Where is 7.5 million coming from?So 7.5M?
ITT, Nintendo has never defied genre conventions. *Goes back to playing BotW*
Y'all lack vision. They are on fire right now.
Where is 7.5 million coming from?
There's a difference between saying "ARMS is going to prove people wrong and be very successful" and "ARMS will outsell Splatoon 2". Splatoon has proven itself and we have a baseline number for it. It sold almost 5 million on the crappy Wii U install base.
Everyone expects Splatoon 2 to sell even better than Splatoon. Nobody is saying ARMS won't be successful, but to say it will do better than Splatoon 2, which has proven itself very very successfull, is too much I think.
Points taken, but to be fair, I was only saying that ARMS would do "at least" Splatoon 2 numbers. Granted, that is a fucking heavy load given that Splatoon 2 is going to be HUGE, but I think it will. I feel that it has broader potential appeal outside of Japan and it has no competition. That's my hot take, and I might be very wrong.
I thought they said Zelda needed 2 million to break even. Not every game is Zelda and I doubt ARMS has that kind of investment behind it.Nintendo has spoken of Switch titles needing about 2 million sales to break even. They're pushing ARMS hard in marketing and it appears to have the gameplay appeal to back it up plus the accessibility of motion controls.
2 million would definitely be impressive in the context of a new IP in a niche genre, but I expect an impressive performance.
Points taken, but to be fair, I was only saying that ARMS would do "at least" Splatoon 2 numbers. Granted, that is a fucking heavy load given that Splatoon 2 is going to be HUGE, but I think it will match Splatoon. I feel that it has broader potential appeal outside of Japan and it has no competition. That's my hot take, and I might be very wrong.
Edited for clarity
I thought they said Zelda needed 2 million to break even. Not every game is Zelda and I doubt ARMS has that kind of investment behind it.
Just the opposite, they were speaking generally, not about Zelda. It's a common misconception.
My guess is that Zelda actually needs more than 2 million.
That's kind of crazy - ARMS may possibly not do much better than breaking even? Doesn't seem right.
Just the opposite, they were speaking generally, not about Zelda. It's a common misconception.
My guess is that Zelda actually needs more than 2 million.
Does anyone know if this will be 1080p?!
Game's still 900p.spicy minmin
2 million copies sold lifetime would be an amazing result for ARMS. The genre is just too niche otherwise.
AAA development is expensive.
source please. theres no way arms needs to sell 2 million JUST to break even. youre talking at least 50 million (more likely 100 million) in dev costs at that stage. no fucking way nintendo would risk 50 million on a game like arms. no fucking way it costs 50 million to make arms.
Just the opposite, they were speaking generally, not about Zelda. It's a common misconception.
My guess is that Zelda actually needs more than 2 million.
Smash?Yeah I don't see any fighting game ever doing more than that.
Decided to look at amazon sales ratings for ARMS
amazon.co.uk - #280
amazon.com - #299
I wonder when (if) this thing will start getting good pre-order numbers. MK8D was high in the charts from the get go.
Wonder if it will be 720 in Handheld mode, but i guess it should.Funny you should ask. Just pixel counted this screenshot earlier today, out of curiosity.
Game's still 900p.
New EDGE issue pulls no punches
Subscriber edition variant
ARMS is still trying to get its name out there and I believe there's still a lot of confusion or...unimpressedness(???) left over from its lukewarm reception during the initial Switch reveal. Claiming that ARMS will match or exceed Splatoon 2 is probably selling S2 short more than it is overvaluing ARMS.
Ultimately I think word of mouth and tournament footage will continue to trickle out and more minds will change, especially if their messaging is handled well at E3. I hope it does well, since it and Splatoon combined starts to set up a nice trend of Nintendo being more willing to let younger developers forge their own IPs instead of being constantly stuck into following the settings of their predecessors.
Wonder if it will be 720 in Handheld mode, but i guess it should.
I'd say 2 million for ARMS would be a pretty solid number.
I think ARMS ends up selling more than Splatoon 2 in the end, brother.
This really is an advertisement magazine.
while i agree that it will sell the least out of a group that also includes MK and splatoon i dont think it got lukewarm receptions. previews were glowing from the get go and everyone that played it loved it.In the realm of "Nintendo's first-year big three mulitplayer games" being ARMS, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, and Splatoon 2, ARMS is definitely going to sell the least out of the three. Kart goes without saying and Splatoon is apparently cemented as a new and real franchise and already has a lot of its early growing pains out of the way, people are familiar with it and what it is now. ARMS is still trying to get its name out there and I believe there's still a lot of confusion or...unimpressedness(???) left over from its lukewarm reception during the initial Switch reveal. Claiming that ARMS will match or exceed Splatoon 2 is probably selling S2 short more than it is overvaluing ARMS.
Ultimately I think word of mouth and tournament footage will continue to trickle out and more minds will change, especially if their messaging is handled well at E3. I hope it does well, since it and Splatoon combined starts to set up a nice trend of Nintendo being more willing to let younger developers forge their own IPs instead of being constantly stuck into following the settings of their predecessors.
If it's not good, something else, just ask Wonderful 101. That it is already looking really great means there's little to worry about it doing well. If they put out a demo like W101, willing to bet it does better then Splatoon 1, dunno how Spla2n will do.I think the lack of software on Switch will be a major contributing factor for ARMS sales.
It's June and you have an active user base hungry for games numbering in the millions.
What else do they buy?
If it's not good, something else, just ask Wonderful 101. That it is already looking really great means there's little to worry about it doing well. If they put out a demo like W101, willing to bet it does better then Splatoon 1, dunno how Spla2n will do.
No, it's a first party game, but the point is that just because something is on the system, doesn't mean it's gonna sell well. The switch just came out, people can just not buy the system, especially if the amount or quality of games isn't to their liking. Not like snipperclips is doing Zelda numbers.Wonderful 101 is a 3rd party single player game. It's not really comparable to ARMS aside from coming out during a period without many other games around
But let's be honest, a good chunk of the player base will likely go with traditional button controls, especially for serious competition.ARMS is also the game that justifies tge Joy-Cons.
ARMS is also the game that justifies tge Joy-Cons.
That player base is the floor for this game, as the casual and new audience is way more accepting of non standard controls, and will most likely find the play style more engaging than they would SFV. Splatoon proves this.But let's be honest, a good chunk of the player base will likely go with traditional button controls.
while i agree that it will sell the least out of a group that also includes MK and splatoon i dont think it got lukewarm receptions. previews were glowing from the get go and everyone that played it loved it.
But let's be honest, a good chunk of the player base will likely go with traditional button controls, especially for serious competition.
But to be fair, Splatoon's motion controls were more subtle than how ARMS is using motion controls.That player base is the floor for this game, as the casual and new audience is way more accepting of non standard controls, and will most likely find the play style more engaging than they would SFV. Splatoon proves this.
I agree that everyone that played it loved it...but that's still a fairly small segment of the overall buying population. I've said it for months now that the original reveal brought mixed returns (yes here on GAF but also gauging reactions from a lot of the media at-large that didn't immediately get to follow it up with hands-on time) thanks to its placement next to 1 2 Switch and the tremendous focus on detailing the motion controls rather than getting into any of the game's options and depth.
This may all end up moot by the time the game releases, regardless. It's at least similar to Splatoon in that it continues waving away the concerns over lack of options and content (which I did hope/assume it would do). I just happen to think Splatoon 2 will still be bigger overall.
Come on man. Too early to talk about a sequel.Treehouse makes everything look appealing.
This game is releasing at the end of E3.
Treehouse Live + ARMS = $$$
Do the math. It's gonna' be a hit. The core will lap it up on June 16th, word of mouth will spread and BOOM! LEGS
I said it could be a major contributing factor, but not the only one.No, it's a first party game, but the point is that just because something is on the system, doesn't mean it's gonna sell well. The switch just came out, people can just not buy the system, especially if the amount or quality of games isn't to their liking. Not like snipperclips is doing Zelda numbers.
Besides the multiplayer aspect, W101 has had as much marketing done so far. A bigger dedicated direct and a demo a couple weeks before release. Game and Wario didn't tear up the charts either. I'm not saying it can't be a boon to be a big fish in a little pond, but I can't stand the fallacy of no games = auto seller, its just not true. And ARMS has a very different audience and value proposition, so even in November, its going to stand out.I said it could be a major contributing factor, but not the only one.
It's certainly worth pointing out that it won't have much, if any, competition.
The Wonderful 101 came out 10 months after the (very unpopular) system launched. It wasn't a major title developed internally by Nintendo with the marketing push that comes associated. It wasn't multiplayer.. etc. This, plus the launch timing, could give ARMS a sales boost it might not normally have if it was the hyper competitive holiday season.
Besides the multiplayer aspect, W101 has had as much marketing done so far. A bigger dedicated direct and a demo a couple weeks before release. Game and Wario didn't tear up the charts either. I'm not saying it could be a boon to be a big fish in a little pond, but I can't stand the fallacy of no games = auto seller, its just not true. And ARMS has a very different audience and value proposition, so even in November, its going to stand out.
I think the difference is it certainly appears that the Switch userbase is really engaged and energized and looking for software to buy. Wii U was just...cold and limp, especially those first 9 months.
I don't think anyone has here has posted "no games = auto seller."Besides the multiplayer aspect, W101 has had as much marketing done so far. A bigger dedicated direct and a demo a couple weeks before release. Game and Wario didn't tear up the charts either. I'm not saying it can't be a boon to be a big fish in a little pond, but I can't stand the fallacy of no games = auto seller, its just not true. And ARMS has a very different audience and value proposition, so even in November, its going to stand out.