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[Xando]

BERLIN – Support for Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has slumped dramatically in recent weeks, down to single figures in most polls. Its collapse in its popular support follows infighting, a slowing of asylum applications, and a string of controversies.

Today the AfD is polling at 9%, but just seven months ago its popularity peaked at a regional election held in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The party was polling around 15% nationwide and won more than 20% of the vote in the region, finishing ahead of Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The shocking result was the CDU’s worst ever in a state that includes Merkel’s own constituency.

A few days after the election, Merkel addressed the Bundestag during a budget debate. The chancellor told MPs the AfD was more than a challenge to the CDU: "It is a challenge for us all in this House," she said. "If we only look for small advantages over one another – to just give each other a black eye on election day – then those who rely on slogans and simplistic answers will win." She urged MPs to stick to the truth and to make an effort to explain facts: “If we do this, we will win back the most important thing: people's trust," she said.

The weeks leading up to, and following, the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election were dominated by Merkel’s handling of the refugee crisis. The right wing of the CDU, and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU), were clamouring for the introduction of a cap on new arrivals. The CSU leader, Horst Seehofer, even threatened to sue the government on a number of occasions.

But despite the dip in her approval ratings, Merkel did not budge. And Merkel and Seehofer are set to go into September’s general election disagreeing.
The thinking in her inner circle was that a cap would make the immigration debate about numbers, not substance: Someone will always demand a lower cap. For the chancellor, immigration is not about numbers. The choice is between closing yourself up and pretending the challenge doesn’t exist, or working with your neighbours, including in Africa, on its causes.
Responding to far-right demonstrations that had adopted the “Wir sind das Volk!” (We are the people!) slogans of the past, Merkel used a New Year’s address to say: “Today, some people are again shouting on Mondays, ‘Wir sind das Volk!’ But what they really mean is, ‘You don’t belong, because of the colour of your skin, or your religion.’ That’s why I say to all who go to such demonstrations: Don’t follow those who call for this! Too often there is prejudice, coldness, or even hatred in their hearts.”

The language used by politicians matters. The Council of Europe, Europe’s preeminent human rights body, has accused Cameron of inflaming xenophobia and intolerance in the UK through his rhetoric on immigration. The former prime minister used the word "swarm" to describe migrants attempting to come to Britain.

Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, was forced to apologise for making similar remarks.

Tobias Funk of the Standing Conference of the Ministers of Education and Cultural Affairs said: “There is no glossing over it. No pupil leaves school without knowing about the Nazi regime. History and the other subjects dealing with this issue aren’t taught in an abstract way – we have narration, site visits, and films in the curriculum.

“Even literature (in German and foreign languages) provides an opportunity to deal with this issue.”

Crucially, Funk said, “the intent to encourage young people to advocate freedom, democracy, and peace is fundamentally promoted by all school subjects, and in particular by politics and social studies.”

He added: “In many contexts, awareness is created that democracy, being fragile, must be defended enduringly.”

Funk says it is hard to measure the impact of the country’s education system on how people vote. “School education alone cannot prevent right-wing attitudes. We have to take up this challenge in society as a whole.”

Also very interesting comparisons to the UK reaction of Far right populism:

Most studies are in agreement that immigration played a crucial role in Britain’s decision to leave the European Union. By pledging to cut net migration to the tens of thousands, David Cameron boxed himself in politically. After that, the argument about immigration levels - already particularly prominent in Britain’s press - became especially divisive among those who want to see the numbers drop dramatically.
Data published after the EU referendum found that votes aligned more closely with newspaper readership than with party affiliation. Among the dozen experts, MPs, and government officials BuzzFeed News spoke to in Berlin, the widespread belief is that the media has played an important role in shaping the migration debates in both the UK and Germany. “The media were the main culprit [of Brexit],” Axel Schäfer, a deputy chairman of the Social Democratic Party faction of MPs in the Bundestag, told BuzzFeed News.
“If you respond to every issue, including locals ones, with a nationalist message, it is only natural that you end up with nationalism,” the MP added.
A second official went as far as to describe the way the EU is often covered in parts of the British press as being no different to “fake news”.

Recommend reading the whole article. It's very good.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/this-is-how-germany-fought-back-against-far-right-populism

 

[realwords]

Writing my senior thesis on the rise of right-wing populism in Europe over the past couple of years, and it's wild how the momentum changes daily and I have to make edits accordingly.

 

[Toxi]

The thinking in her inner circle was that a cap would make the immigration debate about numbers, not substance: Someone will always demand a lower cap.

This is exactly what happens.

 

[Xater]

Writing my senior thesis on the rise of right-wing populism in Europe over the past couple of years, and it's wild how the momentum changes daily and I have to make edits accordingly.

That sounds fascinating. I would love to read that once it is done.

 

[Angelus Errare]

Tobias Funk of the Standing Conference of the Ministers of Education and Cultural Affairs said: “There is no glossing over it. No pupil leaves school without knowing about the Nazi regime. History and the other subjects dealing with this issue aren’t taught in an abstract way – we have narration, site visits, and films in the curriculum.

If only America did the same thing.

 

[CalamityPixel]

Writing my senior thesis on the rise of right-wing populism in Europe over the past couple of years, and it's wild how the momentum changes daily and I have to make edits accordingly.

Should be a good read

Speaking as a brit, the rise of the right has definitely gone in hand with the medias views on immigration. Especially newspapers. If there would be any vote that promised lower or no immigration, the majority would all be for it.

 

[TangoAlphaLima]

Tobias Funk of the Standing Conference of the Ministers of Education and Cultural Affairs

Spoiler

I know it's missing the e, but this is still amazing.

 

[Garrett Hawke]

Data published after the EU referendum found that votes aligned more closely with newspaper readership than with party affiliation.

Thanks Murdoch for ruining our country. <3

 

[Sulik2]

So Germany fights right wing thought with their education system starting with kids and being able to teach the rise of Nazism. Meanwhile in the USA the education system has been targeted to be destroyed by the GOP for years. That really is the root of the problem in the USA. Millions are specifically raised to be without capacity for critical thought by broken public school systems. Then they believe everything Fox News spews out because they don't know how to think and reason on evidence. Until you fix the education system in the USA its only going to get worse here.

 

[Muffin1611]

If only America did the same thing.

Yeah, really. I didn't really care at the time, but I'm thankful that we had that much lessons about it.

If I remember correctly, we had to read the Anne Frank diary in my 6th year, and had about half a years lessons about the time in my 11th year. Plus a (though non-mandatory) visit in Auschwitz.

Half of my last history exam also was about that era.

How much do you guys in the US learn about it?

 

[hodgy100]

the bloody daily mail and the sun :/

 

[AmFreak]

The main reason the AFD slumped is because the SPD (one of the 2 big parties of germany) nominated Schulz, not because of some "fighting back".
With the nomination the SPD became voteable again to many of the so called protest-voters.
Every poll shows that.

 

[Angelus Errare]

Yeah, really. I didn't really care at the time, but I'm thankful that we had that much lessons about it.

If I remember correctly, we had to read the Anne Frank diary in my 6th year, and had about half a years lessons about the time in my 11th year. Plus a (though non-mandatory) visit in Auschwitz.

Half of my last history exam also was about that era.

How much do you guys in the US learn about it?

Like one/two years of World history in abstract, Germany bad. America good, we kicked Nazi ass.

We general learn a lot more without the fellatio'ing of America as this super awesome can do no wrong country when we hit college. But that's the issue, many people don't go to college thus they never learn anything about either America or the world around it.

Slavery is another subject that's pretty much sugarcoated in US k-12 schools.

 

[gnomed]

Spoiler

I know it's missing the e, but this is still amazing.

Lol same thing came to mind.

 

[Skyball Paint]

As an American, there's little I wouldn't give to have a leader like Angela Merkel right now

 

[jelly]

Worst thing about UK politicians, they follow the media trends and don't speak up like Merkel because they are afraid the papers will turn against them. Even now, May fears them as do many in her party.

 

[Pyrokai]

I hope we can overcome this in America. It's already a little too late as far as a major election goes, but I really hope we all see the error of our ways. Fuck Trump.

 

[Sloane]

The main reason the AFD slumped is because the SPD (one of the 2 big parties of germany) nominated Schulz, not because of some "fighting back".
With the nomination the SPD became voteable again to many of the so called protest-voters.
Every poll shows that.

Eh, that's not entirely true. Of course, getting rid of Gabriel helped the SPD but the AfD would have imploded to some degree no matter what. With the refugee crisis somewhat "gone" (and not turning out to be as bad as some prediced), people realized they don't have much going for them but "muh, immigrants", and there's a whole lot of infighting, too. The AfD couldn't even capitalize from the terror attack in Berlin last year; they were already on the downfall back then.

 

[Extra Sauce]

Writing my senior thesis on the rise of right-wing populism in Europe over the past couple of years, and it's wild how the momentum changes daily and I have to make edits accordingly.

What about a thesis on the acceleration of societal change and the inability of individuals to keep up.

 

[titiklabingapat]

What do you know, calling people for what they are- racist pieces of shits- works.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

Fucking David Cameron. Worst recent PM ever. I wish we had a Merkel here. I think when discussing the far-right in Europe the history books will always talk of the UK as the "country that fell for it".

 

[TheOMan]

What do you know, calling people for what they are- racist pieces of shits- works.

Well, it's that, plus the fact that Germany actually educates their people appropriately on the Nazis.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

Big cities are literally the only place I feel welcome in these days in the UK as a child of immigrants. Don't know if I'm overreacting or not. A ton of alt-right types on r/ukpolitics are posting on it about "demographic change" and "culture" as the reason why they voted Leave. Whether this is indeed representative of many people's views, I cannot say.

 

[PdotMichael]

At the end of the day 65-70% of the population would vote for CDU and SPD.

Even at its "high" the far-right populism was never close of taking anything over.

 

[Uzzy]

Fucking David Cameron. Worst recent PM ever. I wish we had a Merkel here. I think when discussing the far-right in Europe the history books will always talk of the UK as the "country that fell for it".

I've said before that Cameron really fucked up by setting a target for immigration numbers. Not just because it led to a discussion about numbers, and UKIP et al would always want those to be lower, but because the targeted figures could never and were never reached. This lead to the impression that mainstream politicians could never get control over immigration, and only drastic measures could.

 

[oti]

Eh, that's not entirely true. Of course, getting rid of Gabriel helped the SPD but the AfD would have imploded to some degree no matter what. With the refugee crisis somewhat "gone" (and not turning out to be as bad as some prediced), people realized they don't have much going for them but "muh, immigrants", and there's a whole lot of infighting, too. The AfD couldn't even capitalize from the terror attack in Berlin last year; they were already on the downfall back then.

Another factor is that SPD and CDU have clearly different agendas they want to push. A huge part of the far-right's appeal was to say every other party is the same and that they are the only true alternative for "conservative voters" and those who "love their country". SPD has made some steps to the left and CDU some steps to the right. And they both have said they don't want the big coalition again. There's really no need for the AfD anymore.

 

[Xando]

At the end of the day 65-70% of the population would vote for CDU and SPD.

Even at its "high" the far-right populism was never close of taking anything over.

If you know about german politics this is true. Foreign media (especially UK and US) made and still makes them far bigger than they actually were.

We have the luxury of media actually not being complete liars here in germany. I mean BILD has its bad moments but even during the refugee crisis they didn't got down to the level of fuckery a fox news or daily mail has.


Current polls if anyone is interested:

 

[Sunster]

Yeah, really. I didn't really care at the time, but I'm thankful that we had that much lessons about it.

If I remember correctly, we had to read the Anne Frank diary in my 6th year, and had about half a years lessons about the time in my 11th year. Plus a (though non-mandatory) visit in Auschwitz.

Half of my last history exam also was about that era.

How much do you guys in the US learn about it?

We learn quite a bit about it as kids. But there's an unmistakable message that we get alongside a simplified version of the message German students get. "America the good guys,saves the day by helping the weaker good guys (Western Europe). oh. And Russia I guess" A lot of our history in primary school focuses on how good we are. We should not teach kids about things in terms of good guys and bad guys. black and white. We can teach kids about our genocide against Native Americans and our imperialism and the consequences it has had in places like Guam, American Samoa, Philippines, and Hawaii without teaching them we are just bad guys.

 

[Mumei]

If only America did the same thing.

There was a great piece in The Atlantic a few weeks back that talked about this issue of populism and Germany's response to it:

The student uprisings of 1968 were, in Germany, motivated precisely by this sense of guilt for the Holocaust and frustration that the old generation had opted for silence and forgetting, rather than remembrance and atonement.

In 1985, on the 40th anniversary of the end of World War II, German President Richard von Weizsäcker delivered a now-famous address to the German parliament. The speech did more than virtually any other act in the history of postwar Germany to cement citizens’ sense of responsibility for the crimes of the Nazis. In it, Weizsäcker spoke openly about the millions of Jews, Sinti and Roma, homosexuals, and mentally handicapped people murdered by the Nazi regime. He exhorted the young generation to “understand why it is vital to keep alive the memories.” In one passage he boldly proclaimed, “If we for our part sought to forget what has occurred, instead of remembering it, this would not only be inhuman. … We must erect a memorial to thoughts and feelings in our own hearts.”


Over the past decades, Germans have taken Weiszäcker’s entreaties seriously, reaffirming their commitment to understanding and atoning for their past. The national government continues to pay reparations to victims of the Holocaust, a process that began in 1952, when West Germany signed a treaty with Israel. As recently as 2013, Germany pledged to pay an additional 800 million euros to elderly survivors of the Holocaust.

Germany’s commitment to atonement is most obviously and creatively expressed in its passion for monuments. In 1992, for instance, the German artist Gunter Demnig began laying small stones capped with brass in front of buildings where Jews had lived. These stones are engraved with the names of those who had lived there before being deported and murdered by the Nazi regime. In the decades since, tens of thousands of so-called Stolpersteine have been laid; all manufactured by Demnig, but put in place by various people, they are a common sight in most German cities.

The speeches, monuments, and reparations that have defined Germany’s engagement with the Nazi past are not empty gestures or hollow symbols. They’re an expression of Germans’ broad commitment to atoning for past crimes and to preventing similar horrors in the future. A 2015 poll, for instance, found that 75 percent of Germans believed that their country has a “special international role” in preventing atrocities.

Germany’s engagement with its sins marks a radical break with how most states define their nationhood. Though there is no way to atone completely for a crime as malicious and devastating as the Holocaust, the very attempt to do so is what sets Germany apart.

To some extent, each country stands on the wrongs of its past; behind every nationalist myth lies some crime or other. Great Britain has never fully acknowledged the monstrosity of imperialism, which robbed untold wealth from the developing world, murdered millions, and in which Arendt saw the early seeds of fascism. Nor has France ever truly recognized the evil of its own colonial empire or the insidious collaboration of many French people with the Nazis. The United States has never come close to fully acknowledging the role of slavery in building the country, the depravations of Jim Crow, or the Native American genocide upon which the nation was founded.

The connection between these unacknowledged deeds and the furious racism and xenophobia of today’s right wing may be subtle, but it is unmistakable. It was imperial nostalgia that helped convince Britons to break their bonds with Europe. What did Theresa May’s call to a “global Britain” harken back to, if not the lost empire? How else to explain the unusually high support of former French Algerian colonists and their families—so-called pied-noirs—for Le Pen’s National Front? And how else to make sense of the American far right’s own defense of the continued brutalization of minorities, and its affection for totems of racism like the Confederate flag?

All countries have their original sins, but only Germany has fully named its sin and sought expiation for it. If the rest of the world hopes to counter the populist revolution, it might do well to emulate Germany.

If only America did the same thing, indeed.

 

[liquidtmd]

I've said before that Cameron really fucked up by setting a target for immigration numbers. Not just because it led to a discussion about numbers, and UKIP et al would always want those to be lower, but because the targeted figures could never and were never reached. This lead to the impression that mainstream politicians could never get control over immigration, and only drastic measures could.

Correct.

I'm still actually also bewildered as to where he pulled out the numbers and targets they did. They were entirely beyond even optimistic estimates and not rational in the statistical revenue incoming / outgoing migrants generated. At all. But alas it was never about the actual statistics - it was about the image and representation of the migrant 'problem', which again why it was folly to make it a numbers game

 

[AmFreak]

Eh, that's not entirely true. Of course, getting rid of Gabriel helped the SPD but the AfD would have imploded to some degree no matter what. With the refugee crisis somewhat "gone" (and not turning out to be as bad as some prediced), people realized they don't have much going for them but "muh, immigrants", and there's a whole lot of infighting, too. The AfD couldn't even capitalize from the terror attack in Berlin last year; they were already on the downfall back then.

That the AfD eventually would have imploded is not the point.
And that they were in decline after the terror attacks or before that isn't even true.
The decline is exactly congruent to the rise of the SPD, which in turn started with Schulz.

 

[Aikidoka]

My German colleagues weren't really concerned about the far-right populism coming back. The sentiment was pretty much just "Germans know their history". Glad to see they were right.

That's not too say they weren't concerned about the immigration numbers.

 

[Ogodei]

If you know about german politics this is true. Foreign media (especially UK and US) made and still makes them far bigger than they actually were.

We have the luxury of media actually not being complete liars here in germany. I mean BILD has its bad moments but even during the refugee crisis they didn't got down to the level of fuckery a fox news or daily mail has.


Current polls if anyone is interested:

Question is how does CDU get to 50+1 without AfD and without Grand Coalition II: Electric Boogaloo?

 

[Xando]

Question is how does CDU get to 50+1 without AfD and without Grand Coalition II: Electric Boogaloo?

Depending on if FPD gets into the bundestag (it needs 5%) it could be CDU + greens + FDP.
If FDP doesn't get in CDU & greens could be enough for a majority of seeds (You don't necessarily need 51% to get a majority of seets).

IIRC CDU governed with FPD in 2009 and only had 46-47% of the vote.

 

[Frankfurter]

Question is how does CDU get to 50+1 without AfD and without Grand Coalition II: Electric Boogaloo?

It most likely won't. CDU/CSU + FDP + Greens is a possibility, but it's very unlikely overall.
Same is true for SPD, though.