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Alanah Pearce - It's going to get worse

Killer8

Member
The most prescient point being made is the one about a war for your time. And it's the point that is the driver behind people, like me, wanting to see shorter games coming out. Despite the chorus of "gaming is dead" that is echoed on forums, there is still an astounding amount of content - more than any normal person who isn't a NEET or 17 years old can reasonably consume in the limited hours of the day. When developers keep putting out games with 50 hours of content, you're not realistically getting 50 hours of content - you're getting 10-20 before you move onto the next '50 hour' flavor of the week.
 

Kssio_Aug

Member
Edit: Apparently Alanah Pearce picture was AI generated.

Frustrated Austin Powers GIF
 
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mdkirby

Member
games don’t need to cost that much. Even now. Alan wake 2’s budget for instance. Decent length, looked great, all the bells and whistles, was 50mil with 20 mil more on marketing. Some studios just seem to devour millions like it’s candy, others seem to achieve a lot with a lot less. I would bet that with some good ai workflows you could drop Alan wakes budget to 25-30mil. The risk profile then is just so much lower than blowing 200mil on dev.
 

Dr. Claus

Vincit qui se vincit
You guys get so sensitive. Its like you dont even want to discuss things. Just weird. Its not like I was quote tweeting you. I dont get it. Nothing I said is that wild.
I have no sympathy for any consumers unsatisfied in the future. It was all right there at a cheap price and everyone spit on it. Yes I do blame consumers. Enjoy it, this is what you guys wanted. 🤷‍♂️
Only you can somehow make this about defending Microsoft. I really hope they pay you well for the endless shilling/defense you do for them.
 
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Bkdk

Member
It’s time for the western gaming industry to admit the fact that gamers love hot looking girls characters which they avoided and sidelined the most. A lot of these time sinking games she talked about almost all have one common theme- hot girl chars. In Asia, every entertainment medium want you to look the best possible. It’s true for singers, acting, dance, movies, gaming, steaming, social media, cosplay, anime. You don’t look hot enough you’re out! I bet the west is feeling the pressure to adapt now finally, after the hellblade 2 mighty flop this will be even more obvious. Those senua vs. eve design comparisons is going to be juicy.
 

DaGwaphics

Member
I understand where she is coming from as far as the thought process of the studios.

I do question how long that holds though if companies have too many games that land like KtJL. Regardless of how much potential WB thought there could be in that title, I don't see how it is possible that the game generated anywhere near the statistical results of the HP game in terms of profit percentage.
 
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Varteras

Gold Member

Not gonna lie, if you said this was a gif of Destin Legarie from the future after years of stress eating, I'd believe it.

GAF standards are slipping bro.

We used to have an ass thread in the off topic section. That got canned too. Its complete an utter madness. Im appalled.

I refuse to let you down!

EVwhJJiU8AA8TJw.jpg
 
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Cyberpunkd

Member
Key Points
  • She addresses that no studio is safe from being shut down, and that the quality of the games they produce is irrelevant.
  • AAA Singleplayer and Live Services games are both incredibly risky, but taking the risk with Live Service games is preferable because they produce a tremendously larger and continuous monetary gain over Singleplayer games, which is why publishers have continued, and will continue, to make Live Service games, despite recent failures.
  • We have entered a "Time War" where everything is now competing for your time. Social Media, mobile gaming, streaming, movies, shows, etc etc. Many AAA games are being developed with the mindset of keeping you engaged day after day, spending more money, to keep you away from other things that can take your money and attention.
  • Indie Games are not the answer to this problem. Indie game studios shut down all the time, you just don't hear about it like you would a Tango Gameworks or Arkane Studios. It is very difficult for Indie Games to get funded and find a publisher.
  • Great Singleplayer games like BG3, ER, and TotK are not going away. We'll always get them. But they will become more and more the exception to the rule as time goes on.
So I was sitting for a few days on these points and here's my issue with them:

Ad1. "the quality of the games they produce is irrelevant." - this is a bizarre statement pointing out to serious problems with the business model, if true. Does there exist data pointing out to lack of correlation between quality of the game (as reflected in e.g. Metacritic score) and sales? Yes, there will be cases where a mediocre game sold a lot, a great game didn't sell very well - can we say these are"exceptions to the rule"?
Ad2; "but taking the risk with Live Service games is preferable because they produce a tremendously larger and continuous monetary gain over Singleplayer games, which is why publishers have continued, and will continue, to make Live Service games, despite recent failures." - first of all, it's not "they produce", they MIGHT produce if successful i.e. are quality games, have speedy development, constant content being produced, etc. The industry clearly favors the model that if something is not a huge hit you abandon it quickly e.g. Suicide Squad or Redfall. However you have data proving the opposite e.g. FFXIV, Cyberpunk 2077 - even after bad launch as long as you commit to improving the title it will become successful. I am sure fixing the existing title is a fraction of money that goes into developing a new Live Service game from scratch.

This also doesn't take into account smaller SP games, made on smaller budgets. Again (and from PM perspective it's probably the right choice) - top of the industry seems to accept only 5-year-dev-time, $200mln budget development model for SP games e.g. God of War, Last of Us, Ghost of Tsushima, etc.

Ad3. "Many AAA games are being developed with the mindset of keeping you engaged day after day, spending more money, to keep you away from other things that can take your money and attention." - this is exactly the argument on why you shouldn't make new Live Service game your next development - you are trying to compete in incredibly crowded market, with well established actors already. Also - once people get invested in their game of choice they tend to stick with it for years.

Ad4. "It is very difficult for Indie Games to get funded and find a publisher." - yes, because all the major publishers prefer the model described above. It is still however possible to self-fund an indie game and create an innovative gameplay experiences, which is not possible in case of AAA model, thus limiting maximum the risk due to investment involved. The reason why all AAA games feel more or less the same.

Ad5. "Great Singleplayer games like BG3, ER, and TotK are not going away. We'll always get them. But they will become more and more the exception to the rule as time goes on." - this is again a strange statement knowing what we already know about the industry:

- That Live Service landscape is extremely competitive
- That in order to develop a LS game you are in the end betting a studio's future, if you don't succeed (and data points out you won't) studio will get closed and you as a dev will lose your job
- Then why on earth as a talented game designer you would go work for a studio making a Live Service game?
 

SoraNoKuni

Member
I agree with most of what she said but i also don't like how she, on many occasions, says its capitalisms fault.
She is right though, not saying communism or anything radical would be the answer.
Corpocracy and profits above everything is a bad thing for the vast majority of people, BUT! for those who are privileged enough to not even question those things... yeah Capitalism is perfect.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Alanah posted a video talking about the recent Xbox news and how she believes things will get a lot worse in the industry. I think it's pretty informative and sheds a light on the state of the industry right now, and where it's headed:



Key Points
  • She addresses that no studio is safe from being shut down, and that the quality of the games they produce is irrelevant.
  • AAA Singleplayer and Live Services games are both incredibly risky, but taking the risk with Live Service games is preferable because they produce a tremendously larger and continuous monetary gain over Singleplayer games, which is why publishers have continued, and will continue, to make Live Service games, despite recent failures.
  • We have entered a "Time War" where everything is now competing for your time. Social Media, mobile gaming, streaming, movies, shows, etc etc. Many AAA games are being developed with the mindset of keeping you engaged day after day, spending more money, to keep you away from other things that can take your money and attention.
  • Indie Games are not the answer to this problem. Indie game studios shut down all the time, you just don't hear about it like you would a Tango Gameworks or Arkane Studios. It is very difficult for Indie Games to get funded and find a publisher.
  • Great Singleplayer games like BG3, ER, and TotK are not going away. We'll always get them. But they will become more and more the exception to the rule as time goes on.

So where do you sit with this? Do you agree or disagree? This probably comes across as pretty doom and gloom, but I think we'll always have new games come out from a variety of studios that we'll enjoy. But on a whole it does seem like things will continue to get worse and worse. We'll probably see more game studios and beloved IPs get buried, while publishers will continue to produce live service games and push the boundaries on how many ways they can nickel and dime the consumers.


Then the industry will fail within 10 years if she's right about single player games becoming more rare, but Live Service games being the majority. By their very nature Live Services games can't all be successful. There aren't enough gamers in the world to make most of them succeed.
 

Madflavor

Member
Then the industry will fail within 10 years if she's right about single player games becoming more rare, but Live Service games being the majority. By their very nature Live Services games can't all be successful. There aren't enough gamers in the world to make most of them succeed.

I believe she specifically means AAA Singleplayer games, not Singleplayer in general. I do think she’s right on that unfortunately.
 
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