i think the PS4 will bounce back in a sense whenever they do a newer bundle. UC4 and COd are probably not gonna cut it. A Horizon bundle should boost salesAh, my sarcasm meter must be broken
I wasn't exactly sure what you were saying in either positive or negative so i was getting clarification.
We know that PS4 is selling less than expected with a Pro bump, and Slim as well is selling less than PS4.
I honestly don't know what impact Switch will inflect onto the marketplace either early next year
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December 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 10th
Weren't there still significant cod blops 3 bundles selling during aug-oct when slim ps4 dropped though
Xbox will crash, how come? Unless the PS4 is packing fire for the mainstream public, I don't think normality will return anytime soon.
Yes, and the Pro pre-order situation also makes the comparison a lot less clear cut than Welfare would like it to be imo.
The fact that in Dec you'll have 4x PS4 SKUs (Slim UC4, Slim COD, Slim LE FF XV, Pro) will also complicate things to know what's really up unless we get some details around the 21st.
We shall see
This appreciation (notice the quotes around "crash" though) is based on what was happening every year so far since 2014.
It seems that, at least until now, the XB1 buyers have been very sensitive to the price going back up, and the relative slow down in "big" exclusives in Q1. #shrug
Welfare
Member
It was a pure slim vs slim comparison.
Ah, my sarcasm meter must be broken
I wasn't exactly sure what you were saying in either positive or negative so i was getting clarification.
We know that PS4 is selling less than expected with a Pro bump, and Slim as well is selling less than PS4.
I honestly don't know what impact Switch will inflect onto the marketplace either early next year
Sony is on pace to hit their 60 million shipped goal at the end of the fiscal year so you might mean according to gaf expectations. Pro is doing exactly what it is suppose to do and one day the pro will hit that sweet price point too and masses will see even more value
Xbox taking January is possible,likely... feb/march... maybe april possibly all sony/Nintendo
The Mad Draklor
Member
Possibly because of the software.
jmaine_ph
Member
So because you expected the Pro to do something that it supposedly didn't do in a month means the sales are disappointing? Didn't PS4 have the better Cyber Monday which is included in this NPD? Didn't Amazon just release a list show the Slim was the best selling bundle of the whole year? That the Pro wasn't to far behind it in ranking?
Not with the new ps4 cod bundle around
Welfare
Member
If the Pro actually had a factor in the PS4 selling less before November then the Pro launch would have made back the gap. Don't know why that is still being used as a way to explain why the XB1 won those months.
Omnistalgic
Member
This is kinda stupid logic IMO. Games/Deals move hardware, I would never say one piece of kit is more desirable than the other. A breakout game can change all of that any time for any hardware manufacture. For example, how many sales could be multiple console owners who already have a PS4. I'm getting a Switch probably in March, doesn't mean majority of my software purchases and game time isn't going to be spent on PS4, but Switch could likely outsell it for a while at launch and months afterwards, it doesn't necessarily mean it's more desirable. Could be many folk's second console, as with X1, as with Pro, as with Scorpio.
Obliterator
Member
I also see very little evidence the majority of Pro purchases weren't just PS4 owners upgrading.
I'm sure some new buyers got on board with the Pro but it's not a large percentage. Thus making the impact on those other months of sales even more negligible of an impact
January through March will certainly be interesting for both consoles.
With PS4, it's hard to say how much momentum they really have at the moment because Q4 is always about price. I'm curious to see how PS4 Slim + Pro does on a normal basis. With Q1 in particular, there's a lot of great Japanese support finally arriving in mass so I wonder if that segment of the PlayStation base already bought a system or if there are some still waiting who will finally jump in.
With Xbox, to some extent I do think they turned a corner for several reasons. First, I have no data to support this but I wonder just how many existing Xbox One owners bought the S because of how much better it is of a system compared to the OG. In other words, out of all the momentum they've gained since summer, how many of those are new players versus existing players? We assumed this would happen with the PS4 Pro but why not with the Xbox One S? I don't think it's beyond reason that there's a passionate segment of the Xbox base that's willing to buy an Xbox One S last year and still get the Scorpio this year.
Second, I'll echo what others have suggested that backwards compatibility may play some role in getting new Xbox owners on board, particularly because it's supposed to carry over some game/achievement progress (is that right?). Third, Gaf likes to makes the bluray player out to be a big deal and while I don't think it really matters in the grand scheme of things, I don't doubt that there are still some people out there who saw that as an added benefit to get the Xbox One S over the PS4 Pro. And finally, Xbox had some big exclusives and marketing for AAA third-party games that may have helped it as well.
In summary, I don't think there's just one reason why Xbox is doing comparatively better at the end of 2016 compared to the months prior -- there could be multiple reasons. What happens over the next couple of months could help explain what we're seeing now though once we get out of the "new" and holiday phase. On the other hand, it'll be interesting to see what affect the wave of Japanese support provides to PS4 hardware levels over the next few months.
With PS4, it's hard to say how much momentum they really have at the moment because Q4 is always about price. I'm curious to see how PS4 Slim + Pro does on a normal basis. With Q1 in particular, there's a lot of great Japanese support finally arriving in mass so I wonder if that segment of the PlayStation base already bought a system or if there are some still waiting who will finally jump in.
With Xbox, to some extent I do think they turned a corner for several reasons. First, I have no data to support this but I wonder just how many existing Xbox One owners bought the S because of how much better it is of a system compared to the OG. In other words, out of all the momentum they've gained since summer, how many of those are new players versus existing players? We assumed this would happen with the PS4 Pro but why not with the Xbox One S? I don't think it's beyond reason that there's a passionate segment of the Xbox base that's willing to buy an Xbox One S last year and still get the Scorpio this year.
Second, I'll echo what others have suggested that backwards compatibility may play some role in getting new Xbox owners on board, particularly because it's supposed to carry over some game/achievement progress (is that right?). Third, Gaf likes to makes the bluray player out to be a big deal and while I don't think it really matters in the grand scheme of things, I don't doubt that there are still some people out there who saw that as an added benefit to get the Xbox One S over the PS4 Pro. And finally, Xbox had some big exclusives and marketing for AAA third-party games that may have helped it as well.
In summary, I don't think there's just one reason why Xbox is doing comparatively better at the end of 2016 compared to the months prior -- there could be multiple reasons. What happens over the next couple of months could help explain what we're seeing now though once we get out of the "new" and holiday phase. On the other hand, it'll be interesting to see what affect the wave of Japanese support provides to PS4 hardware levels over the next few months.
Microsoft also had bundles and some of the highest rated software in the months they one too. While the pro excuse,while not wrong, is a little over used, Microsofts first party titles and 3rd party bundles,are often not mentioned in regards to the xb1s success. Both practices are a little deceitful...
Not calling anybody out though....
Depends on the ratio Slim/ Pros in Nov, and how many of those Pros were ordered outside of Nov (as pre orders).
Say, if 200k sales were Sept/ Oct orders and were done by people who would otherwise have bought Slims (we will never know for a fact, obviously), how does the picture look?
Primethius
Banned
I'll echo some thoughts as to XB1 and agree that January/February will be the true test of it's lasting appeal.
As in how much has the base line actually moved up vs. old owners buying the newer, slimmer box.
I know the UK market is different enough then the US one but looking at the small snippets of info we do have make me hesitate in saying that XB1S increased the baseline so much as to match the PS4 and exceed it assuming the dollar to dollar parity is there in a month like January or February.
As in how much has the base line actually moved up vs. old owners buying the newer, slimmer box.
I know the UK market is different enough then the US one but looking at the small snippets of info we do have make me hesitate in saying that XB1S increased the baseline so much as to match the PS4 and exceed it assuming the dollar to dollar parity is there in a month like January or February.
FinaruDensetsu
Member
I see a lot of people talking about the first quarter of 2017 like it'll be huge for PS4 because of some sort of torrent of software but let's call a spade a spade. There's essentially some extremely niche games coming and an untested new IP. These are unlikely to register as a blip in the big picture of driving console sales.
The Mad Draklor
Member
The bolded is really important because Microsoft did a heck of a job spacing out the bundles/SKUs, which in turn helped maintain a high, consistent baseline. If you look at when they were released, they tend to come out either at the beginning of a month or late in the month. The latter is a pretty effective strategy because not only does it gives the XBO a last moment boost, but it also carries over the momentum to the next month.
ethomaz
Banned
Every January (and early new year) this generation had Xbone having a monstruous drop in sales and PS4 having a more "normal" drop in sales.
Why this year will be different? MS always do better on holidays than rest of the year.
Primethius
Banned
It's not really a test of the PS4 so much as a test of the XB1S.
We've seen PS4 perform in January post holiday season and XB1 fall apart.
If the tides are truly different, we'll see that in January and the months after.
I really doubt that will.
Duxxy3
Member
Biggest January title is RE7, which is being released on everything. Other than that, I don't recall any system movers.
RE 7 will move hardware?
FinaruDensetsu
Member
Yeah... That's what my post said... Thanks for agreeing I guess?
Also people are forgetting about Halo Wars 2 during that same period. As far as software that'll actually drive hardware I think it's pretty even between the two consoles.
Xbox one S didn't exist in previous Januarys.
Duxxy3
Member
More than anything else in January anyhow.
Which i also thought was clever:
Microsoft: heres madden bundle: 2 weeks later heres forza bundle: 2 weeks later heres battlefield 1 bundle: 1.5 weeks later heres gears 4 bundle... it was a pretty effective strategy that sony couldn't compete with.
Primethius
Banned
Halo Wars 2 isn't moving anything. RE7 and For Honor are the big early titles for next year and they probably aren't gonna do much that the normal Feb bump doesn't already do normally.
HW2 is likely gonna have a massive drop from 1 in sales as well.
FinaruDensetsu
Member
Yup. I mean third party software usually drives hardware sales anyway but the first half of 2017 is truly lacking in exclusive games that can really motivate hardware sales.
It's got Halo in the title. That automatically makes it the biggest exclusive title in Q1 2017.
Still, I think will be a marginal effect.
Darth Smurf X
Member
Cyber Monday is counted in December, right? Therefore, I believe PS4 takes December.
I can't predict January or February, but I believe PS4 takes March. Horizon is the game everyone is looking forward to.
I can't predict January or February, but I believe PS4 takes March. Horizon is the game everyone is looking forward to.
Im positive that Gran Turismo Sport and Persona 5 will move units and they are not extremely niche by any way, add Horizon and other titles like Kindom Hearths that surely draw attention
Because every year can change? It's still wise to keep expectations in check though.
Isnt halo wars 2 like the ultimate niche title though
Oh, come on.
FinaruDensetsu
Member
P5 is definitely not Q1 and I don't think it'll really move consoles or sell much more than maybe 500k copies in launch month (this is extremely generous already I think). GT sport we only have a vague 2017 release date.
The words "Halo" and "niche" are basically antonyms.
Primethius
Banned
HW1 sold > 1 million at launch.
Suffice to say, HW2 will not remotely be outselling Halo 5 at launch.
Persona 5 isn't moving any hardware.
That said to the person you quoted. Horizon most likely will move hardware. It's going to get a huge marketing push and it's in the casual consumer sphere. People know about it. Add to that there will most likely be a bundle and yea. It'll most hardware.
ethomaz
Banned
Xbone S exists and the console is down yoy... I don't see how it changed anything.
People talks here like XB1S did change the life of Xbox when it is year selling okish.
jmaine_ph
Member
Call it want you want but software is software and will always have he potential to move units. Plus Horizon is many peoples most anticipated game of 2017 and if it reviews well I'm sure it's bound to move even more units than anticipated
That's a bit dismissive. Any game has the potential to sell a system for someone because we all have different interests and not everyone is waiting around for the next big AAA game to convince them to jump in. Even then, it may not be one game but a collection of different experiences that become available that finally push someone over the edge to get a console. This particular slate of niche and AA releases for the first half of 2016 has not happened all generation and I would bet that there's a segment of the market that cares more about these kinds of games than the usual open-world shooters and racers. The question is how big is this audience and do they already have a PS4.
I personally think software spending will be good for this time period but many of that audience already has a PS4.
We'll see. It's a bit short-sighted to think that these kinds of titles don't sell consoles though, whether the sale happens now or whether it happened already in anticipation of these kinds of games.
The Mad Draklor
Member
Yeah, listing all the SKUs and their release dates, we have this:
Aug 2 - 2TB XBO S
Aug 23 - 1TB Madden 17 bundle, 500GB Halo Collection bundle
Sep 27 - 500 Minecraft bundle
Oct 11 - 1TB Gears 4 bundle, 2TB Gears 4 LE bundle
Oct 18 - Battlefield 1 special edition bundle
Oct 21 - 500GB Battlefield 1 bundle
Nov 1 - 500GB Gears 4 deep blue bundle
This was an extremely smart release schedule on Microsoft's part.
Primethius
Banned
It is somewhat odd. I think the data points of the PS4 being down and the XB1 being slightly up post-Slim launch (massive increase initially and the YoY change month to month went down significantly as the months progressed) gets conflated into a sort of distorted picture.
That picture gets muddied up even more so given how massively down both consoles were in November.
Duxxy3
Member
GT:S will absolutely move hardware, especially if it's bundled.
If Horizon is good, I think it will be a slow burn that won't spike hardware sales. It will boost them for a few months though.
Persona 5. It's not a system seller in the west.
FinaruDensetsu
Member
Yes I'm not saying zero consoles will be sold because of the software but my point is they are unlikely to register as anything much more than the regular fluctuations of monthly sales.
The biggest piece of software is Horizon but that's a new IP. Let's take a look at the biggest new IP in recent history, the Last of Us. In its launch month of June 2013 the PS3 was still outsold by the 360 according to NPD.
Undoubtedly some people will buy PS4s for Horizon. But even if it hits a crazy level of quality and mass appeal on the level of TLOU it's unlikely new IP will increase hardware sales greatly.
I know that.. but by in large calling a game, im assuming, he was refering to nioh as niche when the souls based games have done relatively well sales wise, kinda ironic when the rts genre hardly exist on consoles
FinaruDensetsu
Member
I don't think the souls games even sell a mil on a single platform at launch. On top of that this is a souls-like that's new IP. That's the definition of niche.
Saying HW is niche and then bringing up a game like Nioh is kinda strange.
Also I'm not using niche to refer to genre but rather the larger picture of software sales and brand recognition.