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Do you think the Nintendo Switch 2 will surpass the PS5 in sales?
- Thread starter SNG32
- Start date
Pataponpon
Member
Do you mean the current PS5 numbers? That would be close to half of what the first Switch sold, it would be a massive drop but the current economic issues, wars etc etc etc could make it happen somehow, it would still be good numbers, the SW1 was just a beast to pull PS2 numbers in todays age
GoldenEye98
posts news as their odd job
No.
My PS5 estimate is 130-140M. My Switch 2 estimate is ~75M.
My PS5 estimate is 130-140M. My Switch 2 estimate is ~75M.
LordOcidax
Member
Tie… Between 115-125 Million.
Emmy Ator Best
Member
Don't send your job application to Circana
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LordOcidax
Member
Easily… Japan alone is going to do 35M+, US another 35M+, that just two countries.
apple_of_enlightenment
Member
It's the fastest selling console of all time. Its predecessor is set to become the greatest selling console of all time.
What would cause it to not pass PS5 is the real question?
What would cause it to not pass PS5 is the real question?
Tiago Rodrigues
Member
I mean...it depends on a lot of things.
How long will Sony push for the PS5? When is PS6 releasing?
Will there be any price drops?
How big will be the GTAVI push?
How is the world economy evolving over the next few years?
Is Switch 2 going to have the same lifespan as the first console or not?
How long will Sony push for the PS5? When is PS6 releasing?
Will there be any price drops?
How big will be the GTAVI push?
How is the world economy evolving over the next few years?
Is Switch 2 going to have the same lifespan as the first console or not?
Gaiff
SBI’s Resident Gaslighter
Sakura
Member
It doesn't have to do better than the Switch 1 to surpass the PS5.
GoldenEye98
posts news as their odd job
PS5 would have to have a significant drop off for it to only do 100M.
It's at 85M as of Nov 2025 and has been selling 15-20M per year....
Given that PS6 might get delayed/would be expensive I see PS5 having long legs.
Sakura
Member
It's still tracking behind the PS4 and that did like around 115m.
Of course no one knows what will happen in the future. Maybe the PS6 won't come out for another 5 years or Sony will cut the price of the PS5 in half.
But based on how things currently stand I don't see it doing better than the PS4.
Radical_3d
Member
Tiago Rodrigues
Member
How is PS5 only doing 100M if it was at 87M by late September 2025? It will probably be at 93/94M with fall sales alone and 96/97 with Q1 2026 sales lol.
110M is probably how much it will be at in a year from now or March 2027 worst case scenario.
Sakura
Member
It was at 84m at the end of September.
And as I said in my previous post, it has sold less than the PS4 did in the same timeframe, and the PS4 went on to sell about 115m.
If you think it is going to take off this year and sail pass the PS4 then ok, who knows.
But as it stands I think 100~110m is a reasonable prediction.
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GoldenEye98
posts news as their odd job
PS6 is not going to eat into PS5 sales the same way that PS5 did with PS4. It is going to be expensive/delayed.
My guess is that PS5 is at 90M right now. It could very well do 20M this year alone with GTA 6. That's 110M.
15M in 2027...now your at 125M by the end of 2027...and PS6 might still not be anywhere on the horizon.
It's going to have longer legs than PS4....
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Bonfires Down
Gold Member
PS5 should end up in the 120-130M range.
Switch 2 is much harder to predict. My guess is around 120M so slightly below PS5.
Switch 2 is much harder to predict. My guess is around 120M so slightly below PS5.
LordOcidax
Member
Your analysis makes sense, but i think the PS5 is going to have some legs after the PS6 comes out.
LordOcidax
Member
PS5 is already tracking behind the PS4, if Sony kills the PS5 ala PS4… No chances.
TheMule1983
Member
Easily. But even Sony will keep "finding" sales to keep it close.
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
Easily, Nintendo hasn't even started supporting it yet. The Nintendo that supported the switch one should be able to deliver on some amazing content to make the switch 2 blow past the PS5. I bloody hope they do anyway. I bought one with that expectation.
Tiago Rodrigues
Member
Even if it was at 84M. It will be at 90/91M after this fall and 93M at its worst with Jan/Mar sales. You think it will sell only 7M more consoles until it stops production?
Bonfires Down
Gold Member
They are up year on year in Spain and that's what matters
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PS5 could easily increase in price by $200 or so due to RAM/NAND cost increases which would hamper late gen sales quite a bit I imagine. Just the RAM alone is around $240 as of last week and could easily hit $20 per GB, it was around $80 when they increased the price from $450->$500 before all of this.
Loomy
Thinks Microaggressions are Real
It definitely can. Whether it will depends on a bunch of things. Some in Nintendo's control, some not.
That's not going to happen.
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TheGodfather07
Member
PS5: 130,546,654
Switch 2: 130,546,655
Switch 2 wins by 1 unit. Bookmark it!
Switch 2: 130,546,655
Switch 2 wins by 1 unit. Bookmark it!
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Sakura
Member
Sure, but you are kind of just making numbers up.
PS5 did less than 2mil for Nov+Dec in the US which is its biggest market, so I am doubtful that it is at 90m, probably closer to around 88m~.
I don't see it doing 20m this year. I think the GTA6 effect is overexaggerated. Who are these millions of people who are going to buy GTA6 after it comes out, but don't already have a PS5? Especially considering the thing has been getting more expensive as time goes on?
I believe I said 100~110m. Not 100m. So more like 7-17m
Maybe. Kind of impossible to predict though as we have no idea what is going to happen with the PS6 or what the price point will be.
Probably be close.
I think with the rising costs PS5 is gonna have a long tail, either because they delay PS6 or because it comes out and is 8-900 causing people to buy PS5.
Switch 2 on the other hand launched at possibly the worst time economics wise, though that stuff could potentially settle by the time it reaches the second half of its life, resulting in strong longterm sales.
I think with the rising costs PS5 is gonna have a long tail, either because they delay PS6 or because it comes out and is 8-900 causing people to buy PS5.
Switch 2 on the other hand launched at possibly the worst time economics wise, though that stuff could potentially settle by the time it reaches the second half of its life, resulting in strong longterm sales.
ReyBrujo
Member
That is a point. How much of a bump did consoles get when GTAV was released? How sustained was that bump?
Regarding OP question there are a lot of things to consider but I think PS5 will sell slightly more than the PS4 in the end and Switch 2 will sell slightly less than the original one so yes, personally it will beat its lifetime sales.
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They increased the price and decreased the SSD from 1TB to 768GB when their RAM cost increased about 25% from about $8 to $10 per chip in the first half of 2025, now it's 3x that price. Why do you think they'll pass on this cost increase when they didn't with the comparatively tiny 25% increase?
J Required
Banned
No because PlayStation is the bigger brand.
EverydayBeast
ChatShitGPT Alpha 0.001
Switch 2 will get help from Zelda
dragonyeuw
Member
The economic changes since the original Switch launched, or even the conditions the PS5 launched in, are so drastic I don't think anyone can or should confidently predict what the Switch 2 will do in relation to current Playstation offerings. The only thing I can say without much hesitation right now is I doubt either the Switch 2 nor the Ps6 sells close to their predecessors. In the Switch 1's case, the system has sold 155ish million systems by now, the 2 could sell 110m units and still be 'nowhere near' its older brother. And frankly hardware units sold seems more like console war fodder at this point. If any of these companies can find a way to make the same or more profits with less units, ergo less resources/production needed, I'm sure they'd prefer that then reaching some units sold number that fanboys can wave their dicks at.
PeteBull
Gold Member
If ps5 gets long period of gta6 exclusivity(lets not lie to ourselfs, 90% of copies sold on current gen consoles will be on ps5/pr0), then obviously we will see major bump in lifetime sold units of ps5.
If on the other hand gta6 launch gets delayed to 2027, maybe even late 2027 and soon after we get pc/next gen console version, that would reduce potential ps5 sales substantially and indeed make switch2 catch up/surpass it sooner.
If on the other hand gta6 launch gets delayed to 2027, maybe even late 2027 and soon after we get pc/next gen console version, that would reduce potential ps5 sales substantially and indeed make switch2 catch up/surpass it sooner.
Sakura
Member
GTAV came out Sep 2013. While I'm sure the consoles sold more than they would've without it, it's hard to say they got a bump, because hardware was still down YoY. (For October, the month after GTAV came out, the best selling console was the Xbox 360, and it did... 166k units https://www.neogaf.com/threads/npd-...013-up2-3ds-360-pokemon-combined-gtav.715970/ )
That being said, the PS3 was 7 years old and the Xbox 360 8 years old. But the PS5 will be 6 years when GTAVI comes out.
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Loomy
Thinks Microaggressions are Real
Because a $200 price hike across the board would kill the PS5 in North America.
Sony is not going down to Micro Centre and buying RAM off the shelf. I wouldn't be surprised if the last contract they put in for the components (likely last year) locks the price in for them for at least 3 more years. Meaning their component costs are not affected by the month to month swings you're seeing right now.
Can they still increase prices? Sure. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a $50 increase on all SKUs this year. But they're not going to increase the price of PS5s by $200 because that's what current price of those components are.
S0ULZB0URNE
Member
If Nintendo improves SW2 's lineup, it will.
yurinka
Member
No. I think it will have a record first year but after that its sales will slow down faster than usual and will end selling less than PS5 (I expect it to sell around 150M, or maybe even more) and maybe even PS4 (around 120M) too.
Some reasons of why I think Switch 2 will be considerably less popular than Switch 1:
Some reasons of why I think Switch 2 will be considerably less popular than Switch 1:
- No longer the best/most powerful portable to play home console games
- Almost all the relevant WiiU/3DS/Wii games already were rehashed in Switch 1, so not a lot left to rehash in Switch 2
- Increased visual fidelity in this generation will cause longer development time for Nintendo teams making new games, as also happened in home console generations. Meaning each team will make less games this generation
- No longer the cheapest hardware option
- Many casuals who got Switch 1 won't see the point on upgrading
- PS5 in following years will increase its popularity due to death of Xbox consoles and growth via non-Japanese Asia, PC, movies/tv shows and mobile, and may get a portable version
- Once Xbox console dies, most games that were Xbox exclusive or were available in Xbox and PS but not in Switch will now be PS console exclusives
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