argument for the future of the XB1. At this point the only compelling reason I see MS having to keep producing and selling XB1s is as a trojan horse for NuAds. NuAds could theoretically make them insane amounts of money despite being genuinely despicable and downright orwellian in it's potential to become a corporate empowered "Big Brother". Frankly Kinect + MS's NuAds coupled with the recent revocation of Net Neutrality have the makings of a terrifyingly convenient mutually corporate beneficial/ consumer detrimental situation. It's going to be an interesting console generation.
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