Support NeoGAF

[calico]

"So what I've been told about the Sony "retention remains at a high level" comment is not that it's about overall population, but that it refers to what we saw in that Alinea data in March, about how those who are into the game are *really* into it with very high gameplay hours."

I don't recall retention ever being used this way. Regardless, if true it suggests DAU may be significantly lower than previously assumed.

 

[falconhoof]

"So what I've been told about the Sony "retention remains at a high level" comment is not that it's about overall population, but that it refers to what we saw in that Alinea data in March, about how those who are into the game are *really* into it with very high gameplay hours."

I don't recall retention ever being used this way. Regardless, if true it suggests DAU may be significantly lower than previously assumed.

Sweats all the way down.

It's sounding like the session length per player is likely really high meaning their DAU is lower than expected. With low earnings too that also makes sense, not many people to sell to.
I've been working my DAU calculation midpoint as being 2 hours per player, I'm now thinking it's higher. Probably pushing DAU down towards 100k. Certainly not nothing, but likely lower than Destiny 2 (I have that about 120K DAU today).

| Game      | Date UTC       | Coverage h | Avg CCU | Peak CCU | Player-hours | DAU range      | DAU midpoint |
| Marathon  | Sat 2026-05-09 | 24.0       | 10,800  | 15,336   | 259,198      | 86,399-207,358 | 129,599      |

 

[Fess]

Paul "Marathon Slayer" Tassi still hard at work fending off morons.

I doubt the player count would be better if nobody talks about it. No joke, without the "It's dying" Tweets on X and the CCU thread here I would've forgot the game even exists.

 

[SnapShot]

Imagine paul tassi's reaction when they announce marathon 2

 

[Antony1992]

Let's be serious guys, the game is dead. 15k concurrent players after 2 months is ridiculous. Bungie has been the worst buyout ever, across different domains (videogame, cinema, etc).

 

[Paasei]

Don't worry guys. Season 2 is coming.

 

[mdkirby]

Let's be serious guys, the game is dead. 15k concurrent players after 2 months is ridiculous. Bungie has been the worst buyout ever, across different domains (videogame, cinema, etc).

It's actually perfectly great numbers that most studios would be envious of. It is however dire numbers for bungie (or any games with the out of control budgets these western AAA gaas often have).

Given the level of detail and size of and complexity of comparably budgeted single player games, I really will never understand how a game with 3 or 4 not large maps and a hand full of character models and practically no story or cutscene can possible remotely cost sums approaching the budget of something like the last of us, Witcher, cyberpunk, or hell even the budget of something like control (40mil) or even expedition33 (10mil)….like wtf

 

[cormack12]

Imagine paul tassi's reaction when they announce marathon 2

We jest, but we all remember how quick Destiny 1 became Destiny 2.

I actually think this is likely.

 

[cormack12]

Imagine paul tassi's reaction when they announce marathon 2

We jest, but we all remember how quick Destiny 1 became Destiny 2.

I actually think this is likely.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I guess they will have to do that regardless, but it doesn't address the apparent concern people have with risking buying and spending money on a game they don't trust to be around long term.

Not an issue. Look at Tarkov, Hunt Showdown, and Grey Zone Warfare launch periods.

 

[Timberwolf25]

I guess they will have to do that regardless, but it doesn't address the apparent concern people have with risking buying and spending money on a game they don't trust to be around long term.

Wouldn't they just get stomped by the sweats?
Coming in against vets that the know the map/strats as a noob even with equal gear will do more to discourage than bring in new players.

The vets would love it, the noobs would hate it.

 

[Moridianae]

Wouldn't they just get stomped by the sweats?
Coming in against vets that the know the map/strats as a noob even with equal gear will do more to discourage than bring in new players.

The vets would love it, the noobs would hate it.

That's why they cannot grow a playerbase unless they do something drastic to make it more appealing to casuals.

The lower the population, if the ones remaining are the most dedicated(or sweaty), it makes the barrier for entry that much harder.

 

[calico]

Not an issue.

The Marathon shills begging Tassi to stop covering the game seem to think people believing the game is dying is a major issue (effectively a self-fulfilling prophecy). It stands to reason that the market viewing the game as dying would negatively impact willingness to invest in it.

Wouldn't they just get stomped by the sweats?
Coming in against vets that the know the map/strats as a noob even with equal gear will do more to discourage than bring in new players.

The vets would love it, the noobs would hate it.

Presumably. Perhaps after how incredibly badly launch has gone, they will now have the sense to listen to more rational voices and add game modes which aren't instantly and totally repellant to new players / players with jobs etc.

Surely at some point by now Sony has entered the room and asked them wtf they are doing.

 

[Timberwolf25]

That's why they cannot grow a playerbase unless they do something drastic to make it more appealing to casuals.

The lower the population, if the ones remaining are the most dedicated(or sweaty), it makes the barrier for entry that much harder.

The time for something drastic was after the beta. It needed a complete art overhaul, but in typical Bungie style, the ignored the feedback.

Going f2p will help, but Gaas games need mtx/dlc purchases to survive. Even the sweats think the art/character design is trash, so good luck making enough revenue to keep the game going banking on selling those.

Adding an additional 100 devs is a hail mary prayer that the CCU will turnaround, but the percentages of that happening is so low that I'm a little stunned that Sony is letting that happen. And as slow as Bungie is developing these days, they probably need til at least S3 to expect any meaningful changes to the game.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

The Marathon shills begging Tassi to stop covering the game seem to think people believing the game is dying is a major issue (effectively a self-fulfilling prophecy). It stands to reason that the market viewing the game as dying would negatively impact willingness to invest in it.

Yet you chopped off my comment about Tarkov, Hunt Showdown, and Grey Zone Warfare launch periods...

 

[rkofan87]

I bet PvE is coming. Sony is clearly not throwing in the towel.

like pve will fix it.

 

[Mengy]

like pve will fix it.

I think a less sweaty mode like PvE could help a lot. It's done wonders for Arc Raiders.

I'm not convinced Bungie will do it though.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

I think a less sweaty mode like PvE could help a lot. It's done wonders for Arc Raiders.

Marathon isn't interesting enough for PVE. They have destiny for that. It's a PVP game and they need to focus on that.

 

[Majima Everywhere System]

Marathon isn't interesting enough for PVE. They have destiny for that. It's a PVP game and they need to focus on that.

If Sony has a heart, which they don't need I would give them 2 years to come up with an SP and arena shooter on the scale of Halo 2. Allow one 6 month delay.

If they can't pull out a winner, then the core is rotten and impair the whole shop.

 

[rkofan87]

Marathon isn't interesting enough for PVE. They have destiny for that. It's a PVP game and they need to focus on that.

Marathon lore is amazing it should have had a single player campaign
but it's too late for that now

 

[zaga]

Let's be serious guys, the game is dead. 15k concurrent players after 2 months is ridiculous. Bungie has been the worst buyout ever, across different domains (videogame, cinema, etc).

Bungie is not even the worst buyout in gaming let alone across different domains

The worst buyout in gaming has got to be Oculus? Facebook spent 2 or 3 billion originally and then a further 80-100 billion

 

[calico]

Yet you chopped off my comment about Tarkov, Hunt Showdown, and Grey Zone Warfare launch periods...

What about those games would make it 'not an issue' for the market to believe Marathon is dying?

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

What about those games would make it 'not an issue' for the market to believe Marathon is dying?

Those titles (along with a myriad of others) suggest gamers don't value long term guarantees over "Looks cool. I'll try it".

There's a reason why year long return periods don't exist in the videogame industry.

 

[Pop]

I think a less sweaty mode like PvE could help a lot. It's done wonders for Arc Raiders.

I'm not convinced Bungie will do it though.

Huge problem with that, most do not want to pay $40 for Marathon. Isn't worth all that

 

[Guilty_AI]

Not an issue. Look at Tarkov, Hunt Showdown, and Grey Zone Warfare launch periods.

Pre-concord era games. We live in a post concord world.

 

[simpatico]

Paul "Marathon Slayer" Tassi still hard at work fending off morons.

Now that is an interesting fanbase. Could Tassi be a long-game deep cover agent of the chuds?...

 

[Mengy]

Marathon isn't interesting enough for PVE. They have destiny for that. It's a PVP game and they need to focus on that.

Well, ideally they could make it more interesting, but yeah...you are probably right!

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Pre-concord era games. We live in a post concord world.

Nope. Grey Zone Warfare just had a big player spike last month.

 

[cormack12]

The main problem is even if Marathon wins back 50% of the players who bought and swerved off. Its still borderline whether thats enough to keep the game going.

I'm not sure there is an option any more. People arent going to be bothered dropping money on this soon when other options drop, and the GTA VI hype starts building.

 

[Mondai]

Still blasting then?

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

The author characterizes the CFO's statement regarding the full impairment of Bungie's fixed assets as the scariest corporate disclosure possible, signifying a dire state for the studio (16:32 - 17:18). By writing down the full amount of fixed assets, Sony is making a near-total declaration of failure, effectively concluding that there is no recoverable value left in Bungie's physical or operational capabilities (17:18 - 18:34).

Furthermore, the decision to preserve only goodwill—an intangible premium—is viewed as a grim signal. In corporate terms, holding onto goodwill while everything else is written off is often the final step before an acquisition is deemed a complete loss (18:45 - 20:31). The author interprets this to mean that Sony has placed Bungie on literal life support, with the studio stripped of its former autonomy and now entirely beholden to Sony's future directives (20:31 - 22:49).


Complete and total humiliation, but we must go deeper!!

 

[Hollywood Hitman]

The main problem is even if Marathon wins back 50% of the players who bought and swerved off. Its still borderline whether thats enough to keep the game going.

I'm not sure there is an option any more. People arent going to be bothered dropping money on this soon when other options drop, and the GTA VI hype starts building.

This all day. This game alone has such a negative connotation about it and nobody is sitting there thinking "if only marathon did...."... Nobody is thinking that

The game released and was a missed opportunity to really p7t bungie back on the map with any shooter but this one and nobody is out there clamoring to get into it when there's so much coming down the pike

 

[Plague Doctor]

3k down week over week.

CCU won't even hit 15k from this point on.

 

[falconhoof]

3k down week over week.

CCU won't even hit 15k from this point on.

I think that's potentially a good assumption. They scraped into 15K this week, and given the continuous fall off, that likely means this time next week there won't be enough players left to hit that mark again.

This time last month their peak was 28K, two weeks ago it was 20K, then 16K, now 15K, so there's a some resistance, but it's not a solid wall.

 

[Hollywood Hitman]

I think that's potentially a good assumption. They scraped into 15K this week, and given the continuous fall off, that likely means this time next week there won't be enough players left to hit that mark again.

This time last month their peak was 28K, two weeks ago it was 20K, then 16K, now 15K, so there's a some resistance, but it's not a solid wall.

But somehow people will still say this is great news

 

[CrustyBritches]

Game has an out-of-bounds glitch that can be used on Cryo to gank another team's loot after they completed the insanely hard map.

 

[Hollywood Hitman]

Game has an out-of-bounds glitch that can be used on Cryo to gank another team's loot after they completed the insanely hard map.

Wow jfc dude I think I'd absolutely fucking burn my street down to the ground if something like that happened to me

 

[CrustyBritches]

Wow jfc dude I think I'd absolutely fucking burn my street down to the ground if something like that happened to me

This is exactly the type of people I imagined as the hardcore player base that lauds this game as a masterpiece. Used an exploit to ruin the other players pinnacle moment for no fuckin reason.

 

[Hollywood Hitman]

This is exactly the type of people I imagined as the hardcore player base that lauds this game as a masterpiece. Used an exploit to ruin the other players pinnacle moment for no fuckin reason.

I wonder how long it'll take for bungie to fix, That type of stuff is just awful... I'd be so pissed if someone did that to me omg

 

[Conflict NZ]

Looks like todays peak is 11616, unless this is the week where US peak finally beats Euro after Cryo closes. That puts it back in line with pre-patch predictions, Marathon's worst day ever and a sub 10K in reach tomorrow.

Once again after a significant change (sponsored perimeter/green) when Thurs-Sat beat previous predictions there were a bunch of people claiming "this is the floor" when each day is still down double digit percentage wise over the previous week. Until we have a single day that isn't Marathon's worst "that day of the week ever" there is no floor.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Looks like todays peak is 11616, unless this is the week where US peak finally beats Euro after Cryo closes. That puts it back in line with pre-patch predictions, Marathon's worst day ever and a sub 10K in reach tomorrow.

Once again after a significant change (sponsored perimeter/green) when Thurs-Sat beat previous predictions there were a bunch of people claiming "this is the floor" when each day is still down double digit percentage wise over the previous week. Until we have a single day that isn't Marathon's worst "that day of the week ever" there is no floor.

Unless a miracle happens and Sunday evening is a better US peak instead of Euro Sunday peaks, huge drop today. -3k vs yesterday when the past Sun vs Sat are about -2k.

If it ends at 11.6k, tomorrow at typical -10% Mon vs Sun lately and it'll peak at about 10.5k tomorrow. But as you said, sub-10k is within reach.

Anytime Marathon has some big tweak, it props up the CCU a few days. Then it craters back to normal. It's like everything they do doesnt sustain CCU bumps more than a handful of days.

I'll do a final recap later tonight as usual.

 

[Conflict NZ]

Anytime Marathon has some big tweak, it props up the CCU a few days. Then it craters back to normal. It's like everything they do doesnt sustain CCU bumps more than a handful of days.

It's interesting because the bumps don't even increase the player count, they just delay some people leaving or temporarily mask the people that have left with people who briefly return to check out the new patches.

This is a paid game, not F2P. The people that put down money to play it aren't even coming back despite that sunk cost. They would rather not play the game than boot it up to see what's different.

Even with Cryo and the mid season patch, not a single day of a week on week increase which is truly astounding. By the time that happens I think we'll be below 10K peaks and it'll be some Hail Mary last day of season event like Solo cryo with sponsored gold kit.

 

[Tams]

 

[falconhoof]

Last Sunday Vs. this Sunday UTC comparison. I'm using the same numbers to generate the DAU, but I'm now thinking that the session length is higher and more likely pushing to a 100K DAU.

| Game      | Date UTC       | Coverage h | Avg CCU | Peak CCU | Player-hours | DAU range      | DAU midpoint |
| Marathon  | Sun 2026-05-03 | 24.0       | 12,194  | 16,473   | 292,665      | 97,555-234,132 | 146,333      |
| Marathon  | Sun 2026-05-10 | 24.0       | 10,174  | 14,395   | 244,181      | 81,394-195,345 | 122,091      |

 

[Pop]

Todays crash is wild

 

[Conflict NZ]

Todays crash is wild

In the last 5 days we've had some pretty significant milestones broken, and not just single milestones but double as it completely skipped one.

Today: First Day Under 12K but also first day under 13K.

Last Wednesday: First day under 10KCCU for 16 hours in a day, and was also first day under 10KCCU for 15 hours in a day as well.

Edit: Is this also the first Sunday Destiny 2 beat a Marathon peak? I haven't been following that comparison closely.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

9 pm completed hour CCU. Peaked reached earlier in the day at 11.6k. A huge new low which was previously 13.2k
All time peak was launch day 88.3k. Today's peak at 11.6k is -76.7k or -87%

Today vs yesterday: 11.6k vs 14.5k (-2.9k or -20%)

Yesterday's low 5.9k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 4.7k, but it'll be much lower. Last Sunday late night drops -70%. So 11.6k less 70% = 3.5k est

Sun vs Sun: 11.6k vs 14.5k (-2.9k or -20%). Similar 14.5k as yesterday. Back to historic changes of -20%

Ratio method to estimate peaks and valleys
Mon-Thur 3.3:1. For example, a peak of 15k will have a low of 4.5k. For Fri/Sat, gamers stay up playing so the ratio is 2.5:1

Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users: 142
Global Top Sellers: 187
Weekly Top Sellers: Unknown. Not on top 100
Top Rated Games: 6,118 (83.76%)

 

[Plague Doctor]

9 pm completed hour CCU. Peaked reached earlier in the day at 11.6k. A huge new low which was previously 13.2k
All time peak was launch day 88.3k. Today's peak at 11.6k is -76.7k or -87%

Today vs yesterday: 11.6k vs 14.5k (-2.9k or -20%)

Yesterday's low 5.9k. If the rate holds, low tonight will be 4.7k, but it'll be much lower. Last Sunday late night drops -70%. So 11.6k less 70% = 3.5k est

Sun vs Sun: 11.6k vs 14.5k (-2.9k or -20%). Similar 14.5k as yesterday. Back to historic changes of -20%

Ratio method to estimate peaks and valleys
Mon-Thur 3.3:1. For example, a peak of 15k will have a low of 4.5k. For Fri/Sat, gamers stay up playing so the ratio is 2.5:1

Steam Rankings
Daily Active Users: 142
Global Top Sellers: 187
Weekly Top Sellers: Unknown. Not on top 100
Top Rated Games: 6,118 (83.76%)

If it goes lower than 3.5k tonight I expect to wake up to many "Is it maintenance day already?" jokes.

Don't let me down, gents.,

 

[StreetsofBeige]

It's interesting because the bumps don't even increase the player count, they just delay some people leaving or temporarily mask the people that have left with people who briefly return to check out the new patches.

This is a paid game, not F2P. The people that put down money to play it aren't even coming back despite that sunk cost. They would rather not play the game than boot it up to see what's different.

Even with Cryo and the mid season patch, not a single day of a week on week increase which is truly astounding. By the time that happens I think we'll be below 10K peaks and it'll be some Hail Mary last day of season event like Solo cryo with sponsored gold kit.

Yup.

The game's best week over week performance % was actually big patch day. Not cryo launch. During big patch day the -20% week over week's reduced a lot to -3% for a few days and then a few low double digit % decreases. But then by the time Monday rolled around to start the next week it was back to about -15% again. And then -20% again. The game has never come close to holding week over week as the best Mondays have been a couple at -14% or -15%.

All these tweaks they do are marginal. I thought cryo launch would be the biggest sustainable bump, but even at +18% for that one day gamers realized it's a combo of hardcore (for people who want to do it), or gamers which were at 56k then (lost over 30k CCU already) already bailed and didnt care. The following week after cryo launch the days were back to -20% week over week.

The latest tweaks with free sponsored shields or same kit loadouts seems to have again got a bit of attention for a handful of days. But already lost its magic. And it makes sense because end of the day it helps out weaker gamers but the core game is still what it is. An extraction game of loot and gear, but by far the closest thing to COD shootouts compared to other extraction games. If people want fast paced shooters they'll play games like COD. Or if they want a game more about collecting gear to survive they'll play a BR game.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

If it goes lower than 3.5k tonight I expect to wake up to many "Is it maintenance day already?" jokes.

Don't let me down, gents.,

Given how steady the week over week decreases are when Monday comes (about -14 to 20% every week except one at -23%), any of us doing these fun projections are already in maintenance mode! Aside from an occasional gameplay tweak that bumps the CCU temporarily for a few days messing up the trend, the attrition rate is so predictable since March as a constant downer with a narrow variance.

Today 11.6k. Tomorrow's estimates. Take your pick or do your own %. You'll probably be off by only +/- a couple hundred CCU no matter which one you do.

At -14% = 10k
At -17% = 9.6k
At -20% = 9.3k