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Deadline: Analysts project that movie studio profits are in for a rough 2017

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kswiston

Member
I thought that this story might be of interest to some here:

http://deadline.com/2017/03/movie-studio-profits-face-more-punishment-2017-1202042934/

Basically, movies are costing more and fewer people are attending the theatre. When they do attend, they are disproportionately spending their cash on Disney's slate.

Movie studios should prepare themselves for ”another round of punishment" this year with ”several big-budget bombs and disappointing performances from mid-budget pictures," Cowen and Co. analyst Doug Creutz warns this morning in his annual analysis of film industry trends.

Although last year's domestic box office improved 2.2%, the long-time critic of Hollywood's business models says that when adjusted for inflation 2016 was ”the fourth worst year at the domestic box office since 2000."

What's more, operating profits dropped by 14.6% in 2016 to $4.18 billion, and Disney accounted for 60.5% of the total. Four studios –Universal/DreamWorks Animation, Lionsgate, Sony, and Paramount — declined more than 40%, with Sony and Paramount ending the calendar year in the red.

And 2017 will be ”at least as difficult," he says. Some 30 releases, one more than in 2016, will have budgets of more than $100 million, including 20 that are either sequels or ”part of ongoing meta-franchises such as Marvel."

The problem? Non-Disney blockbusters generated an average of $128 million at domestic box offices in 2016, down from $176 million in 2015 and $162 million in 2014.

”Overcrowding, and the outsized dominance of Disney, very clearly significantly suppressed big-budget movie performance across the rest of the industry," Creutz says.

On top of that, the international box office for the 100 top grossing U.S. films dropped 1.7% last year to $15.1 billion.
Click to expand...


There's more at the link, including predictions for the performance of individual studios.

For reference, here are the current release slates for the big studios through to the end of 2017:

DISNEY (9 films scheduled for 2017)
Code: 
Beauty and the Beast		3/17/2017
Born in China			4/21/2017
Guardians of the Galaxy 2	5/5/2017
PotC: Dead Men Tell No Tales	5/26/2017
Cars 3				6/16/2017
Untitled Disney Fairy-Tale	7/28/2017
Thor: Ragnarok			11/3/2017
Coco				11/22/2017
Star Wars: The Last Jedi	12/15/2017


WARNER BROS. (18 films scheduled for 2017 - 3 previously released)
Code: 
CHiPs				3/24/2017
Going in Style			4/7/2017
Unforgettable 			4/21/2017
King Arthur			5/12/2017
Everything, Everything		5/19/2017
Wonder Woman			6/2/2017
The House			6/30/2017
Dunkirk				7/21/2017
Annabelle 2			8/11/2017
It				9/8/2017
Ninjago				9/22/2017
Blade Runner 2049		10/6/2017
Geostorm			10/20/2017
Justice League			11/17/2017
Untitled PG-13 Comedy		12/22/2017


UNIVERSAL (15 films scheduled for 2017 - 5 previously released)
Code: 
The Fate of the Furious		4/14/2017
Untitled Blumhouse Horror	4/28/2017
The Mummy (2017)		6/9/2017
Despicable Me 3			6/30/2017
Girls Trip			7/21/2017
American Made			9/29/2017
The Snowman			10/13/2017
Insidious: Chapter 4		10/20/2017
Let It Snow			11/22/2017
Pitch Perfect 3			12/22/2017


FOX (14 films scheduled for 2017 - 2 previously released)
Code: 
The Boss Baby			3/31/2017
Snatched			5/12/2017
Alien: Covenant			5/19/2017
Diary of a Wimpy Kid 4		5/19/2017
Captain Underpants		6/2/2017
War for the Planet of the Apes	7/14/2017
Kingsman The Golden Circle	10/6/2017
The Mountain Between Us		10/20/2017
Red Sparrow			11/10/2017
Murder on the Orient Express	11/22/2017
Ferdinand			12/15/2017
The Greatest Showman on Earth	12/25/2017


PARAMOUNT (10 films scheduled for 2017 - 3 previously released)
Code: 
Ghost in the Shell 		3/31/2017
Baywatch			5/26/2017
Transformers: The Last Knight	6/23/2017
mother!				10/13/2017
2017 Cloverfield Movie		10/27/2017
Daddy's Home 2			11/10/2017
Downsizing			12/22/2017


SONY (17 films scheduled for 2017 - 4 previously released)
Code: 
T2: Trainspotting		3/17/2017
Life (2017)			3/24/2017
Smurfs: The Lost Village	4/7/2017
Rough Night			6/16/2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming		7/7/2017
The Dark Tower			7/28/2017
The Emoji Movie			8/4/2017
Baby Driver			8/11/2017
The Solutrean			9/15/2017
Flatliners (2017)		9/29/2017
The Star			11/10/2017
He's Out There			12/1/2017
Jumanji (2017)			12/22/2017


LIONSGATE (15 films scheduled for 2017 - 5 previously released)
Code: 
Power Rangers (2017)		3/24/2017
How to be a Latin Lover		4/28/2017
3 Idiotas			6/2/2017
All Eyez on Me			6/16/2017
The Big Sick			6/23/2017
The Hitman's Bodyguard		8/18/2017
Granite Mountain		9/22/2017
My Little Pony (2017)		10/6/2017
Saw: Legacy			10/27/2017
Wonder				11/17/2017
 
P

Pai Pai Master

Banned
Makes sense. The overwhelming majority of films I go to see in the theater are Disney owned. Aside from the smaller chain theater stuff like Moonlight and La La Land last year.
 
B

border

Member
How is it that there are movies weeks away from being released that are still "Untitled"?

Is Annabelle 2 actually going to be released to theatres?
 
S

sugarhigh4242

Banned
Hate to be 'that guy', but these movies are garbage. American cinema, even in the indies, is on a downward trajectory. The A24 studio has revived things a bit, but the overall situation is bad. You watch the previews in the theater, and every goddamn movie looks like a videogame.
 
K

kswiston

Member
StaticJam said:
That's usually how every year goes. Lionsgate at least has Power Rangers
Click to expand...

Paramount had a really rough couple of years. This year they at least have Transformers.


The article notes that Universal's operating profits declined 40% last year compared to 2015. I think that has more to do with the fact that all of the stars had aligned on their 2015 release slate than it does with the overall health of their studio output. They don't have anything to replace Jurassic World's $1.7B this year, but I think that they should have a pretty good bump over 2016.
 
M

Mortimer Brewster

Member
Disney, Universal and Fox should be good this year. Paramount will be much better as long as Transformers continues to be a moneymaker and something like Baywatch ends up doing well. Sony remains a dumpster fire of epic proportions and Lionsgate needs to find the next fad they can ride until its run into the ground.
 
B

border

Member
StaticJam said:
That's usually how every year goes. Lionsgate at least has Power Rangers
Click to expand...

Power Rangers seems like a terrible bet to make, especially after so many other 90's revivals have kinda flopped. The anemic performance of TMNT: Out of the Shadows probably does not bode well for Power Rangers.

After the surprise hit of Straight Outta Compton, I think All Eyez On Me might be what makes it a good year for Lionsgate.
 
K

kswiston

Member
border said:
How is it that there are movies weeks away from being released that are still "Untitled"?

Is Annabelle 2 actually going to be released to theatres?
Click to expand...

I just kept what Box Office Mojo had listed. It is possible that some of the untitled films won't actually be released (for instance, I have no idea what the July Disney film would be), but they haven't been officially removed from the schedule yet.
 
D

Dabanton

Member
kswiston said:
Paramount had a really rough couple of years. This year they at least have Transformers.


The article notes that Universal's operating profits declined 40% last year compared to 2015. I think that has more to do with the fact that all of the stars had aligned on their 2015 release slate than it does with the overall health of their studio output. They don't have anything to replace Jurassic World's $1.7B this year, but I think that they should have a pretty good bump over 2016.
Click to expand...

Fast and Furious 8 that should make a pretty penny. 7 made over a billion worldwide.

I also think the Mummy is also going to surprise people.
 
B

BoogieWoogie

Banned
You would think that studios would start getting the picture that making a $100 million dollar shitty movie with "brand recognition" is a way worse move than make 10-20 low budget films by directors who are passionate about what they're doing.

Get Out was made for $4 million bucks and has made 25 times it's budget last I checked.
 
M

Mortimer Brewster

Member
kswiston said:
Paramount had a really rough couple of years. This year they at least have Transformers.


The article notes that Universal's operating profits declined 40% last year compared to 2015. I think that has more to do with the fact that all of the stars had aligned on their 2015 release slate than it does with the overall health of their studio output. They don't have anything to replace Jurassic World's $1.7B this year, but I think that they should have a pretty good bump over 2016.
Click to expand...

Furious, Despicable Me 3 and Pitch Perfect will all make lots of money for Universal. The Mummy is the wildcard that might mean the difference between Universal having a good or great year. If it gets good reviews and word of mouth, the Cruise Missles appeal especially overseas could make it a big hit.


BoogieWoogie said:
You would think that studios would start getting the picture that making a $100 million dollar shitty movie with "brand recognition" is a way worse move than make 10-20 low budget films by directors who are passionate about what they're doing.

Get Out was made for $4 million bucks and has made 25 times it's budget last I checked.
Click to expand...

The movie industry is cyclical as the mega budget blockbusters continue to be a liability aside from the big dogs, the studios will again shift to more moderately budgeted films. Fox has actually stumbled onto with Xmen. Deadpool and Logan were both reasonably budgeted but we'll make films that have made Fox a pretty penny.
 
M

mreddie

Member
Sony, Paramount and Lionsgate banking on 1 film.

Oof. At least Spidey might save Sony but will have to split with Marvel.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
BronsonLee said:
Sony and Lionsgate are screwed.

The rest should be fine.
Click to expand...

Spiderman is going to do at LEAST a billion for sony, come on

mreddie said:
Sony, Paramount and Lionsgate banking on 1 film.

Oof. At least Spidey might save Sony but will have to split with Marvel.
Click to expand...

they're not splitting that with marvel.

Marvel Studios won't pay Sony Pictures for the rights to put Spider-Man in ”Captain America: Civil War," the ”Avengers" franchise or its other superhero films, as part of its new partnership with the studio, according to sources with knowledge of the deal. At the same time, Marvel won't receive a cut of the box office for any of Sony's films that feature Spider-Man. Sony won't receive a percentage of the revenue Disney makes from Marvel's films that have Spider-Man, either.
Click to expand...

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/details-spider-man-appear-in-sony-and-marvel-movies-1201429039/
 
T

trembli0s

Member
There's a ton of garbage on that list so I'm not surprised they could lose money.

Disney, on the other hand, churns out content that may not be top tier every single movie but is consistently good.
 
T

Triggerhappytel

Member
Sony in there with more shitty remakes. Who gives a shit about Flatliners to want a remake from it?! I like the original but it has aged fairly well overall and I really can't see that anyone wants a remake.

Also: Insidious 4 (four!), Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3 and Smurfs 3. Nobody asked for these.
 
S

shintoki

sparkle this bitch
border said:
After the surprise hit of Straight Outta Compton, I think All Eyez On Me might be what makes it a good year for Lionsgate.
Click to expand...

Or it can follow the suit of Notorious and Get Rich or Die Trying was to 8 Mile. Everything aligned with Compton, between the creative team behind it, crowd pleasing moments, and the advertisement was perfect. Also came at a pretty good time where NWA's music got a resurgence.
 
V

Very Berry Sunday

Member
I can't wait for Baby Driver.

I love Edgar Wright's movies: Shaun of the Dead, Hot Fuzz, The World's End

I like the director of the latest Thor movie, but I didn't like the first 2 Thor Movie. What We Do In The Shadows is a great movie.
 
P

Phobophile

A scientist and gentleman in the manner of Batman.
Hollywood just needs to actually try instead of making movies that are nearly indistinguishable from one another
 
L

Lil'DigiOp

Member
BoogieWoogie said:
You would think that studios would start getting the picture that making a $100 million dollar shitty movie with "brand recognition" is a way worse move than make 10-20 low budget films by directors who are passionate about what they're doing.

Get Out was made for $4 million bucks and has made 25 times it's budget last I checked.
Click to expand...

Exactly, Same exact case with Deadpool and Straight Outta Compton..

Its not rocket science, yet they continue to do the same damn thing.

Shit, Game Developers can use this lesson too, Or moreso Publishers.
 
K

kswiston

Member
BoogieWoogie said:
You would think that studios would start getting the picture that making a $100 million dollar shitty movie with "brand recognition" is a way worse move than make 10-20 low budget films by directors who are passionate about what they're doing.

Get Out was made for $4 million bucks and has made 25 times it's budget last I checked.
Click to expand...

They still have to market and distribute those microbudget films. Something like Get Out might have a Production budget of $4M, but when you factor in ads and other distribution costs for a wide release, total costs are likely around $20M or so. Obviously that doesn't matter for a film that makes $150-200M domestic, but most low budget films make nowhere near that amount.
 
D

DeathoftheEndless

Crashing this plane... with no survivors!
First there was The Space Between Us and now there is The Mountain Between Us.

I'm ready for the Public Domain Cinematic Universe with King Arthur and Robin Hood.
 
M

Mortimer Brewster

Member
AnkhWeasel said:
Pray for Dark Tower.
Click to expand...

Stephen King adaptations don't have the greatest box office track record. He has only two adaptations that have crossed 100 million(The Green Mike and 1408) so Sony betting on that is as about as smart as Sony betting $140 million budget before marketing on a Paul Feig film.
 
E

ElFly

Member
Outside of star wars and gotg 2 it is a really weak year for Disney... But everyone else is also having a bad year it seems
 
M

Manmademan

Member
ElFly said:
Outside of star wars and gotg 2 it is a really weak year for Disney... But everyone else is also having a bad year it seems
Click to expand...

Disney also has Thor: Ragnarok. That one I think is going to overperform. Way more hype behind it than Thor 1 or 2.

edit: and BATB is going to be a fucking monster are you crazy
 
B

border

Member
LFMartins86 said:
Why wouldn't it be?
Click to expand...

I guess I completely somehow missed the theatrical release of the first one. I thought it was straight-to-DVD because I never saw or heard anything about it until it popped up on Redbox. Turns out the original make like 90 million dollars -- god knows how, it was such trash.
 
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