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(WIRED) Nintendo: 2mil Switch to be shipped worldwide in March

Krakatoa

Member
For comparison:

2 Million Xbox One's were sold 18 days after launch, up to 3 Million a month and a half after launch
4.2 Million PS4's were sold a month and a half after launch
3.06 Million Wii U's were sold a month and half after launch

The Xbox one wasn't a global release either.
 

Lan Dong Mik

And why would I want them?
They told me this at gamestop when i pre ordered it on Saturday. First system I've ever pre ordered. Can't fucking wait!!! I'll be one of them two million ;)
 

FyreWulff

Member
That's...Pretty conservative, which is good I think?

Selling shit is always an art. You always want to have supply BUT you don't want to have too much sitting in warehouses and storage, so you try to sweet spot it somewhere in between having enough backstock but also avoiding it sitting and rotting on the shelves and getting clearanced out.

And despite what people think making a second factory actually makes this worse
 

maxcriden

Member
When Kimishima said this in October, he did also mention they'd be able to increase supply beyond this to meet demand if there was an indication of greater demand.
 

bman94

Member
And those are WW numbers yes? In addition, as Reggie stated March isn't exactly the greatest market season especially when usually consoles launch in the holiday season. I suppose this number makes sense.

I mean yeah, but they are releasing this with no competition hardware wise. If they released Holiday 2016 they would have the PS4 Pro to compete with. If they released Holiday 2017 they would have Xbox Scorpio to compete with. Really March or Early Summer/Late Spring would have been the most ideal situation.
 
What's the last system that launched around this period?

There isn't a lot of precedent in the industry for a launch like this. On the one hand, it still feels like a mistake to miss a holiday season. On the other hand, using the March - December time frame as a rolling preparation to prepare for a holiday season may be even smarter. The system will have 2 huge games and several possible innovative killer apps by then, which is kind of exactly what you want when you enter a holiday season.
 
2 mil worldwide? That seems very low.. unsure if I'll get my pre-order now, even though I ordered an hour after they became available on Best Buy.
 
That has been the plan since the financial meeting. Considering how early in the month the Switch will release in, that's very conservative.
 
So with this would the launch games sell better than normal?
I could easily see Zelda over a million and maybe bomberman does well? Also 1 2 Switch will do decent maybe?
 

lenovox1

Member
So with this would the launch games sell better than normal?
I could easily see Zelda over a million and maybe bomberman does well? Also 1 2 Switch will do decent maybe?

That will have more to do with the fact that there are, what, seven launch titles total for all regions?
 

deleted

Member
That numbers seemed okay when we thought, the Switch would launch mid to end of March. Now it's on the low end. Hopefully my preorder is safe.

So with this would the launch games sell better than normal?
I could easily see Zelda over a million and maybe bomberman does well? Also 1 2 Switch will do decent maybe?

Launch games often sell more than they'd otherwise. Zelda should be almost 1:1 over the first month, considering it's gonna be a phenomenon.
The other games will sell far less, but I can see Bomberman doing alright if the price is okay.
 
...I think 3M would be better, but to be fair that's with the benefit of hindsight seeing this sold out everywhere for preorders....

Hopefully they will adjust the stock according to demand in the past week.

I'd hope so but sounds like this is it until April. Even if people think the price is high I feel like a 2 million launch is fairly conservative...

Very unlikely to step up production in any significant way 45 days before the launch considering the logistics.

Yeah, does not seem likely that production will be increased, as was discussed in another thread. But then again:
When Kimishima said this in October, he did also mention they'd be able to increase supply beyond this to meet demand if there was an indication of greater demand.

...Wonder if they'll manufacture more or reallocate supply based on regional demand. 250,000 on the waiting list for one retailer in one region seems like a lot...

...At least they can see where the sales are and supply those supply constrained areas first after launch...
 

Moneal

Member
I mean yeah, but they are releasing this with no competition hardware wise. If they released Holiday 2016 they would have the PS4 Pro to compete with. If they released Holiday 2017 they would have Xbox Scorpio to compete with. Really March or Early Summer/Late Spring would have been the most ideal situation.
They really should have released in mid may right before e3. It would have moved them out of the spring deluge of games, horizon nier me:a ghost recon persona. Also mario kart and arms would be ready for launch.
 

guek

Banned
Erring on the side of caution with a slightly lower initial shipment isn't such a bad idea as long as they can quickly meet most of the demand after the first month.

This is Nintendo though so I wouldn't be surprised if there are supply issues all the way through 2017.
 

viHuGi

Banned
PS3 in Europe. It was fairly easy to get hold of. But it was £425 in the UK

Although the cost and delay pushed a lot of PS gamers towards the 360

Ps3 cost 599€ back in the day over here, still sold out initially, I had a 360 back then which cost me 449€ with Call of Duty 2.
 

bman94

Member
They really should have released in mid may right before e3. It would have moved them out of the spring deluge of games, horizon nier me:a ghost recon persona. Also mario kart and arms would be ready for launch.

True. Spring 2017 is pretty packed. Injustice 2 & Tekken 7 as well.

You think that even a handheld has a chance at 2M sales in Japan in March?

3ds took 6 months to ship that many.

If they had Pokemon & Monster Hunter at launch probably.
 

LoveCake

Member
Does anyone know how long it actually takes Foxconn to manufacture a Switch, would it be an hour maybe from start to finish and what is Foxconn's capacity, I understand that the customer (Nintendo) would say that they want (x) units and Foxconn would say that will take (y) days so what does x + y = ?

I think it really comes down to who is dictating demand, we know that Nintendo likes to keep numbers down, but wouldn't they want to get as many units out while the buzz is high at launch, or are the retailers only placing orders/requests for small numbers of units, I really think this is the key.
 
2 million should be for Japan only tbh

For reference, there is a pretty fierce debate on whether it will sell 2 million all year in Japan in the Media-Create thread. Some are only predicting 1.5 million with the current lineup.

Zelda is not as big of a franchise over there as it is in the US.
 
For reference, there is a pretty fierce debate on whether it will sell 2 million all year in Japan in the Media-Create thread. Some are only predicting 1.5 million with the current lineup.

Zelda is not as big of a franchise over there as it is in the US.
For what it's worth, I think the Ghibli-esque visuals and voice-acting do have some chance of inspiring some movement in sales there. Dunno how much though.
 

dezzy8

Member
1:1 tie ratio?

I presume the tie ratio will be high, especially among early adopters, but resellers and non-zelda fans make such a thing unrealistic.
Very true. I'm buying this and Zelda at launch. If I see people paying thousands on eBay for the Switch, I'm gonna have to part ways.
 

jjonez18

Member
Sounds like they are gonna leave Europe and RoTW to fight for scraps. Japan and NA are probably gonna account for 75% of that total.
 

Reallink

Member
Sounds like they are gonna leave Europe and RoTW to fight for scraps. Japan and NA are probably gonna account for 75% of that total.

Given this number, NA will probably see 500k - 750k as that's a pretty standard launch allocation, especially off season for a risk adverse Nintendo. One would assume Japan will see the lion's share as that's by far their biggest potential market and home of most developer support (Wasn't 3DS moving well over a million/month in it's heyday there?). I have no idea what the combined totality of EU usually sees in terms of sales and allocations.
 
Why would you not get it if you placed a pre-order?
Ask the many posters on GAF who pre-ordered it multiple times at different outlets, only to cancel at the last second.
That's choosing not to get it. Your post reads like you're worried existing orders can't be filled.
Sounds like they are gonna leave Europe and RoTW to fight for scraps. Japan and NA are probably gonna account for 75% of that total.
Their last several worldwide launches, first quarter shipments. NA consistently gets the most, but Japan has been last 2 out of 3.
Wii_EU

3DS_EU

WiiU_EU
 
For what it's worth, I think the Ghibli-esque visuals and voice-acting do have some chance of inspiring some movement in sales there. Dunno how much though.

It'll do better than it would otherwise due to being the only major launch title. I think Twilight Princess sales in JP are an appropriate comparison.
 

iHaunter

Member
Might hit 4 million. But I doubt it will go more than that.

Everyone that wants one will get it, but I feel like it'll be the Wii U all over again with the lack of games. Nintendo's beetle-headed understanding of what the consumers want is going to cost them two life cycles of consoles.

Where's Pokemon Snap using Wii U functionality? Or a new Pokemon Stadium? Etc. There are so many more games that could be in the works. They really should be pushing the Pokemon company for their consoles...
 
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